2:00PM Water Cooler 10/26/2023 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Chook Music of the Day

Brown Pelican (Atlantic), Ria Maya Restaurante, Río Lagartos, Yucatán, Mexico. “Delicate, grating calls from pelicans begging for scraps. A lot of splashing as they vied for fish thrown into the water. Calls most frequently given after one of many birds efficiently scooped up the fish. Largely the identical birds as in ML80533521, however subsequent to a ship two homes down from Ria Maya.” A lot of the Pelican recordings are like this! A lot of splashing!

Politics

“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are the truth is a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

The Constitutional Order

“Will First Modification or the 14th prevail in case over Donald Trump’s identify on Minnesota’s presidential major poll?” [MinnPost]. “The 14th Modification to the U.S. Structure says no who has engaged in ‘revolt or rebel’ ought to maintain public workplace.” No, that’s what it says. Not “particular person,” however “an officer of the US,” the one a part of the clause that might probably — however, arguably, incorrectly — be utilized to a President. Extra: “The First Modification offers folks the suitable to affiliate and kind political teams that help political candidates…. On Nov. 2 at 9 a.m. within the Minnesota Supreme Courtroom chambers, legal professionals for a gaggle making an attempt to bar Donald Trump from showing on subsequent 12 months’s presidential desire major poll will try and have him labeled an insurrectionist…. Dealing with off in opposition to these petitioners shall be legal professionals for the Minnesota Republican Occasion and for the Trump marketing campaign, one as a proper intervener and one as a pal of the court docket. ‘The Petition’s many factual inaccuracies, gaps, and distortions come largely beneath one overarching theme: Petitioners haven’t any proof that President Trump supposed or supported any violent or illegal exercise looking for to overthrow the federal government of the US, both on January 6 or at another time,” the marketing campaign legal professionals state of their response (extra on that under). They are saying voters, not courts, ought to resolve whether or not Trump may be elected once more. The state celebration makes a special argument — that it has a First Modification proper to decide on its candidates and to run its personal course of for choosing delegates to the Republican Nationwide Committee. Courts have been very protecting of the suitable to affiliation contained within the First Modification and may achieve this on this case, the celebration’s legal professionals argue.” • If I have been a Supreme Courtroom justice, on the lookout for a solution to make the entire case go away and “let the folks resolve” not solely what an revolt is, however what an insurrectionist is, I might discover the “officer of the US” restriction fairly compelling.

“Colorado decide paves approach for trial on whether or not 14th Modification disqualifies Trump from workplace” [CNN]. “A Colorado decide has rejected one other try by former President Donald Trump to throw out a lawsuit looking for to dam him from the 2024 presidential poll primarily based on the 14th Modification’s ‘insurrectionist ban.’ The ruling Wednesday from Colorado District Choose Sarah Wallace clears the best way for an unprecedented trial to start subsequent week, to find out if Trump is disqualified from returning to the White Home due to his function within the January 6, 2021, revolt. That is the fifth unsuccessful bid by Trump to throw out the Colorado case, which is one among a number of pending fits making an attempt to derail his candidacy primarily based on the 14th Modification…. In a 24-page ruling, Wallace rejected Trump’s argument that questions on his eligibility ought to be dealt with by Congress, not courts. She additionally rejected Trump’s argument that the Colorado election officers don’t have the facility to implement the so-called ‘insurrectionist ban,’ which is enshrined in Part 3 of the 14th Modification. ‘The Courtroom holds that states can, and have, utilized Part 3 pursuant to state statutes with out federal enforcement laws,’ Wallace wrote…. She mentioned the trial will concentrate on a number of key questions, together with whether or not the occasions of January 6 ‘constituted an revolt’ and whether or not Trump ‘engaged’ in revolt.” • Wallace was appointed to the bench by Colorado Governor Jared Polis, a Democrat. Jena Griswold, the Colorado Secretary of State who would “disqualify” Trump from the poll, is a Democrat. So what we have now here’s a change within the Constitutional order I’ve identified from the start: The distinctive competence of the fashionable political celebration is management over the poll. And right here members of 1 celebration would strike the identify of one other celebration’s candidate off the poll. Deserves of the case apart, I can’t see that happening nicely in any respect.

“Trump information to look on Colorado presidential poll” [Colorado Newsline]. “Former President Donald Trump has formally indicated to Colorado election officers that he intends to run for president within the state in 2024. Trump submitted candidate paperwork at the same time as he faces a authorized problem to his eligibility to run in Colorado, and state approval of his candidacy is on maintain pending developments in that case. The secretary of state’s workplace acquired from Trump on Oct. 11 a ‘assertion of intent’ to run within the presidential major, based on paperwork Newsline obtained from the secretary’s workplace. The doc attests that Trump is not less than 35, has lived within the nation not less than 14 years and is a pure born U.S. citizen. The house handle he submitted corresponds to that of the Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida. Additionally submitted as a part of Trump’s utility to run was a $500 verify from his marketing campaign to the secretary of state’s workplace, and official approval of his candidacy from the Colorado Republican Occasion. No different candidates have but submitted ballot-access paperwork for the presidential major in Colorado. Submission of candidate paperwork to the secretary of state’s workplace, usually a routine step within the ballot-access course of, carries uncommon significance in Trump’s case, since a set of plaintiffs is suing Democratic Secretary of State Jena Griswold in state court docket in an effort to dam him from the poll subsequent 12 months.”

“Arizona secretary of state: No alternative however to place Trump on poll if he qualifies” [AZ Central]. “Secretary of State Adrian Fontes says he should qualify Donald Trump for Arizona’s presidential poll if Trump information an utility and might present he has been licensed for the poll in not less than two different states. Fontes, who in August mentioned it was an ‘open query’ whether or not a provision of the U.S. Structure may preserve Trump off the poll, mentioned a state legislation gives one other path to poll standing and he’s obliged to stick to it. That legislation states that as an alternative of Arizona’s necessities for presidential candidates to file petition signatures, a candidate can qualify so long as two different states have already got licensed the candidate for his or her ballots. No less than eight states have submitting deadlines forward of Arizona’s Dec. 11 deadline for 2024, based on Ballotpedia. Fontes on Thursday mentioned the legislation bars him from making an impartial resolution and as an alternative yokes him to choices made in different states. ‘It handcuffs me to 2 different states,’ mentioned Fontes, a Democrat who took workplace in January. ‘Right here’s the underside line … I’m mainly a time and date stamp.’”

“How These Searching for Donald Trump’s Disqualification From Working For President Will Plunge the Election Into Chaos and Hand Trump the Presidency” [Verdict]. ” America Supreme Courtroom will make the final word dedication whether or not Part 3 is self-executing, that’s, whether or not a legal conviction is a precondition to disqualification or whether or not state officers could make that dedication on their very own. What if the Supreme Courtroom holds that Part 3 is self-executing, however that it’s as much as every particular person state to find out whether or not Trump may be on the poll? What then? …. By leaving it to the states, there are two attainable outcomes. If the Supreme Courtroom have been to depend on the concurrence in Bush v. Gore, through which Justice Clarence Thomas joined, it’s the legislature and never the courts that should resolve whether or not Trump may be on the poll. Presently, Republicans have management of the legislative and government branches in 22 states and the Democrats in 17, so it’s possible that Trump can be on the poll in not less than 22 states. What occurs if the opposite 17 states resolve that he’s disqualified and can’t be on the poll? In 2020, 74 million voters from throughout the US voted for Trump. How will tens of tens of millions of voters react if they’re denied the chance to vote in 17 states? … .f the Supreme Courtroom leaves the choice to the officers in every state who run the elections, often the Secretary of State, now held by 34 Republicans, the very same scenario may happen. However what if the Supreme Courtroom agrees with the proponents of automated disqualification and holds that Trump can not run for President in any respect. Do you imagine that 74 million folks will settle for that? Forty-one states allow voters to jot down of their alternative for President. What if 88 million People vote for Trump as a write-in candidate, and primarily based upon these votes, Trump would win a majority of the electors to the Electoral School?” And: “This situation may have been prevented had the Justice Division’s particular prosecutor, Jack Smith, charged Trump with revolt or rebel or aiding our enemies, which Congress has made a criminal offense. Regardless of a suggestion by the Home of Representatives’ Jan. 6 Choose Committee, Smith selected to not.” • And one can solely assume that Smiith didn’t as a result of he couldn’t. And I’m so previous I bear in mind when Bush v. Gore was “good for one time solely” (“Our consideration is restricted to the current circumstances”). Now it’s being cited as a precedent, like a zombie’s hand reaching up out of grave-soil.

Our Famously Free Press

2024

Time for the Countdown Clock!

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“Donald Trump Gaining Floor in State No Republican Has Gained in 40 Years” [Newsweek]. N = 1225. “Donald Trump has slowly gained floor within the blue state of New York, the place the margin between the previous president and Democrat Joe Biden has considerably shortened between 2020 and now. In keeping with the newest ballot by the Siena Analysis Institute, a part of the Siena School in Loudonville, New York, Trump is lagging behind incumbent Biden by as a lot as 9 proportion factors in his house state—a lot lower than what was reported a month in the past, when he nonetheless trailed the Democrat by 21 proportion factors. The numbers, although nonetheless in favor of Biden, present that Trump has been gaining help in New York concurrently the Democratic president has been dropping it. When in comparison with Biden’s victory within the state in 2020, which crushed Trump 61 to twenty-eight %, the present outcomes communicate of the disaster of recognition suffered by the Democratic president.”

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“Biden Has a Youth-Vote Downside. His Israel Coverage Is Making It Worse.” [Slate]. “President Joe Biden has a critical age drawback, and it’s not that he’s 80: It’s his dreadful standing with youth voters. If he loses reelection subsequent November—even at this early stage, there are numerous indications that it is a actual risk—it’s possible that his remarkably low marks from voters beneath 40 shall be seen as a significant wrongdoer. A current Quinnipiac ballot underscores Biden’s disastrous standing with the youth vote. The president’s favorability score has cratered out at an almost-unbelievable 25 % amongst registered voters beneath 35 years previous. A couple of weeks prior, a Washington Submit–ABC ballot had Trump successful voters beneath 35 by 20 factors. (The Submit’s story notes that the ballot differs from others taken just lately, and that it could be an outlier. It’s not the one current presidential ballot that’s made publishers elevate an eyebrow.) Liberal commentators have been fast to dismiss these information factors, at the same time as they proceed to pile up. It’s sensible to not overreact to particular person polls, particularly greater than a 12 months from Election Day. And but, one thing is clearly awry between Biden and the youngsters, who’re, arguably, essentially the most vital demographic constituency for Democrats. In 2020, 60 % of 18-to-29-year-old voters, by far essentially the most Democratic-voting group by age, threw in for Joe Biden. It’s possible there are numerous explanations for the slide since then: Biden, hesitant to even grant interviews to the Sunday reveals, has carried out mainly zero communications outreach to any shops or platforms that millennials and zoomers really devour. Turning pupil mortgage funds again on earlier than really implementing the promised mortgage debt cancellation—which by no means would have occurred with out an archconservative Supreme Courtroom’s doubtful intervention in opposition to his preliminary proposal, after all—in all probability didn’t assist. Now Biden’s Israel coverage threatens to deepen that divide even additional. Once more: It’s sensible to not overreact to polls, however the information will not be terribly ambiguous on this.”

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“A 2024 frenzy? How RFK Jr. may chip away at Donald Trump and Joe Biden’s methods” [USA Today]. “[T]listed below are two small states which have many independents and now use ranked alternative voting, which could tip their electoral votes to RFK Jr…. Let’s break down two states the place this method may play a significant function. Maine: Biden received Maine by 9 factors in 2020, and three of its 4 electoral votes, as a consequence of its congressional allocation. Solely 35% of Maine’s voters are independents, however ranked alternative voting may change the end result. Theoretically, if Joe Biden led Kennedy 42%-32% with Trump in third place at 26%, Kennedy may win as a result of Trump voters favor Kennedy over Biden by a 23-1 margin, based on the ballot. Within the hypothetical instance above, most of Trump’s votes would reallocate to Kennedy who may simply prime 50% and find yourself successful not less than 3 of the 4 electoral votes. Alaska: Trump received Alaska by 10 factors in 2020, however presently a whopping 55% of The Final Frontier’s voters are independents, 26% Republicans, and 14% Democrats. Alaska simply applied ranked alternative voting, and will see outcomes just like the above, if Trump led Kennedy 40% % to 31% with Biden at 29%, Kennedy may prevail with greater than 50% of the vote – this time taking away 3 positive Trump electoral votes. Right here’s an fascinating twist: If Biden completed second to Trump with Kennedy third, Kennedy’s voters would break to Trump, and he would win Alaska once more. But when Kennedy completed second to Trump with Biden third, Biden’s voters would push excessive and stop Trump from successful these electoral votes. You may even see Biden ‘propping up’ Kennedy in Alaska!” • It might definitely be entertaining if the 2024 election have been thrown into the Home, and the 2 states from “The Frozen North,” east and west, held the stability….

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“After Israel go to, Newsom heads to China for local weather talks. However can he keep away from world conflicts?” [Los Angeles Times (Buff)]. “Gov. Gavin Newsom comforted a mom whose son was kidnapped by Hamas, and visited a hospital the place Israelis have been recovering from accidents from the Oct. 7 assaults. He met with prime Israeli officers, together with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and noticed movies of beheadings…. The voyage marks a sudden leap into overseas affairs for the Democratic governor who insists he’s not angling to run for president…. In China, Newsom goals to maintain his go to centered on areas the place California and China can cooperate to battle local weather change. His itinerary is full of occasions meant to advertise electrical automobiles, offshore wind power and different clear applied sciences. He’s scheduled to signal 5 compacts with regional governments, tour manufacturing websites and go to a wetlands protect. In fostering climate-friendly partnerships with native officers, Newsom hopes to avoid a slew of worldwide flashpoints.” • Oppo within the making:

NEWS: @CAgovernor @GavinNewsom meets Chinese language President Xi inside China’s Nice Corridor of the Folks.

This video reveals Newsom and his delegation strolling into the assembly. pic.twitter.com/Wliorhpd9f

— Elex Michaelson (@Elex_Michaelson) October 25, 2023

Israel (virtually) places Newsom in play (I don’t learn about his donors). However I’m undecided whether or not a China go to means Newsom is operating or not. Might be a millstone, whatever the contracts he brings house.

“Gov. J.B. Pritzker, by no means shy about criticizing Republicans, requires ‘widespread floor’ at nationwide convention” [Chicago Tribune]. “Gov. J.B. Pritzker has gained a primary spot on the nationwide progressive Democratic stage, partly via his historical past of scathing criticism of Republicans, together with labeling opponents as ‘extremists,’ ‘racist’ or ‘xenophobic.’ However on Wednesday, at a nationwide political convention of progressives in Washington, the second-term governor with potential presidential aspirations offered a brand new political fashion — conciliator. ‘I’m simply saying management on this time means placing in verify generally your feelings in regards to the assaults which are coming and as an alternative looking for widespread floor to work with each other as a result of we have now to carry the temperature down on this nation and discuss to at least one one other, no matter celebration we belong to or no matter ideology we might have, as a result of we have now a lot to perform,’ Pritzker instructed an viewers on the progressive Heart for American Progress annual concepts convention.” • That will need to have gone over huge, And it’s fairly a pivot for Pritzker. I’m wondering if he is aware of one thing about Biden’s well being we don’t know.

Republican Funhouse

“America’s Apocalyptic Cheerleaders” [The Sword and the Sandwich]. “Evangelical ‘love’ of Israel is the love of the patron in direction of the consumed, a hungry man for bread. Their fantasy is finally one among destruction: the annihilation of the Jewish religion via demise, save an elect of 144,000 who convert to Christianity — a quantity derived from the Guide of Revelations. It’s a necropolitical fantasy, one which views the tribulation with, as a submit from Calvary Chapel—the church to whom Rep. Brian Mast, who has appeared in Congress this week in an IDF uniform, belongs, put it—’pleasure, anticipation, and glee’; the top of the world is ‘the extremely anticipated kingdom. The apocalypse calls for the agony of all however the elect; to the elect it’s ecstasy. It’s rapture. The conversion and annihilation of the Jews should be preceded by their return to and absolute management of Israel; due to this fact the lives of Palestinians are nugatory and forfeit from the beginning, a road-bump on this violent fantasy that was by no means accounted for within the Revelations map. They’re an inconvenience to be disposed of, pawns to be knocked off the board so different pawns may be positioned to arrange the second of Christ’s return, the top of historical past in blood. Palestinians are lower than human on this imaginative and prescient; inconveniences at greatest, devices of the Antichrist at worst. Both approach, their annihilation is important. There have been many predictions of the apocalypse and plenty of preludes. On this second of demise and displacement, there may be pleasure for Christian observers from afar, the ecstatic terror of deliverance. What it quantities to is cheering on Armageddon from a budget seats—and directing funds to make sure it happens. It’s a grotesquerie of geopolitics and faith, and it carries undue weight in American overseas coverage, due to the merger of the Christian Proper and the Republican Occasion. A recreation of chess with eternity at stake.” • My God. Go away the poor goats alone.

“Calmes: Who’s Home Speaker Mike Johnson? Matt Gaetz’s victory lap says all of it” [Los Angeles Times]. “McCarthy in his nine-month reign largely pandered to the nuts, tradition warriors and election deniers in his Home Republican majority, ever frightened of the coup that lastly got here after he twice digressed from the extremist path to really govern — compromising with the Senate and White Home first to keep away from a debt default after which a authorities shutdown. However to the right-wingers, the shape-shifting McCarthy was all the time a poser. (Once more, they weren’t fallacious.)… Gaetz and Johnson differ big-time in fashion: Gaetz is in-your-face, Johnson so amiable and nonconfrontational that he’s ‘pal to many and an enemy to none,’ as Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York instructed the Home in nominating Johnson. Therefore his unlikely elevation…. However in substance, Johnson is little totally different from Gaetz and his ilk. Johnson has described his relationship with Jordan, mentor to the far proper, as ‘like Batman and Robin.’ However Johnson’s politics are extra infused with the conservative religiosity he demonstrated in his remarks accepting the speakership. He instructed the Home of his absent spouse, ‘She’s spent the final couple of weeks on her knees in prayer to the Lord. And, um, she’s a bit of worn out.’… Then there’s his behind-the-scenes authorized work after the 2020 presidential election to problem electoral votes in pro-Biden states. The New York Occasions, after an investigation of Republicans’ post-election machinations, referred to as Johnson “a very powerful architect of the Electoral School objections.” He enlisted most of his fellow Home Republicans in help of a short to the Supreme Courtroom, but the justices declined to take the underlying case.”

“‘I killed him’: How Trump torpedoed Tom Emmer’s speaker bid” [Politico]. • That’s good.

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, plainly persons are really studying the back-dated submit! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are numerous updates. So I must try this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Occasion (“the Democrat Occasion is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated submit, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “reside” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Occasion is, the truth is, a tough drawback. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Occasion is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Occasion didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working elements of the Occasion reinforce one another. Go away apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Occasion (ka-ching, however not fully) these components comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence neighborhood.

Notice, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is restricted by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

“Amy Klobuchar, You Suck” [Matt Taibbi, Racket News]. “Now this particular person, whose ‘humor’ persona was certainly cooked up partly to melt a rep for throwing issues at aides, who scored roughly John Blutarsky’s grade-point common with the backing of the nationwide media institution, who managed lower than 6% of Democratic voters in her personal state, has the gall to push one of many world’s greatest media distributors to disallow voluntary entry to ‘contributors as an alternative of verified information sources.’ Klobuchar desires Jeff Bezos to verify Amazon’s house surveillance robots don’t spit out even occasional solutions from a wider pool of actual human beings, together with hundreds of impartial contributors. The knowledge panorama should be a pure monopoly of ‘verified information sources.’ This Senator-to-billionaire communiqué isn’t unlawful as a result of she didn’t phrase it as an order or voice the implied menace of regulation, amongst different issues. If Bezos finally ends up complying, nonetheless, I’ve half a thoughts to sue. Endurance is carrying skinny with the relentless dedication of presidency figures — whether or not U.S. Cyber Command or a Minnesota Senator — to weed out impartial media from the digital panorama. It’s not sufficient to have 99% of the informational area? They want all> of it?” • Enjoyable stuff!

Realignment and Legitimacy

Outstanding. Good for the ACLU:

ACLU sides with Trump, argues Jan. 6 case gag order is unconstitutional https://t.co/vQKJsjoJ7u

— The Hill (@thehill) October 26, 2023

Outstanding. Good for FIRE:

FIRE urges Florida public universities *to not comply* with any state order to derecognize campus chapters of College students for Justice in Palestine because of the teams’ views or ties to the nationwide org. Silencing college students’ protected speech violates the First Modification & is illegal.

— Alex Morey (@1AMorey) October 26, 2023

#COVID19

“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Normal Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the handle given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater experiences); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep protected on the market!

Covid is Airborne

“One thing Terrible”

Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” could be a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. A lot of exceptionally nasty sequelae, almost certainly deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we would add mind injury, together with character modifications therefrom.

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Elite Maleficence

Case Knowledge

NEVER TO BE UPDATED From BioBot wastewater information, October 2:

Lambert right here: Leveling out to a excessive plateau wasn’t on my Bingo card! Maybe FL.1.5.1, excessive within the Northeast, has one thing going for it that different variants don’t have?

Regional information:

Curiously, the upswing begins earlier than July 4, which neither accelerates nor retards it.

Variants

NOT UPDATED From CDC, October 14:

Lambert right here: High of the leaderboard: EG.5 (“Eris“), with HV.1 a powerful second, and XBB.1.1.16.6 and FL.1.15.1 trailing. No BA.2.86. Nonetheless a Bouillabaisse…

From CDC, September 16:

Lambert right here: I positive hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to services minimize by directors of unwell intent).

CDC: “As of Could 11, genomic surveillance information shall be reported biweekly, primarily based on the provision of constructive check specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice per week; semiweekly.” Seems to be like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

Covid Emergency Room Visits

NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, October 21:

Lambert right here: Flattening? Solely per week’s lag, so this can be our greatest present nationwide, present indicator till Verily will get its home so as (and dealing class-centric, since I might doubt the higher crust goes to the ER).

NOTE “Charts and information supplied by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous 12 months, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not the complete pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “identical to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is acceptable for each_{MR SUBLIMINAL I hate these folks a lot}. Discover additionally that this chart reveals, not less than for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, though CDC is making an attempt to get us to imagine that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the prevailing institutional equipment for injections.

Hospitalization

Bellwether New York Metropolis, information as of October 26:

Leveling out. (I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading, though the hospital-centric public well being institution loves it, hospitalization and deaths being the one metrics that matter [snort]).

NOT UPDATED Right here’s a special CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, not less than. October 14:

Lambert right here: “Maps, charts, and information supplied by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Take a look at Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So the place the heck is the replace, CDC?

Positivity

NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, October 23:

0.7%. Slight enhance. (It might be fascinating to survey this inhabitants usually; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and massive peer strain, went and bought examined anyhow.)

NOT UPDATED From Cleveland Clinic, October 21:

Lambert right here: Slight enhance. I do know that is simply Ohio, however the Cleveland Clinic is nice*, and we’re starved for information, so…. NOTE * Even when hospital an infection management is making an attempt to kill sufferers by eliminating common masking with N95s.

NOT UPDATED From CDC, traveler’s information, October 2:

Down, albeit within the rear view mirror. And listed below are the variants for vacationers:

Sudden huge BA.2.86 look.

Deaths

NOT UPDATED Iowa COVID-19 Tracker, September 27:

Lambert right here: The WHO information is nugatory, so I changed it with the Iowa Covid Knowledge Tracker. Their technique: “These information have been sourced, through the API from the CDC: https://information.cdc.gov/NCHS/Situations-Contributing-to-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Stat/hk9y-quqm. This visualization updates on Wednesday evenings. Knowledge are provisional and are adjusted weekly by the CDC.” I can’t appear to get a pop-up that reveals a complete of the three causes (prime proper). Readers?

Complete: 1,180,288 – 1,180,183 = 105 (105 * 365 = 38,325 deaths per 12 months, at the moment’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “residing with” Covid (fairly a bit greater than the minimizers would love, although they’ll discuss themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I could must resolve that is what the powers-that-be contemplate “mission completed” for this explicit tranche of demise and illness). 

Extra Deaths

The Economist, October 26:

Lambert right here: Primarily based on a machine-learning mannequin.

Stats Watch

GDP: “United States GDP Progress Fee” [Trading Economics]. “The US financial system expanded an annualized 4.9% within the third quarter of 2023, essentially the most because the final quarter of 2021, above market forecasts of 4.3% and a 2.1% enlargement in Q2, the advance estimate confirmed.” • Commentary:

No contradiction between monumental capital focus and dealing class immiseration.

Employment Scenario: “United States Preliminary Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “The variety of People submitting for unemployment advantages rose by 10,000 to 210,000 on the week ending October twenty first, above market expectations of 208,000. Regardless of rising above the market’s median forecast, the consequence remained comparatively near the nine-month low from the earlier week to protect proof that the US labor market is at traditionally tight ranges, aligned with the Federal Reserve’s stance that rates of interest are prone to be held greater for an extended interval.”

Manufacturing: “United States Sturdy Items Orders” [Trading Economics]. “New orders for manufactured sturdy items in the US surged by 4.7% month-over-month in September 2023, rebounding from a 0.1% contraction in August and considerably surpassing market expectations of a 1.7% rise. This marked essentially the most substantial month-to-month enhance in sturdy items orders since July 2020, primarily pushed by sturdy demand for transportation gear.”

Manufacturing: “United States Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Kansas Metropolis Fed’s Manufacturing Manufacturing index improved to -8 from -13 the earlier month, however marking the second consecutive month in adverse territory. Sturdy items manufacturing noticed a extra substantial decline in comparison with nondurable items, however each sectors contracted on the identical price because the earlier month.”

Right this moment’s Worry & Greed Index: 25 Excessive Worry (earlier shut: 29 Worry) [CNN]. One week in the past: 29 (Worry). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Oct 26 at 1:51:26 PM ET.

The Gallery

Take out the illustration and also you’ve bought Jackson Pollack:

The Screening Room

Foreshadowing (1):

The foreshadowed (2):

Sure, I checked the unique.

Zeitgeist Watch

Yikes:

Information of the Wired

“Working the “Reflections on Trusting Belief” Compiler” [Russ Cox]. “The backdoor was observed as a result of the compiler bought one byte bigger every time it compiled itself. A couple of decade in the past, Ken instructed me that it was an additional NUL byte added to a string every time, “only a bug.” We will see which string fixed it will need to have been (nihstr), however the model we simply constructed doesn’t have that bug—Ken says he didn’t save the buggy model. An fascinating recreation can be to attempt to reconstruct essentially the most believable diff that reintroduces the bug.” • Annotated model of Ken Thompson’s C code. Maybe some reader who is aware of The Nice Runes can remark….

Contact data for vegetation: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a verify if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photos of vegetation. Greens are superb! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you would like your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it initially of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From wol:

wol writes: “We stuffed in a failed runoff pond and let it return to nature. A welcome result’s swamp fleabane (Pluchea carolinensis?). We’re thrilled that deer have been avoiding it, as right here it’s troublesome to search out vegetation for pollinators that deer received’t eat. I haven’t but been capable of determine the bees or wasps with black and yellow striped abs and cobalt blue wings that crowd the blooms.”

Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not coated by the annual NC fundraiser. So should you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see wherever else, please don’t hesitate to precise your appreciation in tangible kind. Keep in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common constructive suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. Once I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get nervous. Extra tangibly, a relentless trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I consider that trickle when setting fundraising objectives:

Right here is the display that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

For those who hate PayPal, you possibly can e mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I provides you with instructions on how one can ship a verify. Thanks!