2:00PM Water Cooler 12/6/2022 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Fowl Track of the Day

Chestnut-eared Bunting, Buryatia, Russia. “A number of cuts from a male hen, principally perched on wire fences on the fringe of grassy pastures and steppe not removed from a marsh.” Actually pretty. And 4 minutes lengthy!

Politics

“However what’s authorities itself, however the biggest of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51

“Right here’s meals for thought, had Ahab time to suppose; however Ahab by no means thinks; he solely feels, feels, feels” –Herman Melville, Moby Dick

“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in reality a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Capitol Seizure

“Home January 6 committee has determined to make prison referrals, chairman says” [CNN]. Good. Let’s have it out. Besides: “The Home choose committee investigating the January 6, 2021, assault on the US Capitol has determined to make prison referrals to the Division of Justice, the panel’s chairman, Rep. Bennie Thompson, advised reporters Tuesday.Thompson, a Mississippi Democrat, stated .” Oh for pity’s sake. Cease teasing. Extra: “Nonetheless, the concept of a prison referral of Trump, even when fully symbolic in nature, has hung like a shadow over the panel because it was first fashioned, and lots of members felt it was a mandatory measure so as to full its work.” • If the partitions are closing in, cost Trump. In the event that they’re not, don’t. This isn’t laborious!

Biden Administration

“REAL ID enforcement is delayed once more to 2025” [NPR]. • That’s a rattling disgrace.

“Unique: Musk’s Neuralink faces federal probe, worker backlash over animal assessments” [Reuters]. • Horrid undertaking, curious timing.

“Greater than 70% of voters in ballot need Biden to launch secret JFK assassination data” [NBC]. “Greater than 7 in 10 voters need President Joe Biden to honor a dedication he made final yr and launch the ultimate trove of JFK assassination data on Dec. 15, in response to a ballot launched Tuesday in coordination with a analysis group that sued the administration to drive extra doc disclosure.” • Wait. You’re telling me Biden didn’t honor a dedication?

“Pelosi, Democrats search string of victories in remaining days” [The Hill]. “Maybe probably the most outstanding proposal on the docket is the Respect for Marriage Act, which would offer federal protections for same-sex marriage nationwide. These rights have been explicitly denied by the 1996 Protection of Marriage Act, which Pelosi had fiercely opposed, breaking on the time together with her White Home ally in President Clinton.” • Lol, what about codifying abortion?

2022

I don’t find out about pack journalism, however based mostly on these headlines, “pack editorship” is a factor.

GA: “5 issues to observe within the Georgia Senate runoff” [The Hill]. Can Election Day turnout save Walker? Are the polls mistaken, once more? How does Trump react? Has Walker misplaced the center? Does Warnock thank Biden? • Warnock owes me 600 bucks.

GA: “Georgia Senate race between Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker: 5 issues to observe” [Los Angeles Times]. How lengthy will voters have to attend in line? Will early turnout in Democratic strongholds push Warnock over the road? Or will the GOP base pack the polls on election day? Will Trump’s affect make a distinction both method? Will swing voters present up for Warnock?

GA: “5 issues to observe as Georgia decides Warnock vs. Walker Senate runoff” [CNN]. Turnout growth or bust? Democrats search a real majority. Trump’s final shot at a Senate win. Kemp appears to one-up Trump another time. Georgia, a swing state? We’ll see.

* * *

AZ: “Arizona certifies 2022 election outcomes amid risk of extra GOP challenges” [The Hill]. “Arizona officers licensed the state’s vote canvass on Monday, formally declaring winners within the high-profile gubernatorial and Senate races, amongst different contests, as GOP figures vow to struggle the election leads to court docket. The as soon as low-profile certification course of become a fierce battle between election officers, Republican candidates and a few county boards because the GOP seized on printer malfunctions within the state’s most populous county, partially main Arizona to change into an epicenter for voter disenfranchisement allegations. Election officers have acknowledged mishaps however insist no voter was disenfranchised. Some GOP figures and their supporters claimed officers have been mendacity, unsuccessfully calling on county boards to not certify their canvasses in current days earlier than turning their ire to Monday’s state-level certification. However Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (D), who’s now governor-elect, Gov. Doug Ducey (R), state Lawyer Normal Mark Brnovich (R) and Arizona Supreme Courtroom Chief Justice Robert Brutinel nonetheless met to canvass final month’s election on Monday, a timeline mandated by state legislation.”

2024

“EXCLUSIVE: Biden’s married, non-binary nuclear waste guru who stole lady’s $2,325 bag from airport hosted SPANKING seminar at kink convention simply weeks later – beneath ‘NuclearNerd’ nickname that’s nonetheless in use on fetish hookup web site” [Daily Mail]. • 2024 goes to be so ugly.

* * *

SC: “Biden Is Placing South Carolina First. I Received’t Vote for That.” [Faiz Shakir, New York Times]. “The 2020 caucuses in Iowa — the state that has been first on the calendar for many years — have been a catastrophe.” No, it wasn’t. It was theft, for which, satirically, Iowa Democrats weren’t rewarded. Extra: “Everyone knows why South Carolina received the nod. President Biden, Consultant Jim Clyburn and lots of of his high supporters have been buoyed by their marketing campaign’s comeback in February 2020 when the state delivered Mr. Biden his first victory of the season — and an enormous one at that…. South Carolina will not be a battleground state: Mr. Trump carried it by double digits in 2020. It’s far more ideologically and culturally conservative than our celebration and our nation. And the state will not be trending in any method towards the Democratic Occasion.” • Shakir does perceive that making SC first is a payoff to Clyburn. Shakir both doesn’t perceive or can’t say that (a) the Black Misleadership Class, as embodied by Clyburn and the Congressional Black Caucus, is deeply corrupt and reactionary, (b) that Biden is rigging the first for Harris, and (c) that Biden, and liberal Democrats normally, are ensuring that one other Sanders doesn’t emerge, ever once more. (A distant risk, however… the precautionary precept.) Have the cries of “racism” already begun? Why sure, sure they’ve!

SC: “Biden and Sanders worlds are once more at loggerheads over South Carolina” [Politico]. ““Zero tolerance — ZERO for any disrespect or dismissal of Black voters,” Democratic Nationwide Committee Chairman JAIME HARRISON wrote on Twitter whereas retweeting an analogous critique. PATRICK DILLON, a Democratic strategist whose spouse, JEN O’MALLEY DILLON, is Biden’s deputy chief of employees, tweeted Shakir’s piece with this remark: ‘Needed to learn this twice simply to substantiate that it doesn’t point out Black voters even as soon as.’ Shakir, in our interview, was unmoved by his critics. ‘It’s a really insulting strategy to counsel that someway we don’t care about Black voters as a result of we predict South Carolina shouldn’t go first. Come on. Get actual.’ He added that he’d help Georgia going first, mentioning that it’s extra various and has a better proportion of Black voters than South Carolina. He stated he would slightly see Nevada on the head of the pack however would favor any of the opposite first 5 in Biden’s plan — which additionally contains New Hampshire, Michigan, and Georgia — to go first over South Carolina.” Loads of Black voters in Michigan and Georgia. However Biden must repay Clyburn. ““And ensuring that the Democratic celebration’s most loyal voters — Black voters — are on the entrance of the road and never behind the bus appears like one thing nobody ought to be arguing about.” • The Democrats aren’t placing Black voters “on the entrance of the road,” which they may do with Georgia, a swing state, simply as properly. They’re placing Clyburn within the driver’s seat of the bus, and his reactionary and corrupt political machine within the driver’s seat for the forseeable future. It’s a payoff and a option to cripple the left, to the extent there’s a left. So naturally the liberals get all huffy and begin preening.

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, plainly individuals are truly studying the back-dated put up! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are lots of updates. So I must do this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Occasion (“the Democrat Occasion is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated put up, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “dwell” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Occasion is, in reality, a tough drawback. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Occasion is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Occasion didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” in fact.) Second, all of the working elements of the Occasion reinforce one another. Go away apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Occasion (ka-ching, however not fully) these components comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with belongings within the press and the intelligence neighborhood.

Notice, in fact, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

Talking of election denial:

pic.twitter.com/W2TCgXaZsr

— Defiant L’s (@DefiantLs) December 2, 2022

Realignment and Legitimacy

‘Tis a thriller!

The central thriller of Bankman-Fried’s political giving is whether or not the crypto government had an ulterior motive in backing congressional candidates.https://t.co/Rd7wgo40ty

— Los Angeles Instances (@latimes) December 6, 2022

“America’s Poll-Harvesting Capital Is in Suburban Philly” [RealClearPolitics]. “Many neighborhoods in Delaware County might be sparsely inhabited throughout the summer season, with trip locations of the Jersey Shore or Poconos only a brief automobile drive away. That didn’t matter to Delaware County’s Democratic organizers, who continued working right here. Delaware County’s Democratic candidates relentlessly knocked on doorways all through the summer season, carrying mail-in poll functions for voters. The candidates’ volunteers and paid canvassers did the identical, figuring out that 85% of those that apply will solid a poll. These votes have been within the financial institution earlier than Labor Day.” • Completely, 100% mistaken mistaken mistaken. What this prolonged article reveals is that function of early voting/vote by mail/poll harvesting is tribal loyalty, pure and easy. That is fully undemocratic (see right here and right here). Why don’t we simply overlook about ballots fully? Individuals can simply put on the suitable T-shirt and we’ll depend them by drone or safety digital camera.

#COVID19

Lambert right here: Eric Topol has known as a winter surge (or “wave”) of Covid. I’m however a humble tapewatcher, however I’m reluctant to take action. (Partly as a result of I do know my temperament, and I’ve sturdy priors. So “I received’t as a result of all of me needs to,” as Sam Spade says.) Topol’s view is the institution view: Hospital-centric. Mine is infection-centric. I don’t see the acceleration or doubling in circumstances that I might count on to see based mostly on previous surges. Granted, Boston (wastewater) and New York (hospitalization) are each accelerating, they’re good knowledge, and so they could possibly be main indicators (which is why I selected them). They may be flashes within the pan. (Maybe I must take a rigorous take a look at wastewater, as for instance in San Francisco (charts take endlessly to load).) So we’ll see. Let’s wait and see what the rest of the vacation season brings. Reader dialogue on this vital level is welcome. Nonetheless–

Keep protected on the market: Excessive transmission (CDC), the elevation of positivity (Walgreens), the regular takeover of BQ.1* (CDC; Walgreens), together with elevated hospitalization in BQ.1* hotbed New York, plus a wastewater surge in Boston are all greater than somewhat unsettling (as is the obvious proliferation of variants). As one may count on firstly of a vacation surge, wastewater in Queens County, NY (JFK/LGA), Prepare dinner County, IL (ORD), and Los Angeles County (LAX) continues to be elevated. In case you are planning to journey on Xmas, do take into account your plans rigorously.

If, over the vacations, you intend to remain in a lodge, from an HVAC engineer:

• Maskravaganza: “CDC encourages individuals to put on masks to assist stop unfold of Covid, flu and RSV over the vacations” [CNBC]. Walenksy is so, so dangerous:

“We additionally you to put on a high-quality, well-fitting masks to forestall the unfold of respiratory sicknesses,” stated Walensky, including that individuals residing in areas with excessive ranges of Covid transmission ought to particularly masking.

“Encourage.” “Contemplate.” That’s an actual profile in braveness. And the burden is all on “you,” the person. Absolutely Walensky is aware of that workplaces will solely act based mostly on steering? I really like additionally that Walensky recommends monitoring transmission when CDC buries the transmission map. Keep in mind the lady who known as CDC to seek out it, and the great girl on the opposite finish of the road tried for half an hour and failed?

The CDC director stated the company is contemplating increasing its system of Covid neighborhood ranges to take note of different respiratory viruses such because the flu. The system is the premise for when CDC advises the general public to put on masks. However Walensky inspired individuals to take proactive motion.

Pricey gawd. Walensky is doubling down on “neighborhood ranges” [bangs head on desk]. On the intense aspect, she waited till properly after the midterms.

“” Walensky stated. “We might encourage all of these preventive measures — hand washing, staying residence whenever you’re sick, masking, elevated air flow — throughout respiratory virus season, however particularly in areas of excessive Covid-19 neighborhood ranges.”

A-a-a-n-d Walensky doubles down on the horrid “neighborhood ranges” metric as soon as extra. And “one needn’t.” Who does Walensky suppose she is? The Queen of England?

• Anyhow, why would anyone consider Walensky about something?

• Mastravaganza: A maskless convention of immunologists:

You’ll by no means guess what occurred!

• Maskstravaganza: One other maskless convention, this time at WHO:

And talking of WHO:

• WHO nonetheless rejects airborne transmission of Covid:

The Hague for these individuals. I’m not kidding. (Navarro’s bio: “Particular Envoy of @WHO DG on #COVID19, Co-Director of @Imperial_IGHI & Strategic Director of @4SD_info – Expertise, Programs & Synergies for Sustainable Improvement.” Deeply, deeply embedded within the community of globalist NGOs, unsurprisingly.)

• “Examine Evaluating Surgical and N95 Masks Sparks Concern” [MedScape]. Here’s a politely phrased takedown of the research from CIDRAP. From reminiscence: Conly is an Infectious Illness specialist (dangerous) from Alberta (worse), a droplet goon (even worse), and is a gatekeeper at WHO in opposition to each masks and airborne transmission. He’s the dunce who saved yammering about the necessity to weigh the harms of masks in opposition to the advantages, and when pressed on the harms, got here up with… zits. Versus vascular and neurological injury. The Hague for Conly too.

• A greater world is feasible:

• Inhaled Chinese language vaccines:

Notice the label: Adenovirus.

Instances

Only for one other angle, I went again, quickly, to the case knowledge (which I do know severely underestimates precise circumstances by an order of magnitude, since individuals take a look at at residence). Right here is the yearly knowledge:

And right here is the information for the final 4 weeks:

No matter the place the baseline is, I count on doubling conduct in a surge, and I’m not seeing it right here. This knowledge appears like a protracted, grinding slog. “A pandemic we are able to’t shake,” because it have been.

Transmission

Right here is CDC’s interactive map by county set to neighborhood transmission (the “crimson map”). (That is the map CDC wants only hospitals to look at, not you.)

Lambert right here: The powers-that-be don’t even see transmission as an issue, clearly. However you may!

Positivity

From the Walgreen’s take a look at positivity tracker, revealed December 3:

2.3%. Yesterday was 4.1% (4.3%). A slight slackening.

Wastewater

Wastewater knowledge (CDC), December 1:

JFK/LGA, Queens County continues to be crimson; ORD, Prepare dinner County is orange; LAX, Los Angeles County is orange. I might wager that speckling of crimson in Utah is sky nation. Keep protected when travelling.

November 28:

And MWRA knowledge, December 1:

Lambert right here: I hesitate to say “going vertical.” Seems to be vertical to me.

Variants

Lambert right here: It’s past irritating how sluggish the variant knowledge is. Does no one within the public well being institution get a promotion for monitoring variants? Are there no grants? Is there a single lab that does this work, and all people will get the outcomes from them? [grinds teeth, bangs head on desk]. UPDATE Sure. See NC right here on Pango. Each Friday, a stately, educational tempo completely incompatible with defending your self in opposition to a variant exhibiting doubling conduct.

UPDATED Variant knowledge, nationwide (Walgreens), November 19:

Lambert right here: BQ.1* dominating. XBB arising on the skin.

NOT UPDATED Variant knowledge, nationwide (CDC), November 12 (Nowcast off):

BQ.1* shifting alongside fairly briskly. Notice the looks of XBB, and see the highlighted observe: Like BQ.1*, XBB seems all of the sudden when CDC decides to disaggregate the information. Precisely as with CDC’s notorious “inexperienced map,” a lag is launched, this time by CDC’s decision-making course of; Walgreens had XBB final week, however CDC has it solely this week. I don’t see what function the aggregation serves. If the problem is a jillion low-circulation variants would make the desk impossibly lengthy and complicated for customers, that’s a UI/UX challenge; deal with it with software program. Have a slider/filter that aggregates variants beneath 1%, say. Permit scrolling the outcomes. No matter. However cease concealing knowledge!

New York/New Jersey (Area 2) numbers are greater. BQ.1.* is dominating:

• As a examine, since New York is a BQ.1* hotbed, New York hospitalization, up to date December 3:

Lambert right here: I see improve, however not acceleration.

Deaths

Demise fee (Our World in Information):

Whole: 1,106,990 – 1,106,378 = 612 (612 * 365 = 223,380 deaths per yr, right this moment’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “residing with” Covid (fairly a bit greater than the minimizers would love, although they’ll discuss themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I may should resolve that is what the powers-that-be take into account “mission achieved” for this explicit tranche of demise and illness). NOTE Not fairly honest, since I missed Monday.

It’s good that for deaths I’ve a easy, every day chart that simply retains chugging alongside, in contrast to every little thing else CDC and the White Home are screwing up or letting go darkish, good job.

Stats Watch

Provide Chain: “United States LMI Logistics Managers Index Present” [Trading Economics]. “The Logistics Supervisor’s Index within the US fell for a second month to 53.6 in November 2022 from 57.5 in October. It’s the second lowest studying ever, solely surpassing 51.3 in April 2020 on the peak of COVID-19 lockdowns. The slowdown in logistics progress was largely because of the long-anticipated wind down in Stock Ranges (54.8), prompted by the motion of products downstream in direction of retailers and the sale of these items as vacation spending picks up.”

The Bezzle: “Uber Eats and Chicago Attain $10 Million Settlement Over Misleading Practices” [Eater]. “Within the settlement, the town contends that Uber ‘listed unaffiliated Retailers on its Platforms with out consent’ and ‘deceptively marketed that Eats Cross and Postmates Limitless subscribers would obtain ‘free supply’ or ‘$0 Supply Charges.’” • What, I assumed Uber was purported to be clear after Kalanick left?

Tech: An extended thread on Google’s crapification:

Goodhart’s legislation: “Any noticed statistical regularity will are likely to collapse as soon as strain is positioned upon it for management functions,” or simplified: “each measure which turns into a goal turns into a nasty measure.” For instance, Google pagerank.

At the moment’s Concern & Greed Index: 61 Greed (earlier shut: 65 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 63 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Dec 6 at 1:54 PM EST.

Rapture Index: Closes down one on Oil Provide/Value. “Oil has declined to $80 per barrel” [Rapture Ready]. Report Excessive, October 10, 2016: 189. Present: 186. (Keep in mind that bringing on the Rapture is good.)

E-book Nook

The creator:

His “radical flip”:

His e book:

Conspiracy Principle in America looks as if a subject it could be helpful to have scholarly, and fashionable, perspective on. Does anybody know the place I can discover a PDF? I’ve appeared, with out success.

“Panorama, Change, and the Lengthy Highway Forward” [Orion]. “Le Guin’s ‘The Left Hand of Darkness’ is a basic for its portrayal of gender, however is it additionally generally, for the trendy reader, a local weather change parable?…. Local weather disaster is about extremes, and in The Left Hand of Darkness cultures are formed by an immeasurably hostile bodily atmosphere. The coldness of the place, which forces adaptation to its situations and discourages sure sorts of danger. The actual fact the nations of Winter don’t interact in warfare constitutes one distinctive manifestation of this adaptation to an excessive atmosphere. Full-scale battle, versus minor sorties, skirmishes, particular person feuds, merely appears alien to the nations of Winter. …. Right here on Earth, we’re blessed, or have been blessed, with residing on a planet with a variety of climates, a lot of which have been delicate or pretty straightforward to adapt to. This isn’t to say that there haven’t been horrible durations of famine and privation even earlier than the local weather disaster, however we’ve got additionally been allowed the luxurious of a variety of acts of the creativeness not obtainable to the planet Winter. We have now, for instance, in really horrible methods, been allowed the “luxurious” of warfare. Even when restoration from this luxurious has different relying on circumstances of assets and panorama as properly.” • I’m unsure I agree with this studying. However it’s a delicate studying nonetheless.

The Gallery

“Pitiless misogynist?” [Times Literary Supplement (AL)]. “[Lucien Freud’s] biographer William Feaver says that Freud’s portrait of the Queen, on present right here, “wasn’t so totally different from the 1952 head of Francis Bacon”. Each are small. Each are painted near. Bacon and Freud sat with their knees virtually touching – not the case with Her Majesty. Each required many sittings. The royal portrait took a yr, the Bacon two or three months. The Queen was captured on canvas, Bacon on a copper plate. And there’s something copperplate in regards to the Bacon portrait – meticulous, managed, uniform, classical, a superb train in Ingres element and end. A part of the portrait’s energy is the best way it fills the house precisely, so the impression of mass is created, although the portray is small, cognate, you may say, with an Elizabethan miniature, a Nicholas Hilliard or an Isaac Oliver. The end is quasi-enamel. It resists revealing its course of. The portrait of the Queen is all course of and brushstrokes. You see the Queen and also you see the painter at work. The Bacon was painted in 1952, the Queen in 2001. In some unspecified time in the future within the center Fifties, beneath the affect of Bacon – whose portrait heads are wipes, approximate, assured swipes, gestural and kinetic, heads in movement – Freud modified his brushes from high-quality sable to coarse hog’s hair Filbert brushes. Which is why the 2 portraits are completely totally different from one another. Feaver experiences that when Richard Hamilton advised Freud that his portray was now not tenable – “You may’t work in your fashion these days” – Freud replied that it was ‘the one method he may work’. Which means realism.”

Freud (1):

Freud (2):

Bacon:

Bacon’s work at all times remind me of…. bacon (solely visually). Am I the one one?

Class Warfare

“Lengthy Social Distancing” [NBER]. “Greater than ten % of Individuals with current work expertise say they may proceed social distancing after the COVID-19 pandemic ends, and one other 45 % will achieve this in restricted methods. We uncover this Lengthy Social Distancing phenomenon in our month-to-month Survey of Working Preparations and Attitudes. It’s extra frequent amongst older individuals, ladies, the much less educated, those that earn much less, and in occupations and industries that require many face-to-face encounters. Individuals who intend to proceed social distancing have decrease labor drive participation – unconditionally, and conditional on demographics and different controls…. Financial reasoning and proof counsel that Lengthy Social Distancing and its results will persist for a lot of months or years.” • That’s an amazingly excessive variety of wise individuals, given the depth of the propaganda and the forces arrayed in opposition to them. Possibly the Fed must crack the whip tougher?

Silicon Valley’s labor aristocrats have been using for a fall:

Seems that as a substitute of scarfing down the free lunches and massages + combating about idpol, they need to have been organizing unions. Ah properly, however.

Information of the Wired

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