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By Lambert Strether of Corrente
Affected person readers, my liquid brunch gave me a case of the slows. Extra to return! –lambert
Chicken Tune of the Day
Frequent Nightingale, El Estrecho PNat–Punta Camorro, Cádiz, Andalucía, Spain.
In Case You Would possibly Miss…
(1) Crooks stays an enigma.
(2) Unelecting Biden: irresistable pressure, immovable object.
(3) Republican Nationwide Conference and J.D. Vance.
(4) Methods to sing.
Search for the Helpers
“After a Nationwide Anthem Flub, Singer Says She’s Going to Rehab” [New York Times]. • Here is a wonderful thread in response that does not mock the singer, but explains how to sing:
Most of where it all starts to go wrong is the posture. Like buildings or well written policy – if the supports aren’t stabilized, the whole thing just collapses on itself. She should stand with legs shoulder width apart, square her shoulders, and bring the mic up not head down/2
— Chalis Montgomery (@TheChalis) July 16, 2024
(The thread is gigantic, so click on by way of for a picture of the entire thread.) Do we have now readers who sing, who can remark?
My e mail tackle is down by the plant; please ship examples of there (“Helpers” within the topic line). In our more and more determined and fragile neoliberal society, on a regular basis regular incidents and tales of “the communism of on a regular basis life” are what I’m in search of (and never, say, the Purple Cross in Hawaii, and even the UNWRA in Gaza). –>
Politics
“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are actually a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
Trump Assassination Try
“Exclusive: Secret Service ramped up security after intel of Iran plot to assassinate Trump; no known connection to shooting” [CNN]. “‘Secret Service learned of the increased threat [from Iran] from this threat stream,’ the official told CNN. ‘NSC directly contacted USSS at a senior level to be absolutely sure they continued to track the latest reporting. USSS shared this information with the detail lead, and the Trump campaign was made aware of an evolving threat. In response to the increased threat, Secret Service surged resources and assets for the protection of former President Trump. All of this was in advance of Saturday.’” • So the operation at Butler was above baseline? Really?
2024
Less than four months to go!
Friday’s RCP Poll Averages: CTUTP
Second post-debate polling: No massive swing to Trump that I can see. It would be hilarious if the Biden Debate debacle had exactly the same effect as Trump’s 34 bazillion felony convictions, i.e., none, both parties are so dug in. Of course, the Biden “buzz” (yesterday) is bad, and may yet have an effect. And who, may I ask, is making the buzz? Swing States (more here) still Brownian-motioning around. Of course, it goes without saying that these are all state polls, therefore bad, and most of the results are within the margin of error.
* * * Unelecting Biden:
The Calendar
“DNC says no virtual voting to nominate Biden will begin before August” [The Hill]. “In a letter to members of the DNC Rules Committee, obtained by The Hill, co-chairs of the committee wrote, ‘we have confirmed with the Democratic National Committee and the Democratic National Convention that no virtual voting will begin before August 1.’” • Meanwhile, this is how DNC chair Jaime Harrison is spending his time:
Nate is correct. Jamie is lying. This is so weird. https://t.co/bNPXSLbOAU
— Ryan Grim (@ryangrim) July 17, 2024
“Scoop: How the DNC plans to expire the clock for Biden” [Axios]. “The DNC’s present plan is to coach state celebration chairs subsequent week on methods to conduct the digital voting in a safe approach. The window for voting is more likely to open on July 29 and conclude by Aug. 5, based on individuals acquainted with the matter. If the working plan for a ‘digital roll name’ holds, Biden simply has to outlast his celebration’s critics for about two extra weeks…. Some Biden advisers suppose Biden can run out the clock on the rebellion throughout the celebration, so long as he survives just some extra days. Media consideration already has shifted from Biden after the tried assassination of former President Donald Trump on Saturday. The choice of Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) as Trump’s operating mate will additional divert consideration from Biden. Congressional Democrats say their concern over Biden’s candidacy has taken a backseat since Trump was shot. Hours earlier than the taking pictures in Butler, Pa., Senate Majority Chief Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) paid a go to to Biden, however neither aspect gave a lot of a readout. Schumer referred to as it a ‘good assembly.’”
Electeds
Affected person readers: This whole part actually ought to enter a submit as a timeline; an excessively dynamic state of affairs advanced out from beneath me! Price a reader to see the gamers, and in addition to see the start, brief life, and loss of life of a sternly worded letter (and the calcuations that led to its early demise). These persons are as twisty as corkscrews!)
“Scoop: Biden revolt resurfaces on Capitol Hill” [Axios]. “A letter [more below] circulating amongst congressional Democrats argues that there’s “no authorized justification” for an early digital roll name after Ohio moved its submitting deadline previous the date of the Democratic conference. ‘We respectfully however emphatically request that you just cancel any plans for an accelerated ‘digital roll name’ and additional chorus from any extraordinary procedures that might be perceived as curbing official debate,’ it says…. Reps. Susan Wild (D-Pa.), Mike Quigley (D-Unwell) and Pat Ryan (D-N.Y.) instructed Axios they plan to signal onto the letter. Quigley and Ryan have each publicly referred to as on Biden to withdraw. Rep. Mike Levin (D-Calif.), who instructed Biden he ought to drop out throughout a name with Hispanic Caucus members on Friday, will signal the letter as properly, his spokesperson instructed Axios. One Home Democrat instructed Axios they’ve obtained the letter and are contemplating signing on, and a senior aide to a different Home Democrat mentioned their boss will signal on. Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) [more below], who instructed Biden on a Progressive Caucus name final Saturday that he worries the president is being shielded from dangerous information, has been circulating the letter to colleagues, based on one lawmaker.” • We’ll see what number of signal and the way quickly. Canine barking from their kennels are usually not very spectacular.
“Biden Group Remedy” [Puck]. Nicely price a learn. “Proper earlier than the Trump rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, a bunch of reasonable Hill Democrats held a ‘tense’ Zoom name with the White Home to precise their concern about Biden’s potential to win—and their potential to win, ought to he tank and take them down with him. ‘The decision was even worse than the talk,’ one of many individuals instructed me. ‘He was rambling; he’d begin a solution then lose his prepare of thought, then would simply say ‘no matter.’ He actually couldn’t full a solution. I misplaced a ton of respect for him.’ A second participant within the name confirmed this characterization…. The Biden marketing campaign pushed again strenuously on these members’ characterization of Biden as a rambling previous man, sending me a half-dozen tweets from different name individuals, together with Debbie Wasserman Schultz, a fierce Biden loyalist, who mentioned the president was ‘sharp, forceful.’” If I have been to flip by way of the “Reliable Sources” part of my Rolodex, no reasonable Hill Democrat can be in. However nor would Debbie Wasserman Schultz. So right here we’re! Extra: ” The Democrats are neither right here nor there, neither all in nor all out, neither absolutely supporting their nominee nor ditching him, a state of affairs completely summed up by a Russian expression: .” Certainly! However: “‘[T]he occasions [dear boy, events]’ in Pennsylvania on Saturday—as they’re recognized in Washington-speak—no less than briefly ended speak that Biden would possibly step apart. ‘The Biden alternative speak? That’s over,’ mentioned a supply near the administration. ‘I believe the assassination try took the strain off for a crucial 72 hours. Additionally, [or still can? See below] ,’ mentioned the supply near the administration…. So why didn’t they, I requested? ‘It’s onerous to see the best way time is ticking once you’re within the midst of it,’ the supply responded.” That’s foolish. Pelosi and Schumer clearly perceive the calendar, even the donors and the pundits don’t. The actual purpose: ‘I additionally suppose there’s nonetheless cheap uncertainty about whether or not Kamala Harris is a greater candidate.’ Stated the supply near Democratic management, ‘‘ However it’s not over but, and because the Hill supply recommended, the whispers haven’t stopped, even when Biden has made clear he’s going to white-knuckle this out. ‘He additionally mentioned he would drop if he noticed information saying he can’t win,’ mentioned the marketing campaign supply. ‘He’s about to see lots of it. The subsequent spherical of polls will in all probability be apocalyptic.’” • The polls will definitely be apocapyptic — if the pollsters are gamers just like the press. We will see! (Additionally, typically the “misplaced lots of respect” trope is just deployed the place no respect existed to start with.) However about that letter—
“Pelosi privately fields battleground Dem calls as she works to handle Biden disaster” [Politico]. “Privately,” “privately.” I see that phrase on a regular basis on this story… “One Home Democrat anxious about President Joe Biden’s impact on the 2024 marketing campaign not too long ago sought out steerage from a trusted celebration chief: Nancy Pelosi. This lawmaker, who represents a swing seat and was granted anonymity to explain non-public conversations, mentioned Pelosi requested detailed questions on congressional district-level polling and was ‘very receptive’ to issues that Biden couldn’t win in November. The member ended the cellphone name with the distinct impression that Pelosi believed Biden ought to exit the presidential race. This lawmaker mentioned the previous speaker supplied to speak to every other members of Congress who wished to achieve out to her with issues — although Pelosi cautioned that she wouldn’t be initiating these conversations herself….. throughout her reign atop the caucus, which included managing the 2 impeachments of Donald Trump and passing monumental, complicated payments just like the Inexpensive Care Act. It didn’t go unnoticed, as an example, that dozens of Democrats at the moment are clamoring to be a part of a letter to delay Biden’s nomination course of — led by Pelosi ally Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.), whose sprawling district is simply north of San Francisco.” • The Republican Nationwide Conference ends Thursday. It might be that actually dangerous polling might emerge Friday, and have been Huffman’s sternly worded letter to be made public Friday as properly, that might blow up in time for the Sunday speak exhibits. To be efficient, the letter would have to be signed, I assume by Pelosi and caucus chief Hakeem Jeffries on the high (and if the caucus chief wouldn’t signal, what good would the letter do?). Pelosi and Jeffries would signal provided that an considerable share of the remaining 113 – 2 = 111 Democrats had been dropped at signal (i.e., have been that determined). Contemplating solely amount, not high quality, what number of is “considerable”? 111 * 50% = 56. With that quantity, and the 2 signatures from management, I’d say Biden can be toast. How about 111 * 25% = 28, principally the place we at the moment are? I’d guess the management wouldn’t signal, the letter is a humid squib, and Biden lives to blurt one other day. The canine bark and the caravan strikes on.
UPDATE Aaugh! “Home Democrats scrap letter opposing early DNC vote” [Axios]. “The letter, which was set to be open for signatures till the top of the day on Wednesday, had “north of 30″ signatures as of Wednesday morning, based on a lawmaker acquainted with the matter.” • So I used to be proper on the mathematics, which I implore readers to consider I labored out earlier than I hit hte tab with this hyperlink in my browser.
“Distinguished Dem Schiff urges Biden to step apart as celebration goals to appoint president earlier than conference” [Associated Press]. “‘Whereas the selection to withdraw from the marketing campaign is President Biden’s alone, I consider it’s time for him to move the torch,’ Schiff, who’s operating for Senate this yr, mentioned in a press release. ‘And in doing so, safe his legacy of management by permitting us to defeat Donald Trump within the upcoming election.’… Schiff’s announcement comes after Senate Majority Chief Chuck Schumer and Home Democratic Chief Hakeem Jeffries inspired the Democratic Nationwide Conference to delay for every week plans to carry the digital vote to renominate Biden, which might have taken place as quickly as Sunday, based on two individuals acquainted with the state of affairs who spoke on the situation of anonymity to debate non-public conversations.”
Donors
“Megadonors Are Plotting to Change Biden’s Thoughts With Cash. Will It Work?” [New York Times]. “For ultrarich Democrats, that is the golden age of political scheming. The final three weeks since President Biden wilted through the first presidential debate have uncorked a nervous power that has stirred virtually each main Democratic donor and their advisers, turning billionaires ensconced on summer time holidays into artful political animals. They’re calling each main politician they know, encouraging them to name for Mr. Biden’s removing. They’re dangling cash to members of Congress who say the precise issues, and withholding cash from those that don’t. And even essentially the most reclusive donors are speaking to reporters, generally on the document, concerning the turmoil throughout the celebration institution.” However there’s a historical past right here: “[E}ver since Donald J. Trump ran for president in 2016, major business-friendly Republican donors have learned the limits of their powers — unable to dislodge him from the party’s nomination that year, nor able to do so eight years later. Now, Democratic megadonors are learning some of the same lessons, especially during a time when Mr. Biden has shown some ability to raise significant money from small-dollar givers. For all their riches and ambitions, many Democratic contributors and their big-money advisers have become resigned to the notion that their influence is fairly limited, and are trying not to be naïve. A sense of powerlessness pervades.” • That’s a damn shame. I hate to think of billionaires being powerless.
“Top Democratic strategist pushed reporters to consider ‘staged’ shooting” [Semafor]. “The dimensions of [LinkedIn founder Reid] Hoffman’s political donations isn’t public however [adviser Dmitri] Mehlhorn mentioned on a latest non-public convention name that ‘Reid and I’ve invested 9 figures of our personal cash to forestall Trump from getting again into workplace.’ (The cash seems to be largely Hoffman’s.)… In an e mail Saturday at 7:34 pm that seemed to be addressed to sympathetic journalists, and which was additionally despatched to Semafor, Mehlhorn wrote that one “chance — which feels horrific and alien and absurd in America, however is sort of widespread globally — is that this ‘taking pictures’ was inspired and possibly even staged so Trump might get the pictures and profit from the backlash. This can be a basic Russian tactic…. The opposite chance, Mehlhorn wrote, ‘is that some loopy anti-Trumper on this chaotic second determined to assassinate the previous President.’ Mehlhorn, who co-founded a fund referred to as ‘Investing in US’ with Hoffman, made clear his impulse was towards the false flag principle…. Hoffman and Mehlhorn emerged as central figures Democratic politics within the Trump period, directing uncounted tens of millions to each mainstream Democratic causes, like Joe Biden’s marketing campaign operations, and extra unique and controversial private-sector efforts, together with ersatz information websites. The origins of Hoffman’s and Mehlhorn’s fundamental group, Investing In Us, date to early 2017.” • I believe we should always give consideration to the concept that loads of billionaire donors, moreover being ignorant and incapable of due diligence — proof optimistic: they thought Biden was in fine condition — are nuttier than fruitcakes.
Pollsters
“Playbook: New polling bolsters ‘Dump Biden’ push” [Politico]. From BlueLabs Analytics (whoever they’re). “The strongest potential candidates are (in alphabetical order) Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly [who?], Maryland Gov. Wes Moore [who?], Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro [who?] and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer [“Big Gretch”]. All 4 outpaced Biden ‘by roughly 5 factors throughout battleground states. This information helps the views of strategists like James Carville and people arguing that blindly rallying round Harris can be as huge a mistake as blindly supporting Biden’s reelection was. ‘Practically twice as many citizens say delegates ought to nominate the very best candidate over choosing the following in line,’ the memo says. This faction of the #DumpBiden motion desires an open course of to interchange Biden — who, by the best way, nonetheless says he has no intention of stepping apart.” Who would say “choosing the following in line” (I imply, moreover a Democratic loyalist). Extra: “”The taking pictures clearly helped the technique of Biden’s staff to expire the clock,’ this Democratic lawmaker mentioned. ‘It additionally stopped what would have been plenty of members going public after the very unhelpful calls with members on Saturday [see above]. However it’s not over. Senior D leaders haven’t modified their minds that Biden must get out. .” • See feedback above above on Pelosi, and Huffman’s sternly worded letter — now defunct!
* * * Republican Nationwide Conference:
Opening Grindr on the RNC. pic.twitter.com/BhxoOai7GT https://t.co/mRI7dUUOwq
— primordial soup kitchen (@fernbirg) July 16, 2024
Yesterday, we did have a narrative about how glad all people on the Conference appeared to be…. Not that there’s something improper with that!
* * * Trump (R): “‘A Completely different Donald Trump’ Beams as Rivals Turn out to be ‘Converts’” [RealClearPolitics]. “[I]f there’s one factor Trump has notably not carried out this week, it’s gloat. He has mentioned comparatively little for the reason that try on his life Saturday, exuding a gracious silence – maybe even a magnanimous stoicism. A supply who spoke with the previous president at size the day after he dodged an murderer’s bullet reported speaking to ‘a unique Donald Trump, however in the easiest way potential.’ Granted anonymity to talk freely, this particular person, who has labored intently with Trump for almost a decade, described a ‘weirdly counterintuitive’ phenomenon whereby ‘he virtually dies, he miraculously survives, and it turns into even much less about him.’ Maybe that explains the last-minute invitation to Nikki Haley. She was not initially slated to talk on the RNC, however after the assassination try, the Trump marketing campaign requested her to return converse. It was concurrently an try at celebration and nationwide unity, an overture made extra exceptional contemplating the sheer bitterness of their rivalry…. However all now appears forgiven, or no less than forgotten. At this conference, issues simply really feel altered, mentioned Republican pollster Frank Luntz. ‘And it feels totally different, which implies persons are listening to one thing totally different,’ he instructed RCP. ‘That hasn’t occurred for years.’ What modified among the many Republican devoted? ‘Their hero was virtually taken away from them,’ he replied, an incidence that ‘humanized Trump and humbled his supporters.’ The prize for good conduct might very properly be a landslide, the well-known pollster continued. ‘If Trump can get by way of a day with out attacking her, that’s the key ingredient for the remainder of this marketing campaign,’ he mentioned. ‘Add Haley voters to Trump’s complete, and he’s unbeatable.’” • If Trump manages to morph from a Heel to a Face, that might be exceptional. Even when that is solely the celebration line, it’s nonetheless exceptional!
* * * “US Vice President Harris, Vance speak as debate date in question” [Reuters]. “U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris has asked former President Donald Trump’s running mate, J.D. Vance, to join an Aug. 13 debate hosted by CBS, a Biden-Harris campaign official said on Tuesday…. The Trump campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment and the Biden campaign did not comment. The Democratic vice president had previously accepted terms for a CBS (PARA.O), opens new tab debate on either July 23 or Aug. 13, while Trump’s campaign had sought a debate on Fox News that President Joe Biden’s camp had said they would not accept. The July date for a CBS debate is now off the table, according to a person familiar with the matter.” • The August 13 date is before the Democrat National Convention starting August 19, presenting the faint possibility that a “Harris for President” balloon could be inflated if she does very well against Vance. She was a terrible campaigner in the 2020 election, but a good debater (“‘That little girl was me’: Kamala Harris, Joe Biden spar over desegregation at Democratic debate“; “Kamala Harris’ 2020 campaign now selling ‘That Little Girl Was Me’ T-shirts following viral exchange with Joe Biden“). Or her staff prepared her well, not necessarily a given.
* * * “Early voting dates, 2024” [BallotPedia]. For reference, let me print this again, revised for the current list of swing states:
Given that one wishes to influence early voting in Virginia, an “October Surprise” should happen in early September. Arizona and Georgia, late September. (Of course, early voters being more like to be committed partisans — “I’ve seen enough!” — a “surprise” might not influence them at all. Presumably all this is being gamed out in some back room.)
* * * “Billionaires Take Sides as Turbulent Presidential Race Heats Up” [Bloomberg]. “The big fundraising arms of the campaigns and parties plus some key super PACs filed their quarterly reports to the Federal Election Commission on Monday. Here’s how they stack up: Biden and the Democratic Party raised $263 million in the second quarter and had $240 million cash on hand.Future Forward PAC, his allied super PAC, next reports on Saturday.
Though out-raised in the quarter, Biden seemed to be stemming the tide in June, when he raised $127 million to Trump’s $112 million. He held a glitzy fundraiser in Los Angeles with former President Barack Obama that month, and raked in big donations from filmmaker JJ Abrams and actress Julia Roberts. Real estate investor Wayne Jordan, philanthropist Quinn Delaney and Philip Munger, the son of Warren Buffett’s longtime business partner, the late Charles Munger, also gave in June. The big Democratic super PACs that back Biden, including Future Forward PAC and American Bridge, won’t report until Saturday…. Trump and the RNC raised $331 million in May, but did not disclose total cash on hand.Make America Great Again Inc. super PAC next reports on Saturday. Following his guilty verdict on charges of falsifying business records to conceal hush-money payments to an adult film star, Trump enjoyed a fundraising boom. In addition to the millions raised online, Blackstone Group CEO Stephen Schwarzman, private equity veteran John Childs and Chamath Palihapitiya of Social+Capital Partnership LLC were among the financial industry figures who wrote six-figure checks for Trump’s campaign and the GOP the day after the verdict.” • Of course, this doesn’t take into account the efforts of the Committee to Unelect President Biden….
* * * “Exclusive-Four in five Americans fear country is sliding into chaos, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds” [Reuters]. Post-assasination: “80% of voters – including similar shares of Democrats and Republicans – said they agreed with a statement that ‘the country is spiraling out of the control.’ The poll, which was conducted online, surveyed 1,202 U.S. adults nationwide, including 992 registered voters.”
Our Famously Free Press
“Editor at ‘major news outlet’ tells media to bury iconic photo of Trump after assassination attempt: report” [FOX]. “An unnamed photo editor at a major news outlet believes it is ‘dangerous’ for the media to highlight the historic photo of former President Trump standing tall after the assassination attempt Saturday, calling it ‘free PR’ for the Trump campaign, according to a report…. The former president is seen raising a fist to the crowd of supporters as he was rushed off the stage with blood smeared across his face, Secret Service flanking him, an American flag flying above his head. Associated Press photographer Evan Vucci captured the image that immediately went viral and landed on newspaper front pages while dominating digital news sites and social media platforms across the world.” See discussion of Vucci’s photo at NC here. (Axios has a good discussion of the other two of the top three photos from the event here, from the photographers’ standpoint). More: “Trump himself addressed the now world-famous photo during an interview with the New York Post on Monday, quipping ‘A lot of people say it’s the most iconic photo they’ve ever seen. They’re right and I didn’t die. Usually you have to die to have an iconic picture.’”
Syndemics
“I am in earnest — I will not equivocate — I will not excuse — I will not retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Resources, United States (National): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; includes many counties; Wastewater Scan, includes drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, but national data). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (especially on hospitalization by city).
Lambert here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To update any entry, do feel free to contact me at the address given with the plants. Please put “COVID” in the subject line. Thank you!
Resources, United States (Local): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Resources, Canada (National): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Resources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tips to helpful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, square coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Stay safe out there!
Airborne Transmission: Covid
Outdoor air is safer. But not completely!
If you are packed tightly into a peloton, you are at risk of bioaerosol inhalation. High-intensity exercise exponentially increases aerosol emissions. https://t.co/L6LjtznS5u https://t.co/pWnZPOBZJW pic.twitter.com/h0OQDVWovd
— Dr Satoshi Akima FRACP 『秋間聰』 (@ToshiAkima) July 17, 2024
Transmission: H5N1
Hat tip, Massive Ag:
There appears to have been little progress in getting cattle farmers to see #H5N1 #birdflu as a human well being menace. Marvel if recognition of the continuing & huge menace to poultry farming might change the calculus? https://t.co/3oPqxJbfEW
— Helen Branswell 🇨🇦 (@HelenBranswell) July 17, 2024
TABLE 1: Each day Covid Charts
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new at this time; all others are usually not up to date.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with sizzling spots annotated. Worse than two weeks in the past.
[2] (CDC) Final week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) LB.1 developing on the surface.
[4] (ER) That is the very best I can do for now. No less than information for your entire pandemic is introduced.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Now acceleration, which is suitable with a wastewater lower, however nonetheless not a very good feeling .(The NY city space has type; in 2020, as the house of two worldwide airports (JFK and EWR) it was an essential entry level for the virus into the nation (and from thence up the Hudson River valley, because the wealthy sought to flee, after which across the nation by way of air journey.)
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). That is the very best I can do for now. Be aware the belief that Covid is seasonal is constructed into the presentation, which actually exhibits that Covid is not seasonal. No less than information for your entire pandemic is introduced.
[7] (Walgreens) Nonetheless going up! (As a result of there’s information in “present view” tab, I believe white states right here have skilled “no change,” versus don’t have any information.)
[8] (Cleveland) Nonetheless going up!
[9] (Vacationers: Positivity) Up. These sh*theads at CDC have modified the chart in order that it doesn’t even run again to 1/21/23, because it used to, however now begins 1/1/24. There’s additionally no solution to alter the time rasnge. CDC actually doesn’t need you to have the ability to take a historic view of the pandemic, or evaluate one surge to a different. In an any case, that’s why the form of the curve has modified.
[10] (Vacationers: Variants) Similar deal. These sh*theads.
[11] Deaths low, however positivity up.
[12] Deaths low, ED up.
Stats Watch
Manufacturing: “United States Industrial Manufacturing MoM” [Trading Economics]. “Industrial manufacturing within the US rose 0.6 p.c from a month earlier in June 2024, greater than market expectations of a 0.3 p.c improve. Manufacturing output, which makes up 78% of complete manufacturing, superior 0.4 p.c, in contrast with market forecast of a 0.2 p.c improve. Additionally, mining output went up 0.3 p.c and the output of utilities elevated 2.8 p.c. Capability utilization moved as much as 78.8 p.c in June, a charge that’s 0.9 share level under its long-run (1972–2023) common.”
Housing: “United States Housing Begins” [Trading Economics]. “Housing begins within the US rose by 3% from the earlier month to an annualized charge of 1,314,000 in June of 2024, rebounding from the revised 4.6% decline within the earlier month and firmly above market expectations of 1,300,000 begins. The expansion was carried by a 22% surge in begins of buildings with 5 models or extra, totaling an annual charge of 360,000. This offset a 2.2% drop in single-unit begins, totaling a charge of 980,000. Amongst totally different elements of the nation, begins soared within the Northeast (34.4% to 121,000) and the Midwest (26.8% to 194,000), whereas dropping within the West (-6.1% to 306,000) and the South (-1.7% to 732,000).”
Tech: “Does Generative AI Facilitate Investor Buying and selling? Proof from ChatGPT Outages” (PDF) [SSRN]. “On this paper, we use ChatGPT outages to research whether or not buyers depend on generative synthetic intelligence (GAI) to carry out trading-related duties and the related impression on inventory worth informativeness. We first doc a major decline in inventory buying and selling quantity throughout ChatGPT outages and discover that the impact is stronger for corporations with company information launched instantly earlier than or through the outages. We additional doc comparable declines within the shortrun worth impression, return variance, and bid-ask spreads, in step with a discount in knowledgeable buying and selling through the outage intervals. Lastly, we use buying and selling quantity modifications throughout outages to assemble a firm-level measure of the depth of GAI-assisted buying and selling and supply early proof of a optimistic impact of GAI-assisted buying and selling on long-run inventory worth informativeness. General, our findings contribute to the talk on the potential results of AI buying and selling fashions on monetary market stability.” • Hmm. I don’t play the ponies, however those that do might discover this attention-grabbing. Readers?
Right this moment’s Concern & Greed Index: 54 Impartial (earlier shut: 63 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 54 (Impartial). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Jul 17 at 1:47:37 PM ET.
Information of the Wired
“The Final Avant-Garde” [Los Angeles Review of Books]. “[Dominique Routhier’s] With and Towards is a part of a latest flurry of books urging a reassessment of the would-be revolutionary motion generally known as the Situationist Worldwide (SI)…. Any legitimate tackle the SI has to view them as a logical subsequent step in a lineage that reaches again no less than to the Dada motion and advanced by way of Surrealism, Russian Futurism and Constructivism, Bauhaus, and the Lettrism motion, from which lots of SI’s main members emerged. All, in their very own approach, explicitly outlined revolution as a breakdown within the limitations between life and work on one hand and absolutely liberated human creativity on the opposite…. If the spectacle has wormed its approach into our lives and consciousness greater than the situationists ever might have anticipated, although, then it will require way more onerous considering and sweat to maintain operating. The recuperation and atrophy of modes and areas that might enable individuals to push again is actual, however the potential to refuse stays. …. Lots already know that know-how received’t save us. The query of what’s going to stays.” • See particularly Man Debord’s 1967 enjoyable and straightforward Society of the Spectacle.
Contact data for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a examine if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me pictures of crops. Greens are effective! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you need your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it in the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From Desert Canine:
Desert Canine writes: “Ready for a puff of wind.” As are all of us!
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Right here is the display that may seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:
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