2:00PM Water Cooler 7/11/2022 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Affected person readers, ProtonMail broke down at a important level in my course of. Extra quickly! –lambert UPDATE All carried out!

Chicken Music of the Day

Rock Wren (Northern), Oaxaca, Mexico. Final week I obtained sidetracked into the Wren-Babblers. Here’s a Wren correct.

Politics

Lambert right here: One reader recommended altering these quotes; I don’t suppose it’s a nasty thought, however I would like to consider it. I don’t wish to be too doomy — we’re not in need of stock in that division — however I don’t wish to go all chipped and Pollyanna-esque, both.

“However what’s authorities itself, however the biggest of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51

“That they had realized nothing, and forgotten nothing.” –Charles Maurice de Talleyrand-Périgord

“When the going will get bizarre, the bizarre flip professional.” –Hunter Thompson

Capitol Seizure

“Understanding How The January 6 Riot Unfolded” [The Onion]. • Useful map.

Abortion

“POLITICO Playbook: White Home slams ‘out of step’ liberal activists” [Politico]. “Kate Bedingfield, the outgoing comms director, with an announcement making waves on-line: ‘Joe Biden’s objective in responding to Dobbs is to not fulfill some activists who’ve been constantly out of step with the mainstream of the Democratic Social gathering. It’s to ship assist to girls who’re at risk and assemble a broad-based coalition to defend a lady’s proper to decide on now, simply as he assembled such a coalition to win in the course of the 2020 marketing campaign.’” • Activists like who? Deliberate Parenthood? Bedingfield should be large mad, to hurl a grenade like that.

Biden Administration

“Biden’s pitch for Eric Schmidt-funded fellowship raised crimson flags” [Politico]. “This previous spring, Eric Schmidt, the previous CEO of Google, obtained the last word present: a straight-to-camera endorsement from the president of the US. Within the video, probably the most highly effective man on this planet touted Schmidt’s “Quad Fellowship”— a brand new scholarship for American, Indian, Japanese and Australian graduate college college students that’s operated and administered by Schmidt Futures, the charity arm that Schmidt makes use of for quite a lot of initiatives in science and know-how… Behind the scenes, nevertheless, there have been issues inside Biden’s administration in regards to the president endorsing an initiative of an outdoor entity based by Schmidt, one of many richest males on this planet, based on two individuals acquainted with the matter who had been granted anonymity as a result of they weren’t licensed to discuss the inner dynamics.” • That not “licensed to discuss the inner dynamics” is without doubt one of the greatest rationalizations for anonymity I’ve seen. I feel it’s new!

2022

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UPDATE OH “Democrat Tim Ryan chases after Fox Information viewers in Ohio Senate race” [NBC]. “Titled ‘Fox Information Pals,’ the 30-second spot is full of clips of Fox personalities heralding Ryan’s ‘reasonable concepts,’ together with throughout his transient run for president in 2020. Even Tucker Carlson — a commentator reviled on the left who has incessantly hosted Ryan’s Republican normal election rival, J.D. Vance — makes an look through a 2019 phase by which he inspired his viewers to pay attention to how Ryan positioned himself to the correct of different Democrats on border safety. Carlson’s on-screen headline: ‘Not Everybody within the Dem 2020 Area Is a Lunatic.’… ‘Even probably the most conservative voices on TV agree: Tim Ryan is a voice for commonsense insurance policies who stays targeted on the problems that matter most to Ohioans,’ Ryan spokesperson Izzi Levy mentioned in an announcement saying the business, which is a part of the marketing campaign’s ongoing, eight-figure promoting blitz.” • Possibly President Manchin is all used up, and we’d like President Ryan to interchange him because the revolving villain.

2024

UPDATE “Should you’re not a socialist earlier than you’re twenty-five, you haven’t any head; for those who aren’t a socialist after twenty-five, you haven’t any coronary heart”:

younger individuals do not wish to do away with biden as a result of he is previous, they wish to do away with him as a result of he is horrible at his job. https://t.co/hNG7IhWC1p

— Present Affairs (@curaffairs) July 11, 2022

Learn left to proper alongside the generations. Superb.

“64 % of Democrats need somebody apart from Biden to be 2024 nominee: ballot” [The Hill]. Similar ballot. “The New York Occasions/Siena School ballot discovered that 64 % of Democrats questioned mentioned they would like a distinct candidate. Twenty-six % of Democrats mentioned they’d nonetheless help Biden within the subsequent presidential election. When requested why they’d help a brand new candidate, 33 % of Democrats cited age as their foremost motive, 32 % mentioned job efficiency, 12 % mentioned they are going to favor somebody new and 10 % mentioned Biden is just not progressive sufficient. Forty-four % of all respondents mentioned they’d forged their vote for Biden if the 2024 presidential election had been held immediately, whereas 41 % of respondents mentioned they’d vote for former President Trump if he’s a 2024 presidential candidate.” • However on age vs. job efficiency, see the breakdown above. (And a three-percent distinction between Biden and Trump? Trump, as everyone knows, has overcome such obstacles earlier than.)

UPDATE “Eric Adams, the Mayor Who By no means Sleeps” [MoDo, New York Times]. Really a supportive piece, amazingly sufficient. Value a learn for those who can battle by way of the paywall. “He continued that when he’s in a room with billionaires and celebrities, he can see the ‘scared kids’ in them. ‘I look throughout the desk from you, I see precisely who you might be. You may have your individual insecurities, you will have your individual issues. ‘Does my spouse nonetheless love me?’ ‘Am I nonetheless interesting?’ I could also be mayor however I’m nonetheless this youngster that simply needs to do proper.’ So which animal within the jungle are you? He laughed. ‘Clearly, I’m a lion. I’m meant to rule the jungle.’ Beneath the swagger, past the swank events, the intense components of the job are by no means removed from his thoughts. ‘Pay attention, I obtained to stay as much as the job,’ he mentioned. ‘I obtained to show across the financial system. I’ve to make town protected. I’ve to coach kids and there’s no excuses. It shouldn’t be, ‘Oh, you’re a Black man. We’re going to provide you a cross.’ No, I don’t desire a cross. I’m chargeable for that girl being shot immediately. My job is to verify she may stroll down a block pushing a carriage with out being assassinated. I’m going to stay as much as my duty, however don’t stack the deck. Spotlight the place we’re profitable. We obtained some actual W’s.’ The press and critics, he complained, laughing, ‘solely discuss, ‘Hey, did you eat a bit of fish?’ ‘Did you?’ ‘Sure.’” • Actually. I missed the ethical panic in regards to the fish. My unhealthy.

Democrats en Déshabillé

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Social gathering (“the Democrat Social gathering is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated submit, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “stay” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Social gathering is, in truth, a tough drawback. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the way in which again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Social gathering is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Social gathering didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” in fact.) Second, all of the working components of the Social gathering reinforce one another. Go away apart characterizing the relationships between parts of the Social gathering (ka-ching, however not solely) these parts comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with belongings within the press and the intelligence neighborhood.

Notice, in fact, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is restricted by different courses; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

UPDATE “Sen. Joe Manchin Could Not Be Kingmaker In West Virginia For Lengthy” [The Intercept]. “[E]arlier this month, a grassroots slate of over 50 Democrats took management of the West Virginia Democratic Social gathering after successful a majority of seats on the chief committee and ousting celebration management, thus ending Manchin’s de facto management of the state celebration equipment. Now, after a six-year organizing push, each previous guard celebration apparatchik — save for the treasurer — is out of workplace, changed with activists from throughout the Democratic spectrum set on revitalizing the state and forcing renewed help from the nationwide celebration. The June 18 victories mark the start of the top for an period outlined by atrophy, nose-diving voter rolls, and only a single Democratic statewide consultant: Manchin.” • Possibly. Did the Outdated Guard steal the cash and provides it to the DNC, like Reid’s operatives did in Nevada?

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Neoliberal Order Breakdown Syndrome”:

New Yorker, NYRB & many magazines have been affected by “Neoliberal Order Breakdown Syndrome”

“The shortcoming on the a part of the liberal institution to just accept, clarify or reply to social change ” –
–@BungaCast on #NOBS https://t.co/wGgbz3iKG8 pic.twitter.com/fAFGhhB6rG

— Albert Pinto (@70sBachchan) July 26, 2021

NOBS as much as 11?

UPDATE Wait. Class isn’t a subjective feeling? You’ll be able to’t suppose and develop wealthy?

If somebody makes up an id grounded in nothing however subjective feeling and a state acknowledges it as constituting a protected class, subjective actuality turns into resistant to problem and the last word political contest turns into to regulate what emotions are acknowledged by the state

— Wesley Yang (@wesyang) July 9, 2022

Adolph Reed mentioned the identical factor utilizing greater phrases, way back.

#COVID19

“Whose breath are you respiration?” [RNZ]. A must-read. Testing the CO2 on a bus trip: “Though excessive ranges of carbon dioxide could be harmful, there was one thing I used to be extra nervous about. CO2 ranges can be utilized as an indicator of the chance of catching Covid-19; we breathe in air and launch CO2 after we exhale. Covid-19 is unfold through aerosol particles breathed, coughed or sneezed out by contaminated individuals. These can drift a number of metres and linger within the air for hours. The upper the CO2 readings, the extra virus particles are probably within the air…. . I texted a buddy: ‘OMG, the readings are so excessive I’ll as nicely let the opposite passengers lick my face!’… ‘You’ll be able to consider it as spit particles, tiny spit particles are what you might be inhaling,’ says College of Auckland aerosol chemist Dr Joel Rindelaub. ‘It’s breath backwash that will get individuals contaminated.’ He doesn’t endorse passenger face-licking, however when CO2 contained in the bus is 5737ppm he jokes, ‘it in all probability wouldn’t even damage, proper?’ The extent of CO2 outdoor is about 420ppm. Rindelaub says a great indoor studying can be something beneath 800ppm. That is additionally the extent recommended by the US Facilities for Illness Management for indoor areas as a benchmark for good air flow. When readings get above 1000ppm there might be a excessive danger of Covid-19 transmission if somebody within the area is contaminated. ‘Should you’re above 2000, then that’s an enormous crimson flag.’” • Now that’s a private danger evaluation. I actually suppose that if CO2 measurement had been happening on a mass foundation, we may get some leverage over airborne ailments like Covid. Maybe we may kind a political celebration: The Air Breathers’ Social gathering. As a result of as this text makes vividly clear, respiration is a social relation.

• A overview of the Aranet4:

Containing this good suggestion:

Ideally, CO2 screens ought to be a part of your cellphone or in your sensible watch (if possible by CO2 sensor). However goals apart, I wish to see one thing that’s a lot smaller, maybe bank card or keychain measurement.

This may enhance adoptability.

— Yaniv Erlich (@erlichya) July 6, 2022

OTOH, since China has not already carried out this, maybe it’s not really easy.

“BA.5, Chapter 2” [Eric Topol, Ground Truth]. A should learn: “That will get me to the lede within the Washington Submit’s BA.5 report immediately: “‘America has determined the pandemic is over. The coronavirus has different concepts.’ … There’s clearly extra room for the virus to evolve, get healthier, achieve benefits as an immune escape artist and extra effectively infect cells. But we’re watching its accelerated evolution akin to the conduct of a Components One race automobile lapping across the monitor with people within the stands. At greatest, there won’t be a BA-5 particular booster till November or December and that represents , understanding full nicely that BA.5 won’t be the dominant circulating virus in 5 to six months. We have to get forward of the virus, cease appearing as bystanders with ‘hope and prayers’ that it’s going to not worsen than what we’re coping with now. No, BA.5 has taught us as soon as once more, the virus doesn’t simply get milder and fade away. Whereas the virus revs up its mutations underneath choice strain, we’ve sarcastically turn into immutable, extra immune to taking an aggressive stance with second-generation and nasal vaccines which can be clearly in our attain.” • “America” may nicely have “determined” otherwise if elites hadn’t selected a Vax-only stance (plus remedy) after which run an enormous propadanda marketing campaign in favor of culling the herd, and denigrating non-pharmaceutical interventions at each flip. Maybe when the elites found they had been all infecting one another at their superspreading occasions they determined to alter course. Slightly late. Ah nicely, nonetheless.

• It’s basic math:

In the meantime, if they’ll handle to withstand our thirst to contaminate them, China may have a labor power — certainly, a complete inhabitants — more healthy, and extra mentally agile, than our personal. One thing to ponder, natsec goons.

• However not easy sufficient:

• Ah, recollections:

That is the South China Morning Submit story that tipped me off to aerosol transmissionl, however was subsequently disappeared.

Should you missed it, right here’s a submit on my queasiness with CDC numbers, particularly case depend, which I (nonetheless) take into account most vital, regardless of what Walensky’s psychos at CDC who invented “neighborhood ranges” suppose. However these are the numbers we’ve got.

• ”COVID Information Tracker” [CDC]. “Starting July 4, 2022, COVID Information Tracker will discontinue day by day information refreshes 7 days per week, and can as an alternative refresh information Monday by way of Friday.” • Psychos. Sure, I solely work Monday by way of Friday, however I’m not the world’s premier public well being company, both. To be honest, why on earth would anyone need present information when planning their weekend journey?

Case Depend

Case depend for the US:

Slight rise. There was a bizarre, plateau-like “fiddling and diddling” stage earlier than the Omicron explosion, too. This conjuncture feels the identical. Underneath the hood the BA.4/BA.5 are making up a higher and higher proportion of instances. Keep in mind that instances are undercounted, one supply saying by an element of six, Gottlieb pondering we solely decide up one in seven or eight.) Therefore, I take the case depend and multiply it by six to approximate the actual stage of instances, and draw the DNC-blue “Biden Line” at that time. The earlier depend was ~102,300. In the present day, it’s ~107,200, and 107,200 * 6 = a Biden line at 643,200 per day. That’s somewhat numerous instances per day, when you consider it. At the very least we’ve got affirmation that the extraordinary mass of case anecdotes had a foundation in actuality. (Keep in mind these information factors are weekly averages, so day by day fluctuations are smoothed out.) The black “Fauci Line” is a counter to triumphalism, because it compares present ranges to previous crises.

Regional case depend for 4 weeks:

The South:

Florida and Texas are simply trolling us. What’s with this buying and selling leads, factor?

Positivity

From the Walgreen’s take a look at positivity tracker:

7.1%. Hoo boy. Seems to be like lots of people got here again from the Fourth of July barbecue hacking and wheezing. The Covid prepare at all times leaves on time! (I additionally marvel if there’s a Keynesian Magnificence Contest impact, right here; that’s, if individuals encounter a sympotomatic particular person, whether or not of their social circle or in regular exercise, they’re extra prone to get a take a look at, as a result of they imagine (accurately) that it’s extra seemingly they are going to be contaminated. What we’re seeing right here is the steepest and largest acceleration of positivity on Walgreen’s chart.

Transmission

NOTE: I shall most definitely not be utilizing the CDC’s new “Community Level” metric. Because CDC has combined a leading indicator (cases) with a lagging one (hospitalization) their new metric is a poor warning sign of a surge, and a poor way to assess personal risk. In addition, Covid is a disease you don’t want to get. Even if you are not hospitalized, you can suffer from Long Covid, vascular issues, and neurological issues. For these reasons, case counts — known to be underestimated, due to home test kits — deserve to stand alone as a number to be tracked, no matter how much the political operatives in CDC leadership would like to obfuscate it. That the “green map” (which Topol calls a “capitulation” and a “deception”) is still up and being taken seriously verges on the criminal. Use the community transmission immediately below.

So, hospital an infection management — a division typically contaminated by droplet goons — ought to make use of neighborhood transmission (see beneath), and never you, when making your private danger evaluation? Actually?

Right here is CDC’s interactive map by county set to neighborhood transmission. That is the map CDC wants only hospitals to look at, not you. For June 30 – July 6:

Establishment, i.e. it’s a not-over pandemic.

Lambert right here: Because of alert reader CR, who discovered the place CDC had interred the “Group Profile Report.” NOTE: The file title is “Group Profile Report 20220707 (1).pdf.” That’s how a filename seems to be when it’s uploaded twice, the second time typically by chance, so it does certainly appear to be there was a kerfuffle of some form yesterday after I went to my regular CDC hyperlink and found an abomination. (I’m not taking again “sociopathic, democidal shitheads,” although. An excessive amount of else speaks in its favor.)

NOT UPDATED Fast Riser information, by county (CDC), July 7:

Good job. Because the report moved over to healthdata.gov, the whole lot has gone swimmingly. Simply get the effing experiences out on time. How arduous is that this?

NOT UPDATED Hospitalization information, by state (CDC), July 7:

Very risky.

Variants

Lambert right here: It’s past irritating how sluggish the variant information is. I appeared for extra charts: California doesn’t to a BA.4/BA.5 breakdown. New York does but it surely, too, is on a molasses-like two-week cycle. Does no one within the public well being institution get a promotion for monitoring variants? Are there no grants? Is there a single lab that does this work, and all people will get the outcomes from them? Further sources from readers welcome [grinds teeth, bangs head on desk].

NOT UPDATED Variant information, nationwide (Walgreens), June 18:

NOT UPDATED Variant information, nationwide (CDC), June 18:

CDC has restored the button that lets me flip their NowCast button off. Doubling conduct shifting alongside fairly briskly, however I might somewhat calculate slash intuit the rise myself, and examine that to Walgreens, than use CDC’s mannequin, which might be damaged anyhow.

• ”New coronavirus mutant raises issues in India and past” [Associated Press]. “Scientists say the variant – referred to as BA.2.75 – could possibly unfold quickly and get round immunity from vaccines and former an infection. It’s unclear whether or not it may trigger extra critical illness than different omicron variants, together with the globally distinguished BA.5. ‘It’s nonetheless actually early on for us to attract too many conclusions,’ mentioned Matthew Binnicker, director of medical virology on the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota. ‘Nevertheless it does appear to be, particularly in India, the charges of transmission are displaying sort of that exponential enhance.’ Whether or not it is going to outcompete BA.5, he mentioned, is but to be decided. Nonetheless, the truth that it has already been detected in lots of components of the world even with decrease ranges of viral surveillance ‘is an early indication it’s spreading,” mentioned Shishi Luo, head of infectious ailments for Helix, an organization that provides viral sequencing data to the U.S. Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention. The newest mutant has been noticed in a number of distant states in India, and seems to be spreading quicker than different variants there, mentioned Lipi Thukral, a scientist on the Council of Scientific and Industrial Analysis-Institute of Genomics and Integrative Biology in New Delhi. It’s additionally been detected in about 10 different nations, together with Australia, Germany, the UK and Canada. Two instances had been not too long ago recognized on the West Coast of the U.S., and Helix recognized a 3rd U.S. case final week.” • Good information. So do I’ve Helix accountable for the miserably sluggish variant reporting? Or CDC? Or each?

Wastewater

Wastewater information (CDC), Jun 19, 2022 – Jul 03, 2022:

A lot of orange, some crimson. Not good. This chart works a bit like fast riser counties: “This metric reveals whether or not SARS-CoV-2 ranges at a web site are presently increased or decrease than previous historic ranges on the similar web site. 0% means ranges are the bottom they’ve been on the web site; 100% means ranges are the very best they’ve been on the web site.” So, there’s a bunch of crimson dots on the West Coast. That’s 100%, so which means “ranges are the very best they’ve ever been.” Not damaged down by variant, CDC, good job.

Deaths

Demise price (Our World in Information):

Complete: 1,045,792 1,044,557. I’ve added an anti-triumphalist Fauci Line. It’s good that for deaths I’ve a pleasant, easy, day by day chart that simply retains chugging alongside, not like the whole lot else CDC and the White Home are screwing up or letting go darkish, good job.

Stats Watch

There are not any stats of curiosity immediately.

The Bezzle: “‘Uber Recordsdata’: Big leak of confidential paperwork blows open murky background of ride-hailing app” [Sky News]. “The report reveals the extraordinary lengths that the corporate undertook to determine itself in practically 30 nations, turning into one in every of Silicon Valley’s most acquainted exports. The corporate’s lobbyists – together with former aides to President Barack Obama – sought to steer authorities officers to drop their investigations into the corporate, rewrite labour and taxi legal guidelines and calm down background checks on drivers, the papers present. The investigation discovered that Uber used ‘stealth know-how’ to fend off authorities investigations. The corporate, for instance, used a “kill swap” that reduce entry to Uber servers and blocked authorities from grabbing proof throughout raids in no less than six nations. The Uber Recordsdata staff reported that in a police raid in Amsterdam former Uber CEO Travis Kalanick personally issued an order: ‘Please hit the kill swap ASAP … Entry should be shut down in AMS (Amsterdam).’” • Nicely, it’s not just like the executives weren’t prosecuted. Oh, wait….

In the present day’s Worry & Greed Index: 28 Worry (earlier shut: 29 Worry) [CNN]. One week in the past: 24 (Excessive Worry). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Jul 11 at 1:32 PM EDT.

Rapture Index: Closes down one on Wild Climate. “The dearth of exercise has downgraded this class” [Rapture Ready]. Report Excessive, October 10, 2016: 189. Present: 188. (Keep in mind that bringing on the Rapture is good.) I’ve been ready for the Rapture Index to hit the all time excessive once more. Now it has. UPDATE And now it retreats. Actually?!

Police State Watch

Clearly, we should always give cops more cash:

Learn up on “the March on Rome,” per John Ganz:

Poetry Nook

Ezra Pound appears to have gotten one of many insights of MMT proper:

He was nonetheless a fascist, although, regardless of his fantastic ear and enhancing abilities.

Zeitgeist Watch

“The Suburban Garden Will By no means Be the Similar” [Bloomberg]. “Householders from Las Vegas to Sydney are swapping actual grass for synthetic turf as local weather change ceaselessly alters what a traditional yard seems to be and smells like…. [Judy] Dunn opted to put in a man-made garden, a alternative being made by an increasing number of residents of Southern Nevada—one of many many locations that’s getting drier because the planet warms. For some, it’s the cash-for-grass rebates being supplied by native water businesses. For others, it’s the conclusion that the basic garden is more and more unsustainable in a time of megadrought. After which there are the residents coaxed into the shift by the water notices or fines…. The obvious environmental drawback with synthetic grass is it’s rooted within the greatest local weather nemesis of all: fossil gas. Artificial turf is made out of a stew of petroleum-based parts, making it practically unimaginable to recycle. On the finish of a man-made garden’s helpful life, which is about 15 years, it is going to seemingly go to a landfill or be incinerated.” • Heaven forfend there ought to be rebates for xeriscaping! Anyhow, since I’m lengthy silly, and synthetic turf is the stupidest attainable resolution for the suburban lawns, I’d go lengthy there, too. Little question Householders Associations are already enthusiastic about which shades of inexperienced are acceptable and which aren’t. Extra commentary:

Guillotine Watch

“First time on a yacht? Keep away from these 7 newbie errors” [CNBC]. “Whereas a lot of the journey business struggled to get again on its ft, the yachting business had a distinct drawback in the course of the pandemic: serving everybody desirous to constitution a ship…. ‘An enormous share of our enterprise is first-time charters,” mentioned [Crom Littlejohn, chief commercial officer of the yacht brokerage company Northrop & Johnson]. ‘They’ve had the ski holidays … they wish to attempt one thing completely different.’” That’s good; nouveaux riche from the pandemic. Extra: ‘Onboard Monaco’s de Kern suggested vacationers to greet the crew in the beginning of the journey. ‘Ask for his or her names, shake their arms and present some respect for the captain on board,’ she mentioned.” • I agree. Treating the servants nicely pays for itself.

Class Warfare

“Even at $25 an Hour, Key Tampon Manufacturing facility Can’t Maintain Sufficient Staff” [Bloomberg]. That’s a rattling disgrace. But when they’ll’t fill slots at $25 an hour in Maine, yikes. “What’s taking place at P&G’s tampon plant is emblematic of the broader squeeze felt by employers throughout the nation, from eating places to grease drillers. With practically two open jobs per each unemployed employee, the elevated competitors has pushed up wages and added to inflation pressures, prompting Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to not too long ago dub the labor market ‘unsustainably scorching.’ Labor power participation could by no means totally bounce again to its pre-pandemic energy, one thing that would make filling positions an ongoing problem within the years forward.” • I’m undecided we’ve got a concept of labor power participation price (which was sluggish to recuperate throughout Obama’s years-long “restoration” too). Opiods (an issue Maine has?) Lengthy Covid? Working circumstances within the plant (closed, crowded, shut contact)? Everyone realized to code? Everyone’s gone on OnlyFans? Everyone left the state for the brilliant lights of Beantown? I don’t have an terrible lot of sympathy for the Fed’s open lust to beat down employee bargaining energy, however I might additionally wish to know what’s taking place.

It might be worse:

Hmm. A proxy for silly cash?

Information of the Wired

“The Preposterous Logistics of the Loot Practice Battle (Sport of Thrones, S7E4)” [A Collection of Unmitigated Pedantry]. From 2019, nonetheless germane: “Jaime is shifting this meals in wagons, which is completely probably the most environment friendly floor transportation choice he has. Let’s assume every wagon holds round 1,400lbs of meals, pulled by two horses. We may make this extra environment friendly with completely different draft animals and greater wagons, however I’m making an attempt to maintain these figures pretty easy; furthermore if we had been doing that, we shouldn’t be assuming (as we’re) that the meals is all good, neat moveable and high-density grain, and we’d have to speak about loss and spoilage – let’s simply say that our pretty easy set of assumptions right here favors Jaime (as a result of they do). So Jaime wants to maneuver 9,400 tons of meals in two-horse, 1,400lbs wagons. Let’s begin performing some math. Assuming 1,400lbs per wagon, which means we’d like 13,500 wagons, with 13,500 wagon drivers and 27,000 horses. That’s…numerous wagons. Now the roads we see Jaime shifting down are limiting him to a single-file line of march together with his wagons. How a lot area does that take up? Nicely, a wagon of this measurement is normally round 10 ft lengthy, plus possibly one other 8 ft for the horse, and we should always assume whereas shifting just a few ft of clearance earlier than the subsequent wagon, so let’s say 25ft of road-space per wagon – word that we’ve got not but added the military to the street. That is simply the wagons filled with only one month’s meals for King’s Touchdown. Now, Jaime’s wagons transfer single-file (partly due to the unhealthy roads), however let’s make issues even simpler on him, and double them up, so we match two wagons in every 25ft area, that means the wagon prepare – once more, no military but – covers 168,750ft or 31 miles.” • I like this very a lot as a result of it’s much like the kind of evaluation that Andrei Martyanov does; he reminds us that there’s a scientific, or no less than an engineering, facet to warfare. We’re coping with materiality, with issues that may be counted, measured, timed.

Many, many questions, with solutions:

Generational evaluation among the many dinosaurs:

As reader know, I strongly deprecate treating (fuzzy-bounded, advertising and marketing pushed) generations as entities with political company. (The place is the Boomer foyer on Okay Road? Does it actually make sense to throw a stooped-over, white-haired Walmart greeter into the identical bucket as Warren Buffet? And so forth.) That mentioned, there are experiences that individuals of 1 age cohort (we’ll name it) have, that others don’t. For instance, an old-codger like me can not think about going to a faculty with steel detectors on the door, or energetic shooter drills. (Little question, if I went to Phillips-Exeter, I nonetheless wouldn’t.) Equally, I can’t think about my (male) gradeschool classmates being drugged for hyperactivity. And on and on and. Equally, I used to be capable of enter after which exit the world of manufacturing unit work; I don’t suppose issues are so versatile immediately. I used to be additionally capable of enter a posh technical area just by studying it. Readers?

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