2:00PM Water Cooler 1/4/2024 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Chook Track of the Day

Nice Cuckoo-Dove, Varirata Nationwide Park Central, Papua New Guinea. A chook calling. Elevation: 486 m.”

Politics

“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in actual fact a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

The Constitutional Order

“Proof that the President is an “Officer of the USA” for Functions of Part 3 of the Fourteenth Modification” [James Heilpern and Michael T. Worley, SSRN]. From the Summary: “Half I critiques Blackman and Tillman’s article [at NC here] and using its arguments within the Colorado litigation. In Half II, we reply to those arguments as a textual matter, finally concluding that . In Half III and IV, we then flip to the that means of the phrase on the time of the ratification of the Fourteenth Modification. In Half III, we focus on and ensure that historic information together with the textual content, legislative historical past and ratification debates of the Fourteenth Modification, the legislative historical past of the Fifteenth Modification, and fashionable sources similar to up to date newspapers display that elected officers might be ‘officers of the USA.’ Half IV then discusses .” • If that is in actual fact dispositive, that knocks out one huge argument on the anti-Part Three facet.

“The Supreme Court docket is predicted to find out whether or not Trump can hold operating for president. Right here’s why” [Associated Press]. • This can be a moderately fair-minded abstract of the problems at play. Value a learn!

* * *

“Might a Trump Win Put His Operating Mate in Workplace?” [The New Yorker]. Wild stuff! “What if Trump wins the election and Congress declines to take away his disqualification [under Section Three for insurrection]? The likelihood that Trump can’t maintain workplace till Congress votes to let him is the centerpiece of the amicus temporary, additionally filed on Wednesday, on behalf of the Nationwide Republican Senatorial Committee and its chair, Senator Steve Daines, Republican of Montana. Authored by Noel Francisco, Trump’s former Solicitor Basic, and different revered conservative legal professionals of the Supreme Court docket bar, the temporary states that, ‘even when the Colorado Supreme Court docket have been appropriate that President Trump can’t take workplace on Inauguration Day,” he’s nonetheless permitted to run ‘and likewise search removing of any alleged disqualification [the ‘disability’ of Section Three] from Congress if obligatory [which takes a two-thirds vote from each House].’ What occurs within the meantime, in accordance with the N.R.S.C., is specified within the Twentieth Modification, which Trump’s petition acknowledges solely in passing: ‘if the President elect shall have didn’t qualify, then the Vice President elect shall act as President till a President shall have certified.’… That suggests that , probably all through the four-year time period. … That Trump’s former Solicitor Basic, Senate Republicans, and outstanding, extremely credentialed, conservative legal professionals are foregrounding a situation whereby Trump’s operating mate acts because the President on Day One invitations, wittingly or not, a Republican insurgency that would assert Trump’s disqualification solely after his operating mate rides Trump’s reputation to electoral victory and successfully turns into President-in-waiting.” • So Trump responds by selecting who as insurance coverage? Absolutely not Haley or DeSantis. How about RFK Jr.? Kidding! I believe….

“It’s not simply Trump: Democrats are transferring to bar Republicans from ballots nationwide” [Jonathan Turley, New York Post]. “As the selections disqualifying former President Donald Trump from the 2024 election work their method by means of the courts, a brand new submitting in Pennsylvania seeks the identical ‘poll cleaning’ by barring Republican Rep. Scott Perry…. Former congressional candidate Gene Stilp, who’s made headlines by burning MAGA flags with swastikas outdoors courthouses, filed the problem…. However what’s chilling is what number of assist such efforts, together with Democratic officeholders from Maine’s secretary of state to dozens of members of Congress. Rep. Invoice Pascrell (D-NJ) sought to bar 126 members of Congress below the identical principle for difficult the election earlier than Jan. 6, 2021. Related laws from Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) to disqualify members bought 63 co-sponsors, all Democrats, together with New York Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jamaal Bowman and Ritchie Torres and ‘Squad’ members Ilhan Omar of Minnesota and Rashida Tlaib of Michigan…. The grounds have been just about an identical to these of Stilp. He accuses Perry of supporting challenges to Biden’s election and opposing its certification. In fact, he ignores Democratic members who sought to dam certification of Republican presidents below the exact same regulation with no factual or authorized foundation.” • For instance:

Individuals who ought to be IMMEDIATELY disqualified from workplace pursuant to Sec. 3 of the 14th Am:

Gaetz
Inexperienced
Boebert
Perry
Jordan
Cruz
Hawley
Johnson
Tuberville
Grassley
Perry
Goemert
Brooks

— Pam Keith, Esq. (@PamKeithFL) January 3, 2024

Capitol Seizure

“One assault, two interpretations: Biden and Trump each make the Jan. 6 riot a political rallying cry” [Associated Press]. “Biden’s marketing campaign additionally introduced an promoting push beginning Saturday with a spot centering on the Capitol assault. Within the advert, Biden says, ‘There’s one thing harmful taking place in America.’ ‘There’s an extremist motion that doesn’t share the fundamental beliefs of ,’ Biden says as photos from the rebel seem. ‘All of us are being requested proper now, what is going to we do to take care of .’ His marketing campaign is spending $500,000 to run the 60-second advert on nationwide tv information and on native night information in TV markets in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, in addition to shorter variations on digital platforms.” • $500,000 just isn’t very a lot. And I’ve gotta say, I’ve bought a tough time reconciling the social gathering of the Censorship Industrial Advanced with democracy, not to mention “ours.” Right here’s the advert:

Right here’s the ultimate body. I don’t suppose “DEMOCRACY” is in Gotham, however that fussy look is bound Obama 2008:

Dudes, that marketing campaign was 2024 – 2008 = 16 years in the past. That’s a very long time.

2024

Lower than a 12 months to go!

* * *

“Trump legal professionals search to carry Jack Smith in contempt of courtroom in 2020 election case” [Axios]. “Former President Trump’s authorized staff on Thursday filed a movement arguing that particular counsel Jack Smith ought to be held in contempt of courtroom for allegedly violating a keep order within the federal 2020 election case. Trump’s staff is arguing that Smith and his staff continued to submit courtroom filings after Decide Tanya Chutkan ordered a pause to proceedings within the case.” • We haven’t heard from any authorized beagles but, so I’m alone right here. Right here is the docket; right here is Trump’s movement for a keep; right here is Chutkan granting it. Trump: “President Donald J. Trump respectfully submits this movement for an order implementing the automated keep of all district courtroom proceedings….” Chutkan: “the courtroom hereby STAYS the deadlines and proceedings scheduled by its Pretrial Order, as amended.” What’s a “continuing”? Authorized Info Institute: “A judicial continuing is any continuing over which a decide presides. The exact definition of judicial continuing varies relying on the jurisdiction, and should embrace quasi-judicial proceedings.” What Trump is ticked off about is that Prosecutor Jack Smith is continuous to make filings. Is submitting a doc with the clerk of the courtroom a “judicial continuing”? IANAL, however I’m doubtful. Maybe a reader who truly is aware of what they’re speaking about can weigh in!

“Trump shores up new wave of congressional assist forward of Iowa caucuses” [Washington Examiner]. “The previous president boasts greater than 100 endorsements and counting within the Home and Senate as a result of he “by no means stops working the telephones,” in accordance with senior Trump adviser Jason Miller…. The polls, during which Trump has expanded his lead and maintained the assist of the vast majority of Republicans, are driving members to make their transfer, [GOP strategist John Feehery] mentioned.”

“Georgia’s Lieutenant Governor Will Be Investigated within the Trump Case. However by Whom?” [New York Times]. “Because the indictment of former President Donald J. Trump and 18 of his allies final summer time on election interference prices in Georgia, a fragile query has gone unanswered: Would legal prices even be coming for Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, a longtime Trump supporter and one of the bold politicians within the Southern swing state? Mr. Jones was one of many 16 Republicans who acted as faux electors for Mr. Trump in Georgia in an effort to overturn his 2020 defeat. Three of them are charged with felonies, together with violating the state racketeering regulation. However in 2022, a decide blocked the Fulton County district legal professional who led the investigation, Fani T. Willis, from creating a case towards Mr. Jones, citing a battle of curiosity as a result of she had headlined a fund-raiser for his Democratic rival within the lieutenant governor’s race. It’s now as much as a state company referred to as the Prosecuting Attorneys’ Council of Georgia to discover a particular prosecutor to analyze Mr. Jones, who has denied any wrongdoing. The top of the company, Peter J. Skandalakis, has for months mentioned little in regards to the choice course of.” • Holy moley, Georgia politics. What a tangle!

“Trump Touts But ANOTHER Useless-Finish 2020 Election Fraud Report” [The Daily Beast]. “Trump wrote proudly that the report is “totally verified, many of the data was gotten from Authorities Sources, Tapes, and different Public Data, and compiled by probably the most extremely certified Election Specialists within the Nation.’” • Right here’s a replica of the report, which not less than is written in a sober model (I say “copy” as a result of this one is undated and unsigned. No authors (!). I’ve to say, although, that the after studying in regards to the bucket of snakes that’s Georgia politics, I want I had time to undergo that part, if solely to debunk it. As far as I can inform, this isn’t coated wherever however the Day by day Beast.

* * *

“Joe unplugged: Biden fundraisers conflict with US script, please donors” [Reuters]. “As president, Joe Biden has relied closely on Teleprompters and pre-written scripts for his public speeches, a principally disciplined strategy that’s been in sharp distinction to his many years of free-wheeling, typically less-than-diplomatic remarks…. Biden’s open-mic disclosures are clashing with the White Home system constructed to maintain him on script. The feedback typically baffle, rankle, or fear his aides, who’re pressured to clarify or contradict them later. They usually battle to shift consideration again to the administration’s message of the day, or clarify why Biden’s feedback are seemingly at odds with official U.S. coverage. As Biden himself has acknowledged, his candor can typically trigger issues. ‘Nobody ever doubts I imply what I say,’ Biden advised donors final 12 months. ‘The issue is I typically say all that I imply.’” • However right here’s an instance:

Biden additionally advised donors on the identical fundraiser that he advised Netanyahu his authorities wanted “to vary,” and he had mentioned prior to now that “I don’t agree with a rattling factor you need to say.” As Biden warmed as much as the subject, reporters have been requested to go away the room by Biden’s aides, however declined to take action… The feedback on Israel immediately grew to become a prime information story of the day, , who was pleading with Republicans in Congress to approve extra funding to repel Russia’s invasion.

However wouldn’t that be precisely what Biden needed?

* * *

“Christie says Haley ‘knew precisely what she was doing’ in Civil Warfare remarks” [The Hill]. “‘She’s sensible and he or she is aware of higher. And she or he didn’t say it as a result of she’s a racist. As a result of she’s not … The explanation she did it’s simply as unhealthy, if not worse, and may make all people involved about her candidacy: She did it as a result of she’s unwilling to offend anybody by telling the reality,’ Christie mentioned within the remarks supplied by a spokesperson. Christie’s remarks continued: ‘If she is unwilling to face up and say that slavery is what precipitated the Civil Warfare as a result of she’s afraid of offending constituents in another a part of the nation, if she’s afraid to say that Donald Trump is unfit as a result of she’s afraid of offending individuals who assist Donald Trump, and since perhaps she harbors at the back of her thoughts being vice chairman or being secretary of State and since she received’t deny it, we’ve to consider that she’s prepared to do it … What’s going to occur when she has to face up towards forces in our personal social gathering who need to drag this nation deeper and deeper into anger and division and exhaustion?’” • Christie’s not incorrect!

* * *

What in regards to the poll line in Utah?

Los Angeles – we will probably be holding a really particular city corridor “To Liberate All Folks In every single place” on Sunday, January seventh from 12PM to 3PM. This salon model dialog will absorb place within the historic #LeimertPark, that includes numerous highly effective femme voices of coloration as invited… pic.twitter.com/ZdrjQpTdEZ

— Cornel West (@CornelWest) January 3, 2024

* * *

“The Battle for Normie Ridge” [John Halpin, The Liberal Patriot]. “The true contested battle for the presidency lies amongst a combined group of much less engaged People who fall into two fundamental classes of what are sometimes referred to as “normie voters”: individuals who dislike politics, don’t care a lot for both Biden or Trump, maintain mainstream views, and simply need secure and safe lives for his or her households with out lots of drama. A few of these voters are nonetheless deciding and others are contemplating whether or not to vote in any respect. One department of normie People at the moment leans extra Democratic, and is made up principally of college-educated, white, suburban voters who don’t like excessive politics and candidates of any sort, who assist abortion rights as a authorized matter, and who typically place a premium on quality-of-life points round crime, faculties, and the economic system. The opposite broad group of normie People leans extra Republican and is made up of working-class voters and not using a 4-year diploma (principally white however more and more black and Hispanic) who don’t like social lecturing and bizarre views from elites, who stay pinched from the lingering results of inflation and stagnant wages, and who additionally fear about crime however are most involved about immigration and the chaos on the southern border. The issue for Biden and Trump is that neither one among these normie voter teams alone will probably be sufficient to tug out an Electoral Faculty victory in a handful of states.” • Someway “stagnant wages” aren’t a “high quality of life” situation. That’s our Democrats!

“Need to Perceive 2024? Take a look at 1948.” [Nate Cohn, New York Times]. “There was a interval of financial unrest that bears a placing resemblance to as we speak: the aftermath of World Warfare II, when People have been close to nice prosperity but discovered themselves annoyed by the economic system and their president…. However within the period of contemporary financial knowledge, Harry Truman was the one president apart from Joe Biden to supervise an economic system with inflation over 7 % whereas unemployment stayed below 4 % and G.D.P. development stored climbing. Voters weren’t overjoyed then, both. As a substitute, they noticed Mr. Truman as incompetent, feared one other despair and doubted their financial future, although they have been on the daybreak of postwar financial prosperity. The supply of postwar inflation was basically just like post-pandemic inflation. The top of wartime rationing unleashed years of pent-up client demand …. The Chilly Warfare, civil rights, Israel and different home points mixed to place extraordinary political strain on an more and more fractured Democratic coalition… In the long run, Mr. Truman received in maybe probably the most celebrated comeback in American electoral historical past, together with the long-lasting ‘Dewey Beats Truman’ headline and {photograph}.”

Republican Funhouse

“We Sat Down With the Conservative Mastermind Behind Claudine Homosexual’s Ouster” [Politico]. “However this actually was a staff effort that concerned three main factors of leverage. First was the narrative leverage, and this was performed primarily by me, Christopher Brunet and Aaron Sibarium. Second was the monetary leverage, which was led by Invoice Ackman and different Harvard donors. And eventually, there was the political leverage which was actually led by Congresswoman Elise Stefanik’s masterful efficiency with Claudine Homosexual at her hearings. Once you put these three components collectively — narrative, monetary and political strain — and also you squeeze onerous sufficient, you see the outcomes that we bought as we speak, which was the resignation of America’s strongest tutorial chief…. However I knew that as a way to obtain my goal, we needed to get the narrative into the left-wing media. However the left-wing uniformly ignored the story for 10 days and tried to bury it, so I engaged in a sort of a considerate and substantive marketing campaign of shaming and bullying my colleagues on the left to take significantly the story of probably the most vital tutorial corruption scandal in Harvard’s historical past…. As soon as my place — which started on the fitting — grew to become the dominant place throughout the center-left, I knew that it was only a matter of time earlier than we have been going to achieve success…. I’ve run the identical playbook on important race principle, on gender ideology, on DEI paperwork. In the interim, given the construction of our establishments, it is a common technique that may be utilized by the fitting to most points.” And: “I labored on important race principle for a really very long time earlier than it yielded fruit, however this Claudine Homosexual story has proven that we will drive main, paradigm-shifting victories over a compressed timeframe. I’d like to interact in additional experimentation on how we will cycle up a few of these campaigns in a short time.” • Very attention-grabbing and properly price a learn. In fact, this confuses liberals and the left, and liberals have certainly, as Rufo factors out, grown “complacent, lazy, entitled and ripe for disruption.”

“One other Home Republican plans early exit from Congress” [Axios]. “Rep. Invoice Johnson (R-Ohio) is planning an earlier-than-expected departure this month to turn into president of Youngstown State College…. Johnson is a member of the centrist Republican Governance Group, the pragmatist Principal Avenue Caucus and the bipartisan Drawback Solvers Caucus…. Republicans will probably be down to simply 219 seats to Democrats’ 213 as soon as Johnson leaves.”

Democrats en Déshabillé

“How Greg Abbott Compelled Democrats to Change” [Newsweek]. “Texas Governor Greg Abbott has reshaped the U.S. political panorama on immigration by busing migrants from Texas to Democratic-led sanctuary cities. Abbott, a Republican, in 2022 started busing migrants from the U.S.-Mexico border to sanctuary cities that shield undocumented immigrants from deportation, amid an inflow of migrants arriving to the southern border. There have been greater than 2.4 million encounters on the U.S.-Mexico border throughout the 2023 fiscal 12 months, up from roughly 1.7 million in 2021, in accordance with knowledge from U.S. Customs and Border Safety (CBP)….. Mona Kleinberg, assistant professor at Queens Faculty of the Metropolis College of New York, advised Newsweek that Abbott has put Democrats in a ‘lose-lose’ state of affairs by convincing a ‘notoriously immigrant-friendly metropolis that immigration is a burden.’” Hmm. Was is Abbott who did the convincing? Extra: “She warned that Abbott’s success doesn’t bode properly for Democrats in 2024, as immigration stays a hot-button situation. Biden should supply a ‘optimistic counter-narrative on immigration’ or danger backing Republicans’ stance, Kleinberg mentioned.” Kamala’s in control of that, so what’s the problem? Extra: “‘In the event that they undertake an anti-immigrant stance just like the Republicans, they may also alienate the voters who vote Democratic as a result of Democrats have traditionally been extra pleasant—or let’s say—much less hostile, towards immigrants than the Republicans. So it’s a lose-lose state of affairs until Democrats can current coverage options that embrace optimistic messaging on migration.’” • Being a “sanctuary metropolis” is all very properly, till someone takes you up on the supply.

“Blue states open 2024 election 12 months with migrant disaster escalating” [Politico]. “Texas has additionally sidestepped new guidelines for sending migrants to Chicago, which has seen greater than 26,000 asylum seekers arrive since August 2022. At 1 a.m. on Sunday, a Boeing 777 from San Antonio dropped off 350 asylum seekers to the airport in Rockford, about 90 miles west of Chicago. Eight buses chartered by Abbott’s administration then dropped off the migrants to surrounding suburbs. The brand new arrivals took trains and different modes of transportation from there to make their approach to the touchdown zone in downtown Chicago, in accordance with the town. The transfer follows guidelines handed final month to wonderful bus corporations that don’t observe the drop-off procedures for migrants. They embrace solely delivering the brand new arrivals to the town’s touchdown zone on Mondays by means of Fridays between 8 a.m. and 5 p.m.”

“The FBI-Tainted Whitmer ‘Kidnap Plot’ You’ve Heard Subsequent to Nothing About” [Julie Kelly, RealClearInvestigations]. “On Oct. 8, 2020, Whitmer introduced the surprising arrests of a number of males accused of planning to kidnap and probably assassinate her. The case produced alarming headlines simply weeks earlier than Election Day; Democrats, together with Whitmer, used information of the plot responsible Trump for inciting violence. Joe Biden counseled the FBI for thwarting the kidnapping plan and, in a written assertion issued the identical day, claimed that “there’s a by means of line from President Trump’s canine whistles and tolerance of hate….” Biden continued that line of assault throughout marketing campaign speeches in Michigan, a swing state that voted for Trump in 2016, and one Biden wanted to seize to win the presidency…. [C]ourt paperwork have recast the episode as one thing extra sinister. As a substitute of a heroic effort by the FBI to safeguard the nation from home terrorists, it now seems to have been a broad conspiracy by regulation enforcement to entrap Americans who held unpopular political beliefs…. the operation sound like one thing out of a Hollywood script. It options secretive money payouts; drug- and booze-fueled events; a convicted wife-beating FBI investigator; a profession felon revealed as a longtime FBI asset and later accused of appearing as a ‘double agent’; and a dramatic takedown scene on the finish. Public defenders representing the accused have recognized not less than 12 FBI informants and three undercover FBI brokers managed by FBI officers in quite a few discipline workplaces accountable for framing the boys.” • Fascinating play within the playbook? (I’ve a imprecise reminiscence, and I can’t run it down, that FBI brokers concerned on this entrapment scheme have been additionally lively in January 6. Readers?)

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Trump’s Ultimate Battle Has Begun” [Frank Bruni, New York Times]. “‘I see our political course of pulling away from the place individuals are on the bottom,’ mentioned Danielle Allen, a professor of political philosophy, ethics and public coverage at Harvard who’s an advocate of higher civics training and extra constructive engagement in civic life. ‘The political course of has turn into a sort of theatrical spectacle, and on the bottom, since 2016, we’ve seen this unimaginable development of grass-roots organizations engaged on every kind of civic well being. .’ She famous that in a rising variety of states, there are critical actions to get rid of social gathering primaries, a political reform supposed to counter partisanship and produce extra average, consensus winners.” • Allen’s perspective is definitely distinctive, and welcome, if true. Can readers remark? (Are the “grass-roots organizations” actually simply liberal Democrat NGOs? Or is one thing occurring that’s not making the information?)

#COVID19

“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the deal with given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater stories); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep protected on the market!

Covid is Airborne

A brilliant discussion from Naomi Wu:

I do know that fecal aerosols are an issue, however perhaps the Asian “squat rest room” has one thing going for it:

Utilizing a public restroom and not using a masks is probably going one of the dangerous issues an individual can do 🧵 pic.twitter.com/Y5OHJ1yP5Q

— The fed up Chef (@TheChefsGardens) January 2, 2024

Maskstravaganza

Anti-masking is an assault on the working class (1):

Why would you proceed to place the workforce in a surgical masks which isn’t designed to forestall transmission by inhalation as a defence towards a illness which is transmitted through the air and enters to contaminate through inhalation? https://t.co/tSZjcpD2HR

— Dr Evonne T Curran NursD 💙🇺🇦 (@EvonneTCurran) January 2, 2024

Anti-masking is an assault on the working class (2):

I attempted to warn you.
I actually tried to warn you.
I advised you that this was going to be the scalpel that they might use to peel the pores and skin again from the bones of all danger mitigation, and also you thought that I used to be exaggerating, however I wasn’t, and the painful deaths that ensue will ravage… https://t.co/a0kjqpuzBX

— tern (@1goodtern) January 3, 2024

An assault that’s hopefully defeated:

Extra proof for my “tradies are masks allies” principle

Wasp removing man arrives, I reply the door masked & undergo my “I’m not sick, I simply have an autoimmune illness & must be cautious” clarification

& he apologises, runs again to his van & comes again in a 3M respirator 🤩 pic.twitter.com/TDHVavm8tj

— Sue J (@SMpwrgr) January 4, 2024

Immune Dysregulation

“The Cough That Doesn’t Finish” [New York Magazine]. “I used to be at a long-awaited panel dialogue at my associates’ non-public dwelling, listening to Senator Kristen Gillibrand talk about paid go away and reproductive rights with ladies’s-health entrepreneurs Priyanka Jain and Alessandra Henderson, once I first heard it: the Cough. Henderson, the founding father of a ladies’s-health firm referred to as Elektra Well being, coughed discreetly from the makeshift stage. Then she coughed once more. It was dry and fast and frequent. From time to time, she would flip her head, increase her arms, and, behind the swishy curtain of her stylish blonde bob, cough. A lady stole over and slipped her a cough drop. Gillibrand had warmed up and was on a tear about TikTok. (Not a fan, by the way in which.) And nonetheless, discreetly however definitely not imperceptibly, coughing. Henderson didn’t in any other case appear sick. She was an influence lady on a panel with a senator, in peak type, however what can I say? Today, you discover the cough. Who amongst us has not walked the streets of New York beset by the scourge of the season, the persistent hacking cough? Perhaps you at the moment have one your self, or the particular person within the subway seat subsequent to you is coughing, otherwise you’ve narrowly escaped catching a chilly out of your throat-clearing cubicle neighbor. Even when you’re been personally spared, you’ve possible seen that the complete metropolis is hacking away proper now, or perhaps on this limitless COVID period, it’s all simply more durable to disregard.” • That is truly a great piece, in that it mentions Covid. (Maybe the “respiratory virus season” body permits this.) There’s even point out of air filters! Nonetheless, there are two lacking items of knowledge. First, immune dysregulation from Covid just isn’t talked about. Why are so many so sick? Second, there’s no point out that Covid transmits asymptomatically; it’s not solely the coughing individuals you need to fear about!

Denial and Cope

Right here is one other wildly speculative clarification for what Jessica Wildfire calls “The Nice Abdication” (Hyperlinks, as we speak). Like yesterday’s considering, this comes from the Neurodivergent (ND) neighborhood, who must do lots of eager about why Neurotypical (NT) individuals behave as they do. Once more, sorry for the small dimension, nevertheless it’s one of the best I can do given my monitor:

An infection

It actually is feasible to keep away from an infection with layered safety. Right here is how one mom protected her child:

Proper earlier than Christmas, my toddler examined optimistic for RSV. Oof. Being sick for Christmas is not any enjoyable.

What we actually did not need is for it to unfold to our child. It is their first RSV season, in order that they’re within the danger group for RSV.

What did we do and the way did we fare? 1/🧵 pic.twitter.com/XqyYgsflNo

— Megan Ben Dor Ruthven (@_mbdr_) January 3, 2024

Sequelae

Lack of government perform within the plane collision in Japan?

ATC transcript launched by Japan’s Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism point out that JL516 had been cleared to land on runway 34R. JA722A had been instructed to carry quick on taxiway C5. This instruction was learn again accurately. https://t.co/Fg4RZLVkwG pic.twitter.com/PIAZCY976F

— Breaking Aviation Information & Movies (@aviationbrk) January 3, 2024

The airplane (JA722A) that pulled out onto the runway learn again the Tower’s directions to “maintain quick” accurately. Then they did the precise reverse, pulled out, and JL516, touchdown, crashed into them.

Origins Debate

“CIA accused of hiding information that analysts took ‘financial incentives’ to bury COVID lab leak discovering” [New York Post]. “An offshoot of the conservative Heritage Basis is suing the Central Intelligence Company, accusing it of withholding information detailing payoffs to analysts to bury findings {that a} lab leak was the almost certainly clarification for the COVID-19 pandemic. The suppose tank’s Oversight Challenge filed a federal lawsuit towards the CIA Dec. 22, alleging the company didn’t adjust to its Freedom of Info Act (FOIA) request about analysts who allegedly “acquired financial incentives to vary their place on the origins of the virus,” in accordance with a replica of the grievance first reported Tuesday by the Day by day Caller.” • Hmm.

Case Knowledge

NOT UPDATED From BioBot wastewater knowledge, December 23:

Lambert right here: Nonetheless going up. As a completely “intestine really feel” tapewatcher, I might anticipate this peak to fulfill or exceed the 2 earlier Biden peaks; in any case, we haven’t actually begun the following bout of vacation journey, or the following rounds of celebrations. Plus college students haven’t come from from faculty, after which returned. So the next peak appears just about “baked in.” And that’s earlier than we get to new variants, like JN.1. The true factor to observe is the slope of the curve. If it begins to go vertical, and if it retains on doing so, then maintain onto your hats.

Regional knowledge:

Regional break up continues.

• FFS:

Verily and CDC are additionally not up to date. So right here we’re within the midst of a peak, and no knowledge. What a public well being debacle.

• CDC additionally has a this “nationwide developments” chart from the Nationwide Wastewater Surveillance system, which is, as we’ve come to anticipate from CDC net designers, utterly separate from its “wastewater surveillance” web page. Anyhow, right here’s from NWSS, although it too ends on December 23:

Evaluating NWSS to Biobot, the peaks and valleys are kind of the identical, however lack Biobot’s regional bifurcation (which begins in December). The chart can also be just a little misleading, in that “all outcomes” could lead on the naive to consider that the chart covers the complete pandemic, when in actual fact NWSS solely goes again to January 2022. Nevertheless, the gray bar to point knowledge topic to backward revision is nice, and Biobot ought to undertake it.

Variants

NOT UPDATED From CDC, December 23:

Lambert right here: JN.1 now dominates. That was quick.

From CDC, December 9:

Lambert right here: I certain hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to services minimize by directors of unwell intent).

CDC: “As of Might 11, genomic surveillance knowledge will probably be reported biweekly, primarily based on the supply of optimistic take a look at specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice per week; semiweekly.” Seems to be like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

Covid Emergency Room Visits

NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, December 30:

Lambert: Return to upward motion. Solely per week’s lag, so this can be our greatest present nationwide, present indicator.

NOTE “Charts and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous 12 months, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not the complete pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “identical to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is suitable for each_{MR SUBLIMINAL I hate these individuals a lot}. Discover additionally that this chart reveals, not less than for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, although CDC is making an attempt to get us to consider that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the present institutional equipment for injections. And naturally, we’re not even moving into the standard of the wastewater websites that we’ve as a proxy for Covid an infection general.

Hospitalization

Bellwether New York Metropolis, knowledge as of January 3:

Lambert right here: I nonetheless don’t just like the slope of that curve, and spot we’re approaching earlier peak ranges (granted, not 2020 or 2022, however respectable).

NOT UPDATED Right here’s a unique CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, not less than. December 23:

Shifting forward briskly!

Lambert right here: “Maps, charts, and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Take a look at Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So the place the heck is the replace, CDC?

Positivity

Lambert right here: Discover that for each Walgreens and the Cleveland Clinic, that though the proportion of positives is secure, absolutely the numbers have tremendously elevated; Walgreen’s doubled. This speaks properly of individuals; they’re getting examined earlier than the vacations (and in face of a shit*tstorm barrage of propaganda and peer strain to attenuate, too).

NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, January 2:

1.1%. Up. (It might be attention-grabbing to survey this inhabitants typically; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and large peer strain, went and bought examined anyhow.)

NOT UPDATED From Cleveland Clinic, December 30:

Lambert right here: Proportion plateaued. Absolute numbers steadily growing.

NOT UPDATED From CDC, traveler’s knowledge, December 11:

Turning down.

Down, albeit within the rear view mirror. And listed below are the variants for vacationers, December 4:

BA.2.86 again up, completely dominant. This may be an ideal early warning system, if the warning have been in actual fact early, as an alternative of weeks late, good job, CDC.

Deaths

NOT UPDATED Right here is the New York Occasions, primarily based on CDC knowledge, December 23:

• “Lengthy COVID Has Brought about Hundreds of US Deaths: New CDC Knowledge” [Medscape]. “Whereas COVID has now claimed greater than 1 million lives in the USA alone, these aren’t the one fatalities precipitated not less than partly by the virus… Greater than 5000 People have died from lengthy COVID because the begin of the pandemic, in accordance with new estimates from the CDC… It’s additionally tough to differentiate between what number of deaths associated to the virus finally happen because of lengthy COVID reasonably than acute infections. That’s as a result of it could rely upon a wide range of elements, together with how constantly medical experts observe the CDC pointers, mentioned Ziyad Al-Aly, MD, chief of analysis on the Veterans Affairs, St. Louis Well being Care System and a senior medical epidemiologist at Washington College in St. Louis. ‘Lengthy COVID stays massively underdiagnosed, and dying in individuals with lengthy COVID is misattributed to different issues,’ Al-Aly mentioned.”

Stats Watch

Employment State of affairs: “United States ADP Employment Change” [Trading Economics]. “Personal companies within the US employed 164K employees in December 2023, greater than a downwardly revised 101K in November and beating forecasts of 115K. Leisure and hospitality led the way in which, because the sector added 59K jobs, adopted by training/well being companies (42K), development (24K), monetary actions (18K), and commerce/transportation/utilities (15K). In distinction, job losses have been seen in manufacturing (-13K), data companies (-2K) and pure sources and mining (-2K). ”

Employment State of affairs: “United States Preliminary Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “The variety of People submitting for unemployment advantages sank by 18,000 to 202,000 within the final week of 2023, firmly beneath market expectations of 216,000 to mark the bottom declare rely since October.”

At the moment’s Concern & Greed Index: 77 Excessive Greed (earlier shut: 72 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 78 (Excessive Greed). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Jan 4 at 1:30:16 PM ET.

Zeitgeist Watch

And when streaming fails?

A lot for all our cultural inheritance….

Information of the Wired

“‘Big’ predator worms greater than half a billion years outdated found in North Greenland” (press launch) [University of Bristol]. “The brand new fossil animals have been named Timorebestia, that means ‘terror beasts’ in Latin. Adorned with fins down the edges of their physique, a definite head with lengthy antennae, large jaw constructions inside their mouth and rising to greater than 30cm in size, these have been a few of the largest swimming animals within the Early Cambrian occasions…. ‘Now we have many extra thrilling findings to share within the coming years that can assist present how the earliest animal ecosystems seemed like and developed,’ [Tae Yoon Park from the Korean Polar Research Institute, senior author and field expedition leader] concluded.”

“Fossil proof of photosynthesis will get a billion years older” [Ars Technica]. “New fossils described by a staff on the College of Liège push unambiguous proof of photosynthesis again over a billion years to 1.7 billion years in the past.” • Perhaps some sort reader can translate the remainder!

Contact data for crops: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a examine if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photos of crops. Greens are wonderful! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you need your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it at first of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From TH:

TH writes: “This little fella with exceedingly lengthy antennae is exploring an Alyogyne hakeifolia, (Pink Centered Hibiscus) Naples Island, Lengthy Seaside, CA.”

• Form readers, I nonetheless am not comfy that I’ve sufficient crops within the queue. Snow-covered timber! Icy flowers! The autumn harvest! Autumn leaves! Final 12 months’s wildflowers! Additionally, in fact, honorary crops like fungi and lichen! Algae!

Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not coated by the annual NC fundraiser. So when you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see wherever else, please don’t hesitate to specific your appreciation in tangible type. Bear in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common optimistic suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. Once I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get fearful. Extra tangibly, a continuing trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I think about that trickle when setting fundraising objectives:

Right here is the display screen that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

For those who hate PayPal, you may e-mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I offers you instructions on the right way to ship a examine. Thanks!