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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Affected person readers, it is a bit gentle at current, as a result of I bought wrapped around the axle studying Trump’s attraction on immunity. –lambert
Chicken Tune of the Day
Pacific Loon, Churchill and Northern Manitoba, Manitoba, Canada
Media from this location Illustrated Guidelines. “Intervals shortened a bit to take away worst insect noise.” That wierd, unmusical croaking is the loon!
Politics
“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in truth a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
Capitol Seizure
“Supreme Court docket will hear a case that might undo Capitol riot cost towards a whole bunch, together with Trump” [Orlando Sentinel]. ” The Supreme Court docket on Wednesday stated it would hear an attraction that might upend a whole bunch of costs stemming from the Capitol riot, together with towards former President Donald Trump. The justices will overview an appellate ruling that revived a cost towards three defendants accused of obstruction of an official continuing. The cost refers back to the disruption of Congress’ certification of Joe Biden’s 2020 presidential election victory over Trump. That’s amongst 4 counts introduced towards Trump in particular counsel Jack Smith’s case that accuses the 2024 Republican presidential main front-runner of conspiring to overturn the outcomes of his election loss. Trump can also be charged with conspiracy to hinder an official continuing. The court docket’s resolution to weigh in on the obstruction cost may threaten the beginning of Trump’s trial, at the moment scheduled for March 4. The justices individually are contemplating whether or not to rule shortly on Trump’s declare that he can’t be prosecuted for actions taken inside his function as president. A federal choose already has rejected that argument.” • Gonna look forward to the legal professionals to weigh on on this one. That stated, if Januaruy 6 was an rebel, why wasn’t that the cost?
Biden Administration
“White Home open to new border expulsion legislation, obligatory detention and elevated deportations in talks with Congress” [CBS]. “Particularly, the White Home indicated that it could assist a brand new, far-reaching authorized authority to permit U.S. border officers to summarily expel migrants with out processing their asylum claims. The measure would successfully revive the Trump-era Title 42 pandemic order and permit officers to pause U.S. asylum legislation, with out a public well being justification.” • Biden is a liberal Democrat, allow us to bear in mind. However something for Israel.
“Remarks by President Biden at a Marketing campaign Reception” [Whitehouse.gov]. Price studying in full. This:
Bibi and I speak quite a bit. I’ve recognized him for 50 years. A few of he has an image on his desk — a minimum of after I’m there, he has it on it. (Laughter.) Eight and a half by eleven, with an image of — the place I wrote, “Bibi…” — once we have been each younger males, he was on the embassy right here and I used to be a senator. I stated, “Bibi, I like you, however I don’t agree with a rattling factor you must say.” (Laughter.) That continues to be to be the case. (Laughter.)
He’s an excellent pal, however I feel he has to alter and — with this authorities. This authorities in Israel is making it very troublesome for him to maneuver.
You already know, Ben-Gvir will not be what you’ll name somebody who — that is probably the most conservative authorities in Israel’s historical past — probably the most conservative. I’ve recognized each, each, each single head of state in Israel since Golda Meir. And I’ve recognized them as a result of I’ve hung out with them many instances.
However:
So, these of you who’ve household again in Israel, you noticed what occurred when Bibi tried to alter the Supreme Court docket. Hundreds of IDF troopers stated, “We’re out. We’re not going to take part. We’re not going to assist the navy.”
That wasn’t any exterior affect. That got here from inside Israel.
So, people, there’s quite a bit to do — an entire lot to do.
At the start, do every thing in our energy to carry Hamas accountable — each single factor in our energy. They’re animals. They’re animals. They exceeded something that some other terrorist group has finished of late that I — in reminiscence.
However, secondly, we have now to work towards bringing Israel collectively in a method that gives for the start of possibility — an possibility of a two-state resolution, as a result of absent that — (applause) — (inaudible).
It’s in all probability greater than you wished to listen to, however — (laughter).
That Biden focuses on home politics each right here and in Israel is fascinating. However to me, this boils down to at least one phrase: Intractable.
2024
Lower than a 12 months to go!
* * * “Trump immunity in E. Jean Carroll case denied by appeals panel, organising Supreme Court docket battle” [The Hill]. “A 3-judge panel of the U.S. Court docket of Appeals for the 2nd Circuit dominated towards Trump, discovering that presidential immunity could possibly be waived as a protection and that Trump had in truth waived it.” Whoops. Extra: “The panel went on to reject the previous president’s varied arguments for why he ought to be capable to assert the protection now. ‘[R]ecognizing presidential immunity as waivable reinforces, not undermines, the separation of powers and the President’s resolution making authority by affording the President a possibility to litigate if he so chooses. Accordingly, we maintain that presidential immunity is waivable,’ Choose José Cabranes wrote within the 35-page resolution.” • The 2nd circuit ruling on immunity has a domino impact on Smith’s case, and so–
“Trump’s legal professionals inform an appeals court docket that federal prosecutors try to hurry his election case” [ABC]. “Legal professionals for Donald Trump instructed a federal appeals court docket on Wednesday that it shouldn’t velocity up its consideration of whether or not the previous president is immune from prosecution, accusing federal prosecutors of making an attempt to hurry his 2020 election subversion case via earlier than subsequent 12 months’s presidential election…. The difficulty is of paramount significance to each side given the potential for a protracted attraction to delay a trial past its at the moment scheduled begin date of March 4…. At problem is an attraction by the Trump group, filed final week, of a trial choose’s rejection of arguments that he was shielded from prosecution for actions he took as president. Smith sought to short-circuit that course of by asking the Supreme Court docket on Monday to take up the difficulty throughout its present time period, a request he acknowledged was ‘extraordinary’ however one he stated he was important to maintain the case shifting ahead. Smith’s group concurrently requested the U.S. Court docket of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit to expedite its consideration of Trump’s attraction, writing: ‘The general public has a powerful curiosity on this case continuing to trial in a well timed method. The trial can not proceed, nonetheless, earlier than decision of the defendant’s interlocutory attraction.’ The Trump group made clear its opposition to that request, saying the case presents ‘novel, advanced, and delicate questions of profound significance.’” • The textual content of Trump’s attraction–
“PRESIDENT TRUMP’S OPPOSITION TO MOTION FOR EXPEDITED APPELLATE REVIEW” [IN THE UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA CIRCUIT]. From the Introduction:
IANAL, and I don’t love Trump, however this doesn’t appear fallacious to me: “Whether or not a President of america could also be criminally prosecuted for his official acts as President goes to the core of our system of separated powers and can stand among the many most consequential questions ever determined by this Court docket.” Anyhow, this paragraph must carry down the temple:
Sure, Bush, Obama, and Nixon have been all crooks. Impeachment would have been the reply for all three, provided that in our system of celebration governance, the prosecutoral equipment is “captured,” by definition (absent “norms”). Political events are, after all, a part of our unwritten Structure. No textual warrant for them in any respect.
* * * “Axelrod says WSJ ballot ‘very, very darkish’ for Biden marketing campaign” [The Hill]. “Axelrod stated he was most alarmed by the numbers concerning voters’ notion of Biden’s and Trump’s insurance policies when president. About 23 p.c of voters stated Biden’s insurance policies have helped them, whereas 49 p.c stated the identical of Trump’s insurance policies. About 53 p.c stated Biden’s insurance policies damage them personally, and 37 p.c stated the identical for Trump.” • On condition that the Democrats undid the CARES Act as quickly as they may, that’s not unreasonable. However Axelrove, I assume, is operating interference for The Wizard of Kalorama™. Which horse is Obama backing, as he retains making an attempt to journey Biden up?
“Biden-Harris Marketing campaign Hires Brian Fallon, Outstanding Dem Critic” [RealClearPolitics]. “Brian Fallon, govt director of the progressive group Demand Justice, will quickly be a part of the Biden-Harris marketing campaign as communications director for the vice chairman…. It was Fallon and Demand Justice who referred to as on Biden to increase the variety of seats on the Supreme Court docket to counter the conservative majority. And later, they mounted a stress marketing campaign to persuade liberal Justice Stephen Breyer to retire in order that the president may identify a youthful, extra progressive substitute. The White Home explicitly disapproved of each measures…. Fallon additionally publicly supported defunding the police, one thing that the White Home insists they adamantly oppose.” • If Harris thinks she will “pivot left,” she’s out of her thoughts.
* * * “Hunter Biden won’t sit for deposition by GOP, says father not ‘financially’ concerned in his enterprise” [FOX]. “Hunter Biden supply to testify publicly is a de facto rejection of the GOP demand that he seem Wednesday for the closed-door deposition he was subpoenaed for. That deposition was scheduled to happen Wednesday at 9:30 a.m…. ‘No proof to assist that my father was financially concerned in my enterprise as a result of it didn’t occur,’ Hunter Biden stated.” • “Financially” is doing loads of work, there.
“By Trendy Requirements, Biden Ought to Be Impeached | Opinion” [Mark R. Weaver, Newsweek]. Ohio AG (R). “Based mostly on fashionable legislative interpretations of impeachable conduct, the U.S. Home of Representatives has sufficient proof to question President Joe Biden. ‘Present me the treason, excessive crime, or misdemeanor’ some will shout. Right here’s my reply: Go get elected to the Home, the place you and your colleagues alone resolve what proof meets that commonplace…. Richard Nixon was by no means charged with against the law or impeached however he was recognized as an unindicted co-conspirator within the crimes of others. Regardless of his provable lies on the contrary, Joe Biden was concerned together with his son Hunter’s overseas affect enterprise. Whether or not that makes him a co-conspirator in Hunter’s crimes is a ripe space for congressional scrutiny. Probably the most energetic architect of the Structure, James Madison, described the kind of behaviors that might set off impeachment as ‘incapacity, negligence or perfidy.’ Impeachment served as a safeguard, Madison stated, towards betrayal of ‘his belief to overseas powers.’ Ukraine and China leap to thoughts. With these info in hand, sustaining the partisan declare of “no proof” is like denying the daylight at daybreak. Sure, issues have been solely dimly seen for some time, however the sunlit scrutiny of hearings will nearly actually solid an plain beam on this conclusion: It’s time to question Joe Biden.”
* * * IL: “Illinois NAACP president faces calls to give up over convention name the place she branded migrants ‘rapist savages’ who’re taking sources from black and homeless individuals” [Daily Mail]. “‘These immigrants who come over right here, they’ve been raping individuals, they’ve been breaking into properties, they’re like savages as properly,’ [Teresa Haley] stated. ‘They don’t converse the language they usually take a look at us like we’re loopy.’… Illinois Governor JB Pritzker referred to as remarks ‘reprehensible’ and ‘terribly inappropriate.’ ‘I’d hope that she would apologize for the remarks,’ he added. ‘I additionally suppose that individuals ought to acknowledge that immigrants on this nation are throughout us. Just about all of us got here right here from elsewhere. So remarks like which can be commentary on our whole society.’”
Republican Funhouse
“Calls develop for Congress to subpoena Jeffrey Epstein’s flight logs regardless of Democrat ‘stonewalling’” [FOX]. “Calls are rising for Congress to subpoena convicted intercourse offender Jeffrey Epstein’s flight logs with a purpose to establish doable perpetrators who could have partaken in his intercourse trafficking ring. In a Monday letter to the Home Oversight Committee, Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tenn., stated there have been nonetheless many unanswered questions surrounding Epstein’s operation, together with the identities of “America’s strongest and well-known individuals” who could have been concerned.” • I’m all for it, however I can’t determine what Burchett’s letter is in support of.
Democrats en Déshabillé
Affected person readers, it appears that evidently persons are really studying the back-dated publish! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are various updates. So I should try this. –lambert
I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Social gathering (“the Democrat Social gathering is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated publish, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “stay” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Social gathering is, in truth, a tough downside. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the way in which again to 2016, if not earlier than:
The Democrat Social gathering is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Social gathering didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working components of the Social gathering reinforce one another. Go away apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Social gathering (ka-ching, however not completely) these components comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with belongings within the press and the intelligence group.
Word, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is restricted by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.
* * *
Realignment and Legitimacy
“Claudine Homosexual Is Why I By no means Checked the ‘Black’ Field” [The Free Press]. “[I]t was not till I utilized to school within the early Nineties that I encountered individuals like Claudine Homosexual and actually noticed backstage of identification politics. That was when, with grades and SATs that have been borderline acceptable for top-tier faculties, my highschool counselor—together with most college officers—urged me to spice up my possibilities of admission by checking the ‘black’ field on functions. And after they noticed my reluctance, they routinely dismissed my misgivings with the identical line: ‘Oh, it’s nothing, simply examine the field and also you’ll get the higher hand.’ They weren’t fallacious: I used to be as soon as supplied a $25,000 Martin Luther King scholarship, some huge cash in 1993. Checking the black field was tempting, to say the least. Nevertheless it was a sham. At the moment, the proportion of all blacks on school campuses who have been from decrease financial backgrounds had fallen to the one digits. These college students had been changed by middle- to upper-class blacks, Africans, Caribbeans, and multiracials like me. By checking the black field, I used to be being requested to masks the precise issues and inequities that undermine the efforts of lower-class blacks—all so college administrations may declare the pretense of racial redemption via greater enrollment numbers.” • It wouldn’t be that onerous for universities to make earnings, a proxy for sophistication, the motive force for DEI….
#COVID19
“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the handle given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater stories); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep secure on the market!
Maskstravaganza
“Ear loop respirators/masks don’t present safety as tight becoming RPE” [Health and Safety Executive]. UK. “New HSE analysis has revealed that respirators/masks which depend on ear loops (together with these supplied with clips, ‘snuggers’ or different technique of tightening the match of the masks) to carry the respirator/masks in place, don’t shield individuals adequately when used as tight becoming respiratory protecting gear (RPE)…. Following publication of the earlier Security Alert ‘Use of Face Masks designated KN95‘, in June 2020, the NHS took early motion to exclude ear loop respirators/masks from their provide chain resulting from considerations over their safety. Consequently, respirators with a head harness may have been provided and match take a look at accomplished with this type of respirator.” • I feel readers know this, however simply in case…
Testing and Monitoring
An unsettling risk re: wastewater:
The components could have modified.
The info could also be skewed.
Presumably closely skewed.
TBD.
— Barry Hunt – #DavosSafe (@BarryHunt008) December 13, 2023
Again within the day, earlier than the general public well being institution crippled amassing precise case knowledge, we may crosscheck wastewater knowledge towards it (and vice versa). Not.
I can consider loads of people at Stanford who’re stuffed with it, so:
Appears to me like you will have a cryptic WW-variant shedder in your arms. We have seen single people shed extra virus than whole sewersheds on the peak of their worst Covid wave. Be sure to protect some samples for @SolidEvidence to take a look at. https://t.co/5PFzom5wap
— Ryan Hisner (@LongDesertTrain) December 11, 2023
Transmission
“Janesville Faculty District holding digital lessons Wednesday & Thursday resulting from college students and employees out sick” [KWWL]. “The Janesville Faculty District will likely be shifting lessons nearly on Wednesday and Thursday resulting from 127 college students and 13 employees members at the moment out sick…. “Our employees will likely be the district over the subsequent few days.” • [bangs head on desk].
An infection
“COVID research: 40% of youngsters nonetheless infectious after symptom decision” [Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy]. “A research immediately of viral shedding dynamics in 101 kids who had COVID-19 in the course of the Omicron surge in Toronto exhibits that 40% have been nonetheless infectious on the day after their signs resolved… The median time to symptom decision was 6 days, and 12% of individuals nonetheless had signs at day 10. Total, the median time to non-infectious virus load was 5 days after symptom onset, with 75% of individuals assembly the non-infectious threshold by 7 days, and 90% by 10 days. …. ‘These findings assist the consideration for an infection prevention and management interventions for as much as 10 days publish symptom onset to scale back residual transmission danger round weak or immunocompromised populations,’ the authors stated.” • Delta Airways stated 5 days, so 5 days it’s. And I’m so previous I can bear in mind when kids didn’t get Covid in any respect!
Science Is Popping
Stunning movies:
2) … as a result of the simplification shortly reaches its limits.
Failing to have the ability to handle merely, the most important modifications within the ACE2-TMPRSS2 since Omicron, I’ve determined to come back again FIRST, with two great movies on the operate of ACE2 and TMPRSS, pic.twitter.com/g9lfD4cGI0— Emmanuel (@ejustin46) December 11, 2023
Stunning and terrifying.
“One thing Terrible”
Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” could be a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. A number of exceptionally nasty sequelae, most definitely deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we would add mind injury, together with character modifications therefrom.
* * * “Neurologic Results of SARS-CoV-2 Transmitted amongst Canines” [Emerging Infectious Diseases]. From the Summary: ” On this research, we used a canine transmission mannequin to look at histopathologic modifications within the brains of canine contaminated with SARS-CoV-2. We noticed substantial mind pathology in SARS-CoV-2–contaminated canine, significantly involving blood–mind barrier injury resembling small vessel illness, together with modifications in tight junction proteins, decreased laminin ranges, and decreased pericyte protection. Moreover, we detected phosphorylated tau, a marker of neurodegenerative illness, indicating a possible hyperlink between SARS-CoV-2–related small vessel illness and neurodegeneration. Our findings of degenerative modifications within the canine mind throughout SARS-CoV-2 an infection emphasize the potential for transmission to different hosts and induction of comparable indicators and signs. The dynamic mind modifications in canine spotlight that even asymptomatic people contaminated with SARS-CoV-2 could develop neuropathologic modifications within the mind.” • Ulp.
“That is greater than COVID: Why are so many People dying early?” [Pierre Kory and Mary Beth Pfeiffer, The Hill]. “[T]he most urgent query for insurers, epidemiologists and well being company officers. Why is the historically healthiest sector of our society — younger, employed, insured employees — dying at such charges? Public well being officers aggressively oversaw the pandemic response, for higher or worse. Why aren’t they trying into this?” • The query begging is buried in “oversaw the pandemic response.” Why will we assume that’s the one factor we should always look into, and never the sequelae of Covid itself?
Elite Maleficence
Christmas cheer (1):
The one factor we wish you to unfold this vacation season is love and cheer. Forestall the unfold of #flu, #COVID, and #RSV by getting vaccinated.
Go to https://t.co/2akIUZ14Rd to discover a vaccine close to you. pic.twitter.com/GUllDqrZ7x
— CDC (@CDCgov) December 10, 2023
An outright lie from CDC; Covid vaccines don’t forestall transmission (they don’t seem to be sterlizing, a minimum of the present ones). CDC is so determined to cram the flu, RSV, and Covid into the seasonal respiratory virus field — I assume due to bureaucratic imperatives from an infection management departments, and maybe pharma as properly — that they’ll actually say something, even when, within the case of Covid, their recommendation prices lives.
Christmas cheer (2):
NYS DoH simply despatched a reminder that healthcare employees are required to put on a masks in the event that they have not gotten their flu shot.
It makes zero sense they’re ignoring COVID and never requiring masks for everybody. COVID ranges are excessive, and you may nonetheless unfold it if you’re vaccinated. pic.twitter.com/r5DQz7Vwjd
— Dr. Fortunate Tran (@luckytran) December 12, 2023
A second case of the identical brainworm. Vaccines don’t forestall transmission, so masking must be common.
Case Knowledge
NOT UPDATED From BioBot wastewater knowledge, December 11:
Lambert right here: Eventually Biden’s crushed each one in every of Trump’s earlier spikes, so a spherical of applause for The Large Man. The slight plateauing within the nationwide numbers doesn’t make sense to me as a result of I can’t see an natural cause for it (except the unfold from Thanksgiving is someway being damped out, which appears implausible). I’m guessing backward revision will make the plateau go away. Solely 14 superspreading days till Christmas!
Regional knowledge:
Exhausting to see why the regional cut up (and it certain can be good to have extra granular knowledge). Climate forcing Northerners indoors? Appears facile. There’s snow within the Rockies (inexperienced colour, West), for instance.
Variants
NOT UPDATED From CDC, December 9:
Lambert right here: JN.1, proven on the NowCast for the primary time, arising quick on the skin, whereas BA.2.86 fades.
From CDC, November25:
Lambert right here: I certain hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to amenities minimize by directors of in poor health intent).
CDC: “As of Might 11, genomic surveillance knowledge will likely be reported biweekly, primarily based on the supply of constructive take a look at specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice per week; semiweekly.” Appears like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.
Covid Emergency Room Visits
NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, December 2:
Lambert right here: Slight will increase in some age teams, conforming to wastewater knowledge. Solely per week’s lag, so this can be our greatest present nationwide, present indicator.
NOTE “Charts and knowledge offered by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous 12 months, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not the complete pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “identical to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is suitable for eachMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these individuals a lot. Discover additionally that this chart exhibits, a minimum of for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, regardless that CDC is making an attempt to get us to imagine that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the present institutional equipment for injections. And naturally, we’re not even moving into the standard of the wastewater websites that we have now as a proxy for Covid an infection total.
Hospitalization
Bellwether New York Metropolis, knowledge as of December 13:
Steadily up. New York state as an entire seems to be extra like a spike. (I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading, though the hospital-centric public well being institution loves it, hospitalization and deaths being the one metrics that matter [snort]).
NOT UPDATED Right here’s a distinct CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, a minimum of. December 2:
Up, up, up!
Lambert right here: “Maps, charts, and knowledge offered by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So the place the heck is the replace, CDC?
Positivity
NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, December 11:
0.5%. Up. (It will be fascinating to survey this inhabitants usually; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and massive peer stress, went and bought examined anyhow.)
NOT UPDATED From Cleveland Clinic, December 2:
Lambert right here: Improve (with backward revision; guess they thought it was over). I do know that is simply Ohio, however the Cleveland Clinic is nice*, and we’re starved for knowledge, so…. NOTE * Even when hospital an infection management is making an attempt to kill sufferers by eliminating common masking with N95s.
NOT UPDATED From CDC, traveler’s knowledge, November 20:
Turning upward.
Down, albeit within the rear view mirror. And listed here are the variants for vacationers, November 20:
BA.2.86 zipping proper alongside. If this knowledge have been delivered in something like a well timed style, it could be a fairly good predictor.
Deaths
NOT UPDATED Right here is the New York Occasions, primarily based on CDC knowledge, December 2:
That absolutely the numbers of deaths are down, however the proportion of deaths is up, is fascinating.
Stats Watch
There are not any official statistics of curiosity immediately.
Transport: “How Does the Panama Canal Slowdown Have an effect on Transport Contracts?” [Maritime Executive]. “The Panama Canal considerably reduces the time and distance for vessels to journey between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. It usually operates all 12 months spherical, 24 hours a day, and statistics present that about 13,000 to 14,000 vessels cross the Canal yearly. Nevertheless, the area has not too long ago been affected by its worst drought for over 70 years. Consequently, and for the primary time ever, the Panama Canal Authority has needed to restrict the variety of vessels crossing the Canal. The standard common is about 36 vessels per day. This was decreased to roughly 32 in June 2023 and, as of November 2023, the quantity is all the way down to solely 25. It’s anticipated that this quantity will likely be additional decreased to 18 slots a day from February 2024. In addition to this, the Authority has additionally needed to cut back the draft restrict from 50ft to 44ft. This imposes a restrict on the scale of a ship which may go via the canal, and in consequence, the quantity of cargo that passes via. With the scenario worsening, vessels are having to attend for much longer than regular earlier than they’ll go via the Canal. The delays induced have impacted the broader international provide chain and already elevated prices in consequence. The delays are pushing transport charges upwards in different areas, with fewer vessels being out there for longer routes.”
Large Pharma: “Pfizer shares sink after it resets 2024 COVID expectations” [Reuters]. “Pfizer on Wednesday forecast 2024 gross sales that could possibly be as a lot as $5 billion under Wall Avenue expectations, a transfer high executives stated offered a extra dependable view of its COVID-19 enterprise than it had this 12 months, driving shares all the way down to a 10-year low…. Income from Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine and therapy, which peaked at $57 billion in 2022, at the moment are anticipated to be $8 billion in 2024, an extra drop from the $13 billion analysts’ forecast and Pfizer’s personal lowered view of $12.5 billion for this 12 months…. COVID vaccination within the U.S. have dropped sharply with nearly 17% of the eligible inhabitants getting the newest up to date boosters due partly to concerning the virus, in addition to … Citi analyst Andrew Baum stated Pfizer’s administration is performing with rising urgency to deal with its weak inventory efficiency. Nevertheless, the absence of promising high-potential pipeline belongings makes it troublesome for the corporate with a number of Pfizer merchandise anticipated to go off patent within the subsequent few years.” • No matter “vaccine fatigue” is; it will get tiring monitoring the pseudo-concepts. Not a phrase about liabilities, although.
Tech: “X outage breaks all outgoing hyperlinks, once more” [The Verge]. “All outgoing hyperlinks from X are at the moment damaged. An issue with the URL redirect that captures exercise earlier than sending customers on their method is at the moment main individuals to a easy error web page saying, ‘This web page is down. I scream. You scream. All of us scream… for us to repair this web page. We’ll cease making jokes and get issues up and operating quickly.’ If this sounds acquainted, it’s as a result of one thing comparable occurred in March.”
At this time’s Concern & Greed Index: 66 Greed (earlier shut: 67 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 63 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Dec 13 at 1:54:48 PM ET. Amidst all of the chaos and insanity, the Greed quantity remembers fairly steady. Volatility is nice for hypothesis, I suppose.
Zeitgeist Watch
“Why dictionary.com’s phrase of the 12 months is ‘hallucinate’” [CBS]. “There was a forty five% enhance in dictionary lookups for ‘hallucinate’ when in comparison with final 12 months, in keeping with the positioning. There was an identical enhance in searches for the noun type ‘hallucination.’ Total, there was a 62% year-over-year spike in dictionary lookups for AI-related phrases. Our selection of hallucinate because the 2023 Phrase of the Yr represents our assured projection that AI will show to be one of the crucial consequential developments of our lifetime,” Barrett and Nick Norlen, dictionary.com’s senior editor, stated in a publish. “Knowledge and lexicographical concerns apart, hallucinate appears becoming for a time in historical past during which new applied sciences can really feel just like the stuff of desires or fiction—particularly after they produce fictions of their very own.’” • Not simply “new applied sciences”…
Information of the Wired
“‘Biocomputer’ combines lab-grown mind tissue with digital {hardware}” [Nature]. “Researchers have constructed a hybrid biocomputer — combining a laboratory-grown human mind tissue with standard digital circuits — that may full duties similar to voice recognition…. The researchers name the system Brainoware. It makes use of mind organoids — bundles of tissue-mimicking human cells which can be utilized in analysis to mannequin organs. Organoids are comprised of stem cells able to specialising into various kinds of cells. On this case, they have been morphed into neurons, akin to these present in our brains. The analysis goals to construct ‘a bridge between AI and organoids’, says research co-author Feng Guo, a bioengineer on the College of Indiana Bloomington. Some AI methods depend on an online of interconnected nodes, generally known as a neural community, in a method much like how the mind capabilities. ‘We wished to ask the query of whether or not we are able to leverage the organic neural community throughout the mind organoid for computing,’ he says.” • Oh good. “Mind Perform As A Service.” I scent enterprise mannequin!
Contact data for crops: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a examine if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photographs of crops. Greens are wonderful! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you would like your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it in the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From IM:
IM writes: “Some fall photographs from the rim of the continent…a giant leaf maple making its annual contribution to carbon recycling. By Englishman River Falls, on Vancouver Island. Word: no leaf blowers.”
Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not coated by the annual NC fundraiser. So if you happen to see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see wherever else, please don’t hesitate to specific your appreciation in tangible type. Bear in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common constructive suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. Once I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get nervous. Extra tangibly, a relentless trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I think about that trickle when setting fundraising targets:
Right here is the display that may seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:
When you hate PayPal, you possibly can electronic mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I offers you instructions on tips on how to ship a examine. Thanks!
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