2:00PM Water Cooler 10/5/2023 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Chicken Music of the Day

Say’s Phoebe, Mount Falcon Park, Morrison Trailhead, Jefferson, Colorado, United States. Crickets, owl, virtuoso trilling.

Politics

“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are actually a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Biden Administration

“US President Joe Biden’s canine faraway from White Home amid biting incidents” [Al Jazeera]. Not the sort of headline you wish to see. “The introduced removing of Commander got here hours after White Home press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre was requested at a each day media briefing a few new allegation that he had bitten a White Home staffer. Jean-Pierre referred inquiries to the primary woman’s workplace, which mentioned Commander and Dale Haney, the pinnacle groundskeeper on the White Home, had been enjoying and that no pores and skin was damaged in an incident that was photographed by a vacationer and shared with a information organisation, which then printed the picture on-line.The US Secret Service has acknowledged that 11 of its brokers had been nipped by the president’s canine, although US media reported that the precise quantity was increased and that the canine had bitten different White Home staff, too. One such incident required a hospital go to by an injured regulation enforcement officer, in keeping with information from the Division of Homeland Safety.” • Extra than 11 bitings? Holy [family blog], that’s govt dysfunction! Bye bye, Commander:

Which one is extra vicious? (Additionally, I wonder if any patterns would emerge if Biden’s sun shades carrying had been to be charted.)

* * *

“Biden criticized for waiving 26 legal guidelines in Texas to permit border wall building [Guardian]. “Joe Biden confronted intense criticism from environmental advocates, political opponents and his fellow Democrats after the president’s administration waived 26 federal legal guidelines to permit border wall building in south Texas, its first use of a sweeping govt energy that was usually employed beneath Donald Trump…. A federal proclamation issued on 20 January 2021 mentioned: ‘Constructing a large wall that spans the complete southern border shouldn’t be a severe coverage answer.’ On Wednesday, border officers claimed the brand new challenge was according to that proclamation. ‘Congress appropriated fiscal 12 months 2019 funds for the development of border barrier within the Rio Grande Valley, and [homeland security] is required to make use of these funds for his or her appropriated goal,’ an announcement mentioned. The assertion additionally mentioned officers had been ‘dedicated to defending the nation’s cultural and pure assets and can implement sound environmental practices as a part of the challenge coated by this waiver.’ Observers weren’t satisfied. Referring to a well-known (and much-mocked) Trump marketing campaign promise, Matt Stoller, analysis director on the American Financial Liberties Challenge, mentioned: ‘Mexico didn’t pay for the wall, however Biden did.’” • Value noting this solely occurred after Pritzker wrote Biden a letter (and never when Eric Adams whinged (and never, after all, when DeSantis and Abbot complained)).

“Biden to construct new border wall touted by Trump, in coverage reversal” [Reuters]. “Trump was fast to say victory and demand an apology. ‘As I’ve said usually, over 1000’s of years, there are solely two issues which have persistently labored, wheels, and partitions!’ Trump wrote on social media. ‘Will Joe Biden apologize to me and America for taking so lengthy to get shifting….’” • I don’t suppose “wheels and partitions” will survive A/B testing, however let’s wait and see.

2024

Time for the Countdown Clock!

* * *

Two events, each alike in dignity:

NBC ballot on the problems pic.twitter.com/WAIiHkEf4s

— Man Benson (@guypbenson) October 5, 2023

On political (“defending democracy”) economic system (“searching for the center class”) voters see the events as an identical. They usually’re proper!

* * *

“Decide at Trump’s NY civil fraud trial slams hand on bench, loses his cool throughout testimony: ‘That is ridiculous!’” [New York Post]. Trump organising dwelling quarters within the decide’s head, as he does. “The Manhattan decide deciding Donald Trump’s $250 million civil fraud trial misplaced his cool on Wednesday — slamming his hand on the bench and snapping, ‘That is ridiculous’ — as the previous president’s legal professionals grilled his ex-accountant over inconsistent testimony. The decide’s irritated response got here after Trump’s aspect claimed that Donald Bender, a associate at accounting agency Mazars USA, was evading their questions. Trump lawyer Jesus Suarez had spent a part of Tuesday afternoon and all of Wednesday morning cross-examining Bender — and mentioned he would proceed with the questioning by means of the top of the day…. ‘We have to be allowed to parse the proof — we didn’t carry this case,’ [Trump attorney Christopher] Kise argued. Alina Habba, additionally a Trump lawyer, chimed in, ‘We haven’t received one reply from him … he has no reminiscence as we sit right here.’ Over the course of testimony Wednesday — the third day of trial in New York Legal professional Basic Letitia James’ lawsuit — Engoron checked Trump’s authorized crew twice extra, at one level suggesting they had been pandering to the press and finishing up their protection as if a jury had been current.”

“Trump fraud trial in NYC stay updates: AG James declares ‘the Trump present is over,’ says she ‘is not going to be bullied’” (stay weblog) [New York Post]. Not the very best stay weblog ever, however this from Trump: “We’re taking place the road, web page after web page, doc after doc and the underside line is: That is rigged. The decide is aware of no matter he’s going to do. He mentioned that Mar-a-lago is price $18 million and it’s price $1-and-a-half billion or thereabouts. He mentioned it was price $18 million, so he defrauded us. He referred to as me a fraud, he referred to as me a fraud and he values Mar-a-Lago at $18 million, and you’ll’t try this.”

“Trump bails out of fraud trial on third day: He got here, he scowled, he received gagged, and left” [Insider]. “Exit, Donald Trump…. He doesn’t should return till he testifies by order of a New York state subpoena some weeks from now. ‘I’d moderately be proper now in Iowa,’ Trump mentioned in a parting shot to reporters initially of the lunch break, halfway by means of the trial’s first week…. Throughout his half-week in residence on the trial, chaperoned by the Secret Service, Trump attacked the lawyer common and the decide — along with off-topic diatribes in opposition to President Joe Biden and the particular counsel Jack Smith.” • “In residence,” I adore it!

* * *

PA: “Casey leads McCormick in Senate race, ballot says” [Bradford Era]. “Within the 2024 presidential race within the nation’s most populous battleground state, the distinction between Trump and President Joe Biden was nicely inside the margin of error, with Trump forward, 47% to 45%, in a attainable rematch of their 2020 contest. Each candidates had related approval rankings, too: Biden was considered favorably by 39% and unfavorably by 57%, whereas Trump had 40% optimistic and 56% unfavorable rankings. ‘,’ [Quinnipiac polling analyst Tim Malloy] mentioned. Whereas Trump nonetheless has to beat a big subject of candidates to win the Republican nomination, he was nicely forward of the pack and improved his place in contrast with an analogous survey in June, even after 4 legal indictments” [N = 1,725; ± 3.7%]. • A swing state….

“Unique: Donald Trump Followers Focused by FBI as 2024 Election Nears” [William Arkin, Newsweek]. “Proper after January 6, the FBI co-authored a restricted report (‘Home Violent Extremists Emboldened in Aftermath of Capitol Breach, Elevated Home Terrorism Menace of Violence Possible Amid Political Transitions and Past’) through which it shifted the definition of AGAAVE (‘anti-government, anti-authority violent extremism’) from ‘furtherance of ideological agendas’ to ‘furtherance of political and/or social agendas.’ For the primary time, such teams may very well be so labeled due to their politics. It was a refined change, little observed, however a big departure for the Bureau. Trump and his military of supporters had been acknowledged as a definite class of home violent extremists, even because the FBI was saying publicly that political beliefs had been by no means a part of its standards to analyze or stop home terrorism. The place the FBI sees threats can also be plain from the best way it categorizes them—a system which on the floor is designed to seem nonpartisan. This shifted subtly days after the occasions of January 6 with regards to what the Bureau calls AGAAVE. ‘We can’t and don’t examine ideology,’ a senior FBI official reassured the press after January 6. ‘We deal with people who commit or intend to commit violence or legal exercise that constitutes a federal crime or poses a menace to nationwide safety.’ However the FBI went additional in October 2022 when it created a brand new subcategory—’AGAAVE-Different’—of those that had been a menace however don’t match into its anarchist, militia or Sovereign Citizen teams. Launched with none announcement, and reported right here for the primary time, the brand new classification is formally outlined as ‘home violent extremists who cite anti-government or anti-authority motivations for violence or legal exercise not in any other case outlined, reminiscent of people motivated by a want to commit violence in opposition to these with an actual or perceived affiliation with a selected political occasion or faction of a selected political occasion.’” • A classification wrestle! And talking as a former skilled classifier, “different” classes are harmful, as a result of something and all the pieces can find yourself in them.

* * *

“Democrats cry foul after Gov. Youngkin’s Political Motion Committee receives $2 million donation from rich TikTok investor” [WAVY]. “Gov. Glenn Youngkin is dealing with criticism from Democrats after his political motion committee (PAC), Spirit of Virginia, obtained a $2 million contribution from rich TikTok investor Jeff Yass…. The donation comes lower than a 12 months after Youngkin signed an govt order banning TikTok on all state gadgets and networks claiming, ‘TikTok and WeChat knowledge are a channel to the Chinese language Communist Celebration, and their continued presence represents a menace to nationwide safety, the intelligence group, and the non-public privateness of each single American.’ It’s because of this that Democratic Home Minority Chief Don Scott says Youngkin ought to give the cash again.”

* * *

“Cornel West leaves the Inexperienced Celebration in favor of an impartial bid” [Politico]. “Presidential candidate Cornel West is leaving the Inexperienced Celebration and can proceed his bid for the White Home as an impartial candidate. ‘As Dr. West’s marketing campaign for president grows, he believes one of the best ways to problem the entrenched system is by focusing 100% on the individuals, not on the intricacies of inner occasion dynamics,’ mentioned the West marketing campaign in an announcement.” Studying between the strains, the GP is totally as dysfunctional as I’ve all the time mentioned it was. Extra: “The target as an ‘impartial, unaffiliated’ candidate is to get on the poll in all 50 states, marketing campaign supervisor Peter Daou informed POLITICO. However he acknowledged the transfer comes with some challenges. ‘It’s a significant strategic hurdle for an impartial or third occasion to achieve poll entry even in a single state, not to mention all 50 as a gift presidential candidate,’ Daou mentioned in an interview. ‘So we might be making use of as a lot rigorous evaluation as we will to one of the best ways to strategy this as a result of we don’t have limitless assets.’ The easy half, Daou argued, is getting the signatures. What might be tough is navigating the particular poll entry legal guidelines and necessities of each state. A big volunteer base is useful for amassing signatures, nevertheless it takes experience to search out the simplest technique to get on the poll in every state, mentioned poll entry knowledgeable Richard Winger, who lately printed a information to how third occasion candidates can petition to be on the 2024 poll.” • Deal with swing states? What a battle royal that will be!

* * *

Republican Funhouse

“Most 2024 GOP presidential candidates urge Republicans to cease the chaos after McCarthy’s ouster” [Associated Press]. “Many of the prime Republican candidates working for president in 2024 reacted grimly to the ouster of Home Speaker Kevin McCarthy by a faction of hard-liners in their very own occasion, whereas one contender embraced the chaos and the front-runner for the nomination notably didn’t denounce the transfer. Many agreed that it was a transparent signal that new management was wanted, not simply within the Home of Representatives but additionally within the occasion as a complete. Former President Donald Trump, who has proven an unabashed willingness to go after his fellow Republicans, requested: ‘Why is it that Republicans are all the time preventing amongst themselves?’… ‘We simply want management. We have to put leaders on the market, ship for the oldsters that we symbolize. I believe that we want order. We want easy authorities operations, and we have to ship outcomes,’ [DeSantis said on the Hugh Hewitt radio show Wednesday morning].” And the trains working on time? Extra: “In the meantime, biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy welcomed the chaos.” • I’m undecided aghastitude at inside occasion workings ever resonates with voters.

“Calls mount for ‘Home Speaker Donald Trump,’ as lawmaker claims he can greatest ‘unite’ GOP” [FOX News]. “Calls proceed to mount for Donald Trump to be nominated speaker of the Home as some argue that solely the previous president may unite divided Republicans. Rep. Greg Steube, R-Fla., informed FOX Information on Wednesday that Trump can be the proper candidate to coalesce Republicans behind widespread coverage targets after Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., was stripped of the gavel Tuesday. ‘We want someone to unite our convention. And I actually consider that he’s the one individual that may try this,’ Steube informed ‘The Story.’ ‘He’s the America First agenda. We want the America First agenda to be displayed within the Home of Representatives.’” • I can solely say that Trump as Home speaker can be superior, the equal of hitting the complete spectacle, not merely the referee, over the pinnacle with a chair, WWF-style. Nonetheless, the Speakership would mire Trump in precise governance. I’m undecided that will be to his profit.

“Leonard Leo says he is not going to cooperate with D.C. Legal professional Basic tax probe” [Politico]. “Judicial activist Leonard Leo shouldn’t be cooperating with an investigation by Washington D.C. Legal professional Basic Brian Schwalb for probably misusing nonprofit tax legal guidelines for private enrichment, his lawyer confirmed. David Rivkin, Leo’s lawyer, mentioned in an announcement to POLITICO that Schwalb has ‘no authorized authority to conduct any investigatory steps or take any enforcement measures’ as a result of Leo’s multi-billion-dollar aligned nonprofits — which poured hundreds of thousands into campaigning for the nominations of conservative Supreme Courtroom justices and advocating earlier than them — had been organized exterior of D.C. Leo’s consulting agency, CRC Advisors is registered in D.C. and his important aligned nonprofit, The 85 Fund, used a D.C. mailing tackle for no less than a decade. Schwalb can also be trying into liberal ‘darkish cash’ group Arabella Advisors, a consulting agency based by a former Clinton official that manages a handful of nonprofits, POLITICO confirmed, after Republican attorneys common lately complained that Schwalb ought to as an alternative be probing Arabella. ‘Arabella Advisors complies with the regulation and can cooperate with the District of Columbia Legal professional Basic’s civil inquiry,”‘mentioned Arabella spokesman Steve Sampson mentioned in an announcement. … The investigations — and subsequent subpoenas — are in response to dueling complaints from liberal and conservative watchdog teams filed with the IRS that started after POLITICO reported that the approach to life of Leo and a handful of his allies took a lavish flip starting in 2016, the 12 months he was tapped as an unpaid adviser on judicial nominations to former President Donald Trump.” • Anyone name a w-h-a-a-a-m-bulance! I don’t have loads of sympathy for billionaire Leo (and concurrently detest Arabella).

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, plainly persons are truly studying the back-dated publish! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are lots of updates. So I must try this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Celebration (“the Democrat Celebration is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated publish, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “stay” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Celebration is, actually, a tough drawback. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Celebration is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Celebration didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working elements of the Celebration reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between parts of the Celebration (ka-ching, however not solely) these parts comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with belongings within the press and the intelligence group.

Notice, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different courses; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

“Senators nix informal clothes as bipartisan decision units new gown code for Senate ground” [Associated Press]. “The bipartisan decision by Sens. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., and Mitt Romney, R-Utah, comes after backlash to Schumer’s announcement that employees for the chamber’s Sergeant-at-Arms would not implement a gown code on the Senate ground. The steering got here as Pennsylvania Sen. John Fetterman has been unapologetically carrying shorts and sweatshirts across the Senate, voting from doorways so he didn’t stroll on the chamber ground and get in bother for his informal gown. ‘Although we’ve by no means had an official gown code, the occasions over the previous week have made us all really feel as if formalizing one is the suitable path ahead,’ Schumer mentioned Wednesday night, because the decision by Manchin and Romney handed.” • Good to see our representatives foused on the vital issues. And it’s bipartisan! (What the heck does “have made us all really feel as if” even imply?)

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Jacquet: Explaining non-participation in deliberative mini-publics” [Equality by Lot]. Summarizing a “extremely cited” paper by Vincent Jacquet, a helpful desk:

“State Election Board cabinets bid to permit extra hand-marked ballots, affirms touchscreen use” [News from the States]. “On Tuesday, the Georgia State Election Board rejected a proposal that will have elevated the variety of voters casting hand-marked paper ballots within the 2024 election cycle when present touchscreen machines elevate poll privateness considerations. By rejecting requests to boost poll secrecy and safety, the election board doubtless eliminates any risk of significant election rule adjustments forward of Georgia’s busy election cycle in 2024, which is able to acquire steam with a presidential major on March 12.”

“Youngkin administration says it’s fixing subject that improperly eliminated some voters from the rolls” [Associated Press]. “Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s administration mentioned this week, with early voting underway, that it’s working to repair a problem that misclassified probation violations as felonies and has led to an unknown variety of eligible Virginians being faraway from the voter rolls. State election officers are working with Virginia State Police to establish voters whose registration ‘could have been canceled in error’ and start the method of getting these individuals reinstated, Andrea Gaines, a spokeswoman for the Division of Elections, mentioned in an announcement Wednesday. ‘We’re taking nice care to establish every individual affected and dealing to reinstate their registration instantly,’ mentioned Susan Beals, commissioner of the Division of Elections.” • Given the demographics of probation violation, if this had been Florida 2000, I’d say the Republicans had been tampering with the voter rolls, identical to Jebbie did. Additionally, “taking nice care” and “instantly” contradict, certainly?

#COVID19

“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the tackle given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater experiences); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep protected on the market!

Maskstravaganza

“B.C. masks guidelines return to health-care settings” [Vancouver City News]. “Provincial Well being Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry [she’s heart-broken, I’m sure] introduced final week the return of masks mandates for health-care staff, guests, and volunteers in patient-care areas of locations like hospitals and different public amenities. Masks should not obligatory in personal practices, together with dentist and chiropractor places of work.” • Henry is such a instrument, and that’s the charitable clarification. Covid is airborne and strikes like smoke, by means of the complete facility, not simply in “affected person care” areas. And never in dentist’s places of work, when dentistry is the very definition of an Aerosol Producing Process?! These individuals aren’t simply dangerous, they’re getting worse; truly regressing. (The wording can also be extraordinarily revealing of the paradigm at play right here: One may think that the whole hospital is a “affected person care” space — what cause for being, in any case, does a hospital have? — however apparently not.)

Superstar Watch

“Taylor Swift Helped Drive 35,000 New Voter Registrations After One Instagram Publish” [Teen Vogue]. • Good for her. Now if solely she would masks up. One other instance of movie star management:

Beyonce nonetheless wears masks behind the scenes. Celebs are taking extra precautions than they let on. https://t.co/9gCuw7EkOp pic.twitter.com/eHnl3cE8ey

— lizwhatsherface.bsky (@RealGayArbys) October 2, 2023

There’s a paper to be written on parasocial relationships and public well being….

An infection

“Lingering COVID virus in tongue linked to long-term style loss” [National Institute on Aging]. “Lack of style, one of the vital widespread and irritating signs of COVID-19 an infection, seems to be related to persistent injury to style buds attributable to low quantities of the virus that may linger for months or much more than a 12 months… COVID-related lack of scent and style impacts hundreds of thousands of individuals, can negatively alter total high quality of life and vitamin, and result in melancholy. A current examine estimated that 60% of individuals contaminated with COVID in 2021 misplaced some capability to style or scent, and 1 / 4 of these sufferers, roughly 28 million People, didn’t absolutely recuperate and had been left with a decreased sense of scent…. The crew examined biopsy samples, discovering that low quantities of virus, undetectable by COVID polymerase chain response (PCR) exams, lingered in tongue and style bud cells in some circumstances for so long as 1.5 years. In addition they discovered that style bud basal cells — which produce new style buds as previous ones die off — affected by the virus produced buds that had been smaller, misshapen, and had fewer style receptor cells than wholesome ones.” • Eesh. Quite ironic, eh? We optimized our Covid response in order that eating places would stay open, and now hundreds of thousands have misplaced their sense of style….

Therapy

“Results of tea, catechins and catechin derivatives on Omicron subvariants of SARS-CoV-2” [Nature]. From the Summary: “Right here we present that Omicron subvariants had been successfully inactivated by inexperienced tea, Matcha, and black tea.. Holy [family blog]! I’d say “Large if true, however this is Nature…. Extra: “Wholesome volunteers consumed a sweet containing inexperienced tea or black tea, and saliva collected from them instantly after the sweet consumption considerably decreased in vitro…. The examine could counsel molecular foundation for potential usefulness of those compounds in suppression of mutant viruses that might emerge sooner or later and trigger subsequent pandemic.” • I’m not a variant maven, however topic to correction: BA.1 isn’t even on the charts any extra, and EG.5, FL.1.5.1, the highest gadgets on the present variant leaderboard, are from a unique lineage. Information Medical concludes that “This examine demonstrated that inexperienced tea, Matcha, and black tea successfully inactivate Omicron subvariants,” however though the article lists loads of variants, EG.5 and FL.1.5.1 don’t seem. However. Now do espresso!

“One thing Terrible”

Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” may be a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. A lot of exceptionally nasty sequelae, almost definitely deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we’d add mind injury, together with character adjustments therefrom.

* * *

Lambert right here: Again to tape-watching mode. It nonetheless seems to be to me like the present surge has some methods to run, given how wastewater flattened, with the East Coast up. Let’s wait and see.

Case Information

NOT UPDATED From BioBot wastewater knowledge, October 2:

Lambert right here: Leveling out to a excessive plateau wasn’t on my Bingo card! Maybe FL.1.5.1, excessive within the Northeast, has one thing going for it that different variants don’t have?

Regional knowledge:

Apparently, the upswing begins earlier than July 4, which neither accelerates nor retards it.

Variants

NOT UPDATED From CDC, September 30:

Lambert right here: September 30 is tomorrow, however by no means thoughts that. Prime of the leaderboard: EG.5 (“Eris“), with FL.1.15.1, HV.1, and XBB.1.1.16.6 trailing. Nonetheless a Bouillabaisse…

From CDC, September 16:

Lambert right here: I positive hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to amenities reduce by directors of unwell intent).

CDC: “As of Could 11, genomic surveillance knowledge might be reported biweekly, primarily based on the supply of optimistic check specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice per week; semiweekly.” Appears to be like like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

Covid Emergency Room Visits

NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, September 30:

Drop coinciding with wastewater drop.

NOTE “Charts and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous 12 months, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not the complete pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “identical to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is acceptable for each_{MR SUBLIMINAL I hate these individuals a lot}. Discover additionally that this chart reveals, no less than for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, though CDC is attempting to get us to consider that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the present institutional equipment for injections.

Hospitalization

Bellwether New York Metropolis, knowledge as of October 5:

Barely lowering. (New York state is steadily rising, nevertheless it’s New York Metropolis that’s the bellwether.) I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading.

NOT UPDATED Right here’s a unique CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, no less than. September 23:

Lambert right here: “Maps, charts, and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Take a look at Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So the place the heck is the replace, CDC?

Positivity

NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, October 2:

-1.0%. One other large drop. (It might be attention-grabbing to survey this inhabitants typically; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and large peer stress, went and received examined anyhow.)

NOT UPDATED From Cleveland Clinic, September 23:

Lambert right here: I do know that is simply Ohio, however the Cleveland Clinic is nice*, and we’re starved for knowledge, so…. NOTE * Even when hospital an infection management is attempting to kill sufferers by eliminating common masking with N95s.

NOT UPDATED From CDC, traveler’s knowledge, September 11:

Again up once more And listed here are the variants for vacationers:

Now, BA.2.86. FL.1.51.1, apparently, low.

Deaths

NOT UPDATED Iowa COVID-19 Tracker, September 27:

Lambert right here: The WHO knowledge is nugatory, so I changed it with the Iowa Covid Information Tracker. Their methodology: “These knowledge have been sourced, through the API from the CDC: https://knowledge.cdc.gov/NCHS/Situations-Contributing-to-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Stat/hk9y-quqm. This visualization updates on Wednesday evenings. Information are provisional and are adjusted weekly by the CDC.” I can’t appear to get a pop-up that reveals a complete of the three causes (prime proper). Readers?

Whole: 1,177,982 – 1,177,856 = 126 (126 * 365 = 45,990 deaths per 12 months, at the moment’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “dwelling with” Covid (fairly a bit increased than the minimizers would love, although they’ll discuss themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I could should determine that is what the powers-that-be take into account “mission completed” for this specific tranche of demise and illness). 

Extra Deaths

The Economist, October 4:

Lambert right here: That is now being up to date each day once more. Odd. Based mostly on a machine-learning mannequin.

Stats Watch

“United States Preliminary Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “The variety of People submitting for unemployment advantages edged increased by 2,000 to 207,000 on the week ending September thirtieth, beneath estimates of 210,000 and remaining near the seven-month low of 202,000 from earlier within the month. Within the meantime, persevering with claims unexpectedly fell by 1,000 to 1,664,000 on the week ending September twenty third, nicely beneath estimates of 1,675,000 and remaining near the near-eight-month low recorded beforehand, suggesting that unemployed people are having relative success to find new jobs. The info added to proof that the labor market stays at traditionally tight ranges, pointing to added resilience to the Federal Reserve’s aggressive tightening cycle and including leeway for charges to stay increased for longer.”

The Bezzle: “Reserving.com makes a fortune – so why is it leaving its payments to small inns unpaid?” [Guardian]. “There’s something fallacious at Reserving.com. Whereas its mum or dad firm has been making file earnings – $1.3bn for the second quarter of 2023 alone – and its CEO and executives have been cashing in hundreds of thousands of {dollars} in shares this 12 months, most of the individuals who helped Reserving.com make that fortune declare to haven’t been paid since July, some say longer. Many Reserving.com lodging companions from Australia to Europe to the Americas have confronted silence from the corporate as they’ve chased funds for months whereas struggling to maintain companies afloat – significantly in the course of the profitable northern hemisphere peak summer time season, when many friends had been basically staying freed from cost, as Reserving.com hadn’t handed on funds…. Many companions have complained on to the CEO about Reserving.com’s silence on late funds and employees’s lack of response to calls, emails and circumstances opened on the platform which might be closed with out being resolved.”

At present’s Concern & Greed Index: 23 Excessive Concern (earlier shut: 18 Excessive Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 28 (Concern). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Oct 5 at 1:59:01 PM ET.

The Jackpot

“Passport processing occasions diminished by 2 weeks, State Division says” [CBS News]. “If it’s essential get a brand new passport or renew it quickly, the method must be a bit faster. The State Division says it has lowered anticipated wait occasions by two weeks following a 2023 that thus far has resulted in weeks-long and generally months-long waits to get passports. All passport functions obtained Monday and past could have wait occasions of 8-11 weeks for routine service with occasions shortened to 5-7 weeks for expedited service, the State Division mentioned in an announcement. The change in processing time doesn’t apply to functions obtained earlier than Monday. Greater than 24 million passport books and playing cards had been issued within the fiscal 12 months that ended over the weekend, the State Division mentioned. That quantity was a file, eclipsing the earlier 12 months’s file of twenty-two million. Over late spring and early summer time, the State Division was receiving roughly 450-500,000 functions every week, CBS Information reported. The State Division steered vacationers start the method 6-9 months upfront of any journey and to test the validity of their passports continuously.” • Couldn’t damage to do that now, and I strongly counsel that these of you with out passports take into account getting one. You by no means know! (Take into account additionally that the passport is nice for ten years and is presently very low tech. Gawd is aware of what’s going to occur once they go extra excessive tech, so get yours now.)

Zeitgeist Watch

“Software program can detect hidden and complicated feelings in dad and mom” (press launch) [University of Bristol]. “The College of Bristol and Manchester Metropolitan College crew labored with Bristol’s Kids of the 90s examine individuals to see how nicely computational strategies may seize genuine human feelings amidst on a regular basis household life. This included using movies taken at dwelling, captured by headcams worn by infants throughout interactions with their dad and mom. The findings, printed in Frontiers, present that scientists can use machine studying methods to precisely predict human judgements of mum or dad facial expressions primarily based on the computer systems’ selections. Lead creator Romana Burgess, PhD pupil on the EPSRC Digital Well being and Care CDT within the Faculty of Electrical, Digital and Mechanical Engineering on the College of Bristol, defined: ‘People expertise sophisticated feelings – the algorithms inform us that somebody could be 5% unhappy or 10% glad, for instance. ‘Utilizing computational strategies to detect facial expressions from video knowledge could be very correct, when the movies are of top quality and symbolize optimum situations – as an illustration, when movies are recorded in rooms with good lighting, when individuals are sat face-on with the digital camera, and when glasses or lengthy hair are saved from blocking the face.’” • As a WASP, I’ve come to just accept that I don’t essentially know what my feelings are, and “an app for that” may be helpful. OTOH, once I consider the ways in which app may very well be gamed, I recoil in horror.

Class Warfare

Truthful. Value a watch (you’ll be able to go away the sound down):

I don’t know the phrase for what sort of bias that is (“normalcy?”). For instance, my image of “grade faculty” doesn’t embrace metallic detectors, shootings, or cops within the halls. However that’s solely as a result of I’m an previous codger, and possibly, at this level, a minority. And it’s very exhausting for me to place myself within the footwear of someone whose, nicely, “lived expertise” of one thing so seemingly quotidian as so at variance with my very own.

Information of the Wired

“Pythagoras: Everybody is aware of his well-known theorem, however not who found it 1000 years earlier than him” [Journal of Targeting, Measurement and Analysis for Marketing]. “The story of Pythagoras and his well-known theorem shouldn’t be well-known. Among the plot factors of the story are introduced on this article…. Pythagoras is immortally linked to the invention and proof of a theorem that bears his identify – though there isn’t a proof of his discovering and/or proving the concept. There’s concrete proof that the Pythagorean Theorem was found and confirmed by Babylonian mathematicians 1000 years earlier than Pythagoras was born.” • Neat!

Contact data for crops: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a test in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photos of crops. Greens are effective! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you need your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it initially of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From MT Jefe:

MT jefe writes: “Sticky geranium, Montana.” It is a geranium?

Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not coated by the annual NC fundraiser. So for those who see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see wherever else, please don’t hesitate to precise your appreciation in tangible kind. Bear in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common optimistic suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. After I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get nervous. Extra tangibly, a relentless trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I think about that trickle when setting fundraising objectives:

Right here is the display screen that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

Should you hate PayPal, you’ll be able to e-mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I gives you instructions on how you can ship a test. Thanks!