2:00PM Water Cooler 10/12/2023 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Fowl Music of the Day

Home Wren (Northern), Walla Walla; Frog Hole, Walla Walla, Washington, United States. “This chook was singing each morning earlier than daybreak, exterior my house.”

Politics

“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in actual fact a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

2024

Time for the Countdown Clock!

* * *

“Many GOP anti-Trumpers are chucking up the sponge” [Axios]. “Win It Again, a political motion committee (PAC) affiliated with the conservative group Membership for Progress, says it burned via $6 million creating 40 anti-Trump messages — none of them efficient, the New York Occasions reported. Republican Accountability PAC — a bunch of former Trump voters devoted to shifting past the previous president — is giving up on the first after spending $1 million on adverts in Iowa. “Now we have stopped spending cash within the main,” the PAC’s chief, Sarah Longwell, informed Reuters…. A lot of the Republican area might be in Las Vegas for the Republican Jewish Coalition on the finish of the month, and later will head to Miami for the third GOP debate.” • Hmm.

* * *

19,335 emails is loads:

These damning numbers additional affirm that there was by no means a wall separating the Workplace of the Vice President and Hunter Biden’s enterprise endeavors.

The truth is, there was in depth commingling between them. https://t.co/nwKpZnR4ng

— America First Authorized (@America1stLegal) October 10, 2023

“Democrats wrestle with the Biden conundrum” [NBC]. “Amid all the information and points on the highest of political minds, there’s one non-versation that continues to dominate: Can Joe Biden do that once more? I name it a ‘non-versation’ as a result of the parents wringing their palms essentially the most about whether or not Biden is as much as the duty of profitable in 2024 are individuals who, in lots of circumstances, have already endorsed him for re-election. Just a few even work instantly for him — and are nonetheless having the identical uneasy feeling as they watch Donald Trump methodically consolidate Republican assist whereas a right-wing data ecosystem turns the Biden model into the Clinton model circa 2016.” Which received’t be that tough, will it. Extra: “In the actual world, concern about Biden’s age is a matter, and the voters are screaming it. Each respected pollster who has requested has discovered greater than 50% of registered Democrats need a main marketing campaign. The numbers stem from a easy truth: A variety of Biden supporters have been by no means enamored with him however noticed him because the most secure approach to eliminate Trump. While you have a look at these numbers, it’s as if Democrats are prepared at hand Biden a gold watch and thank him for beating Trump, making Congress barely extra functioning and increasing NATO — and name it a legacy. So what is going to it take to fireplace up Democrats for Biden? The most effective elixir for him might effectively be a main problem. One of the simplest ways to disprove the age and talent subject is to run an lively marketing campaign, one thing Biden has but to do. This recommendation could also be simpler to present than obtain.” • And value what we paid for it?

“Why Democrats aren’t far forward heading into 2024” [Jonathan Chait, New York Magazine]. “[T]he sample set in that new rebel Republican leaders would seize energy and promise nice conservative victories, solely to search out their troops finally turning on them. John Boehner, Paul Ryan, and now Kevin McCarthy have all succumbed to the sample. (Mockingly, the one Republican Speaker to give up his submit peacefully throughout this era was Dennis Hastert, who later turned out to have sexually abused boys.) A pure consequence of this sample has been to drive Home Republicans to consistently make use of extra excessive strategies: shutting down the federal government, threatening to default on the nationwide debt, impeaching Democrats with or with out proof. McCarthy used all these strategies in opposition to Biden on the behest of his right-wing rivals. After they inevitably failed to supply the anticipated victories, the radicals most popular to eliminate him reasonably than admit that their very own technique was misconceived.” • It’s the Circle of Life….

* * *

“100 days till the Iowa caucuses. What might probably go unsuitable?” [USA Today]. “What might probably go unsuitable? Truly, loads might change. Three months is loads of time for an increasing United Auto Employees strike to take a toll on the financial system, for Ukraine’s fortunes to shift on the battlefield, for courtroom revelations and well being scares, for front-runners to hit turbulence and challengers to achieve momentum. Sufficient time to upend what now appears all however sure. Although the candidates who’re forward at this level usually do find yourself being nominated for president, that doesn’t all the time occur. At this level within the 2008 race, a CNN ballot confirmed former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani main the Republican area as former senator Fred Thompson was fading. On the Democratic aspect, Sen. Hillary Clinton had constructed a 30-point lead that appeared virtually indestructible. However on Election Day, it was her then-distant rival, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, who confronted off in opposition to Arizona Sen. John McCain for the White Home.” • Volatility from the courtroom, abortion, “A slip, a fall, a foul chilly” (Trump’s 77, allow us to not overlook), impeachment, the GOP area. And, in fact, unknown unknowns. Meteor strike, alien touchdown….

* * *

“Three Cheers for RFK Jr.’s Candidacy” [Jeffrey Sachs, The Kennedy Beacon]. “As of at the moment, I’d vote for RFK Jr. over both Joe Biden or Donald Trump. But the fantastic thing about RFK Jr.’s unbiased run is that voters may have greater than a yr to resolve, after listening fastidiously to the candidates. My wager is that the nationwide debate will break strongly in RFK Jr.’s favor.”

“RFK Jr. to Hannity: ‘Do You Need To Discuss About My Positions Or Learn Speaking Factors From The Trump Marketing campaign?’” [RealClearPolitics]. I might virtually just like the man:

KENNEDY: Do you need to speak about my positions?

HANNITY: Sure, sir.

KENNEDY: Or learn these speaking factors from the Trump marketing campaign?

HANNITY: Excuse me. These will not be speaking factors, these are known as Hannity factors. I do my very own analysis.

KENNEDY: Yeah however I noticed that very same checklist revealed this morning by the Trump marketing campaign. It was the very same checklist. And, once more, if you wish to know what my place is on any subject, I’m completely satisfied to speak to you about it.

In an ideal world, I wouldn’t to rely upon RFK Jr.’s phrase, although.

“Crackpot battle! Trump is fearful about RFK Jr. operating for president — and he must be scared” [Amanda Marcotte, Salon]. “[T]he slice of voters Trump and Kennedy may very well be competing over aren’t outlined by political views that map neatly onto ideas like ‘liberal’ or ‘conservative.’ As a substitute, they’re combating over the crank vote: People who find themselves hooked on wolfing down kooky, weird and above all, false data. The QAnon crowd, in different phrases.” • Wow, Marcotte continues to be writing. Wow.

* * *

“Pritzker, scientific leaders announce launch of Chicago biohub named for Mark Zuckerberg, spouse” [ABC7]. “Gov. JB Pritzker and scientific leaders on Thursday introduced the launch of a groundbreaking hub for analysis within the coronary heart of Fulton Market: The Chan Zuckerberg Biohub Chicago.” • Fulton Market? Let’s hope they don’t have a vat spill!

“‘Younger Turks’ host Cenk Uygur declares main bid in opposition to Biden” [Fresno Bee]. “‘The Younger Turks’ founder Cenk Uygur introduced on his present Wednesday that he’ll run for president as a Democrat, instantly difficult President Biden. ‘[Biden] just isn’t going to win,’ Uygur stated through the announcement. ‘It shouldn’t have been me, it ought to have been any individual else, however sadly it was not anybody else. There’s solely 4 months left. We should change course. He has at finest a ten p.c probability of profitable. I’m operating as a proxy. I’m operating to win. However I’m additionally operating as a proxy for some other candidate.’” • Maintain up:

Anyhow, if I have been doing oppo on Cenk, I’d begin with the feedback part on his website, which after I final appeared — I grant, years in the past – was a cesspit of bro ridiculousness.

Republican Funhouse

“Lobbying World: Former EPA official joins American Chemistry Council” [The Hill]. “Ryan “RJ” Jackson will be part of the American Chemistry Council as its new vice chairman of federal affairs. Jackson most lately led authorities and political affairs for the Nationwide Mining Affiliation and beforehand was chief of employees for the Environmental Safety Company. He was additionally employees director for the Senate Atmosphere and Public Works Committee below its former chairman, Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.), who retired on the finish of the final Congress.”

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, plainly persons are truly studying the back-dated submit! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are numerous updates. So I should do this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Social gathering (“the Democrat Social gathering is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated submit, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “stay” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Social gathering is, in actual fact, a tough drawback. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Social gathering is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Social gathering didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” in fact.) Second, all of the working elements of the Social gathering reinforce one another. Go away apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Social gathering (ka-ching, however not solely) these components comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with belongings within the press and the intelligence neighborhood.

Be aware, in fact, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

“Sen. Bob Menendez charged with appearing as international agent for Egypt” [Axios]. “The brand new cost comes after Menendez, the previous chairman of the Senate Overseas Relations Committee, was indicted final month alongside his spouse, Nadine Menendez, in an alleged bribery scheme…. In a superseding indictment Thursday, prosecutors charged Menendez below the Overseas Brokers Registration Act, which requires these engaged on behalf of international governments, firms, and different entities to register with the U.S. Division of Justice….. Menendez conspired along with his spouse and Hana to carry out ‘a collection of acts on behalf of Egypt, together with on behalf of Egyptian navy and intelligence officers,’ the superseding indictment stated.” • Hmm. On level for the Center East mishegoss?

“Slotkin on Tlaib assertion: ‘It shouldn’t be laborious to sentence terrorism’” [The Hill]. • Hilarity ensues; Slotkin is a CIA Democrat.

“Political forces start to maneuver on new California Sen. Butler as she mulls a run” [CNN]. Laphonza Butler, D-NGO. “Butler’s new momentary spokesperson retains offering the identical assertion about how she has not decided but. However Butler is well-known amongst California insiders, with high Democrats within the state telling CNN, ‘She doesn’t do issues that she can’t be profitable at – so my guess is she wouldn’t have put herself on this spot if she didn’t suppose she had a shot at profitable an election.’ Based on CNN’s conversations with almost two dozen officers and operatives deeply concerned within the appointment and the Senate campaigns, they’re all left guessing. That features Gov. Gavin Newsom himself, in keeping with a spokesperson; he doesn’t know what her choice might be, although he has stated publicly that he supplied the appointment to Butler with no strings connected. ‘It’s uncomfortable and peculiar ready this out,’ stated an operative engaged on one of many campaigns who requested to not be named. ‘I simply don’t see how anybody within the subsequent 5 months is ready to mount a marketing campaign that may work.’”

Realignment and Legitimacy

The border. Useful map:

1000’s of migrants in Chicago — a lot of whom have been bused there from Texas — are ready for a spot in one of many metropolis’s overcrowded shelters. Final week, as many as 14 buses arrived in a single day. https://t.co/QuvfrTKa5c

— Axios (@axios) October 11, 2023

#COVID19

“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the deal with given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater studies); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep protected on the market!

Superstar Watch

“Chinese language celebrities’ Covid deaths subvert propaganda push to minimise outbreak” [Financial Times]. Missed this after I posted on Covid and celebrities. From January 2023: “China is mourning a rising variety of public figures misplaced to Covid-19, from lecturers to opera singers, whose deaths have sophisticated the federal government’s efforts to minimise the size of the unfolding outbreak sweeping throughout the nation. Since authorities final month scrapped most restrictions instituted to maintain the virus at bay, coronavirus has rampaged via China’s susceptible inhabitants with unparalleled pace, leaving hospitals inundated with the sick and aged and crematoria overwhelmed with demand…. College students at Tsinghua and Peking universities in Beijing and different tutorial establishments have been tallying deaths amongst retired professors, whereas different web sleuths have counted no less than 16 deaths among the many 1,831 high figures at China’s sciences and engineering academies.” • Utilizing regardless of the Chinese language equal is of GoogleDocs, little doubt, simply as we do.

Censorship and Propaganda

Is it doable these mother and father are utilizing the (pissant, sloppy, and not-at-all lengthy) lockdowns as an excuse?????

Actually eager to know how anybody can ascribe lack of potty coaching to lockdown 3 yrs ago- in spite of everything, potty coaching occurs at house in toddlers, not in class, and is often not a social phenomenon! Somebody please clarify…. https://t.co/luQVhbtcWk

— Dr. Deepti Gurdasani (@dgurdasani1) October 9, 2023

Testing and Monitoring

A phrase from the New York Metropolis Comptroller:

Nice to be feeling higher, testing unfavourable, and again doing the folks’s enterprise in particular person.

Thanks @ICCRonline for a fantastic roundtable on what traders can do to insure #ASeatAtTheTable for staff — so we are able to constructing a extra thriving & inclusive financial system. pic.twitter.com/zazzbxg3Ao

— Brad Lander (@bradlander) October 5, 2023

Champ, that take a look at just isn’t unfavourable. Faint the road is, however it’s there….

An infection

A number of infections as a mark of delight? Toughing it out? Sucking it up?

Reminder that adults contract precise influenza, on common, as soon as each 7 years and colds 1-3 occasions per yr. So having Covid 5+ occasions in 4.5 years is loads to get an acute sickness that knocks you out for days. Even with out accounting for sequelae, this doesn’t appear sustainable https://t.co/Rm6tBGO3xm

— Amanda Hu (@amandalhu) October 8, 2023

Sequelae

“Incident autoimmune ailments in affiliation with a SARS-CoV-2 an infection: A matched cohort examine” [medRxiv]. N = 641,704. From the Summary: “[W}e found a 42.63% higher likelihood of acquiring autoimmunity for patients who had suffered from COVID-19 [confirmed by PCR]. This estimate was related for widespread autoimmune ailments, equivalent to Hashimoto thyroiditis, rheumatoid arthritis, or Sjögren syndrome. The best IRR was noticed for autoimmune illness of the vasculitis group. Sufferers with a extra extreme course of COVID-19 have been at a larger threat for incident autoimmune ailments…. SARS-CoV-2 an infection is related to an elevated threat of growing new-onset autoimmune ailments after the acute section of an infection.

“One thing Terrible”

Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” is likely to be a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. Numerous exceptionally nasty sequelae, almost definitely deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we would add mind harm, together with character adjustments therefrom.

* * *

Elite Maleficence

Intelligence take a look at at IDWeek:

#IDTwitter meet up. So many cool folks in the perfect speciality. ❤️ #IDWeek2023 pic.twitter.com/obG0Vkrctj

— Sidd Kogilwaimath MD (@HIVDocSK) October 12, 2023

Extra like an integrity take a look at. To not preen, however:

2… pleasure of assembly via this platform, each single particular person nonetheless attempting to keep away from Covid, kind, as a bunch, essentially the most compassionate and resilient set of individuals I’ve ever met in my life. These shared qualities will not be a coincidence. The good conceptual mistake that the..

— Conor Browne (@brownecfm) October 11, 2023

Intelligence take a look at in Canadian hockey:

Coach Rick Tocchet is pleased with his gamers for endangering themselves and their followers by enjoying sick:

“He did not actually need to come out, then when he puked in his masks I stated you gotta come out. … It form of hit them, however that is why I am pleased with them. The blokes sucked it up.” https://t.co/XgzLGtpDYt

— Tom Jackman (@frozen) October 12, 2023

A “little little bit of a bug.” I ponder what bug?

Lambert right here: Again to tape-watching mode. It nonetheless appears to be like to me like the present surge has some methods to run, given how wastewater flattened, with the East Coast up. Let’s wait and see.

Case Information

NOT UPDATED From BioBot wastewater knowledge, October 2:

Lambert right here: Leveling out to a excessive plateau wasn’t on my Bingo card! Maybe FL.1.5.1, excessive within the Northeast, has one thing going for it that different variants don’t have?

Regional knowledge:

Curiously, the upswing begins earlier than July 4, which neither accelerates nor retards it.

Critically, what provides, Biobot? 9 days with no replace and no announcement is CDC-level scientific commnication. Is there an issue on the lab? A funding subject? A provide chain debacle? “Covid is over,” so no knowledge? What? Now we’ve the reply–

• “CDC faucets Verily for wastewater surveillance” [Becker’s Hospital Review]. “Verily, the healthcare unit of father or mother firm Alphabet, has received its first CDC contract to assist nationwide wastewater monitoring, the corporate stated Oct. 2. Underneath the deal, Verily will take a look at wastewater samples from as much as 400 websites nationwide for the presence of COVID-19 and mpox. The findings will assist well being departments higher perceive illness tendencies and reply promptly to any outbreaks. Verily and CDC didn’t disclose the worth of the contract, although STAT studies it’s $38M.” Commentary:

Actuality of how monopoly works, extra prefer it. Placing our wastewater knowledge in Google’s palms makes me shudder. First, you recognize they’re going to monetize it. Plus, given “The Twitter Information,” you recognize they’ll censor it. Does anyone actually consider that Google would give us good knowledge on the subsequent pandemic, particularly if the present Administration needed to “forestall panic”? I don’t. And third, why the hell isn’t this a authorities perform?

Lambert right here: Affected person readers, I ought to have noticed the Biobot information earlier, for which I apologize. It does appear, then, that Twitter, even Covid Twitter, has deteriorated; I’d have anticipated to see this from my follows, which embrace Biobot (maybe Elon is flooding my timeline; I don’t know). Which is just too unhealthy, as a result of I don’t see another (aside from restarting the blogosphere). Does any form reader have a spare BlueSky invite?

• Verily’s horrid dashboard, and I needed to click on round for about 5 minutes to get a nationwide view (beneath). Why, it’s virtually like they’re attempting to cover one thing! Be aware the minimization constructed proper into the design:

(The highest, giant portion of the chart is knowledge between the left and proper grey slider bars on the underside half (the timeline of all the pandemic, to which the crimson arrows I drew level.)

• Biobot knowledge v. Verily knowledge:

Variants

NOT UPDATED From CDC, September 30:

Lambert right here: September 30 is tomorrow, however by no means thoughts that. Prime of the leaderboard: EG.5 (“Eris“), with FL.1.15.1, HV.1, and XBB.1.1.16.6 trailing. Nonetheless a Bouillabaisse…

From CDC, September 16:

Lambert right here: I positive hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to amenities reduce by directors of ailing intent).

CDC: “As of Might 11, genomic surveillance knowledge might be reported biweekly, based mostly on the provision of constructive take a look at specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice every week; semiweekly.” Appears to be like like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

Covid Emergency Room Visits

From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, October 7:

Drop coinciding with wastewater drop.

NOTE “Charts and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous yr, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not all the pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “identical to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is acceptable for each_{MR SUBLIMINAL I hate these folks a lot}. Discover additionally that this chart reveals, no less than for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, though CDC is attempting to get us to consider that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the present institutional equipment for injections.

Hospitalization

Bellwether New York Metropolis, knowledge as of October 11:

Nonetheless lowering. (New York state is steadily rising, however it’s New York Metropolis that’s the bellwether.) I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading.

NOT UPDATED Right here’s a distinct CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, no less than. September 30:

Lambert right here: “Maps, charts, and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Take a look at Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So the place the heck is the replace, CDC?

Positivity

NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, October 9:

-1.0%. Nonetheless dropping, although lower than earlier than. (It could be fascinating to survey this inhabitants usually; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and massive peer strain, went and obtained examined anyhow.)

NOT UPDATED From Cleveland Clinic, October 7:

Lambert right here: I do know that is simply Ohio, however the Cleveland Clinic is sweet*, and we’re starved for knowledge, so…. NOTE * Even when hospital an infection management is attempting to kill sufferers by eliminating common masking with N95s.

NOT UPDATED From CDC, traveler’s knowledge, September 18:

Again up once more, albeit within the rear view mirror. And listed here are the variants for vacationers:

Now, BA.2.86 for 2 weeks in a row. Bears watching.

Deaths

NOT UPDATED Iowa COVID-19 Tracker, September 27:

Lambert right here: The WHO knowledge is nugatory, so I changed it with the Iowa Covid Information Tracker. Their technique: “These knowledge have been sourced, by way of the API from the CDC: https://knowledge.cdc.gov/NCHS/Circumstances-Contributing-to-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Stat/hk9y-quqm. This visualization updates on Wednesday evenings. Information are provisional and are adjusted weekly by the CDC.” I can’t appear to get a pop-up that reveals a complete of the three causes (high proper). Readers?

Whole: 1,178,638 – 1,178,490 = 148 (148 * 365 = 54,020 deaths per yr, at the moment’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “dwelling with” Covid (fairly a bit greater than the minimizers would love, although they will speak themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I could need to resolve that is what the powers-that-be contemplate “mission completed” for this explicit tranche of demise and illness). 

Extra Deaths

The Economist, October 12:

Lambert right here: Based mostly on a machine-learning mannequin.

Stats Watch

At present’s Concern & Greed Index: 33 Concern (earlier shut: 31 Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 23 (Excessive Concern). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Oct 11 at 1:42:38 PM ET.

The Conservatory

“Why Rappers Stopped Writing” [Kottke.org]. “Nowadays, as a substitute of writing down lyrics and bringing them to the studio to document, many rappers are utilizing the improvisational “punch-in technique” to craft songs through the recording session.”

Zeitgeist Watch

“The monkey’s obtained the locomotive below management”:

I actually hope so!

Our Famously Free Press

“Washington Publish slashing 240 jobs” [The Hill]. “The Washington Publish says it has plans to dispose of greater than 200 jobs as a value chopping measure after prognostications for on-line readership and subscriptions proved “overly optimistic” heading into 2024…. The Publish is one in all a number of media and tech firms to conduct layoffs and hiring freezes within the face of a tricky advert market, information fatigue and different financial hardships in current months.” • Bullshit fatigue, extra prefer it.

Imperial Collapse Watch

“MBTA eliminates Inexperienced Line extension gradual zones, reopens Union Sq. department early” [Boston Globe]. “To eradicate the Inexperienced Line extension pace restrictions, T officers stated crews needed to widen the space between the rails at a whole lot of factors alongside the tracks…. The T has stated that the Inexperienced Line extension, the primary enlargement of the T’s subway system since 1987 which absolutely opened final yr, ‘has all the time been slender, however someway turned so slender in current months that it was harmful for trains to journey at full pace, prompting greater than a dozen pace restrictions alongside the tracks. Observe consultants say it’s almost unimaginable for observe gauge to slender over such a brief time frame At a MBTA board of administrators assembly final month, the T’s high infrastructure official informed members of the company’s oversight board the Inexperienced Line extension — which was many years and billions of {dollars} within the making — ‘didn’t meet building commonplace.’” • How do you spend a billion {dollars} on rail and never get observe that’s in gauge?

Class Warfare

“Whitehall Research” [Wikipedia (DD)]. “The Whitehall Research investigated social determinants of well being, particularly the heart problems prevalence and mortality charges amongst British civil servants. The preliminary potential cohort examine, the Whitehall I Research, examined over 17,500 male civil servants between the ages of 20 and 64, and was performed over a interval of ten years, starting in 1967. A second cohort examine, the Whitehall II Research,[2] was performed from 1985 to 1988 and examined the well being of 10,308 civil servants aged 35 to 55, of whom two thirds have been males and one third ladies. An extended-term follow-up of examine topics from the primary two phases is ongoing. The research, named after the Whitehall space of London and initially led by Michael Marmot, discovered a powerful affiliation between grade ranges of civil servant employment and mortality charges from a variety of causes: . Males within the lowest grade (messengers, doorkeepers, and so forth.) had a mortality charge thrice greater than that of males within the highest grade (directors).” • So Case-Deaton not so new?

Information of the Wired

“Why Eat Like a Caveman?” [JSTOR]. “A central narrative of the Paleo idea is that people developed for the situations of the Paleolithic period and are unsuited for all times within the trendy world, with its plentiful agricultural and processed meals. Paleo methods name for avoiding grains and sugars and as a substitute consuming principally meat and greens. Many Paleo manuals focus on the food plan in distinctly masculine phrases, throwing round phrases like virile, warrior, and protector. But, as with most diets, the vast majority of practitioners are ladies. Johnson means that the masculine framing may very well be a draw for some ladies who object to typical gendered narratives about meals and well being. Many Paleo ladies assert their want for steak, muscle constructing, and a kind of health that isn’t solely about dropping pounds (although weight reduction and combating the ‘weight problems epidemic’ is an unavoidable a part of Paleo discourse). [Cultural critic Adrienne Rose Johnson] argues that the imaginative and prescient behind Paleo is far larger than simply weight reduction, and even simply particular person well being. Advocates usually paint an image of a pre-agricultural life of various bodily actions, ample leisure, and powerful communities. And a few Paleo dieters transcend their meals decisions in making an attempt to emulate folks from the distant previous. Some keep away from synthetic mild, eat uncooked meat, follow polyamory, and keep away from sporting footwear.” • Sounds innocent sufficient. I had a gentle food plan of espresso, steak with pepper, and crimson wine for a few years. It wasn’t unhealthy, although I didn’t discover any well being advantages. And I saved sporting footwear….

“How you can Learn a Compass” [Field & Stream]. What it says on the tin. Detailed and clear. Conclusion: “Realizing how you can learn a compass is invaluable for all—from adventurers to weekend hikers. It’s a dependable technique for making certain your navigation is correct and your journey protected, whether or not exploring a brand new path or discovering your manner again to civilization. GPS is a good instrument as effectively, however having strong map and compass expertise lets you use a GPS extra effectively.”

Contact data for crops: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a examine in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me pictures of crops. Greens are effective! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! In order for you your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it initially of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From SR:

SR writes: “First fruit of my first bitter melon vine! Bonus: blossoms odor pleasant. Thriving on a extremely popular deck in Northern Virginia.”

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Right here is the display that may seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

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