2:00PM Water Cooler 7/12/2024 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Chook Track of the Day

Nice Horned Owl, Racine, Wisconsin, United States. “Half method by means of this recording, I used to be capable of find the GHOW roughly 20 m away, positioned ~ 7-9 m up in an ash tree the place the trunk cut up into two. Because it vocalized these atypical calls, it barely leaning ahead with tail barely raised with every phrase given (as a GHOW sometimes does when calling). Close to the top of this recording, it switched to its extra acquainted name/’tune’.”

Who? Who?

Politics

“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in reality a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Biden Administration

Good, respectable, and so forth., and so forth.:

Since Biden took workplace, the Pentagon funds has grown by $212 billion and the funds for social & financial applications has shrunk by $30 billion: pic.twitter.com/tQEfVVH6LQ

— Stephen Semler (@stephensemler) July 11, 2024

However not a problem, in fact.

2024

Lower than a half a 12 months to go!

Friday’s RCP Poll Averages: CTUTP

Second post-debate polling: No massive swing to Trump that I can see. It would be hilarious if the Biden Debate debacle had exactly the same effect as Trump’s 34 bazillion felony convictions, i.e., none, both parties are so dug in. Of course, the Biden “buzz” (yesterday) is bad, and may yet have an effect. And who, may I ask, is making the buzz? Swing States (more here) still Brownian-motioning around. Of course, it goes without saying that these are all state polls, therefore bad, and most of the results are within the margin of error.

* * *

“Behind the Curtain: Committee to Unelect the President” [CTUTP] [Axios]. Important. Note that Axios (like the TImes, as we saw two days agp) is a player, not a journalistic enterprise as we typically understand them (not that there’s anything wrong with that). They also have form: Their “scoop” of a “deluge” of post-presser defections turned out to be twelve, so you can discount to 25%. That said, it’s an interesting article about the Flexians* trying to take Biden down. I’m leaving out all the names to make the structures more salient. “President Biden beat back the initial public campaign by Democrats to oust him from the party’s presidential ticket, swiftly and decisively. But very-connected Democrats, mostly veterans of the Obama and Clinton administrations, are plotting hourly to get him to withdraw quickly…. This loose anti-Biden network is growing by the day — and is circulating polls showing Democrats would shoot from sure losers to big winners with a new ticket. Some donors are talking of a massive financial commitment to any non-Biden presidential ticket.” And the strategy: “These Democrats see the race in stark, black-and-white terms: Just three states matter — Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. That’s the Blue Wall, all of which Biden won in 2020. And they see an obvious solution: Forget the niceties of backing Biden or even Vice President Harris. Be ruthless about finding the two people most likely to win those three states.” Sounds like (spook-adjacent) Big Gretch for the Upper Midwest, to me; I think she’d do well in Pennsylvania, too. More: “No one is more than one person away from everyone else,” a central player told us. And almost all are one step away from former presidents Obama or Clinton.”** More: “No one’s sure the pressure campaign is working. It all depends on Biden, who controls the party’s delegates and cannot be defeated for the nomination if he stays in — no matter how bleak the outlook for November.” Emphasis in the original. And: “The committee includes… Former Obama aides, former Clinton advisers, elected Dems, swing-seat Dems (“This is the group that really matters”), the donor class, late-night liberals, N.Y. Times Opinion, Biden aides busily leaking. Axelrod concludes: “President Biden is a historic figure, and a lot of that is gonna be tainted if he persists and loses this race. The people around him have [a collective] hundreds of years of campaign experience. They know how to interpret data. They know how to read the moment. It’s just a question of whether their affection for him clouds that.” • As far as interpreting data, we can throw out all the Clintonites after 2016. And I don’t think the donor class, late-night liberals, or N.Y. Times Opinion know anything about data at all. Frankly, if these excresences were scraped from the Democrat Party, it and the country would be better off. Who exactly do these people represent but themselves?

NOTE * Janine R. Wedel, “Beyond Conflict of Interest: Shadow Elites and the Challenge to Democracy and the Free Market,” Polish Sociological Review. “Flexians exhibit the following four features: One, they personalize bureaucracy, working across government, business, think tanks, media, and national borders in pursuit of their own agendas…. Two, flexians privatize information, while branding conviction. Flexian’s cachet is in information: their access to and control of official (or should-be official) information… Three, flexians juggle roles and representations. These operators share the pattern of overlapping, mutually influencing, and not always fully disclosed, professional roles…. Four, flexians relax rules at the interstices of official and private power. They flout both democracy and the free market. In so doing, they change how business is done, either temporarily or more lastingly. The result, often, is the interdependence of official and private power—the disappearance of conflict of interest, because the players define the interest.” If you look at all of the “bold-faced names” in the Axios piece, Flexians they are.

NOTE ** A Flex-Net, a network of Flexians. “Members of a flex net achieve their shared goals in part by undermining the rules and standard sprocesses of the government they supposedly serve and supplanting them with their own.” For example, substituting a “mini-primary” for the real (however flawed) primary.

* * *

Let’s try to get our arms round the detail with some buckets:

The Calendar

Lambert here: The date for the mid-July virtual convention has not been set, indicating that the succession crisis within the Democrat Party has not been resolved. But–

“Is it too late for DNC delegates to abandon Biden? A look at the Democrats’ nomination process” [FOX]. “Though Biden has not indicated he plans to withdraw from the race, if he were to do so, his delegates would no longer be pledged to him. His withdrawal would lead to an open convention, resulting in Democrats being able to make suggestions for potential nominees and cast votes until one candidate receives a majority of delegate votes. ‘Biden has a hammerlock on those delegates and alternates. Only he can release them if he wants, and he’s not gonna release them,’ Craig Shirley, a presidential historian and biographer of former President Reagan, told Fox News Digital.” True, Democrats could “vote their conscience” to “reflect the sentiments of those who elected them,” but on current data (see charts below) that means Biden. More: “A potential [note “potential”] date for Biden’s nomination is July 21, the day the Democratic National Convention’s credentials committee meets virtually.” • That’s nine days away. The CTUTP had better get cracking!

“Democratic delegate rules, 2024: Pledged vs. automatic delegates” [BallotPedia]. “Pledged delegates are elected during primaries, caucuses, or party conventions, and must express either a presidential candidate preference or an uncommitted preference as a condition of their election. Rule 13(J) of the Democratic National Committee defines a pledged delegate’s responsibility: “Delegates elected to the national convention pledged to a presidential candidate shall in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them.” Automatic delegates are unpledged delegates to the Democratic National Convention. Automatic delegates, who are often called superdelegates, are not required to pledge their support to any presidential candidate. Automatic delegates include members of the Democratic National Committee, Democratic members of Congress, Democratic governors, or distinguished party leaders, including former presidents and vice presidents. They are free to support any presidential candidate of their choosing. Following the 2016 presidential election, the Unity Reform Commission was formed to revise the Democratic nominating process, including reducing the number and power of automatic delegates. At the conclusion of the party’s national convention on August 25, 2018, officials voted to adopt a measure banning automatic delegates from voting on the first ballot at a contested national convention.”

“Democratic delegate rules, 2024: Replacing a presumptive nominee before the national convention” [BallotPedia]. “The Democratic and Republican parties do not formally nominate candidates until delegates vote at the party’s national convention. The Democratic National Convention will take place from August 19-22, 2024, and the Republican National Convention will take place from July 15-18, 2024. A party’s presumptive nominee, meaning the candidate who receives an estimated majority of delegates after state nominating events, could be replaced at the convention. Delegates could elect a candidate who they were not initially bound to at the time of their state’s election. Both state law and party rules govern how a delegate must vote at the national convention, including whether a delegate remains bound to a withdrawn candidate and for how many rounds a delegate remains bound to a candidate.”

“Replacing a nominee between the national convention and the election” [BallotPedia]. Under Article 2 of The Bylaws of the Democratic Party, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) has the responsibility to fill vacancies in presidential and vice presidential nominations between national conventions. In the event of a vacancy on the national ticket, the chairperson would call a special meeting. Under Article 2 § 8(d), questions before the DNC, with some exceptions otherwise outlined in the charter and bylaws, are determined by a majority vote of the DNC members who are present and voting by proxy. The bylaws also state that voting to fill a vacancy on the national ticket must proceed in accordance with procedural rules adopted by the Rules and Bylaws Committee and approved by the DNC. It is important to note, however, that states require political parties to submit names of presidential and vice presidential nominees and presidential electors before election day in order to certify them for the general election ballot. Deadlines vary by state and depend on the election calendar, including early voting, voting by mail, and absentee voting considerations.”

Lambert here: Getting the Biden’s pledged delegates to “vote their conscience”, a floor fight, or “declaring a vacancy” will take take planning, time, and effort, across the entire party. Who’s doing that in the CTUTP?

* * *

Staff changes take time and cause friction:

Some of the reporting is cryptic, but one of the factors perhaps influencing everyone’s behavior is that Biden’s staff would presumably like to be “in charge” or heavily involved in a Harris campaign, whereas donors etc. might be inclined to totally clean house.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 11, 2024

The DNC

“DNC Chair Jaime Harrison: No Doubt In any respect That Biden Ought to Be Nominee, “Lock Your Knees”” [RealClearPolitics]. Harrison: “Hear, 14 million folks in 50 states, in our 5 territories, in DC, and our Democrats overseas went to the polls, did caucuses, and voted for Joe Biden to be our nominee. With none hesitation and equivocation, I’m saying Joe Biden, who had over 90% of the delegates to the DNC conference, is the nominee for our occasion. So of us, it’s time to observe the lead of the CBC. It’s time to observe the lead of the CHC and what we noticed with labor yesterday. It’s time to lock your knees, stiffen your spines, and get on board to help this president. If you happen to’re spending extra of your time on TV speaking about Joe Biden than speaking about Donald Trump and Venture 2025, of us, you bought to do a course correction.” • Harrison got here up by means of Clyburn’s operation. Extra from Harrison:

As soon as once more if you wish to gauge whether or not somebody can do the job… then dammit take a look at how they’ve been doing it for the previous 3.5 years!

Some of us all the time trying round for the latest factor when we have now had probably the most transformational president/vice chairman duo within the final 40… https://t.co/vcvfu5lhCe

— Jaime Harrison (@harrisonjaime) July 11, 2024

And:

We have to elect President @JoeBiden as a result of he’s a president who Will get. Stuff. Performed. pic.twitter.com/KbDjz3Bh56

— Jaime Harrison (@harrisonjaime) July 11, 2024

Exhausting to stroll again from.

From the hustings:

“As leaders of the Democratic Occasion representing New England, the Mid Atlantic states, Washington, DC and Puerto Rico, we strongly help Biden/ Harris.”

The DNC Japanese Area Caucus govt committee unanimously helps President Biden and VP Harris. pic.twitter.com/avebeycSZg

— Raymond Buckley 👨‍⚖️🫏🌊 (@ChairmanBuckley) July 11, 2024

I want to trace down different statements like this (if any).

“Former DNC chairperson shares help for Biden” [Associated Press]. “One other distinguished Black Democrat is making clear that she received’t leap ship on President Biden. Donna Brazile, the previous Democratic Nationwide Committee chairwoman who managed Al Gore’s presidential marketing campaign in 2000, mentioned in a short interview Friday that she is ‘ridin’ with Biden’ and that he stays capable of do the job and marketing campaign successfully to maintain it. ‘I don’t know once we all determined {that a} president must be excellent,’ she mentioned. ‘It’s not like he’s out on bail and carrying 34 felony convictions.’”

Electeds

“Obama, Pelosi privately expressed issues over Biden” [CNN]. “Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi have spoken privately about Joe Biden and the way forward for his 2024 marketing campaign. Each the previous president and ex-speaker expressed issues about how a lot tougher they assume it’s grow to be for the president to beat Donald Trump. Neither is sort of positive what to do. Democrats are determined for the dispiriting infighting to finish to allow them to get again to attempting to beat the previous president. And so they’re begging both Obama or Pelosi to assist them get there, conscious that Senate Majority Chief Chuck Schumer doesn’t have the belief of Biden and that Home Minority Chief Hakeem Jeffries doesn’t have the depth of relationship to ship the message. CNN spoke with greater than a dozen members of Congress, operatives and a number of folks in contact with each Obama and Pelosi, a lot of whom say that the top for Biden’s candidacy feels clear and at this level it’s only a matter of the way it performs out, even after Thursday evening’s information convention.” • For “a number of folks” see the dialogue of Flexians and Flexnets on the opening of this part.

“Superdelegates” [Steve Waldman, Interfluidity]. “The one particular person with any democratic mandate to decide on a successor to Joe Biden as Democratic Occasion nominee is Joe Biden himself, who received a Democratic Occasion main open to the general public at-large. Placing apart endlessly contestable arguments about legitimacy, the entire level of switching horses is threat administration. The one motive Joe Biden would and will step down is that if he’s positive his substitute would have a a lot stronger shot of profitable the overall election. Throwing the cube on an unpredictable disorganized contest, one that may grow to be bitterly divisive and even encourage rioting or violence at a Chicago Democratic Occasion conference, doesn’t meet that bar. By the point of the conference, the id of the Democratic nominee will likely be a fait accompli. Not-really-elected delegates is not going to determine, and mustn’t determine. There are two supedelegates. They’ll determine. The primary superdelegate, in fact, is Joe Biden himself. The second superdelegate is Kamala Harris. No change of ticket can happen with out Harris’ enthusiastic endorsement. One technique to win her endorsement is to place Harris on the head of the ticket. That is likely to be an inexpensive possibility! However observers underestimate Harris by presuming that she herself — me! me! me! — is the one various candidate that she would endorse. Harris ran in a Presidential main, and withdrew rapidly when she realized the electoral stars wouldn’t align for her. The Biden-Harris Administration will examine the politics of potential tickets as greatest it may possibly. There could also be a point of bias, some tendency to overestimate the strengths and underestimate the deficiencies of a Harris-led ticket. However a point of bias will likely be a restricted diploma of bias. If the Biden-Harris Administration comes internally to a conclusion {that a} completely different candidate would have a a lot stronger shot, Harris just isn’t such an egotist that she is going to threat throwing the nation to Donald Trump in alternate for a lottery ticket to grow to be President. In fact, Harris will negotiate a cupboard place for herself, or a quiet promise of favorable consideration ought to a emptiness come up on the Supreme Court docket. However she is not going to stand implacably in the way in which of whomever the administration determines to be the strongest contender. The most definitely consequence of all of that is simply what it was earlier than the depressing debate. Almost definitely, the overall election will likely be a contest between Donald Trump and Joe Biden.” • I really like the thought of shopping for off Kamala with a Supreme Court docket seat.

“Home Democratic Chief Hakeem Jeffries met privately with President Biden” [Associated Press]. “Jeffries of New York mentioned in a letter to colleagues Friday that he met with the president Thursday night and ‘instantly expressed the complete breadth of perception, heartfelt views and conclusions in regards to the path ahead that the Caucus has shared in our latest time collectively.’” • No matter “the trail ahead” is likely to be.

CBC, Black Girls

“Rep. Clyburn: Let Biden ‘make his personal determination about his future’” [WaPo]. “When requested whether or not the dialog inside the Democratic Occasion ought to proceed about Biden’s future, he replied, ‘No.’ ‘The dialog ought to deal with the document of this administration, on the choice to his election and let Joe Biden proceed to make his personal selections about his future,’ mentioned Clyburn, a staunch ally of the president. ‘He’s earned that proper, and I’m going to provide him that a lot respect.’ The feedback a day after Biden participated in a high-stakes information convention echo those who former Home speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) made this week when she didn’t instantly name for Biden to step apart however subtly reframed the dialogue. She indicated that, regardless of Biden’s insistence, the matter of his candidacy was not settled.” • And we nonetheless don’t know the way Pelosi will train the choice she created.

“Black Democrats are emblematic of a Home torn over Biden” [WaPo]. “The Congressional Black Caucus — roughly 60 Home Democrats who characterize Biden’s fiercest champions — earlier this week appeared to publicly embrace the president, even earlier than a digital name by which he promised to have their “backs” in the identical method Black Democrats have all the time had his. Personal conversations recommended an announcement of help from the essential bloc was imminent after a faltering debate efficiency two weeks induced panic that the president couldn’t beat Donald Trump in November. However that assertion by no means got here. Following their Wednesday luncheon, many Black Home Democrats began to voice non-public issues about Biden’s electability and the potential downstream results on susceptible lawmakers operating in swing districts, 4 folks acquainted with the discussions mentioned. And there was elevated finger-pointing on the White Home and people in Biden’s orbit who members consider aren’t correctly guiding the president by refusing to deal with points that may resonate of their districts and assist solidify help for Biden. Some are suggesting workers modifications must be made.” • Sounds just like the workers modifications are the important thing ask…

AKA is a robust Black sorority:

🧵🧵🧵I spent the day on the AKA conference in Dallas the place VP Harris spoke and I’m nonetheless laborious pressed to discover a Black voter who thinks it’s a good suggestion to push President Biden off the ticket even people who find themselves mega followers of Harris. I’m simply not listening to this from Black voters.

— Eva McKend (@evamckend) July 11, 2024

Donors

“Biden admin opens line with crypto business amid icy relations” [The Hill]. “The Biden administration opened a line with the cryptocurrency business Wednesday, because the White Home and Democrats discover themselves more and more at odds with highly effective gamers within the digital belongings house. Anita Dunn, a senior adviser to President Biden, met with dozens of crypto leaders in her private capability on Wednesday at a roundtable organized by crypto-friendly Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna (Calif.).” • Ka-ching! Take that, Hollywood!

The Spooks

No “deluge,” nonetheless:

Moments after Biden presser ends, the highest Democrat on Home Intelligence calls on Biden to step apart. https://t.co/sJdyumGroE

— Kaitlan Collins (@kaitlancollins) July 12, 2024

Mark Warner hasn’t come throughout my feed lately. Am I lacking one thing?

* * *

Trump (R): “Trump on Cruise Management Earlier than Conference” [The Bulwark]. “Rep. Mike Waltz, a Florida Republican who flew to the Doral rally with different members of the state delegation and frolicked with Trump, mentioned it was “outstanding” to see how calm the candidate is. Waltz co-chaired the Republican Nationwide Conference’s platform committee and mentioned Trump personally edited the platform doc twice and made positive it was written in a extra colloquial fashion (it seems like considered one of his speeches, the Washington Submit famous). This 12 months’s doc differs markedly from the earlier platform (which dates from 2016 as a result of the occasion determined to not undertake a platform in 2020). Its size was diminished from 66 pages to 16, and the prior platform’s opposition to homosexual marriage was eradicated. It additionally, as Joe Perticone notes in Press Go as we speak, deemphasizes abortion, a giant problem for Trump, who realizes it’s a general-election drag for Republicans. And it consists of his name for mass deportations of unlawful immigrants, a well-liked problem in keeping with polls, even with Hispanic voters. When Trump talked about the thought at his Tuesday rally, the closely Hispanic crowd applauded.”

* * *

Biden (D): “Biden Opens Two-Entrance Combat in Bid to Save 2024 Reelection Bid” [Bloomberg]. “On Friday, he’ll head to a marketing campaign occasion in Detroit, taking that effort to the essential swing-state of Michigan. Subsequent week, he’ll look to shore up his standing with key Democratic blocs with a cease Monday in Austin to mark the sixtieth anniversary of the Civil Rights Act — an try to additionally counterprogram the Republican Nationwide Conference which begins that day. That will likely be adopted by visits to the NAACP Nationwide Conference and a gathering of Latino activists.” • This jogs my memory of a passage from Parkinson’s Legislation, on engineering succession with no disaster:

The issue, it’s now clear, is to make X retire on the age of 60, whereas nonetheless capable of do the work higher than anybody else. The speedy change could also be for the more serious however the various is to don’t have any attainable successor at hand when X lastly goes. And the extra excellent X has proved to be, and the longer his interval of workplace, the extra hopeless is the duty of changing him. On this, as in so many different issues, trendy science just isn’t at a loss. The crude strategies of the previous have been outmoded. In days passed by it was regular, little doubt, for the opposite administrators to speak inaudibly at board conferences, one merely opening and shutting his mouth and one other nodding in obvious comprehension, thus convincing the chairman that he was really going deaf. However there’s a trendy method that’s far more practical and sure. The tactic relies upon basically on air journey and the filling in of types. Analysis has proven that full exhaustion in trendy life outcomes from a mixture of those two actions. The excessive official who’s given sufficient of every will very quickly start to speak of retirement. It was the customized in primitive African tribes to liquidate the king or chief at a sure level in his profession, both after a interval of years or in the meanwhile when his important powers appeared to have gone. These days the method is to put earlier than the nice man this system of a convention at Helsinki in June, a congress at Adelaide in July, and a conference at Ottawa in August, every lasting about three weeks.

We’ll see how Biden holds up on the path.

Biden (D): “Kalamazoo, Michigan Democratic Voters: ‘Relieved, He Ought to Keep In’” [RealClearPolitics]. “Biden voters at a Western Michigan senior heart supply principally constructive opinions on the president’s Thursday press convention with CNN’s Gary Tuchman. Two mentioned Biden did about in addition to they anticipated on Thursday, whereas 5 mentioned it was higher than they anticipated. One who favored Biden however was finally undecided mentioned she was ‘relieved’ and Biden ‘ought to keep in’ the race. A second beforehand undecided voter mentioned: ‘The identical, I believe he’s the logical alternative.’ One who mentioned Biden ought to ‘move the torch,’ mentioned: ‘I believe he conveyed extra defensiveness versus confidence, and I believe we’re actually craving to be assured in regards to the candidate.’ ‘I believe Joe Biden did a wonderful job,’ one other pro-Biden voter mentioned, ‘I’ve all the time been assured.’” • A tiny focus group of older white girls, but additionally an indicator that Biden has suffered no slippage in that demographic FWIW.

Biden (D): “Take a cognitive take a look at NOW, Joe: You owe it to the voters and America” [New York Post]. “President Biden ought to hear instantly to Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who mentioned Wednesday: “I don’t assume that it might harm” for the embattled prez to take a cognitive take a look at. That’s an early contender for understatement of the millennium. And Biden’s ongoing refusal to get examined — or no less than launch the outcomes of any secret ones he’s had — quantities to a direct and brazen deceive the voters he’s asking to belief him with 4 extra years in probably the most highly effective political workplace on the planet.” • Massive Gretch slips within the shiv. Factor is, these verbal slips aren’t in the identical class as cog slippage reminiscent of 51 million folks within the debate:

I am sufficiently old to do not forget that George W. Bush would puke up garbled nonsense each time he opened his mouth & the whole institution would rush to guarantee us that it was only a charming quirk & he was actually good & competent regardless of appearances.

— David Roberts (@drvolts) July 12, 2024

We Democrat bloggers did infinite dogpiling on Bushisms, plus armchair psychology, and it by no means amounted to a hill of beans. This side of the present dogpile — not all elements — jogs my memory of that.

Biden (D): “Biden Can’t Spin His Manner Out of This” [Peggy Noonan]. “I don’t agree with the narrative that what was revealed within the debate was a sudden and dramatic decline. What he has been exhibiting, for no less than two years, is a gentle and unstopping decline. In January 2022 we fearful right here in regards to the president’s propensity for ‘unfinished sentences, non sequiturs; typically his ideas appear to be bumper automobiles crashing and forcing one another off beam.’ In April 2022 we wrote of a ballot in New Hampshire that requested if Joe Biden was bodily and mentally as much as the job if there’s a disaster. Fifty-four p.c mentioned, ‘not very/in no way.’ In June 2022 we mentioned there’s a broad sense it’s not going to get higher: ‘He has poor judgment and he’s about to hit 80 and it’s not going to vary.’ Voters really feel ‘unease.’ In December 2022: Mr. Biden doesn’t assume he’s ‘slipping with age,’ however he’s flawed. ‘He’s exhibiting age and it’ll solely worsen, and he’ll grow to be extra ridiculous, when he’s deeper into his 80s.’ Trusted Biden intimates should inform him to get out of the race. ‘You removed Donald Trump. You bought us out of Afghanistan. You handed big FDR-level payments that reworked the social security internet. . . . You probably did your job in historical past. You fulfilled your position. And now you must exit an inspiration.’ In September 2023 Mr. Biden had been busted within the press for telling tall tales that didn’t take a look at. We famous that whereas repeated mendacity is ‘a characterological fault, not figuring out you’re mendacity would possibly recommend a neurological one.’ ‘The age drawback will solely worsen.’ ‘In insisting on operating he’s making a historic mistake. . . . He isn’t as much as it.’ What we noticed within the debate isn’t new. That’s why voters received’t settle for the concept that it was only a dangerous evening. They assume it’s been a foul and worsening two years.” • Commentary:

Many people who needed to look after folks in cognitive decline, noticed what was clearly happening with Joe Biden 4 years in the past. We noticed it then and we positively see it now. https://t.co/x1Btmo2ui1

— AshleyStevens (@The_Acumen) July 12, 2024

“After Biden’s debate efficiency, the presidential race is unchanged” [NPR]. “The race for the presidency stays statistically tied regardless of President Biden’s dismal debate efficiency two weeks in the past, a brand new nationwide NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist ballot finds. Biden really gained a degree since final month’s survey, which was taken earlier than the controversy. On this ballot, he leads Trump 50% to 48% in a head-to-head matchup. However Biden slips when third-party choices are launched, with Trump holding the slightest benefit with 43% to 42%. These numbers, although, don’t characterize statistically important variations, because the margin of error within the survey is +/- 3.1 share factors, which means outcomes might be 3 factors larger or decrease. The ballot additionally discovered that, at this level, no different mainstream Democrat who has been talked about as a substitute for the president on the ticket does higher than Biden.” • This text has a number of fascinating charts:

On potential replacements for Biden:

You possibly can argue that Biden will, because it had been, depreciate sooner than the opposite three. However how a lot earlier than November (until Jon Stewart panics the workers they usually flip the marketing campaign path right into a loss of life march).

On psychological health (helps Nooners):

On whether or not it’s higher for a President to be outdated, or to be a liar (goes unmentioned by Nooners):

On character typically:

Fascinating that with independents, character is just about a wash.

<— Our Famously Free Press

–>

Syndemics

“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Covid Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Normal Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the handle given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater stories); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep secure on the market!

Maskstravaganza

Masking ideas:

Earloop-wearing #YallMasking buddies, I need to share some ideas to enhance match & consolation of your respies. Pls be aware of gaps between your face & your respie nonetheless small (particularly within the nostril bridge space). If you happen to can, do a DIY match take a look at to verify for leaks. Keep secure! ✊😷💜 pic.twitter.com/diwTgLwCZk

— A. 🇵🇭🇪🇸🏳️‍🌈😷🍉💜 (@coffeeteanxiety) July 11, 2024

Censorship and Propaganda

Lambert right here: CDC claims (albeit with an exculpatory footnote) to replace its vaunted Nationwide Wastewater Surveillance System knowledge each Friday by 8pm. It has not up to date the info since June 24. If it’s not up to date by Monday, I can solely conclude that the info is de facto, actually ugly. Keep secure on the market!

TABLE 1: Every day Covid Charts

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new as we speak; all others aren’t up to date.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with scorching spots annotated. Worse than two weeks in the past. New York is a scorching once more, and Covid is spreading up the Maine Coast simply in time for the Fourth of July weekend, in one other triumph for Administration coverage.

[2] (CDC) Final week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) LB.1 developing on the surface.

[4] (ER) That is one of the best I can do for now. No less than knowledge for the whole pandemic is introduced.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Now acceleration, which is appropriate with a wastewater lower, however nonetheless not a very good feeling .(The NY city space has type; in 2020, as the house of two worldwide airports (JFK and EWR) it was an necessary entry level for the virus into the nation (and from thence up the Hudson River valley, because the wealthy sought to flee, after which across the nation by means of air journey.)

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). That is one of the best I can do for now. Be aware the idea that Covid is seasonal is constructed into the presentation, which in reality exhibits that Covid is not seasonal. No less than knowledge for the whole pandemic is introduced.

[7] (Walgreens) Nonetheless going up! (As a result of there’s knowledge in “present view” tab, I believe white states right here have skilled “no change,” versus don’t have any knowledge.)

[8] (Cleveland) Nonetheless going up!

[9] (Vacationers: Positivity) Up. These sh*theads at CDC have modified the chart in order that it doesn’t even run again to 1/21/23, because it used to, however now begins 1/1/24. There’s additionally no technique to regulate the time rasnge. CDC actually doesn’t need you to have the ability to take a historic view of the pandemic, or examine one surge to a different. In an any case, that’s why the form of the curve has modified.

[10] (Vacationers: Variants) Similar deal. These sh*theads.

[11] Deaths low, however positivity up.

[12] Deaths low, ED up.

Stats Watch

Inflation: “United States Producer Costs” [Trading Economics]. “Producer Prices in the United States increased to 144.40 points in June from 144.08 points in May of 2024. Producer Prices in the United States averaged 117.06 points from 2009 until 2024, reaching an all time high of 144.40 points in June of 2024 and a record low of 100.20 points in November of 2009.”