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By Lambert Strether of Corrente
Readers, I apologize as soon as extra for the thinness of the Covid protection, however there’s been a lot occurring in electoral politics I assumed I ought to clear my backlog there. Life’s wealthy pageant! –lambert
Hen Track of the Day
Horned Lark, California, United States.
Politics
“However what’s authorities itself, however the biggest of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51
“That they had discovered nothing, and forgotten nothing.” –Charles Maurice de Talleyrand-Périgord
“When the going will get bizarre, the bizarre flip professional.” –Hunter Thompson
Capitol Seizure
“Jan. 6 committee divided on Dem meddling in GOP primaries” [Axios]. “Members of the Home Jan. 6 committee are divided on whether or not to sentence the rising pattern of Democrats meddling in GOP primaries to spice up pro-Trump election deniers — a tactic designed to safe extra favorable matchups within the normal election. The committee has spent the final yr warning that former President Trump and his allies — together with candidates operating on this yr’s midterms — are endangering American democracy by casting doubt on the legitimacy of the 2020 election…. Public backlash intensified yesterday when it emerged that the Democratic Congressional Marketing campaign Committee is boosting an election denier in his major towards Rep. Peter Meijer (R-Mich.) — certainly one of 10 Home Republicans who voted to question Trump for his function within the Jan. 6 Capitol riot…. ‘The DCCC is taking part in with fireplace. It undercuts the nice work of the Jan. 6 committee and makes us appear like hypocrites,’ one Democratic member of Congress instructed Axios.” • The DCCC? Absolutely not.
“‘Type of Wild/Inventive’: Emails Shed Gentle on Trump Pretend Electors Plan” [New York Times]. “Beforehand undisclosed emails present an inside take a look at the more and more determined and infrequently slapdash efforts by advisers to President Donald J. Trump to reverse his election defeat within the weeks earlier than the Jan. 6 assault, together with acknowledgments {that a} key ingredient of their plan was of doubtful legality and lived as much as its billing as ‘faux.’ The handfuls of emails amongst folks linked to the Trump marketing campaign, exterior advisers and shut associates of Mr. Trump present a selected deal with assembling lists of people that would declare — with no foundation — to be Electoral Faculty electors on his behalf in battleground states that he had misplaced. In emails reviewed by The New York Instances and authenticated by individuals who had labored with the Trump marketing campaign on the time, one lawyer concerned within the detailed discussions repeatedly used the phrase ‘faux’ to seek advice from the so-called electors, who have been supposed to offer Vice President Mike Pence and Mr. Trump’s allies in Congress a rationale for derailing the congressional technique of certifying the result. And attorneys engaged on the proposal made clear they knew that the pro-Trump electors they have been placing ahead won’t maintain as much as authorized scrutiny. ‘We’d simply be sending in ‘faux’ electoral votes to Pence in order that ‘somebody’ in Congress could make an objection once they begin counting votes, and begin arguing that the ‘faux’ votes must be counted,” Jack Wilenchik, a Phoenix-based lawyer who helped arrange the pro-Trump electors in Arizona, wrote in a Dec. 8, 2020, electronic mail to Boris Epshteyn, a strategic adviser for the Trump marketing campaign.” • It sounds just like the Committee would slightly indict the entire Republican Social gathering as an alternative of Trump, so why don’t they only go forward and try this?
Biden Administration
“McConnell says Pelosi would hand China a win if she sacks Taiwan journey after complaints” [New York Post]. “The Kentucky Republican was requested in regards to the speaker touring to Taiwan amid China’s threats and stated there are different issues past the journey that must be mentioned. ‘If she doesn’t go now, she’s dealing with China a kind of a victory of types,’ McConnell stated at a Senate Republican management information convention on Tuesday.” • Oh, nice. Has there ever been a really dangerous concept that wasn’t bipartisan?
“Pelosi has invited senior lawmakers to hitch Taiwan journey, prime Republican says” [NBC]. Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., has invited a small group of lawmakers on her official journey to Taiwan, together with the highest Democrat and Republican on the Home International Affairs Committee, Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Texas, instructed NBC Information on Wednesday. McCaul, the rating member on the overseas affairs panel, stated each he and Chairman Gregory Meeks, D-N.Y., have been invited by the speaker on an upcoming journey to the self-ruling island that China sees as below its management. The Texas Republican stated he declined the invitation on account of a private obligation that conflicts with the go to. The journey is slated to happen through the congressional August recess, although McCaul didn’t present the precise dates. ‘Any member that wishes to go, ought to. It exhibits political deterrence to President Xi,’ McCaul, a China hawk, stated in a quick interview within the Capitol. ‘However she must also take note of the navy if it’s going to trigger a blowback and escalate issues.’” • McCaul’s place is definitely extra accountable than Pelosi’s.
“Home Democrats Urge Extra Vegetarian Meals in US Buildings” [Bloomberg]. “US authorities cafeterias ought to add vegetarian meal choices to all menus, a bunch of 32 Democrats from the Home of Representatives stated in a letter to President Joe Biden on Tuesday….. Plant-based meals can produce “dramatic” enhancements for people’ well being, and serving them in federal amenities would scale back the federal government’s carbon footprint, the group stated. Agriculture accounted for 11% of US greenhouse gasoline emissions in 2020, in line with the US Environmental Safety Company.” • All true, however is “small ball” politics actually what we want proper now?
2022
* * * PA: “Gen Z mobilizes for midterm elections as research emphasizes younger voters’ outsize affect on Pa. politics” [Post-Gazette]. “Earlier this summer season, the political division at Tufts College in Massachusetts launched a research rating Pennsylvania as the highest state the place youth are poised to have a disproportionately excessive electoral affect within the 2022 elections. Partially, that’s on account of Pennsylvania’s excessive price of youth voter registration, which sits at 69% — to not point out the substantial 54% of youth that really voted within the 2020 elections, giving President Joe Biden a web benefit of 150,000 votes from that demographic.”
PA: “John Fetterman Isn’t Doing What He Thinks He Is With His Meme Roasts of Dr. Oz” [Slate]. Key level: “[T]right here is little proof that social media resonance has a tangible impact on electoral success.” • I view the social media effort as a holding motion (and in addition a strategy to distract the vicious kids within the political class with memes, which is each enjoyable and the best factor to do). As long as Fetterman’s numbers hoild up, I gained’t fear an excessive amount of. (I’m much more apprehensive about Fetterman’s efficiency in debate, if there’s one. Perhaps they may make issues simple for Oz, and maintain it at Rutgers?)
PA: All people hates a vacationer:
My mother shopped there right now and complained that there have been extra vacationers than traditional. https://t.co/J7La0tKZbK
— John Fetterman (@JohnFetterman) July 26, 2022
(Good concept for a Fetterman theme tune, truly.)
TX: “If sufficient Texas Democrats vote, Beto O’Rourke will probably be governor, Dallas county choose says” [Dallas Morning-News]. “The prospects for Democrats in Texas are “ever-improving,” Dallas County Choose Clay Jenkins instructed the group on the Texas Democratic Conference in Dallas on Friday. He stated the get together can win by reaching out to new voters and people who usually don’t vote for Democrats. Beto O’Rourke, who’s difficult Gov. Greg Abbott, is working to enchantment to disaffected Republicans and independents, along with Democrats. ‘If sufficient Democrats in Texas vote, Beto O’Rourke will probably be our governor,’ he instructed the fired-up crowd.
2024
“Trump tiptoes nearer to new White Home run in DC handle” [The Hill]. “Trump’s viability as a pacesetter of the get together has been thrown into query a minimum of for the second as a Home committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the Capitol spotlights the previous president’s function in spreading falsehoods in regards to the 2020 election, encouraging his supporters to return to the Capitol after which doing nothing for hours to quell the violence. Polling has proven majorities imagine Trump bears accountability for the Jan. 6 assault. And newer polls have indicated a minimum of among the Republican Social gathering is prepared to maneuver on from Trump in favor of an alternate candidate in 2024.” • Response to Trump’s America First Agenda Summit in Washington, DC.
“Mike Pence squares as much as Donald Trump as former operating mates eye 2024 bids” [Financial Times]. “On Tuesday morning, Mike Pence stood earlier than a crowd of younger Republicans in Washington DC, outlining his imaginative and prescient for the way forward for the get together and calling on its supporters to keep away from ‘the temptation to look again’. Six hours later and a mile down the street, the previous vice-president’s erstwhile boss, Donald Trump, made his personal pitch for the get together’s future at a convention for the America First Coverage Institute, repeating his disproved claims of fraud within the 2020 election and teasing the potential for one other presidential run. ‘If I renounced my beliefs, if I agreed to remain silent . . . the persecution of Donald Trump would cease instantly,’ he instructed the group. ‘However that’s not what I’ll do . . . I’ve to avoid wasting our nation.’ The back-to-back speeches within the US capital have been the newest proof of the simmering feud between the previous operating mates turned political foes and of their competing political ambitions, with each eyeing a bid for the White Home in 2024. In his speech on the Younger America’s Basis’s Nationwide Conservative Scholar Convention, Pence attacked the ‘aggressive liberalism’ [lol] of the Biden administration and Democrats and stated this yr’s midterm elections provided Republicans ‘one of the best probability we’ll ever should construct a long-lasting majority.’ However he additionally made a thinly veiled plea for the get together to interrupt with Trump, urging Republicans to deal with profitable Congress after which the White Home slightly than preventing historic battles. ‘Now some folks might select to deal with the previous,’ he stated. ‘However elections . . . are in regards to the future. And I imagine conservatives should deal with the longer term to win again America.’ Pence is hoping he can overcome anger amongst Republican voters — lots of whom fault him for certifying Joe Biden’s election victory in 2020 — by taking credit score for financial, immigration and commerce insurance policies applied through the Trump administration.” • I might speculate that many Republican voters are of the thoughts of Baron Harkonnen: “The person should die. He tried to assist my enemies.” Definitely one future to stay up for! One in all life’s little ironies is that Pence, as the person who didn’t “get into the automobile,” is probably greatest positioned to articulate a “concept of the case” towards Trump’s actions or inactions through the Capitol seizure. I don’t see Pence because the grasp communicator who might carry out that plot reversal, nevertheless.
“Buttigieg edges out Biden amongst Democrats in New Hampshire ballot” [The Hill]. “The College of New Hampshire (UNH) Survey Middle Granite Ballot discovered that 17 p.c of probably 2024 Democratic major voters within the state would select Buttigieg amongst an inventory of Democrats, or those that caucus with Democrats, who’re thought-about attainable 2024 presidential contenders. Biden acquired 16 p.c assist, adopted by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), who every got here in at 10 p.c. A handful of different Democrats, as well as Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), acquired lower than 10 p.c. The margin of error for among the many Democrats polled particularly is plus or minus 4.7 factors, that means Buttgieg and Biden are statistically tied amongst voters. However the polling additional demonstrates that Democrats should not wedded to the concept of selecting Biden as their nominee within the subsequent presidential cycle. The White Home has stated Biden intends to run in 2024, although Buttigieg has not made any bulletins on the matter.” • One would possibly suppose that treatring protection of “our democracy” as a core worth after which nominating a candidate who declared himself (falsely) the winner of a major earlier than a single vote was formally counted* would one way or the other be at odds, however then these are Democrats, who’re notably versatile of their pondering. NOTE * Iowa 2020.
Republican Funhouse
“Telling the Reality in regards to the 2020 Election” [By Thomas B. Griffith, J. Michael Luttig, Michael W. Mcconnell, Theodore B. Olson, Benjamin L. Ginsberg, and Dave Hoppe, National Review]. “Persevering with allegations that the 2020 election was ‘stolen’ are roiling our politics and dividing our nation. Certainly, now a big share of the American public doubts the legitimacy of our system. That induced us, political conservatives who’ve spent most of our careers working to uphold the Structure and the conservative rules upon which it’s primarily based, to delve deeply into these prices and gauge their accuracy. All of us have both labored in Republican Social gathering politics at a number of ranges and in numerous capacities or labored within the authorities because of Republican appointments. Certainly, certainly one of us, Theodore B. Olson, efficiently represented George W. Bush in a Supreme Courtroom case that ended Al Gore’s unmerited problem to the outcomes of the 2000 presidential election. We have now no affiliation with the Democratic Social gathering…. As a result of allegations of fraudulent and rigged elections are so significantly affecting public opinion, particularly amongst Republicans, we performed an open-minded examination of the numerous claims by former president Trump and his supporters and allies who agree with him in regards to the 2020 election and tried to behave on their beliefs. We take such claims significantly…. Subsequently, we painstakingly surveyed every of the 187 counts within the 64 courtroom instances introduced on Trump’s behalf contesting the outcomes of the 2020 election, the state recounts and contests introduced within the identify of the previous president, and the post-election opinions undertaken within the six key battleground states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) to find out whether or not there’s any fireplace amidst all of the smoke. Our overview has led us to conclude that there’s merely no proof of fraud within the 2020 presidential election of the magnitude essential to shift the end in any state, not to mention the nation as a complete. In actual fact, not even a single precinct’s end result was reversed.” • Their report. It’s not, nevertheless, clear that the Republican Social gathering wherein these people have been grandees even exists anymore.
Democrats en Déshabillé
I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Social gathering (“the Democrat Social gathering is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated put up, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “reside” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Social gathering is, actually, a tough downside. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the way in which again to 2016, if not earlier than:
The Democrat Social gathering is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Social gathering didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working components of the Social gathering reinforce one another. Go away apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Social gathering (ka-ching, however not solely) these components comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence neighborhood.
Word, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.
* * * “‘There was virtually no debate’: How Dems’ protection spending spree went from shocker to snoozer” [Politico]. “Final yr, Democrats on Capitol Hill surprised observers once they voted to ladle tens of billions of additional {dollars} onto President Joe Biden’s first Pentagon price range. Wielding management of the Home, Senate and White Home for the primary time in a decade, Democrats have been anticipated to carry the road on Pentagon spending that ballooned below Republicans and the Trump administration. Now, Congress is poised to do it once more — with much more cash at stake — and it’s something however surprising.” • That’s as a result of Democrats are the Battle Social gathering.
Invoice Kristol as not a part of the Republican Institution….
For the Republican institution, there are not any actual limits or purple strains. Bigotry, conspiracy, anti-democracy–all are to be ignored within the service of victory for the Social gathering.
First ignored. Then rationalized. Then justified. Finally…embraced.
https://t.co/a4e9U4U9es— Invoice Kristol (@BillKristol) July 26, 2022
The thoughts reels. It’s like, say, Cromwell morphing right into a Royalist.
Obama Legacy
Thanks, Obama!
I take into consideration this 2009 story rather a lot.
A Dem governor of a purple state touting single-payer & then this from the Dem president (who had beforehand stated he supported M4A).
“Minutes later, Obama made it clear he doesn’t favor adopting such a system within the US” https://t.co/71j73P29Zp
— David Sirota (@davidsirota) July 26, 2022
And undercutting a Pink State advocate!
“Biden’s Issues Go Again To 2009” [Seeing the Forest]. Closing sentence: “When you consider ALL the issues Democrats might have completed after the general public DEMANDED change, placing Obama into the presidency and delivering HUGE majorities within the Home and Senate – however selected to not – you may see why issues are the way in which they’re right now.” • Precisely.
Realignment and Legitimacy
“America’s Self-Obsession Is Killing Its Democracy” [The Atlantic]. “American democracy is dying. There are many medicines that will treatment it. Sadly, our political dysfunction means we’re selecting to not use them, and as time passes, fewer therapies turn into accessible to us, despite the fact that the illness is turning into terminal. No main prodemocracy reforms have handed Congress. No key political figures who tried to overturn an American election have confronted actual accountability. The president who orchestrated the best menace to our democracy in fashionable occasions is free to run for reelection, and will nicely return to workplace. Our present state of affairs began with a botched analysis. When Trump first rose to political prominence, a lot of the American political class reacted with amusement, seeing him as a sideshow. Even when he gained, they thought, he’d tweet like a populist firebrand whereas governing like a Romney Republican, constrained by the system. However for individuals who had watched Trump-like authoritarian strongmen rise in Turkey, India, Hungary, Poland, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Venezuela, Trump was by no means entertaining. He was ominously acquainted. At concern was a traditional frame-of-reference downside. America’s political tradition is astonishingly insular. Activate cable information and it’s all America, on a regular basis. Different nations sometimes make cameos, however the story remains to be about us… Our self-obsession implies that each time authoritarianism rises overseas, it’s talked about briefly, if in any respect. Have you ever ever noticed a breathless octobox of speaking heads on CNN or Fox Information debating the demise of democracy in Turkey, Sri Lanka, or the Philippines? That’s why most American pundits and journalists used an ‘outsider involves Washington’ framework to course of Trump’s marketing campaign and his presidency, when they need to have been becoming each contemporary reality into an ‘authoritarian populist’ framework or a ‘democratic demise spiral’ framework. Whereas debates raged over tax cuts and offensive tweets, the largest story was typically obscured: The system itself was in danger.” • In actual fact, America, though deeply provincial, is certainly distinctive:
I’m again within the USA to say that the American coverage debate ought to in all probability focus extra on the truth that we’re continuously dying. https://t.co/92djCTYsaQ pic.twitter.com/8IbbP7ezX0
— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) July 26, 2022
We’re engaged in an enormous social experiment to see whether or not an elite (ruling + governing lessons) can “cull the herd” in six-figure portions, and nonetheless retain hegemony (TINA); the Covid pandemic is barely the newest and most blatant instance. To date, the reply appears to be sure, and even “Hell, yeah!” Considered in that mild, is “the system” “in danger” in any respect?
“On the marketing campaign path, many Republicans discuss of violence” [WaPo]. “Each candidates described a rustic that was not merely in hassle, however being destroyed by leaders who despise most Individuals — successfully a part of a civil struggle. In each swing states and protected seats, many Republicans say that liberals hate them personally[1] and will flip rioters or a police state[2] on individuals who disobey them.” • NOTES [1] Are they flawed? [2] A police state? Democrats?! Commentary:
to be clear, “strive” is the operative phrase right here https://t.co/zd9VjOUpPH
— ryan cooper (@ryanlcooper) July 26, 2022
“Is Democracy Constitutional?” [Adam Serwer, The Atlantic]. “In Moore v. Harper, North Carolina Republicans are arguing that no different state physique, together with the state supreme courtroom, has the facility to limit the legislature’s capacity to set voting guidelines—particularly ones permitting legislators to gerrymander the state, in defiance of a ruling by the state supreme courtroom discovering that their plan violated the state constitutional modification guaranteeing the best to vote. This perception relies on a crank authorized premise referred to as the ‘independent-state-legislature concept.” Appears like one thing John C. Calhoun would love. Extra: “The independent-state-legislature concept has drawn an excessive amount of consideration for its most radical potential software, the potential for a legislature voting to throw out its state’s presidential-election outcomes and appointing electors to favor the candidate of its alternative…. If the Supreme Courtroom upholds the independent-state-legislature concept, it would deprive the general public of yet one more technique of defending itself. For the get together that appoMinted the vast majority of the justices, that will be ultimate.”
“The English Vocabulary and the Way forward for Capitalism” [Capital as Power]. “Blair [Fix] compares [here] the usage of financial versus biblical vocabularies. He exhibits (1) that, within the English language, the ‘jargons’ of the 2 vocabularies are virtually mutually unique; (2) that, traditionally, the relative significance of those two jargons moved roughly inversely to one another; and (3) and most surprisingly, that within the late twentieth century, the significance of biblical jargon began to rise whereas that of economics started to say no (first determine). If this newest inflection is a harbinger of future tendencies, Blair argues, we would have already handed ‘peak capitalism’. Commentary:
8/ If this newest inflection is a harbinger of future tendencies, Blair argues, we would have already handed ‘peak capitalism’.
— Bichler & Nitzan (@BichlerNitzan) July 25, 2022
Seems to be like yet one more instance of a “What the heck occurred within the mid-70s?” chart….
* * * “Proper-wing group is quietly conducting overview of 300,000 Tarrant County ballots from 2020 major” [Texas Tribune]. “Round 40 volunteers with a conservative group questioning the integrity of Texas election outcomes, in addition to that of some election directors, have begun a overview of hundreds of ballots from Tarrant County’s March 2020 GOP major election…. Members are particularly counting votes within the Republican major for U.S. Senate, wherein Sen. John Cornyn gained with 73% of the vote in Tarrant County over his closest challenger, who gained 13% of the county’s votes. The group additionally alleges a spread of fraudulent actions associated to the 2020 November normal election in Tarrant and different counties throughout the state however has provided no proof to assist the allegations.” • It’s good that ballots are public data in Texas. However observe that if the ballots have been hand-marked and hand-counted in public, the adminstrative burden Tarrant County complains of could be eradicated. So would any doubt about election outcomes.
#COVID19
• I’ll have extra to say about airplane air sooner or later. Right here’s a teaser:
Passenger reveals shockingly soiled air in Air New Zealand cabin, by way of @nzherald https://t.co/VItSuv7E00
— CO2Review (@Co2Review) July 26, 2022
• Your library might do that:
Wanting to take a look at an Aranet4 CO2 monitor?
Your native library might be able to assist. Now accessible in Toronto, Hamilton, Guelph, Peterborough & Excessive River.
Thx @CAVI_CO2 @Prescientx1 @AranetIoT !!
👏@ptbolibrary @torontolibrary @HamiltonLibrary @GuelphLibrary @HighRiverLib pic.twitter.com/7pzDXbtUtC— Barry Hunt #COVIDisAirborne 🌬 😷🪟 (@BarryHunt008) July 26, 2022
Should you missed it, right here’s a put up on my queasiness with CDC numbers, particularly case rely, which I (nonetheless) think about most necessary, regardless of what Walensky’s psychos at CDC who invented “neighborhood ranges” suppose. However these are the numbers we’ve got.
Case Rely
Case rely for the USA:
The prepare remains to be rolling. There was a bizarre, plateau-like “fiddling and diddling” stage earlier than the Omicron explosion, too. This conjuncture feels the identical. Below the hood the BA.4/BA.5 are making up a larger and larger proportion of instances. Keep in mind that instances are undercounted, one supply saying by an element of six, Gottlieb pondering we solely decide up one in seven or eight.) Therefore, I take the case rely and multiply it by six to approximate the true degree of instances, and draw the DNC-blue “Biden Line” at that time. The earlier rely was ~122,150. At the moment, it’s ~129,000 and 129,000 * 6 = a Biden line at 774,000 per day. That’s slightly quite a lot of instances per day, when you consider it. At the least we’ve got affirmation that the extraordinary mass of case anecdotes we’ve seen have a foundation in actuality. (Keep in mind these knowledge factors are weekly averages, so every day fluctuations are smoothed out.) The black “Fauci Line” is a counter to triumphalism, because it compares present ranges to previous crises.
Regional case rely for 4 weeks:
The South:
A gradual upswing in the remainder of the south, beneath the Florida and Texas gyrations.
The West:
Positivity
NOT UPDATED From the Walgreen’s check positivity tracker, July 19:
1.1%. Up. (I’m wondering if there’s a Keynesian Magnificence Contest impact, right here; that’s, if folks encounter a sympotomatic particular person, whether or not of their social circle or in regular exercise, they’re extra prone to get a check, as a result of they imagine, appropriately, that it’s extra probably they are going to be contaminated.) What we’re seeing right here is the steepest and largest acceleration of positivity on Walgreen’s chart.
Lambert right here: I’m depressed. Walgreens has been so nice, and now this knowledge isn’t updating. What provides?
Transmission
Here is CDC’s interactive map by county set to community transmission. This is the map CDC wants only hospitals to look at, not you. For July 21, 2020:
Established order, i.e. it’s a completely not-over pandemic.
Lambert right here: After the transfer from the CDC to the laughingly named ‘https://healthdata.gov,” this discover appeared: “Efficient June 22, 2022, the Group Profile Report will solely be up to date twice per week, on Wednesdays and Fridays.” So now the administration has belatedly come to the conclusion that we’re in a BA.5 surge, and but important knowledge for making our private threat evaluation is barely accessible twice per week. What’s the over/below on whether or not they truly ship tomorrow?
Fast Riser knowledge, by county (CDC), July 26:
Worse in California and Upstate New York (what’s up with that). Higher in Texas. Established order elsewere.
Earlier Fast Riser knowledge:
Hospitalization knowledge, by state (CDC), July 26:
Numerous yellow. Haven’t seen so little inexperienced (good) in fairly a while.
Variants
Lambert right here: It’s past irritating how gradual the variant knowledge is. I seemed for extra charts: California doesn’t to a BA.4/BA.5 breakdown. New York does however it, too, is on a molasses-like two-week cycle. Does no person within the public well being institution get a promotion for monitoring variants? Are there no grants? Is there a single lab that does this work, and all people will get the outcomes from them? Extra sources from readers welcome [grinds teeth, bangs head on desk].
NOT UPDATED Variant knowledge, nationwide (Walgreens), July 10:
NOT UPDATED Variant knowledge, nationwide (CDC), July 9 (Nowcast off):
BA.5 transferring alongside properly.
Wastewater
Wastewater knowledge (CDC), Jul 23:
I discovered this chart arduous to learn, so I filtered the output to the very best ranges (considerably like Fast Riser Counties, see on right here). What’s seen is that quite a lot of cities are in hassle; however that protection is absolutely patchy. Illinois, for instance, has all the time had quite a lot of protection, however the dots cease on the Illinois border. This chart works a bit like speedy riser counties: “This metric exhibits whether or not SARS-CoV-2 ranges at a web site are at present greater or decrease than previous historic ranges on the identical web site. 0% means ranges are the bottom they’ve been on the web site; 100% means ranges are the very best they’ve been on the web site.” So, there’s a bunch of purple dots on the West Coast. That’s 100%, so which means “ranges are the very best they’ve ever been.” Not damaged down by variant, CDC, good job.
Deaths
Dying price (Our World in Knowledge):
Whole: 1,052,935 1,052,467. I’ve added an anti-triumphalist Fauci Line. It’s good that for deaths I’ve a pleasant, easy, every day chart that simply retains chugging alongside, not like the whole lot else CDC and the White Home are screwing up or letting go darkish, good job.
Stats Watch
Manufacturing: “United States Sturdy Items Orders” [Trading Economics]. “New orders for US-made capital items rose 1.9 p.c from a month earlier in June of 2022, probably the most since January and the fourth consecutive month-to-month enhance. Figures beat market forecasts for a 0.5 p.c lower in an indication that enterprise spending plans stay sturdy to date regardless of greater rates of interest and inflation.”
The Bezzle: “Dashcam repo” [Cory Doctorow, Pluralistic]. If you would like a motto for the present financial state of affairs, a touchstone to verify in on everytime you hear a couple of new enterprise mannequin or a brand new depredation, I recommend Michael Hudson’s bedrock declare: “Money owed that may’t be paid, gained’t be paid.” 40 years of wage stagnation, mixed with spiraling well being, housing and training prices have produced a mountain of unpayable money owed. Our society is organized round a small variety of collectors extracting rents from an ever-growing pool of debtors whose capacity to pay is eroded by each penalty and each emergency triggered by the dearth of a cushion: Enter the digital arm-breaker. Networked, digital objects make arm-breaking cheaper and more practical than ever, remodeling the artisinal, private craft of terrorizing debtors right into a mass-scale industrial exercise. Miss a automobile fee? Perhaps that automobile has a second, remote-controlled stereo that blares indignant calls for at you wherever you go: https://version.cnn.com/2009/LIVING/wayoflife/04/17/aa.payments.shut.engine.down/index.html Or possibly the vendor can immobilize it, disabling the ignition system: https://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/09/24/miss-a-payment-good-luck-moving-that-car/ Or possibly it’s a Tesla, which can lock and immobilize itself and sign the vendor, then, when the repo man arrives, will flash its lights, honk its horn and again out of its parking place to ease repossession: https://tiremeetsroad.com/2021/03/18/tesla-allegedly-remotely-unlocks-model-3-owners-car-uses-smart-summon-to-help-repo-agent/ Algorithms can automate the arm-breaker’s inventive sadism.” • A must-read.
Tech: “Google’s Nest Will Present Knowledge to Police And not using a Warrant” [PetaPixel]. • That’s good.
At the moment’s Worry & Greed Index: 37 Worry (earlier shut: 38 Worry) [CNN]. One week in the past: 27 (Worry). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Jul 27 at 1:20 PM EDT.
Zeitgeist Watch
“Pretend Canine for Residence Safety” [Tanner]. “I arrange a faux canine that barks if my surveillance cameras are triggered whereas I’m out of city on trip. It’s a pair of laptop audio system plugged right into a Raspberry Pi, which is an affordable single-board laptop. One speaker faces the entrance door and the opposite faces the aspect door. When the entrance door digital camera is triggered my surveillance digital camera system sends a message to the Raspberry Pi. A easy program performs an audio clip of an enormous canine barking by the aspect speaker after which the entrance speaker. The change in audio system simulates a canine transferring in direction of the entrance door. The alternative occurs if the aspect door digital camera is triggered….”
Guillotine Watch
“Brooklyn pastor says he and his spouse have been robbed of greater than $1 million in jewellery whereas preaching” [CNN]. “A flashy Brooklyn pastor recognized for sporting designer outfits and lavish jewellery says he was robbed alongside together with his spouse of greater than $1 million whereas he was preaching at church Sunday. Police say they acquired a report that three folks entered the Leaders of Tomorrow church Sunday with firearms and eliminated the jewellery pastor Lamor Miller-Whitehead, who goes by Bishop, and his spouse have been sporting.” • I feel Jesus would have accredited.
Information of the Wired
“Assist decide a syntax for CSS nesting” [Chrome Developers]. Not only for Chrome! Seems to be to me like the unique CSS is extra clear. However builders love them their squiggly brackets… Any CSS professionals within the readership with views?
Contact info for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a verify if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me pictures of crops. Greens are superb! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you would like your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it at first of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From Beez:
Beez writes: “2 in 1. Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops!” And: “Lambert! We’re in luck. Connected is a Coral Fungi! Not as vibrant as some pictures but encapsulates fungi & coral in a single. Clavarioid fungi, colloquially Coral Fungi. Eucalyptus Ironbark flower in foreground amongst leaf litter. NSW Australia.”
Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not coated by the not too long ago concluded and — thanks! — profitable annual NC fundraiser. So should you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see wherever else, please don’t hesitate to specific your appreciation in tangible kind. Keep in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common optimistic suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. Once I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get apprehensive. Extra tangibly, a continuing trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I think about that trickle when setting fundraising objectives:
Right here is the display screen that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:
Should you hate PayPal, you may electronic mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I provides you with instructions on tips on how to ship a verify. Thanks!
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