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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Chook Tune of the Day
Spectacled Finch, Seri Paya, North-West Frontier, Pakistan.
Politics
“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in actual fact a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
The Constitutional Order
“Trump foes check revolt concept in authorized case to dam him from 2024 poll” [Washington Times]. “The trial, which kicked off Monday in Denver, exams the novel concept that Mr. Trump ought to be blocked from the 2024 main and normal election ballots in Colorado due to his actions after the 2020 presidential election…. In Colorado, the case was introduced by six plaintiffs recognized as Republican and impartial main voters and led by the left-wing activist group Residents for Accountability and Ethics in Washington. They mentioned Mr. Trump led an revolt on Jan. 6, 2021, when a mob of indignant protesters stormed the U.S. Capitol whereas lawmakers had been certifying Mr. Biden because the winner of the 2020 election. ‘Trump incited a violent mob to assault our Capitol, to cease the peaceable switch of energy underneath our Structure,’ Eric Olson, an legal professional for Residents for Accountability and Ethics in Washington, argued in a gap assertion peppered with footage of the riot. ‘We’re right here as a result of Trump claims, in any case that, he has the appropriate to be president once more. However our Structure, or shared constitution for our nation, says he can’t achieve this.”• Which is why Biden’s Justice Division charged Trump with revolt. Oh, wait…. However severely, I perceive the speculation of the case. However do we actually need state election officers of 1 get together throwing candidates of one other get together off the poll? And do we actually need Secretaries of State and election officers usually making what are in essence prosecutorial selections?
“Trial begins in lawsuit making an attempt to dam Donald Trump from Colorado’s 2024 presidential main poll [Colorado Sun]. “Dozens of circumstances citing Part Three of the 14th Modification have been filed in current months, however the ones in Colorado and Minnesota appear an important, in accordance with authorized consultants. That’s as a result of they had been filed by two liberal teams with vital authorized sources. In addition they focused states with clear, swift processes for challenges to candidates’ poll {qualifications}.”
“Ban Trump from 2024 poll? Why courts ought to rule he can’t function president once more” [Laurence H. Tribe and Dennis Aftergut, USA Today]. The circumstances in Colorado and Minnesota “have been introduced underneath Part 3 of the 14th Modification: ‘No particular person shall … maintain any workplace … underneath the US … who, having beforehand taken an oath …[1] to assist the Structure of the US, shall have engaged in revolt or revolt towards the identical.’” • Sure, that ellipsis is within the textual content. Right here’s what’s Tribe and Aftergut not noted: “” As readers know, the query of whether or not the President is “an officer of the US” is contested. However Larry, Larry, Larry: You simply left that half out! That’s sheer dishonest lawyering. Unsurprisingly, I’d add.
2024
Time for the Countdown Clock!
Solely six extra days till a full 12 months to election day!
* * *
* * * “Biden’s Major Challenges Are A lot Extra Critical Than DC Insiders Assume” [The Nation]. “It’s true that US Consultant Dean Phillips, the 54-year-old Minnesota Democrat who on Friday formally launched what he admitted was a “last-minute marketing campaign” towards Biden, appears to be working totally on none-too-subtle arguments that the incumbent is simply too previous and too susceptible to be handed the 2024 nomination. However Phillips is rich, he’s employed some expert strategists and he’s properly determined to gamble on the New Hampshire main to check his attraction to “the exhausted majority” in a state the place Biden’s identify received’t be on the Democratic poll.” • So, “the exhausted majority” trope made it by way of the filters tout suite. Fascinating.
* * * “3 Knowledgeable Shoemakers Say Ron DeSantis Is Most likely Carrying Peak Boosters” [Politico]. • Pres now in full pulling-wings-off-flies mode.
* * * “Massive corporations donate tens of millions on Newsom’s behalf, elevating issues about company affect” [Los Angeles Times (Bill Brand)]. “With no restrict on how a lot cash may be donated by organizations or people on the behest of the governor, tens of millions of {dollars} flowed in to prop up public providers through the pandemic and fund Newsom’s favored applications…. The firms say they had been merely making an attempt to assist the state in a time of want. However regardless of how noble the trigger, critics worry the donations might permit firms to carry extra sway in state authorities. They famous lots of the donors produce other enterprise earlier than the governor, obtained no-bid authorities contracts over the past 12 months or had been in search of favorable appointments on vital state boards, which they are saying creates the looks of a pay-to-play system.” The jargon for these so-called donations is “behested funds.” Extra: “Google gave $7 million on April 9, 2020 in a behested donation to Newsom’s workplace for public well being advertisements. Days later, , the health-focused subsidiary of Google dad or mum firm Alphabet, was awarded an expanded no-bid contract for $13.1 million for coronavirus testing. Verily was finally paid greater than $68 million for 3 testing providers contracts earlier than the state ended the agreements earlier this 12 months.” • Verily, eh?
* * * “The Third Get together Wild Card” [Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball]. “None of those [third party] candidates, individually, would have a prayer of successful barring some really unimaginable change in American politics, nor are they even assured to be on the poll all over the place. Collectively, although, the extent of assist they get can be attention-grabbing to watch, and it could be that the third get together vote finally ends up disproportionately hurting one of many main get together nominees over the opposite, though that’s not sure.” Helpful chart:
Not a swing state amongst them….
Republican Funhouse
“EDITORIAL: New speaker on to one thing with debt fee” [Las Vegas Review-Journal]. “Speaker Johnson’s committee ought to conduct its enterprise brazenly and contemplate a variety of potential options to controlling the pink ink — even these which can be anathema to at least one get together (tax hikes) or the opposite (spending cuts). It’s admittedly a protracted shot, however fostering vigorous dialogue and debate on the debt could also be step one towards accepting and implementing options.” • You possibly can guess there received’t be any MMT representatives on this “fee.”
Democrats en Déshabillé
Affected person readers, evidently individuals are truly studying the back-dated submit! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are a lot of updates. So I must do this. –lambert
I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Get together (“the Democrat Get together is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated submit, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “dwell” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Get together is, in actual fact, a tough drawback. I do assume the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:
The Democrat Get together is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Get together didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” in fact.) Second, all of the working elements of the Get together reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between parts of the Get together (ka-ching, however not completely) these parts comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with belongings within the press and the intelligence group.
Be aware, in fact, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different courses; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.
* * *
Realignment and Legitimacy
“Can public officers block you on social media? It’s as much as the Supreme Courtroom” [NPR]. • Making a marketplace for moderation providers?
#COVID19
“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Common Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the tackle given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reviews); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep secure on the market!
“One thing Terrible”
Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” is likely to be a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. Numerous exceptionally nasty sequelae, more than likely deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we’d add mind injury, together with character modifications therefrom.
* * *
Case Information
NOT UPDATED From BioBot wastewater information, October 30:
Lambert right here: Circumstances leveling out to a excessive plateau wasn’t on my Bingo card!
Regional information:
Variants
NOT UPDATED From CDC, October 28:
Lambert right here: High of the leaderboard: HV.1, EG.5 a robust second, with FL.1.15.1 and XBB.1.1.16.6 trailing. No BA.2.86 (though that has confirmed up in CDC’s airport testing). Nonetheless a Bouillabaisse…
From CDC, October 14:
Lambert right here: I certain hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to amenities lower by directors of in poor health intent).
CDC: “As of Might 11, genomic surveillance information can be reported biweekly, based mostly on the provision of constructive check specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice per week; semiweekly.” Appears like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.
Covid Emergency Room Visits
NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, October 21:
Lambert right here: Flattening? Solely per week’s lag, so this can be our greatest present nationwide, present indicator till Verily will get its home so as (and dealing class-centric, since I might doubt the higher crust goes to the ER).
NOTE “Charts and information offered by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous 12 months, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not your complete pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “identical to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is suitable for eachMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these folks a lot. Discover additionally that this chart exhibits, not less than for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, though CDC is making an attempt to get us to consider that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the prevailing institutional equipment for injections.
Hospitalization
Bellwether New York Metropolis, information as of October 31:
Hospitalization is leveling out, too. (I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading, though the hospital-centric public well being institution loves it, hospitalization and deaths being the one metrics that matter [snort]).
NOT UPDATED Right here’s a distinct CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, not less than. October 21:
Lambert right here: “Maps, charts, and information offered by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Take a look at Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So the place the heck is the replace, CDC?
Positivity
From Walgreens, October 30:
1.3%. Improve. (It could be attention-grabbing to survey this inhabitants usually; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and massive peer stress, went and acquired examined anyhow.)
NOT UPDATED From Cleveland Clinic, October 28:
Lambert right here: Slight enhance. I do know that is simply Ohio, however the Cleveland Clinic is nice*, and we’re starved for information, so…. NOTE * Even when hospital an infection management is making an attempt to kill sufferers by eliminating common masking with N95s.
NOT UPDATED From CDC, traveler’s information, October 9:
Down, albeit within the rear view mirror. And listed below are the variants for vacationers:
Sudden large BA.2.86 look.
Deaths
NOT UPDATED Iowa COVID-19 Tracker, September 27:
Lambert right here: The WHO information is nugatory, so I changed it with the Iowa Covid Information Tracker. Their methodology: “These information have been sourced, by way of the API from the CDC: https://information.cdc.gov/NCHS/Circumstances-Contributing-to-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Stat/hk9y-quqm. This visualization updates on Wednesday evenings. Information are provisional and are adjusted weekly by the CDC.” I can’t appear to get a pop-up that exhibits a complete of the three causes (prime proper). Readers?
Complete: 1,180,405 – 1,180,403 = 2 (!) (27 * 365 = 730 deaths per 12 months, at present’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “dwelling with” Covid (fairly a bit greater than the minimizers would love, although they will speak themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I may must resolve that is what the powers-that-be contemplate “mission achieved” for this explicit tranche of loss of life and illness).
Extra Deaths
The Economist, October 27:
Lambert right here: Primarily based on a machine-learning mannequin.
Stats Watch
Manufacturing: “United States Chicago PMI” [Trading Economics]. “The Chicago Enterprise Barometer, often known as the Chicago PMI, fell marginally to 44 in October 2023 from 44.1 and under market forecasts of 45. The studying marked the 14th consecutive month of stable contraction in enterprise exercise within the Chicago area.”
Tech: “.US Harbors Prolific Malicious Hyperlink Shortening Service” [Krebs on Security]. “The highest-level area for the US — .US — is dwelling to 1000’s of newly-registered domains tied to a malicious hyperlink shortening service that facilitates malware and phishing scams, new analysis suggests. The findings come shut on the heels of a report that recognized .US domains as among the many most prevalent in phishing assaults over the previous 12 months. Researchers at Infoblox say they’ve been monitoring what seems to be a three-year-old hyperlink shortening service that’s catering to phishers and malware purveyors. Infoblox discovered the domains concerned are sometimes three to seven characters lengthy, and hosted on bulletproof internet hosting suppliers that cost a premium to disregard any abuse or authorized complaints. The brief domains don’t host any content material themselves, however are used to obfuscate the actual tackle of touchdown pages that attempt to phish customers or set up malware…. .US is overseen by the Nationwide Telecommunications and Data Administration (NTIA), an government department company of the U.S. Division of Commerce. However Uncle Sam has lengthy outsourced the administration of .US to varied personal corporations, which have steadily allowed the US’s top-level area to devolve right into a cesspool of phishing exercise.” • On model for the Empire of Lies, no?
Tech: “Right here’s what Apple actually means when it says ‘shot on iPhone’” [The Verge]. “Behind-the-scenes footage of Apple’s Monday night Scary Quick occasion reveals the way it was filmed utilizing an iPhone 15 Professional Max… with the help of a full suite {of professional} recording gear and studio lighting. Nonetheless pictures and a video reveal that (unsurprisingly) an excessive amount of fancy gear — from drones, gimbals, dollies, industrial set lighting, and different recording equipment — continues to be required to make iPhone footage look this good. Apple has utilized related however far much less excessive setups for earlier occasions that had been filmed utilizing iPhones, together with the Burberry spring / summer season 2014 style present. It’s a neat technique to promote the recording high quality of iPhone cameras, however it’s not like on a regular basis of us can recreate these sorts of outcomes at dwelling until they occur to personal a shedload of ludicrously costly gear. The gear proven within the ‘Scary Quick’ behind-the-scenes footage is pretty commonplace for large studio productions, however Apple’s implication with these so-called ‘shot on iPhone’ promotions is that anybody can do it if solely they purchase the latest iPhone.”
At the moment’s Concern & Greed Index: 29 Concern (earlier shut: 30 Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 35 (Concern). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Oct 31 at 12:25:30 PM ET.
The Gallery
“Ever-enduring Dürer” [The New Criterion]. “Whether or not he was in actual fact the primary fashionable artist to even be notably narcissistic appears unlikely, however what Dürer created does certainly present astonishing genius—genius that he himself was unafraid to acknowledge…. the crowning and most private works of the artist’s profession are his three painted self-portraits. Ekserdjian traces Dürer’s profession by way of these self-portraits, alongside such highlights as Adoration of the Holy Trinity (1511), the Protestant 4 Apostles (1526), and quite a few different magnificent altarpieces and portraits. However it’s within the three surviving self-portraits that one finds probably the most talent. Ekserdjian writes that “Dürer painted not less than 4 impartial self-portraits, whereas most artists of the interval didn’t execute even one.” These works, along with the numerous research and commissions the place Dürer inserted himself into the body, reveal his novel curiosity in his personal picture. Portrait of the Artist Holding a Thistle (1493) exhibits a twenty-three-year-old Dürer gazing out on the viewer, as he does in all his self-portraits. His garments are elegant, and but an adolescent high quality stays on his face. The Prado Self-Portrait (1498) depicts the artist as a twenty-six-year-old, this time in even finer apparel, his golden hair completed in tight ringlets, with any look of uncertainty now absent from his visage. Lastly, the Self-Portrait on the Age of Twenty-Eight (1500) is the artist’s Meisterwerk. Right here, his picture is merged with the iconography of Christ. These work show each the ingenuity and mastery with which Dürer melded artist and topic into one, thereby realizing the perfect of the self-portrait.”
Class Warfare
“Return To Workplace is all about energy” [Werd I/O]. In contrast to… In contrast to… Oh, wait…. “The important flip is between an employer-controlled surroundings and a worker-controlled surroundings. Within the former, staff may be noticed and their conduct influenced. Within the latter, not a lot…. This stability of energy, not less than for data employees, is what has flipped perpetually. No one’s willingly going again to an surroundings of predominant employer management — not less than not with out vital concessions. Irrespective of which manner you narrow it or which instruments you employ, distant work does rely upon belief in your staff, extra devolved energy and distributed fairness, excessive transparency, and nice, bi-directional communication. If these are difficult to a corporation, there simply is likely to be deeper issues that have to be addressed.”
Information of the Wired
“Can I take away my private information from GenAI coaching datasets?” [Knowing Machines]. “How will you take away private information from coaching datasets if you have no idea in case your information is even there? A technique could also be to ask properly…. One other manner is to sue…. However seemingly probably the most promising methodology to be taught whether or not your private information is in GenAI coaching datasets and to hunt its deletion is to ship a request underneath the CCPA, which is simply obtainable for California residents…. For now, there is no such thing as a foolproof technique to power corporations to reveal whether or not, how a lot, and what sorts of your private information have been used as coaching information for his or her GenAI merchandise. Even when there was a manner, nevertheless, …. In a couple of months, we might even see some technical progress on this difficulty; till then, with information deletion provisions in legal guidelines just like the CCPA.” • The businesses can comply; it’s simply that their AIs received’t work. So who’s drawback is that? That’s what occurs if you construct your bullshit era enterprise on theft at scale.
Contact data for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a test in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me pictures of crops. Greens are advantageous! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! In order for you your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it firstly of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From Chet:
Chet writes: “Goldenrod is likely one of the most important flowers, because it blooms within the autumn at a time when most different flowers are on the best way out.”
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