2:00PM Water Cooler 10/19/2022 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Chook Track of the Day

Volcano Junco, Cerro Buenavista communication towers, San José, Costa Rica. “Calls given as one hen of a pair flew to the opposite, a la pair pleasure calls…” Quick however candy!

Politics

“However what’s authorities itself, however the biggest of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51

“Right here’s meals for thought, had Ahab time to suppose; however Ahab by no means thinks; he solely feels, feels, feels” –Herman Melville, Moby Dick

“The logic of the insult and the logic of scientific classification symbolize the 2 excessive poles of what a classification could also be within the social world.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Biden Administration

EPA on indoor air high quality:

.@EPA is asking for suggestions to design an indoor air high quality program for public buildings to assist scale back #covid19.

That is an space the place we will interact to push for significant change. Tomorrow at 7PM ET/5PM PThttps://t.co/caAvJWNEuw

— Matthew Cortland 👻 (@mattbc) October 18, 2022

A superb thread.

“President Biden Pledges to Codify Roe with Invoice that Goes Far Past Roe” [Jonathan Turley], “The Girls’s Well being Safety Act (WHPA) is routinely described within the media as a “codification of Roe,” repeating the false declare by the White Home and plenty of Democratic sponsors. It’s the truth is what many pro-choice advocates have at all times wished Roe to be however have been unsuccessful in establishing via the courtroom system.” • Turley appears to suppose “It seeks to perform legislatively what couldn’t be completed judicially for many years” is an indictment. In actual fact, it’s the suitable factor to do, which (I assume) is why the Democrats haven’t accomplished it.

“Save Social Safety From its ‘Saviors’” [Stephanie Kelton, The Lens]. “The debates have already began, and I count on them to warmth up after the midterms. Simply suppose again to what occurred after the midterm shellacking in 2010, when a newly-emboldened group of republicans lawmakers joined forces with a gaggle of so-called ‘reasonable democrats’ to push for cuts to Social Safety as a part of a ‘Grand Discount.’ After all, nobody ever comes proper out and says they wish to CUT Social Safety. That might be political suicide. As a substitute, lawmakers—democrats and republicans—describe their positions as well-intentioned and grounded within the harsh actuality of budgetary math. They wish to SAVE Social Safety…. The one conceivable drawback, as I defined final week, is with the best way the enacting laws was written.1 Congress might “repair” Social Safety just by amending that laws to grant the Outdated-Age and Survivor’s Insurance coverage (OASI) and Incapacity Insurance coverage (DI) packages the identical federal backstopping that already ensures program solvency for the Supplemental Medical Insurance coverage (SMI) Belief Fund.”

2022

* * *

“McCarthy’s placing warning sign on GOP and Ukraine help” [WaPo]. “In a brand new interview, although, McCarthy is singing a considerably completely different tune. He says that if Republicans win again Congress, we shouldn’t take with no consideration that the USA will ship additional navy help to Ukraine. ‘I believe individuals are going to be sitting in a recession they usually’re not going to jot down a clean test to Ukraine,’ McCarthy advised Punchbowl Information. ‘They simply received’t do it. … It’s not a free clean test. After which there’s the issues [the Biden administration] shouldn’t be doing domestically. Not doing the border and other people start to weigh that. Ukraine is essential, however on the identical time it could actually’t be the one factor they do, and it could actually’t be a clean test.’ A couple of factors. First: This assertion doesn’t a lot rule out future navy help to Ukraine as counsel it could be extra restricted and tough to acquire. However whether or not that’s as a result of sure Republicans would possibly demand funds offsets or just don’t wish to ship as a lot cash abroad, the sensible impact is a GOP chief warning that Congress might quickly get fairly a bit stingier if his occasion is in cost.” • The article goes on to current a convoluted concept that McCarthy is warning the Democrats to cross what Ukraine wants within the lame duck session (assuming the Republicans win). That is unnecessary to me. “When your enemy’s drowning, throw ’em an anvil.” I simply learn this as yet another manner the Republicans, bless their coronary heart, are asking for my vote.

“2022 Midterm Elections: Democrats Narrowly Lead on the Generic Poll” [Morning Consult]. Bullet factors:

Democrats’ Generic Poll Lead Plateaus: Congressional Democrats lead their Republican counterparts by 3 proportion factors on the generic poll (48% to 45%) amongst probably voters, with one other 7% undecided three weeks from Election Day. The figures have been moderately constant over the previous couple weeks, after Democrats topped out at a 5-point lead in early October.

Biden’s Approval Score Ticks Up: In line with the most recent surveys carried out Oct. 14-16, 46% of probably voters approve of Biden’s job efficiency (up from 44% every week in the past), whereas 53% disapprove (down from 54%).

Democrats Maintain Enthusiasm Edge: For the fifth week in a row, Democratic voters are extra probably than Republicans to say they’re “extraordinarily” or “very” obsessed with voting within the midterm elections, 63% to 58%. The 5-point hole is the biggest Democratic benefit Morning Seek the advice of has recorded in 2022.

Democrats Acquire Belief on the Financial system: Congressional Republicans are favored over their Democratic counterparts to deal with the financial system, 46% to 39%. However that 7-point hole marks a comparatively constant tightening since mid-June, when Republicans had a 16-point benefit on the query.

“1 huge factor: Democrats’ blue-state complications” [Axios]. “Home Republicans are more and more assured they’ll make surprising inroads into some solidly Democratic congressional districts, together with in among the bluest states within the nation: California, Connecticut, New York, Oregon and Rhode Island. Following the cash is as essential as following the (restricted) congressional public polling. Republicans are actually pouring over $25 million into among the bluest political battlegrounds on the map — a recent signal that the political winds favor the GOP down the house stretch. The Congressional Management Fund, aligned with Home Minority Chief Kevin McCarthy, has spent or reserved over $23 million on advertisements in eight Democratic-held districts that President Biden carried by double-digit margins. (Ariz.-4, Calif.-13, Calif.-47, Calif.-49, Conn.-5, N.Y.-17, Ore.-4, R.I.-2.) The NRCC can also be spending $2.2 million on coordinated or hybrid advert buys with their nominees in 5 extra Democratic-held districts that Biden carried by double-digits. (Calif.-26, Ga.-2, N.M.-3, N.Y.-4, Ore.-6). One frequent denominator in most of those blue-state races: Crime. Murders have been on the rise in main metropolitan areas inside these states and close to these districts, and the GOP’s promoting has hit Democrats over bail reform, reallocating sources away from police, and an general sense of dysfunction. One other issue favoring the GOP, in accordance with one Republican official analyzing inner knowledge, is that abortion isn’t as motivating of a problem — voters are extra assured reproductive rights are safe in states the place Republicans are within the minority.” Oops. And: “The truth that Biden spent political capital in Democratic strongholds Oregon and California this week — lower than a month earlier than Election Day — speaks volumes in regards to the nationwide temper.”

“The 4 sleeper races that will determine the Senate majority” [The Hill]. “Excessive-profile election battles in states like Pennsylvania, Georgia and Nevada have dominated speak about which occasion wins the Senate majority however strategists on either side are eyeing sleeper races in second and third tier states comparable to North Carolina, Colorado and Washington that might unexpectedly tip the steadiness of energy. A few Senate races that have been anticipated to be top-tier races have pale within the background, comparable to Arizona, the place incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly (D) has pulled properly forward of his Republican rival within the polls and fundraising, and New Hampshire, the place Republicans didn’t recruit their greatest candidate, Gov. Chris Sununu (R). With three weeks earlier than Election Day, nonetheless, Democratic and Republican strategists say there are a number of “sleeper races” that might shock political handicappers and determine which occasion controls the Senate subsequent yr….

“Voters See Democracy in Peril, however Saving It Isn’t a Precedence” [New York Times]. “In actual fact, greater than a 3rd of impartial voters and a smaller however noteworthy contingent of Democrats stated they have been open to supporting candidates who reject the legitimacy of the 2020 election, as they assigned larger urgency to their considerations in regards to the financial system than to fears in regards to the destiny of the nation’s political system.” • Advantageous phrase, “reliable.”

FL: “Police cameras present confusion, anger over DeSantis’ voter fraud arrests” [Tampa Bay Times]. “When police went to arrest Tony Patterson outdoors his Tampa dwelling in August, he couldn’t imagine the explanation. ‘What’s fallacious with this state, man?’ Patterson protested as he was being escorted to a police automobile in handcuffs. ‘Voter fraud? Y’all stated anyone with a felony might vote, man.’…. They’re accused of violating a state legislation that doesn’t permit folks convicted of homicide or felony intercourse offenses to mechanically be capable of vote after they full their sentence. A 2018 state constitutional modification that restored the suitable to vote to many felons excluded this group. However, because the movies additional assist, the modification and subsequent actions by state lawmakers prompted mass confusion about who was eligible, and the state’s voter registration types provide no readability. They solely require a possible voter to swear, beneath penalty of perjury, that they’re not a felon, or if they’re, that their rights have been restored. The types don’t make clear that these with homicide convictions don’t get automated restoration of their rights.” • The Republican model of Democrats’ complicated eligibility necessities, each — now that I consider it — seemingly impressed by literacy exams within the segregated South.

GA: “5 takeaways from the Abrams-Kemp debate in Georgia” [The Hill]. “Abrams surprised many political observers in 2018 when she got here inside 55,000 votes of defeating Kemp within the race for Georgia governor with a marketing campaign that targeted on voting rights and the necessity for larger racial fairness. She has largely tried to duplicate that technique this yr, attacking Kemp and Republicans for implementing new voting legal guidelines and hammering the necessity to steadiness public security with police reform. In a single heated change, Abrams accused Kemp of ignoring the struggles of Black and brown individuals who have confronted police discrimination, saying that ‘when you could not have had that have, too many individuals I do know have.’ She additionally touted efforts by Abrams and her allies to implement election reforms within the wake of the 2018 election to make voting extra accessible. ‘We didn’t win each single declare, however we pressured main adjustments to the election legal guidelines,’ she stated. All advised, Abrams is hoping to recreate the momentum that helped propel her to a near-win 4 years in the past. However she’s dealing with a really completely different political atmosphere this yr than she did in 2018, and the query is whether or not her message has the identical resonance.”

PA:

Pennsylvania Lt. Governor John Fetterman simply launched an up to date medical report from his major care physician.

The report concludes that Fetterman “has no work restrictions and may work full obligation in public workplace.” pic.twitter.com/yD91ri3xDG

— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) October 19, 2022

TX: “In Texas, the place cash has lengthy dominated politics, Greg Abbott is in a league of his personal” [Texas Tribune]. “Since Greg Abbott first declared he would run for governor on July 14, 2013, he’s raised the equal of $83,793 per day to fund his pursuit of energy. That’s $20,000 greater than the median Texas family earns in a yr. All through his political profession, Abbott has amassed a mountain of marketing campaign money unequalled in Texas. He’s simply probably the most prolific fundraiser in state historical past — even in contrast along with his two predecessors, George W. Bush, who went on to turn into president, and Rick Perry, who served as governor for a record-breaking 14 years. Since 1995, when Abbott made his first bid for statewide workplace for a seat on the Texas Supreme Courtroom, he has raised $348 million in marketing campaign donations when adjusted for inflation, a sum larger than the associated fee to construct the brand new Longhorn basketball enviornment on the College of Texas at Austin. In his 25 consecutive years in public workplace, Abbott’s means to courtroom donors has turn into central to his political livelihood. His strong marketing campaign treasury has allowed him to scare off potential opponents, bulldoze those that dare to problem him, whip a Legislature eager on passing his agenda, fund a sprawling grassroots group and usually reshape Texas politics in his picture. ‘That Greg Abbott is probably the most profitable fundraiser within the historical past of Texas politics shouldn’t be a meaningless assertion. Being extra profitable than Bush 43, being extra profitable than Perry — one was president and one had two completely different possibilities to be the nominee — is saying one thing,’ stated Matt Mackowiak, an Austin-based Republican strategist. ‘I believe folks have underestimated Greg Abbott, at their peril, for 20 years.’”

2024

“Kamala Harris allies leak recent Biden, Buttigieg gripes to CNN” [SFGate]. Buttigieg in additional demand on the path than Harris, so: ” Harris’ allies needed to give you excuses as for why a comparative political novice is extra wanted than a profession politician with a a lot bigger nationwide profile. One is that Harris’s safety footprint is bigger than Buttigieg’s. Having the Secret Service and native police on scene creates monetary and logistical issues that Buttigieg, who travels with only one bodyguard, doesn’t have to fret about. One other excuse is that Buttigieg is accountable for an company that doles out billions of {dollars} in grants to states for infrastructure tasks, which could be interesting to Democratic candidates searching for a simple win with voters. Harris, against this, is a high-ranking determine in a partisan administration, and candidates in tight races could really feel extra snug showing alongside a preferred bureaucrat like Buttigieg. Lastly, Harris is — as one supply within the CNN article put it — “in Biden’s home.” Buttigieg shouldn’t be related to Biden the best way Harris is, which supplies him extra latitude along with his remarks on the marketing campaign path. Harris, alternatively, is carefully scrutinized by Republicans and has to stick to the administration’s normal message. This places her at an obstacle with candidates who’re searching for a surrogate with a recent message or possibly don’t wish to be related to each facet of Biden’s platform. Whether or not these excuses are justified is unclear.” • Now that I’ve obtained “puppy-killing charlatan” out of the best way for Oz, I’m engaged on Buttigieg: “vat-grown McKinsey _____.” Sadly, “homunculus,” though precisely on level, is out of the query, for apparent causes. Within the nice custom of “short-fingered vulgarian”….

“Virginia Gov. Youngkin campaigns for Drazan in tight Oregon race for governor” [KATU]. “Drazan and Democratic candidate Tina Kotek have been neck and neck within the race, with unaffiliated candidate Betsy Johnson additionally mixing up the race. ‘You’ve obtained the Kotek-Biden agenda at work in Oregon, and you’ll’t do something however shake your head,’ stated Youngkin. ‘They’re brokers of chaos. Every little thing they do makes it worse. … It’s your second to take again your state, take again your faculties, to take again your cities, take again your legislation enforcement, and to make an announcement that identical to in Virginia, will probably be heard world wide.’” • Video of Youngkin testing the nationwide stage. He doesn’t sound like he’s from The Carlyle Group, I’ll give him that. He does bounce round a bit.

Trump Legacy

“Emails reveal new particulars of Trump White Home interference in CDC Covid planning” [Politico]. • From the The Home Choose Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Disaster. The take a look at package debacle, the masking debacle, the denial that Covid is airborne debacle, the unmasking-right-before-Omicron debacle, the “inexperienced map” debacle, the “Scarlet Letter” debacle, and the various, many knowledge debacles have been all resulting from pervasive and long-lasting institutional issues at CDC, and had nothing to do with Trump’s sh*tstirring on the political appointee stage (Trump being “the previous man” who, we’d keep in mind at this level earlier than we deploy the time period “democide,” introduced vaccines to sufferers in report time, an infinite achievement that the molasses-brained Biden administration promptly squandered). I do agree that the CDC shouldn’t have been “interfered” with. It ought to have been burned to the bottom, the rubble plowed beneath, and the bottom salted. NOTE The CDC take a look at package debacle surfaced on February 12. The primary merchandise on the Committee’s timeline is a press convention by Deborah Birx on February 25, greater than sufficient time even for the Trump administration to conclude that CDC was an omnishambles. Including, it’s a bit disheartening that when what we actually want on Covid is a Reality and Reconcilation Commisssion, what we’re going to be getting is extra fodder for Democrat speaking factors in 2024 [bangs head on desk]. If this thesis — simply to strawman a bit bit — is that “All we needed to do was let the educated professionals at CDC do their jobs with out interference from elected officers, and this pandemic would have been over a very long time in the past,” that’s not a tenable speculation.

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, plainly individuals are truly studying the back-dated publish! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are lots of updates. So I must try this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Get together (“the Democrat Get together is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated publish, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “reside” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Get together is, the truth is, a tough drawback. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Get together is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Get together didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working elements of the Get together reinforce one another. Go away apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Get together (ka-ching, however not solely) these components comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence neighborhood.

Observe, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

Realignment and Legitimacy

#COVID19

Sorting medical professionals, a wonderful thread value studying in full:

This group is “ones”:

This group is “twos”:

This group is “threes”:

On the group twos:

And:

And the group threes:

Good dialogue {of professional} pressures on group threes. Importantly, group threes observe An infection Management Tips:

(I’ve proven right here how “Hospital An infection Management Departments Tenaciously Resist Airborne Transmission, Aided by CDC.”)

This entire thread (it’s a lot richer than this excerpt) makes me very comfortable, as a result of it meets “the take a look at of impartial invention.” I divided the members of the PMC into subclasses I labeled “distinctive” and “hegemonic.” Hegemonic maps neatly onto the twos; distinctive maps neatly to ones. I didn’t title the residue, threes, who kind the vast majority of the category; maybe “normals” would do, if that’s not too insulting.

• Maskstravaganza: Shot:

Chaser:

• Maskstravaganza: Medical care (1):

IMNSHO, the science is obvious. How did these “Fellows” go so fallacious? What’s the mechanism? (They certain are smiling, although!)

• Maskstravaganza: Medical care (2):

• On the excellence of CDC’s scientific communication:

• Eugenics are a recreation two events can play, it will appear:

Every in their very own manner, after all.

Transmission

Right here is CDC’s interactive map by county set to neighborhood transmission. (That is the map CDC wants only hospitals to look at, not you.)

Lambert right here: I’ve to say, I’m seeing an increasing number of yellow and extra blue, which continues to please. However is the pandemic “over”? Effectively….

Positivity

From the Walgreen’s take a look at positivity tracker, October 18:

0.8%.

Readers, please click on via on this, in case you have a minute. Since Walgreens did the suitable factor, let’s give this challenge some stats.

Wastewater

Wastewater knowledge (CDC), October 15:

October 14:

Variants

Lambert right here: It’s past irritating how gradual the variant knowledge is. Does no one within the public well being institution get a promotion for monitoring variants? Are there no grants? Is there a single lab that does this work, and everyone will get the outcomes from them? Further sources from readers welcome [grinds teeth, bangs head on desk].

Variant knowledge, nationwide (Walgreens), October 1:

Variant knowledge, nationwide (CDC), September 24 (Nowcast off):

Deaths

Dying charge (Our World in Knowledge):

Complete: 1,091,086 – 1,090,802 = 284 (284 * 365 = 103,660, which is immediately’s LivingWith™ quantity (fairly a bit increased than the minimizers would really like, although they’ll discuss themselves into something. If the LivingWith™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I could should determine that is what the powers-that-be think about “mission completed” for this explicit tranche of loss of life and illness.

It’s good that for deaths I’ve a easy, day by day chart that simply retains chugging alongside, in contrast to every little thing else CDC and the White Home are screwing up or letting go darkish, good job.

Stats Watch

Housing: “Housing Begins” [Trading Economics]. “Housing begins within the US slumped 8.1 % to an annualized charge of 1.439 million in September 2022, down from a revised 1.566 million within the earlier month and properly under market consensus of 1.475 million. The US housing market has been hit by hovering costs of supplies and rising mortgage charges, which not too long ago reached their highest stage since 2002.”

Transport: “Container-ship logjams off US ports lastly easing as imports fall” [India Shipping News]. “The excellent news is that there have been fewer than 100 container ships caught ready off North American ports on Friday. The unhealthy information is that there have been nonetheless 99 container ships offshore and the pre-COVID norm was within the single digits. There’s nonetheless a protracted solution to go to clear the backlog. However the present tally is now again to June ranges and 35% off current highs.” • I can’t discover the remark the place this supply appeared, so whoever you might be, take a bow!

Right this moment’s Concern & Greed Index: 35 Concern (earlier shut: 34 Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 18 (Excessive Concern). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Oct 19 at 1:45 PM EDT. October, and no crash but. It’s like ready for the Ukrainian Kherson counter-offensive.

Zeitgeist Watch

Yikes:

“Determined People Are Getting Botox for Their Enamel” [The Atlantic]. “Throughout the nation, sufferers coping with the meddlesome situation are actually turning to Botox—sure, Botox. ‘It’s a very talked-about therapy’ for individuals who grind and clench their enamel, Lauren Goodman, a L.A.-based beauty nurse, advised me. Bruxism, the official time period encompassing each behaviors, is an involuntary motion that tends to occur when individuals are sleeping at night time, for causes together with alcohol and tobacco use, sleep apnea, and stress—maybe why the situation has soared in the USA in the course of the pandemic. The situation is a tolerable nuisance for many individuals, however the signs can get very actual: With bruxism on the rise, dentists are reporting extra chipped and cracked enamel in sufferers, together with jaw ache and facial soreness. In probably the most extreme instances, sufferers can undergo debilitating complications and jaw dislocation. The most typical remedies, comparable to mouth guards and life-style adjustments, solely typically assist do away with signs. That’s what makes Botox so interesting for the current flood of enamel grinders.” • It’s nearly as if there’s some collective anxiousness that’s being suppressed….

Information of the Wired

The horror, the horror. On how Calibri took over Microsoft Workplace:

I like the thought of Microsoft deciding they wanted to standardize on one font for Workplace and optimizing for PowerPoint. Plus the engineers thought old-style numerals have been damaged, as a result of they didn’t sit proper on the baseline. Say what you’ll about Apple, no less than they understood fonts.

Any person inform Meta (or wait, don’t):

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