2:00PM Water Cooler 3/21/2023 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Chicken Music of the Day

Wooden Thrush, Lander, MD. C&O canal at Lander, Frederick, Maryland, United States. “Chicken singing away from the parabola.” Appears to be a duet?

Politics

“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in actual fact a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Biden Administration

“Two Americas Index: Arms off Social Safety and Medicare” [Axios]. “Practically 9 in 10 Individuals say they oppose decreasing spending on Social Safety or Medicare, in line with new polling from our Axios-Ipsos Two Americas Index. The overwhelming consensus (96% of Democrats, 84% of Republicans) explains why any discuss of chopping these packages has turn into a political lightning rod, at the same time as lawmakers on each side of the aisle acknowledge potential issues relating to long-term solvency.” • Solvency, feh.

2024

Trump not arrested! As of this writing…

“How an Outdated Affidavit Might Undercut Trump’s Future Protection within the Stormy Daniels Case” [DNYUZ]. “Among the many challenges, a few of these defenders say, is proving Trump’s intent—a surreal dilemma that has flummoxed authorized analysts for years. ‘Bragg must show that Trump not solely understood the complicated and convoluted marketing campaign legal guidelines that few individuals comprehend, however that he meant to violate them,’ Fox Information commentator Greg Jarrett wrote on Monday. However in the case of charging Trump, that perennial concern may really be the least of Bragg’s issues. That’s as a result of, again in 2000, Trump submitted a sworn affidavit to the Federal Election Fee demonstrating a posh understanding of among the identical marketing campaign finance legal guidelines that now seem central to Bragg’s case. ‘I neither reimbursed, nor brought on every other particular person to reimburse, any worker of Trump Lodges & On line casino Resorts, Inc. or its subsidiaries for his or her contribution to Gormley for Senate,’ Trump[‘s attorneys] wrote on the time. The affidavit, submitted as a part of an FEC investigation right into a Trump-hosted fundraising occasion for a Senate candidate, additionally contained sworn statements that Trump had acted ‘solely in my particular person capability’—not as a company official—and ‘took no motion, of any nature, type or description, to compel or stress any worker’ to make a donation. That case was pretty complicated for a layperson, and it pressured Trump[‘s attorneys] to develop and specific a classy understanding of particular federal marketing campaign finance legal guidelines. By the tip of the ordeal, Trump would have been [hmm] intimately conversant in why companies and third events (‘straw donors’) couldn’t make a contribution—together with in-kind contributions—to candidates for federal workplace.” • Regardless of my bracketed feedback, hmm. Many of the protection focuses on “hush cash.” However as a way to “make a Federal case out of it,” Bragg must discover a violation of a Federal legislation (hopefully a felony). This he could possibly do, if he can present that Trump knowingly violated Federal marketing campaign finance legislation. Maybe Bragg — and keep in mind, the New York Democrat Get together institution has rather a lot to show, not simply in courtroom — could make that exhibiting. I’m doubtful. I’m additionally very doubtful that anyone would or ought to go to jail over such a violation, helpful although that might be for Trump, electorally.

“Make No Mistake, the Investigation of Donald Trump and the Stormy Daniels Scheme Is Critical” [Lawrence Tribe, New York Times]. “[Is] the Manhattan felony case is an instance of selective prosecution — in different phrases, going after a political enemy for a criminal offense that nobody else could be charged with? Not by an extended shot. To start with, Mr. Trump’s former lawyer Michael Cohen, who was instrumental within the scheme, has already pleaded responsible to a federal crime emanating from this conduct and served time for it and different crimes. Federal prosecutors instructed the courtroom that Mr. Cohen ‘acted in coordination with and on the path of” Mr. Trump (recognized as ‘Particular person 1’). It will be anathema to the rule of legislation to not prosecute the principal for the crime when a lower-level conspirator has been prosecuted. Mr. Bragg, nevertheless, has needed to decide up the slack, since federal prosecutors haven’t pursued such expenses, for causes that had been clear beneath the corrupt affect of William Barr. As a state prosecutor, Mr. Bragg can not carry the identical federal marketing campaign finance cost to which Mr. Cohen pleaded responsible.” So “anethema” applies throughout jurisdictions? Extra: “As a state prosecutor, Mr. Bragg can not carry the identical federal marketing campaign finance cost to which Mr. Cohen pleaded responsible. He has numerous choices nonetheless. New York district legal professional workplaces have usually charged a criminal offense of submitting a false enterprise report, each as a felony and as a misdemeanor. The crime is a transparent felony whether it is achieved with intent to assist or cowl up one other crime and in any other case is a misdemeanor.” However: “Whereas the analogy to Mr. Trump is imperfect, since paying hush cash is just not itself unlawful, in his case the false ‘authorized charge’ data seem to have furthered and coated up New York state tax fraud (the false Cohen tax filings) and the failure to report Trump marketing campaign contributions.” • That’s it? That’s actually it? It’s humorous how every of Tribe’s arguments comes out sturdy… after which Tribe undercuts himself.

“Manhattan DA points scathing response to GOP letter on attainable Trump indictment: ‘We won’t be intimidated’” [FOX]. “‘We won’t be intimidated by makes an attempt to undermine the justice course of, nor will we let baseless accusations deter us from pretty making use of the legislation,’ a spokesperson for Bragg’s workplace instructed Fox Information Digital. ‘In each prosecution, we observe the legislation with out concern or favor to uncover the reality. Our expert, trustworthy and [Oxford comma-less] devoted attorneys stay onerous at work,’ the spokesperson added. Home Judiciary Committee Chairman Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, and the opposite prime Republicans on the Administration and Oversight committees on Monday despatched a letter to Bragg demanding that he flip over paperwork associated to his Trump investigation and testify earlier than Congress after studies stated Trump may face an indictment this week.”

“Trump in panic mode as he braces for doubtless expenses in Stormy Daniels case” [Guardian]. The partitions are closing in! “Trump’s put up was nothing greater than guesswork about when Alvin Bragg may carry expenses, sources near Trump stated, after he noticed media reporting that the district legal professional’s workplace had contacted the US Secret Service about safety within the occasion of an indictment…. However the frenzied posts from Trump mirrored his deep panic and anxiousness over the imminence and probability of felony expenses, the sources stated, not least as a result of he’s powerless to cease the district legal professional’s workplace from transferring ahead with a case that can take the US into new authorized territory as Trump revs up his 2024 marketing campaign for the Republican presidential nomination…. Trump has expressed curiosity in showing in particular person on the Manhattan felony courtroom, the place he believes he can flip proceedings right into a spectacle earlier than a gaggle of reporters, sources stated, and raised the prospect on Saturday afternoon as he travelled to Oklahoma for an NCAA wrestling championship.” • That doesn’t sound very panicked to me.

“Trump Sweats an Arrest. We Ought to Sweat a Second Time period.” [Timothy L. O’Brien, Bloomberg]. “He clearly fears being handcuffed, fingerprinted and perp-walked earlier than TV cameras and the media, as anybody would. It’s a felony case, so the specter of winding up behind bars looms.” • I don’t suppose that’s clear in any respect. Filed beneath “Opinion.”

* * *

“DeSantis says Florida is ‘blueprint for America’s revival’” [WWJ]. “”The Florida Blueprint is an easy components: be keen to steer, have the braveness of your convictions, ship on your constituents, and reap the political rewards. This can be a blueprint for America’s revival. We’ve proven it may be achieved,” DeSantis wrote in his guide…. “The battles we’ve fought in Florida — from defeating the biomedical safety state to stifling woke companies to preventing indoctrination in faculties — strike on the coronary heart of what it means to be a Floridian and an American,” DeSantis wrote…. DeSantis even took time to take a shot at Trump, who maintains he will likely be arrested this week, throughout a information convention in Panama Metropolis, Florida. ;I don’t know what goes into paying hush cash to a porn star to safe silence over some sort of alleged affair,’ DeSantis stated. ‘I simply, I can’t converse to that.’ Too quick? Extra: “Persevering with his remarks, DeSantis once more highlighted his deal with his present place, saying, ‘I’ve bought actual points to take care of right here within the state of Florida.’”

* * *

“Biden zeroing in on candidates to be his 2024 marketing campaign supervisor” [The Hill]. “Jenn Ridder, who served as nationwide states director for Biden’s 2020 bid, is claimed to be a number one contender for the marketing campaign supervisor job, sources inform The Hill. Sam Cornale, the manager director of the Democratic Nationwide Committee (DNC), has additionally been mentioned as a number one candidate, the sources say, including that it’s an ongoing, exhaustive course of and there are different candidates within the combine for that place and different prime roles. One supply conversant in the choice course of stated each Ridder and Cornale are amongst candidates being thought-about for senior employees. Different candidates for senior employees embody: Emma Brown who served as Sen. Mark Kelly’s marketing campaign supervisor final yr, Addisu Demissie who ran Sen. Cory Booker’s 2020 presidential marketing campaign, Quentin Fulks who was Sen. Raphael Warnock’s marketing campaign supervisor, and Julie Chavez Rodriguez, a White Home senior adviser who was deputy marketing campaign supervisor for Biden’s 2020 marketing campaign. The president’s group is hoping to get their senior positions crammed by April, once they’re anticipating to formally launch the marketing campaign.” • How about Michelle Obama?

* * *

“The President We Want for a Publish-Ukraine-Battle World” [David Frum, The Atlantic]. • “Chief.” A toad hops out of Frum’s mouth, and never for the primary time. Additionally, “chief” sounds higher within the authentic German.

* * *

2020 Publish Mortem

There’s the Evening of the Lengthy Knives, proper there:

This Pence profile quotes a “conservative strategist” saying, “Pence is ready just like Biden within the spring of 2019. Biden was not on the prime of the polls [but] he was a recognized entity”https://t.co/J1ssHXTMxP

Nope. Biden led in spring 2019 & a lot of the remainder of the best way pic.twitter.com/ynPu1AkCDN

— Invoice Scher (@billscher) March 19, 2023

And all of the Democrat Get together authoritarian followers fall in line behind the, er, Chief.

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, evidently individuals are really studying the back-dated put up! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are various updates. So I should try this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Get together (“the Democrat Get together is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated put up, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “dwell” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Get together is, in actual fact, a tough drawback. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Get together is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Get together didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working elements of the Get together reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between parts of the Get together (ka-ching, however not fully) these parts comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with belongings within the press and the intelligence group.

Word, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different courses; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

“‘The Democratic Get together in New York Is a Catastrophe’” [Ross Barkan, New York Times]. “As of late, New York is named the deep-blue state the place Democrats misplaced 4 seats on the best way to shedding the Home of Representatives and successfully halting President Biden’s home agenda for the subsequent two years…. These disappointments have forged into sharp reduction each the divisions throughout the social gathering and the peculiar void of the state’s Democratic group itself. Few New Yorkers cared, till late 2022, that the statewide Democratic equipment operated, for probably the most half, as a hollowed-out appendage of the governor, a second marketing campaign account that did little, if any, work by way of messaging and turnout. New Hampshire, a state with roughly half the inhabitants of Queens, has a Democratic Get together with 16 full-time paid employees members. New York’s has 4, in line with the state chairman, Jay Jacobs. One helps preserve social media accounts that replace solely sparingly. Most state committee members do not know the place the social gathering retains its headquarters, or if it even has one. (It does, at 50 Broadway in Manhattan.) Nationwide events operate as huge umbrella organizations, figuring out the presidential major calendar and the method for allocating delegates on the nationwide conventions. The drudgery of working elections is left to the native and state events, in addition to particular person campaigns and unbiased political motion committees…. Jacobs described the social gathering as a “housekeeping group” and a “coordinating entity” that works amongst labor unions, campaigns and different curiosity teams. He cited the upkeep of a voter file that campaigns use to focus on the voters as amongst its most necessary work, in addition to establishing marketing campaign workplaces at election time. Fund-raising, too, is an enormous a part of the work, and it’s there the place Jacobs has been particularly helpful.” • A number of fascinating nuts and bolts about social gathering construction.

For instance:

Gag me with a spoon.

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Revisiting America’s Battle of Alternative in Iraq” [Richard Haas, Project Syndicate]. Haass is President of the Council on Overseas Relations. “Nonetheless, widespread critiques of the conflict get it flawed once they conclude that the US authorities can not ever be trusted to inform the reality. Sure, the US authorities maintained that Iraq possessed WMDs, and my boss on the time, Secretary of State Colin Powell, made that case earlier than the United Nations. It turned out to not be true. However governments can and do get issues flawed with out mendacity.” • That might be true, nevertheless it’s not true on this case. My first summer time of running a blog — I maintain retelling this story, I apologize, however for many who got here in late — was dedicated to enjoying whack-a-mole because the Bush administration, aided by a complaisant press[1], emitted one WMD story after one other, solely to have them debunked, at the least within the then blogosphere, inside days, usually inside hours. The yellowcake uranium! The aluminum tubes! The cell weapons labs! And picture my shock when [genuflects] Colin Powell held up an already debunked vial of white powder on the UN as proof of WMDs, to justify the conflict [slaps forehead]. In fact, we later found that the explanation we felt we had been enjoying whack-a-mole is that we had been; the leaks and tales had been concocted by a factor known as the White Home Iraq Group, stuffed with luminaries like Condi Rice, (Over 50 such tales had been planted, in accordance a now-forgotten exposé of this operation, Fact from These Podia; PDF.) They had been all mendacity then, and Haas is mendacity now.

All of the pro-Iraq Battle liberal Democrats did very properly for themselves, through the conflict and after. Here’s a roll of dishonor:

For these too younger to have lived by means of what occurred twenty years in the past, a thread of self-styled left/liberal sorts endorsing the invasion of Iraq pic.twitter.com/GZIq6MpTQV

— Nicholas Guyatt (@NicholasGuyatt) March 20, 2023

The lone and degree sands stretch far-off.

Based mostly Trump:

Donald Trump says Nancy Pelosi ought to have impeached George W. Bush for mendacity about weapons of mass destruction and beginning the Iraq Battle.

“He lied,he bought us into the conflict with lies… Bush bought us into this horrible conflict by saying they’ve WMD’s” pic.twitter.com/VWSCdKck27

— Richard (@ricwe123) March 21, 2023

Trump is completely proper. Pelosi ought to have impeached Bush when the Democrats took again the Home in 2006. If she had, no Trump.

* * *

“The Actual-Life Penalties of Silicon Valley’s AI Obsession” [Bloomberg]. Extra cudde puddles?

In Silicon Valley, the overlap between rationalists, EAs, and AI security researchers types a deeply influential subculture. Whereas its borders are blurry, its lots of or 1000’s of members are united by a perception that they should work their butts off, or at the least make investments a number of cash, to cease AI from going Terminator on us. The motion’s leaders have obtained assist from among the richest and strongest individuals in tech, together with Elon Musk, Peter Thiel and Ethereum creator Vitalik Buterin. And its concepts have attracted the same old Valley mixture of true believers and brazen opportunists. Till lately, its most beneficiant supporter was Bankman-Fried, who invested near $600 million in associated causes earlier than dismissing efficient altruism as a dodge as soon as his enterprise fell aside.

Bankman-Fried’s collapse has forged a harsh gentle on the group’s flaws, however he’s removed from the one alleged unhealthy actor. The mix of insularity and shared function that makes the subculture so engaging to good outsiders additionally makes it a searching floor for con artists, sexual predators and megalomaniacs. Filtering the respectable want to make AI higher and safer by means of the acquainted lens of Valley messiah complexes dangers tainting the entire undertaking by affiliation.

The underlying ideology valorizes extremes: in search of rational fact above all else, donating probably the most cash and doing the utmost good for crucial cause. This mind-set can lend a sexy readability, however it might additionally present cowl for harmful or despicable habits. Eight ladies in these areas allege pervasive sexual misconduct, together with abuse and harassment, that they are saying has steadily been downplayed. Even amongst individuals with pure intentions, adherents say, EA and rationalist ideologies can amplify the struggling of individuals liable to doomsday considering—main, for a couple of, to psychotic breaks.

These fissures have international penalties. The group’s connections and assets give its members outsize affect on the event of AI, the No. 1 object of fascination for as we speak’s tech trade and an extremely highly effective software value untold billions. The believers try to make AI a power for good, however disillusioned members say their group of kindred spirits is being exploited and abused by individuals who don’t appear to know the best way to be humane.

“Insularity and shared function” means “bubble” however utilizing seventy five-cent phrases. So does “Valley messiah complexes.” So does “the No. 1 object of fascination.” Didn’t a bunch of those individuals simply foment a financial institution run?

#COVID19

“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge).

• Readers, thanks for the push. We at the moment are as much as 47/50 states (94%). I’ve helpfully added “______” to the states nonetheless lacking knowledge. We should always listing states that shouldn’t have Covid assets, or have stopped updating their websites, so others don’t look fruitlessly. Might these of you in states not listed assist out by both with dashboard/wastewater hyperlinks, or ruling your state out definitively? Thanks!

Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater studies); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (______); NE (______); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (______); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (1), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (6), JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, otisyves, Petal (5), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3). (Readers, for those who depart your hyperlink in feedback, I credit score you by your deal with. In case you ship it to me by way of e-mail, I exploit your initials (within the absence of a deal with. I’m not placing your deal with subsequent to your contribution as a result of I hope and anticipate the listing will likely be lengthy, and I need it to be straightforward for readers to scan.)

• Extra like this, please! Complete: 1 6 11 18 20 22 26 27 28 38 39 43 47/50 (94% of US states).

Search for the Helpers

Small victories are nonetheless victories. Extra like this, please:

Sharing a small victory. Essential recurring 2+ hr assembly now should be in particular person. I arrived in my match examined N95. Practically everybody was unmasked. CO2 went as excessive as 1800. Emailed organizers after the assembly to precise my issues in regards to the poor air flow. Properly acknowledged that 1/

— Noha Aboelata, MD (@NohaAboelataMD) March 21, 2023

* * *

“Introducing: The Covid Underground” [Covid Underground]. The deck: “Welcome to The Covid Underground, a publication for the Covid-free motion and all of those that proceed to keep away from an infection.” Extra: “True well being is the flexibility to alter. About 10-30% of the U.S. inhabitants has modified their lives within the gentle of the releasing revelations of 2020, and we maintain altering. We’re dynamically, creatively devoted to what was— briefly— plain to all: regular is a harmful phantasm.” • Value a learn.

“Covid Meetups” [COVID MEETUPS (JM)]. “A free service to seek out people, households and native companies/companies who take COVID precautions in your space.” • I performed round with it some. It appears to be Fb-driven, sadly, however you should utilize the Listing with out logging in. I get rational hits from the U.S., however not from London, UK, FWIW.

Discovering like-minded individuals on (sorry) Fb:

Thought I would add this right here in case anybody is . Locations to seek out individuals who “Nonetheless Covid” in your space & on-line: https://t.co/T4ND4XbrpF & https://t.co/sP5wq4fAw5 You too can search on FB “Nonetheless Coviding ____” & see if there is a particular group in your space.

— Adriel Rose (@adriel_rose) March 1, 2023

Covid Is Airborne

How the First World does it:

Nevertheless, in Tokyo final week, all taxis have CO2 screens and hepa filters put in. They perceive the significance of fresh air and public well being measures. pic.twitter.com/1ofNx24HMu

— Mark Morrissey (@MB_Morriss) March 19, 2023

Maskstravaganza

So long as masks seem like medical gadgets, they may by no means be a cultural norm:

Black with no emblem is the one acceptable masks for a lot of the general public, and but @3M, Drager, and so forth can’t get their shit collectively and simply make a 200ff masks that bypasses outdated trade habits. Day-after-day they don’t make a textless black masks, extra individuals are getting lengthy covid. https://t.co/TRig8PaczW

— Match Take a look at the Planet (@FitTestMyPlanet) January 6, 2023

One other Aura fan:

I exploit rub-on switch stickers to make the 3M aura cuter 💅 pic.twitter.com/RUXU9uoSR2

— ottolini (@ottolinid) March 21, 2023

Folks have the urge to embellish their Corsi-Rosenthal bins too. This tendency needs to be inspired.

Australian hospital reverses anti-mask directive inside hours. In fact, within the US, they’d have dug of their heels:

2/ Right now, 13.49 E-mail 2: “Shit, really, sorry there’s various COVID about. Masks keep ON for guests!” pic.twitter.com/o8N9KmiOIV

— Dr David Berger, aBsuRdiSTe cROnickLeR (@YouAreLobbyLud) March 21, 2023

This can be a miniature instance of what CDC is making an attempt to do — assuming good religion, tough to do at this level — with “Neighborhood Ranges.” They wish to flip the masks knob up when unfold is excessive, then flip it again down when its low. Leaving apart the difficulty of lags when a virus is in doubling habits mode, that is simply wildly inefficient and, worse, discredits the thought of public well being by making it too tough for individuals to stick to. Think about if we dealt with cigarettes or seatbelts this manner. Masks-wearing must turn into a social norm, as it’s, sensibly and to good impact, in Asia. As I say above, one step towards that aim is to reclassify masks as fashion-forward outwear, not as medical gadgets (not “regular” by definition).

Remedy

“A primary-in-human scientific research of an intranasal spray of a cocktail containing two synergetic antibodies neutralizes Omicron BA.4/5” [medRxiv]. Hamsters. ” Right here, we developed an intranasal spray containing two synergetic human NAbs that would broadly neutralize the rising Omicron variants in vitro. A singular synergetic neutralizing mechanism was recognized that the 2 NAbs sure to unique epitopes on the RBD and structurally compensate one another in blocking the Spike-ACE2 interplay. Importantly, when given at low dosages for 3 consecutive days by means of the intranasal mucosal route, this cocktail confirmed vital enchancment within the emergency preventive and therapeutic results in hamsters challenged with genuine Omicron BA.1.” • Appears to duplicate, and subsequently validate, the final strategy of Thailand’s nasal spray with human antibodies, CoviTRAPP, already available on the market, although not, naturally, in injection-centric First World international locations..

Coverage

“Public well being ethics: critiques of the ‘new regular” [Monash Bioethics Review]. “The moral justification of public well being intervention requires extra than simply the expectation that an intervention will produce a (internet) enchancment public well being (over and above the harms of the intervention). Along with well being, two different (units of) values are key to the justification of public well being coverage: equity, e.g., relating to the distribution of advantages and harms of an intervention in a inhabitants, and freedom, e.g., to maneuver and work together with others with out unjustified externally-imposed restrictions (Selgelid 2009).” • Sounds good, till you notice that “freedom” is how a libertarian says “[family blog] you.”

Elite Malfeasance

Evolution vs. man-made:

“Why ‘lab leak’ proponents are unconvinced by raccoon canine proof for coronavirus origins” [Yahoo News]. “For supporters of the market [as opposed to lab] origin principle, nevertheless, the analysis described within the Atlantic is probably the most persuasive to this point of a zoonotic, or animal, mannequin to explain how the coronavirus entered the human inhabitants. Practically 7 million individuals have died from COVID-19 since late 2019, when the primary circumstances had been reported. In accordance with the researchers, swabs taken on the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan—lengthy suspected because the pandemic’s epicenter— present proof of genetic materials from raccoon canines (animals that seem like raccoons however are literally genetically nearer to foxes) combined with markers of SARS-CoV-2, because the coronavirus was initially recognized. ‘Now we’ve particular proof that animals had been there that would carry coronaviruses on the time of the outbreak,’ stated Peter Daszak, president of EcoHealth Alliance, a New York-based nonprofit that supported controversial virus analysis in Wuhan earlier than the 2019 outbreak.” • Simply eesh. No one needs to be quoting Daszak, not due to his Wuhan Lab battle per se, however as a result of his EcoHealth NGO was an absolute cesspit dysfunction lengthy earlier than Wuhan. Additionally, “lab origin” vs. “market origin” is wretched framing; it’s not geography that’s at problem; the query is whether or not evolution, performing by means of pure choice, may have produced SARS-CoV-2 within the wild, or whether or not SARS-CoV-2’s aesthetic qualities (performance; magnificence) imply the virus may solely have been engineered by a human (the watchmaker speculation. Word that there’s additionally a[n], er, variant of evolutionary origin, particularly that “wild” SARS-CoV-2 someway bought unfastened out there — and nowhere else? — as a consequence of unhealthy dealing with within the lab). We additionally observe, because the article doesn’t and may, that the racoon canine “story” was launched to the Atlantic first, earlier than being revealed anyplace else, not at the same time as a preprint (which signifies that the scientists behind it, whether or not their science be sound or not, at the moment are behaving like a faction engaged in hand-to-hand fight with an enemy, a regression not unknown in academia typically).

“Lab Leak or Not? How Politics Formed the Battle Over Covid’s Origin” [New York Times]. “Some Republicans grew fixated on thought of a lab leak after former President Donald J. Trump raised it within the early months of the pandemic regardless of scant proof supporting it. That turned the idea poisonous for a lot of Democrats, who seen it as an effort by Mr. Trump to distract from his administration’s failings in containing the unfold of the virus. The extraordinary political debate, now in its fourth yr, has at instances turned scientists into lobbyists, competing for policymakers’ time and favor. Dr. Relman is only one of a number of researchers and like-minded thinkers who has efficiently labored the corridors of energy in Washington to power journalists, policymakers and skeptical Democrats to take the lab leak thought critically. However the political momentum has not all the time aligned with the proof. Whilst the thought of an unintentional lab leak has now gained standing in Washington, findings reported final week bolstered the market principle. Mining a trove of genetic knowledge taken from swabs on the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan in early 2020, virus consultants stated they discovered samples containing genetic materials from each the coronavirus and illegally traded raccoon canines. The discovering, whereas hardly conclusive, pointed to an contaminated animal. The brand new knowledge from the market means that China is holding onto clues that would reshape the controversy. However for now, at the least, the thought of a lab leak appears to have prevailed within the courtroom of public opinion: Two latest polls present that roughly two-thirds of Individuals imagine that Covid in all probability began in a lab.”

“Genetic proof of vulnerable wildlife in SARS-CoV-2 constructive samples on the Huanan Wholesale Seafood Market, Wuhan: Evaluation and interpretation of knowledge launched by the Chinese language Middle for Illness Management” [Zenodo]. FINALLY, right here is the paper. There’s a lengthy introduction, which is able to likely be controversial, about how they bought the info on which the paper is predicated. From the Summary: “Utilizing metagenomic sequencing knowledge publicly accessible on GISAID, we offer proof for the co-occurrence of SARS-CoV-2 and the genetic materials of vulnerable wildlife in environmental samples from the Huanan market through the begin of the COVID-19 pandemic. This discovering corroborates studies of putative intermediate animal hosts for SARS-CoV-2 being offered dwell out there in late 2019 and provides to the physique of proof figuring out the Huanan market because the spillover location of SARS-CoV-2 and the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic.” • I see how the report “provides to the physique of proof,” however I don’t see how one can “corroborate” something “putative.” Anyhow, value a learn to maintain abreast of the controversy.

Seems like “leveling off to a excessive plateau” throughout the board. (I nonetheless suppose “One thing Terrible” is coming, nevertheless. I imply, in addition to what we already learn about.) Keep secure on the market!

Case Information

BioBot wastewater knowledge from March 20:

Lambert: Word that if we take a look at “the realm beneath the curve,” extra individuals have died after Biden declared that “Covid is over” than earlier than.

For now, I’m going to make use of this nationwide wastewater knowledge as the most effective proxy for case knowledge (ignoring the scientific case knowledge portion of this chart, which for my part “goes unhealthy” after March 2022, for causes as but unexplained). Not less than we will spot developments, and evaluate present ranges to equal previous ranges.

Covid Emergency Room Visits

NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, from March 11:

NOTE “Charts and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous yr, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not your complete pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “similar to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is suitable for each_{MR SUBLIMINAL I hate these individuals a lot}. Anyhow, I added a gray “Fauci line” simply to point out that Covid wasn’t “over” once they began saying it was, and it’s not over now.

Positivity

From the Walgreen’s check positivity tracker, revealed March 21:

-1.9%. Nonetheless excessive, however finally a definite downturn.

Deaths

Demise price (Our World in Information):

Complete: 1,151,778 – 1,151,642 = 136 (136 * 365 = 49,640 deaths per yr, as we speak’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “dwelling with” Covid (fairly a bit increased than the minimizers would love, although they’ll discuss themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I could must resolve that is what the powers-that-be take into account “mission achieved” for this specific tranche of dying and illness).

Extra Deaths

NOT UPDATED (however updating). Extra deaths (The Economist), revealed March 7:

Lambert right here: Based mostly on a machine-learning mannequin. Once more, we see a excessive plateau. I”m unsure how usually this updates, and if it doesn’t, I’ll take away it. (The CDC has an extra estimate too, however because it ran eternally with an enormous typo within the Legend, I figured no one was actually taking a look at it, so I bought rid it.

Stats Watch

There are not any official statistics of curiosity as we speak.

Banks:

This account continues to be up. That makes me completely satisfied.

Mr. Market:

Right now’s Worry & Greed Index: 37 Worry (earlier shut: 29 Excessive Worry) [CNN]. One week in the past: 19 (Excessive Worry). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Mar 21 at 1:36 PM ET.

The Conservatory

“A24 Acquires Speaking Heads 1984 Live performance Movie ‘Cease Making Sense’, Will Restore In 4K For Theatrical Launch” [Deadline]. “Cease Making Sense stars core band members Byrne, Tina Weymouth, Chris Frantz and Jerry Harrison together with P-Funk Bernie Worrell, Alex Weir, Steve Scales, Lynn Mabry and Edna Holt. The dwell efficiency was shot over three nights at Hollywood’s Pantages Theatre in December 1983 and options such memorable Speaking Heads songs as ‘Burning Down the Home,’ ‘Life Throughout Wartime,’ ‘Take Me to the River,’ ‘Psycho Killer’ and ‘As soon as in a Lifetime.’ The band, whose fashion was a mix of art-punk-funk rock, was propelled by legendary producer Brian Eno.” • Nice band, nice live performance, nice film, and particularly nice on the massive display:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jShMQw2H2cM

Some good calls within the lyrics. “Anyone have any questions?”

Zeitgeist Watch

“…Burn Folks Tomorrow” [Mister Slang]. “This can be a (considerably broadbrush) taxonomy of slang’s main obsessions in line with my very own researches (the numbers point out related headwords, all counts steadily improve with further analysis): Crime and Criminals 5012; Drink, Drinks, Consuming and Drunks 4589; Medicine 3976; Cash 3342; Girls (nearly invariably thought-about negatively or at finest sexually) 2968; Fools and Silly 2403; Males (of varied descriptions, not invariably, however usually self-aggrandizing) 2183; Business Intercourse & Sellers 2007; Sexual Intercourse 1818; Phrases of Racial or Nationwide abuse (together with ‘white’): 1783; Homosexuals (female and male)/-ity 1700; Penis: 1441; Policeman / Policing 1246; Vagina 1180; Beat or Hit 1079; Forms of Vocalizing 958; Masturbate/-ion 945; Mad 926; Die, Demise, Useless 831; Anus or Buttocks 728; Defecate/-ion & Urinate/-ion 557; Kill or Homicide 521; Promiscuous / Promiscuity 448; Unattractive 392; Oral Intercourse 334; Fats 282; Anal Intercourse 267; STDs 255; Swearing and Oaths 253; Vomiting 227. As I’ve prompt on many events: humanity at its most human. The lexis of the unfettered id slightly than the self-restrained superego.” • I’m unsure this put up actually has a thesis, but when that is the useful resource you want, right here it’s.

“New Information Reveals FTC Obtained 2.8 Million Fraud Stories from Customers in 2021” [FTC (LawnDart)]. “Reported fraud losses improve greater than 70 % over 2020 to greater than $5.8 billion. The FTC obtained fraud studies from greater than 2.8 million customers final yr, with probably the most generally reported class as soon as once more being imposter scams, adopted by on-line procuring scams.” • Imposters! How Wodehousian (although, really, not). Little doubt the breakdown offers the rise within the variety of individuals defrauded, slightly than the entire greenback quantity, which I might assume is a greater indicator of a decline in social cohesion.

Class Warfare

“‘Essentially the most chilling metric of all’: Mike Rowe warns that 7 million American males are ‘achieved’ searching for work and have ‘punched out’ — why that’s a major problem” [MoneyWise]. “Whereas the U.S. labor market stays extremely tight — with the financial system including one other 517,000 jobs in December — round 7 million “prime age” males between the ages of 25 and 54 are reportedly sitting it out…. ‘They’re affirmatively not searching for work. They’ve punched out. They’re achieved,’ TV host Mike Rowe stated on The Brian Kilmeade Present, citing analysis from economist Nick Eberstadt… ‘The U.S. labor scarcity will in all probability must be solved by some mixture of immigration, automation and recession,’ writes Eberstadt in an op-ed for The Washington Publish, however provides that is ‘removed from more likely to scale back well-liked angst and discontent.’ ‘So what’s actually taking place within the nation now that scares me proper to my core essentially is that we’ve by no means had a lot unrealized alternative and so little enthusiasm for it.’” • What on earth does “unrealized alternative” imply? And is there such a factor as a “realized unopportunity”? That appears extra doubtless. Commentary:

Holy moley, take a look at the whiteboard:

Information of the Wired

“DPReview.com to shut” [DPPreview]. A remark: “Amazon will carry an enormous black mark for this so long as all of us dwell. DPReview is palms down crucial reference website for photographic product data on the planet and it’s onerous to think about how it may be changed by the efforts scattered throughout many different websites. Certainly it’s paying homage to what it could be prefer to lose Wikipedia. Insupportable company malfeasance. Data vandalism!” • It’s.

Contact data for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a verify in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photos of crops. Greens are tremendous! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you’d like your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it in the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From AM:

AM writes: “A wintry scene in Somesville, on Mount Desert Island, ME, with frosted white pines and spruce timber within the morning.”

That is Re Silc’s driveway:

Winter’s not over, people!

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Right here is the display that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

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