2:00PM Water Cooler 8/18/2023 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Chicken Tune of the Day

Bobolink, 450 Fort Warwick Passage,Pocahontas, West Virginia, United States.

Search for the Helpers

MWB writes:

HRH and I drove to Prospect, NC to view Shangri-La, a people artwork village labor of affection fabricated of native white rock blasted by a retired tobacco farmer. He and his spouse had been childless and he constructed this for youngsters. Typically I feel we’re not so unhealthy.

Shangri-La village:

Good marigolds, too!

Politics

“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are the truth is a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

The Constitutional Order

Two households, each alike in dignity,
In truthful Verona, the place we lay our scene,
From historic grudge break to new mutiny,
The place civil blood makes civil fingers unclean. –William Shakespeare, Romeo and Juliet

Shakespeare says the 2 households are “alike” in dignity, however he doesn’t say how a lot dignity they really have. If Verona’s households are like our events, the reply is “not a lot.”

* * *

“The Sweep and Pressure of Part Three” [William Baude and Michael Stokes Paulsen, University of Pennsylvania Law Review]. I extremely suggest this piece (and the following dialogue at NC, beginning right here). As a former English main and a fan of shut studying, I’m not averse to “originalism,” of which Baude and Paulsen present a magisterial instance, within the sense that understanding the regulation as a textual content should start with understanding the plain, public that means of the phrases used when the textual content was written. That’s how I learn Shakespeare, or Joyce, so why not the Structure? Simply so long as understanding doesn’t finish there! In any case, I’m working by means of it. One factor I discover is that there do appear to have been quite a variety of rebellions and insurrections, not simply the Civil Conflict. To me, that is parallel to at least one lesson I drew from Mike Duncan’s Revolutions podcast (episode 1): There are quite a variety of revolutions, too. Alert reader Pensions Man summarizes Baude and Paulsen as follows:

The authors undergo an exhaustive textual and originalism evaluation of Part Three, and their Federalist Society leanings don’t deter them from reaching their conclusion that officers in each State who’re charged with figuring out candidate {qualifications} ought to conclude that Donald Trump is disqualified from being on ballots due to the oath he took on Inauguration Day 2017 and subsequently violated by means of his function within the rebellion that occurred on January 6, 2021.

Taking “rebellion” as learn (I must do extra studying), right here is one other aggregation on Part Three.

* * *

“This Week Contained in the Huge Tent” [Brian Beutler, The Big Tent]. “Lower than every week after the rebellion, the appellate advocate Deepak Gupta and I printed an early article within the New York Occasions on the promise of the 14th Modification possibility and recommended a couple of treatments—an act of Congress, or intelligent litigation, or a mixture of the 2.” Sure, the occasions of January 2 had been immediately framed as an “rebellion.” Extra: “In January of 2021, earlier than Trump had confronted his second impeachment, these choices weren’t but ripe. Two-and-a half-years later, Trump is the runaway favourite to win the GOP presidential nomination for the third time, one among his best-polling challengers, former Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey, has demonstrated a uncommon willingness amongst Republicans to confront Trump over his corruption and lawlessness; he and lots of different main Republicans have publicly dedicated themselves to the view that Trump is uniquely positioned amongst candidates to lose the 2024 election, . The problem is instantly very ripe, and plucking it ahead of later would serve the pursuits of all Individuals, together with the previous president, whose very freedom could also be at stake.” • Want to search out the calendar on this…. 

“The Structure bars Trump from holding public workplace ever once more” [Donald K. Sherman, The Hill]. Final September, three New Mexico residents represented by my group, Residents for Duty and Ethics in Washington, received the primary case in additional than 150 years eradicating an elected official from workplace primarily based on participation in an rebellion. The courtroom dominated that then-New Mexico County Commissioner Couy Griffin had violated Part Three of the 14th Modification by recruiting males for battle to affix Trump’s “”wild”” effort to overturn the election Jan. 6, normalized violence and breached police obstacles as a part of the weaponized mob that allowed others to overwhelm regulation enforcement and storm the Capitol. Griffin’s removing marked the primary case on the federal or state stage concluding that what occurred Jan. 6 was an rebellion. In Griffin’s case, the courtroom discovered that disqualifying officers beneath Part Three of the 14th Modification doesn’t battle with the First Modification proper to protest. It additionally rebuffed makes an attempt by Griffin to conflate Jan. 6 with Black Lives Matter protests… .” • Appparently, this explicit NGO has been laboring within the winery for a while. See additionally 2023’s “DisqualifIed: The Case for Donald Trump’s Disqualification beneath the Fourteenth Modification” (PDF).

Biden Administration

“Biden’s fall Covid vaccine rollout for the uninsured received’t embrace pharmacies at first” [Politico]. “The Biden administration’s effort to supply free Covid-19 vaccines to the uninsured is not going to begin at retail pharmacies till mid-October, weeks after the federal government plans to make an up to date model of the shot out there to the broader public. The hole in timing, which comes as Covid hospitalizations have ticked up in current weeks, implies that tens of millions of Individuals with out well being protection won’t be able to instantly get a no-cost vaccine at in style locations like CVS and Walgreens, whilst will probably be extensively out there for many who have insurance coverage.” • Stochastic eugenics, good job. See Rule #2.

2024

Time for the Countdown Clock!

“Donald Trump calls off press convention the place he stated he would share report on Georgia election fraud claims” [Politico]. “Former President Donald Trump will now not maintain a information convention nor launch a supposed in depth report that he beforehand stated would clear him and his allies of wrongdoing within the wake of his newest indictment by a Georgia grand jury, he stated on Thursday. ‘Reasonably than releasing the Report on the Rigged & Stolen Georgia 2020 Presidential Election on Monday, my legal professionals would like placing this, I imagine, Irrefutable & Overwhelming proof of Election Fraud & Irregularities in formal Authorized Filings as we combat to dismiss this disgraceful Indictment by a publicity & marketing campaign finance searching for D.A., who sadly presides over a document breaking Homicide & Violent Crime space, Atlanta. Due to this fact, the Information Convention is now not mandatory!’ Trump wrote in a Fact Social submit on Thursday night.” • Hmm. This suggests that Trump’s legal professionals had been capable of stuff him again into his field. There’s a primary time for all the pieces! (And, if that’s the case, Trump has the legal professionals he wants.)

“Trump requests April 2026 begin for election fraud trial” [Axios]. “Attorneys for former President Trump requested an April 2026 begin date for the trial on his alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election, in line with a Thursday courtroom submitting. Why it issues: The request within the case introduced by particular counsel Jack Smith comes because the Republican presidential main front-runner faces a collision course between his mounting courtroom instances and his 2024 marketing campaign.”

“Individuals are divided alongside get together strains over Trump’s actions in election instances, AP-NORC ballot exhibits” [Associated Press]. “The ballot from The Related Press-NORC Heart for Public Affairs Analysis, which was carried out earlier than Monday’s expenses within the Georgia case, additionally exhibits that about half of Individuals — 53% — approve of the Justice Division indicting Trump over his efforts to stay in workplace after dropping the 2020 election. The ballot finds 85% of Democrats approve of the prison expenses introduced Aug. 2 by Particular Counsel Jack Smith, in contrast with 47% of independents and simply 16% of Republicans. General, 3 in 10 Individuals disapprove, together with about two-thirds of Republicans.”

“Election employees who face frequent harassment see accountability within the newest Georgia expenses” [Associated Press]. “Tonya Wichman has overseen elections in a rural Ohio county for eight years and hasn’t skilled any important issues with voting or counting the ballots. However that doesn’t imply no large worries in any respect. What does concern her is the frequent harassment, intimidation and even bodily threats she and her employees have been receiving for the reason that 2020 election. It bought so unhealthy forward of the 2022 midterms that her employees bought police safety when leaving or coming to the workplace…. Election employee intimidation is one key component of the conspiracy alleged within the Georgia case. Tuesday’s indictment alleges that a number of of the defendants falsely accused Fulton County election employee Ruby Freeman of committing election crimes and says some defendants traveled from out of state to harass and intimidate her.”

“Trump’s Toast, Of us” [CATO Institute]. The Georgia indictment is a bombshell—the equal of a Texas Maintain’em poker participant shoving their complete stack of chips into the center of the desk and declaring, “”All in.”” In sum, the Georgia indictment alleges that Trump orchestrated a sprawling prison conspiracy (or “”enterprise,”” within the language of the indictment and Georgia’s state RICO statute) involving greater than 20 named and unnamed co‐​conspirators ranging throughout half‐​a‐​dozen states for the aim of unlawfully altering the results of the November 2020 presidential election. There may be nothing delicate or nuanced about this indictment—in impact, it accuses Donald Trump, Rudy Giuliani, Mark Meadows, John Eastman, Jeffrey Clark, Sidney Powell, and a dozen others of staging an unsuccessful coup. If the case goes to trial, which appears doubtless, the jury will both imagine that characterization or they won’t. I feel they are going to, for 3 causes. 1. Trump’s disdain for fact. America has seen its fair proportion of mendacity politicians, however Donald Trump is in a category of his personal…. 2. Trump’s disdain for course of. Once more, Donald Trump doesn’t see the world the way in which regular folks do. As a substitute of establishments to be revered and guidelines to be adopted, he sees marks to be gulled and techniques to be gamed—emphatically together with elections and trials.” • And that is the attention-grabbing argument:

3. Complexity. The third motive Trump will likely be convicted in a number of of the instances in opposition to him is that this: complexity. Litigation is an advanced course of that includes an usually thoughts‐​numbing interaction of procedural guidelines, substantive legal guidelines, courtroom filings, paperwork, discovery, truth witnesses, knowledgeable witness, and a relentless procession of unexpected twists and turns that evoke the maxim that no plan survives contact with the enemy. And that complexity multiplies geometrically with the variety of associated proceedings occurring on the similar time, which implies that Trump’s authorized groups will discover it almost unimaginable to coordinate throughout all 4 of the continuing prosecutions in New York, Florida, DC, and now Georgia. Nevertheless it’s even worse than that. Litigation complexity is tough sufficient to handle with a shopper who performs it straight, each with the courtroom and with their very own counsel. However Trump doesn’t play it straight—he by no means has, and it seems he’s constitutionally incapable of doing so. So he’ll lie: in courtroom, in public, on social media and—fatally—to his personal legal professionals. Merely put, Trump’s protection groups won’t be able to maintain observe of all of the completely different positions their shopper has taken (or directed his numerous legal professionals to absorb completely different proceedings), and ultimately issues will come utterly unraveled.

Hubris, meet nemesis?

* * *
* * *

“Then-VP Joe Biden used PSEUDONYM ‘Robert L. Peters’ in emails to Hunter about Ukraine enterprise: GOP ramps up Biden household corruption probe and calls for Nationwide Archives hand over data” [Daily Mail]. “Republicans are searching for data revealing Joe Biden’s use of pseudonyms to debate his actions associated to Ukraine along with his son Hunter throughout his time as vice chairman. They particularly need an un-redacted doc that signifies that then-Vice President Biden took a name with the president of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, on Could 27, 2016. Republicans say the doc was emailed to ‘Robert L. Peters’ which is ‘a pseudonym’ the Home Oversight Committee has ‘recognized as then Vice-President Biden,’ a letter obtained by DailyMail.com states.” • The document request:

NEW: Rep. James Comer has uncovered a pseudonym that Joe Biden used as vice chairman that was utilized in an e-mail along with his son Hunter Biden.

Time for an additional Trump indictment?

Comer not too long ago revealed Biden’s pseudonym, Robert L. Peters, which was utilized in an e-mail with Hunter… pic.twitter.com/U2IPX1YXeh

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) August 17, 2023

“Column: An unlikely resolution to the issues with Harris and Feinstein” [Los Angeles Times]. “Biden apparently chosen Harris largely due to an anticipated consolation stage primarily based on her shut working relationship along with his late son, Beau, once they had been each state attorneys common.” • Ah. For the reason that apple doesn’t fall removed from the tree, maybe Beau noticed in Harris what Willie Brown noticed in Harris.

“Trump’s (Nonetheless) the One” [John Nichols, The New Republic]. “Even permitting for the unlikely risk of jury verdicts and jail sentences earlier than subsequent summer season, the Republican Nationwide Conference is shaping up as one large Trump rally. If something, Trump’s troubles with the regulation have solidified his grip on a Republican Occasion that he’s remade in his personal picture—full with a persecution advanced that sees prison complaints as proof that the ‘deep state’ is ‘weaponized’ in opposition to ‘the best of all presidents.’” Will Christopher Steele please decide up the white courtesy cellphone? Extra: “Biden and his allies should lead with attention-grabbing plans to make well being care a proper, elevate wages, assure abortion rights, lower schooling prices, and save the planet—and to tax the wealthy to pay for a strengthened social security internet. Sadly, that’s not the president’s pure inclination. So he wants a push. The excellent news is that the State Democratic Occasion Progressives Community and a coalition of teams comparable to Progressive Democrats of America have begun organizing to elect progressive delegates and to jot down a visionary platform for the 2024 Democratic Nationwide Conference.” • Oh, come on.

* * *

“DeSantis debate memo urges him to ‘hammer’ Ramaswamy and defend Trump” [Axios]. “[The memo] was posted to the web site of Axiom Methods, which works for the DeSantis-aligned By no means Again Down tremendous PAC, “[It] lists 4 ‘overarching targets’ for DeSantis through the debate. • Assault President Biden and the media • ‘Hammer’ Vivek Ramaswamy, with ‘Faux Vivek’ recommended as a nickname • Share his personal ‘constructive imaginative and prescient’ • Defend former President Trump.” • Hilariously, tremendous PACs aren’t allowed to co-ordinate with campaigns, so it seems to be like Axiom leaked the memo as an alternative. I agree Ramaswamy is an issue for DeSantis, however imitate Trump by inventing an insulting nickname? Voters need the actual Trump, not an imitation. Anyhow, if DeSantis needs to go the “Faux Vivek” route, he’d higher placed on his elevator sneakers, as a result of in any other case he’ll look dumb.

* * *

Asking for my vote:

Elevating the minimal wage, ramping down fossil gasoline extraction, defeating the Taliban, offering common healthcare, attaining prison justice for Black and Brown Individuals, offering Individuals with clear water, ending poverty, offering a a world class schooling for each… https://t.co/xZIrswFsX0

— Marianne Williamson (@marwilliamson) August 17, 2023

And my 600 bucks.

“Hawaii’s Damaged Coronary heart” [Marianne Williamson, Transform]. “Hawaii is floor zero for a type of financial imperialism. Hawaii didn’t come begging to turn into a state within the Union; she was made a US protectorate through a coup staged in opposition to her. What number of Individuals have sought refuge and therapeutic within the enchanted land of Hawaii, solely later to find the historic shadows that lay beneath. Hawaii is a deeply sacred land – some say it’s the guts heart of the planet – and her coronary heart has been wounded by the soulless financial overreach of everybody from Dole to Monsanto. As we speak, after the biggest wildfire recorded within the U.S. within the final 100 years utterly destroyed the city of Lahaina on the Western shores of Maui, photographs had been fired from the bow of the brand new colonialism – over gentrification. Actual property builders swooped in exactly 24 hours after the fireplace to supply individuals who have misplaced all the pieces – who’re being given a mere $700 stipend per household plus help with filling out FEMA varieties (from Katrina to East Palestine and now to Lahaina, it’s clear our emergency catastrophe response techniques are themselves a catastrophe) – to supply them sufficient to outlive within the brief time period, however most likely too little to ever return to the place they lived earlier than.”

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, plainly individuals are truly studying the back-dated submit! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are numerous updates. So I should try this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Occasion (“the Democrat Occasion is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated submit, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “reside” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Occasion is, the truth is, a tough drawback. I do assume the paragraph that follows is on level all the way in which again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Occasion is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Occasion didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working components of the Occasion reinforce one another. Go away apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Occasion (ka-ching, however not totally) these components comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence group.

Word, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is restricted by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

“An Insurance coverage Coverage for Democrats” [Ruy Teixeira, The Liberal Patriot]. “States of Change simulations present that, all else equal, a robust white working class surge in 2024 would ship the election to the GOP. Even a small one may probably do the trick. In an all-else-equal context, I estimate only a one-point improve in Republican help among the many white working class and a concomitant one-point lower in Democratic help (for a 2-point margin swing) would ship Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin (and the election) to the Republicans. Make it a 2-point improve in GOP help and you may throw in Pennsylvania too. So an insurance coverage coverage to forestall such a swing is so as. The issue: these are very sad voters.” Says the guide whose observe did greater than every other to allow Democrats to desert them. Be that as it could, Teixeria is a professional: “Once you have a look at the precise inhabitants of voters and the way racial resentment was distributed in 2016, as Grimmer and Marble did, it seems that the racial resentment rationalization merely doesn’t match what actually occurred when it comes to voter shifts. A rigorous accounting of vote shifts towards Trump exhibits as an alternative that they had been primarily amongst whites, particularly low schooling whites, with reasonable views on race and immigration, not whites with excessive ranges of racial resentment. The truth is, Trump truly netted fewer votes amongst whites with excessive ranges of racial resentment than Mitt Romney did in 2012… A lot for the racial resentment rationalization of Trump’s victory. Not solely is racial resentment a misnamed variable that doesn’t imply what folks assume it means, it actually can’t account for the precise shifts that occurred within the 2016 election…. Such understanding was nowhere to be discovered, nevertheless, in Democratic ranks. The racism-and-xenophobia interpretation rapidly turned dominant, partly as a result of it was in some ways merely a continuation of the strategy Clinton had taken throughout her marketing campaign and that the majority Democrats accepted. Certainly, it turned so dominant that merely to query the interpretation reliably opened the questioner to accusations that she or he didn’t take the issue of racism significantly sufficient. We’re nonetheless dwelling in that world…. Democrats desperately want that insurance coverage coverage for 2024 and eliminating these attitudes towards 40 % of the voters (rather more in key states!) ought to be a part of it. Consider it as a down fee on the ‘de-Brahminization‘ of the Democratic Occasion.” • I feel the Democrats are about as more likely to take this well-meant recommendation as MSNBC is probably going to provide Thomas Frank his personal present.

“Circulation of former Cuomo aide’s deposition units off firestorm” [Syracuse.com (Bob)]. ” Aides to former Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo have been circulating a transcript of a deposition final month of Ana Liss-Jackson, who was one among 11 ladies listed in a searing 2021 state legal professional common’s report that accused the previous governor of partaking in a sample of sexual harassment and inappropriate office conduct…. Liss-Jackson famous that she had by no means accused Cuomo of sexual harassment however that she later believed his conduct, which included calling her ‘sweetheart,’ kissing her hand, touching her again and asking about her boyfriend, had been improper. ‘I don’t imagine that the governor, to be clear, sexually harassed me,’ Liss-Jackson stated final month. ‘It was on the heels of the ‘MeToo’ motion and there was a cultural shift round what was, and was not — what’s and what’s not — applicable conduct within the office.’ Liss-Jackson stated her intention in chatting with reporters two years in the past was to assist buttress the extra critical allegations being leveled in opposition to Cuomo by different ladies. However she additionally implied that the way in which her story was reported within the Wall Avenue Journal and Gothamist had not been what she hoped to convey. She didn’t say these tales had been inaccurate, solely that they ‘didn’t totally, precisely characterize what I used to be making an attempt to get throughout’ and that in some information experiences her feedback had been ‘taken out of context.’” • Sure, what introduced Cuomo down was #MeToo — bear in mind them? — and never slaughtering hundreds of elders in nursing houses. It’s a humorous outdated world.

“Sen. Dianne Feinstein claims ‘monetary elder abuse’ in lawsuit over husband’s property” [NBC]. “Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., is suing the trustees of a fund arrange by her late husband, accusing them of committing ‘monetary elder abuse’ by refusing to pay the tens of millions of {dollars} she’s due. The swimsuit was filed in San Francisco Superior Court docket final week by Feinstein’s daughter, Katherine Feinstein, who was given ‘a restricted sturdy energy of legal professional’ over her mom’s affairs in July.

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Contained in the marketing campaign to cancel intercourse ed” [Popular Information] • Is there proof that we’re any higher at educating intercourse than we’re at educating math, science, and studying and writing?

#COVID19

“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the deal with given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater experiences); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3). 

Keep protected on the market!

Search for the Helpers

“UConn Street Journey to EPA Launches DIY Air Filter Excessive-Tech Biochamber Testing” [UConn Today (TPH)]. “The nationwide motion urging the usage of the cheap, build-it-yourself “”Corsi-Rosenthal”” field air purifiers to simply take away unhealthy air particles from indoor group settings like lecture rooms and houses has been rising from the College of Connecticut to throughout the nation – and now all the way in which to the U.S. Environmental Safety Company’s (EPA)  Homeland Safety Division Laboratory for high-tech, superior biochamber analysis testing of this machine…. UConn is bringing for testing a Corsi-Rosenthal field air filter constructed particularly for the EPA evaluation by a category of fifth graders at Commodore MacDonough STEM Academy in Middletown. It was adorned in June with Satisfaction rainbows and the varsity’s owl mascot. One of many fifth graders, Eniola Shokunbi, who needs to be the primary feminine African American president of america when she grows up, wrote and mailed Creed a letter inviting UConn to her public faculty, which was constructed nearly a century in the past. The scholar needed to have UConn’s assist to construct these air filters to enhance her faculty’s indoor air high quality, scale back her fellow college students’ danger of sickness, and likewise run her personal science experiment testing the effectiveness of the units throughout lecture rooms by monitoring sick absences. My class and I had been amazed by your invention, and we needed to see if we may attempt to make one ourselves,’ wrote the nine-year-old in her letter. ‘My faculty was inbuilt 1925, and it may use some enchancment. Your invention may assist us with that. Would you be prepared to share the plans of the Corsi-Rosenthal?’” • Hmmm…. 

Maskstravaganza

Fantastically accomplished:

I lastly bought round to portray my daughter’s masks. She LOVES it!
✨🪐🌙

The stickers are decoupaged on. It may positively look cleaner, however I did my finest, rattling it! pic.twitter.com/vWA7bh6jV0

— Annie Gustin (@oldfshndanne) August 16, 2023

Censorship and Propaganda

“No, you don’t have the ‘August flu.’ It’s most likely COVID” [Insider]. “Monitoring wastewater offers researchers a reasonably good thought of whether or not COVID-19 or the flu is circulating in a group. Proper now, the coronavirus remains to be being detected throughout almost all the testing websites in america sampled by Sanford and Emory College-backed initiative WastewaterSCAN. Samples of the virus have been step by step on the rise for the reason that starting of the summer season, probably due to the brand new ‘Eris’ coronavirus variant. Information from the Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention (CDC) additionally exhibits that hospitalizations from COVID-19 are up 12.5% up to now week, and deaths are up 10%. Alternatively, the flu has been nearly nonexistent throughout testing websites for the reason that starting of June.”

“The psychology behind folks performing like all the pieces is regular once more” [Health Solutions Group Australia]. “With the easing of COVID-19 restrictions, have you ever seen folks performing like all the pieces has gone utterly again to ‘regular’? Or do you your self get the sensation that COVID-19 is over? Regardless of understanding that it’s positively removed from over, many people have began to behave like there is no such thing as a longer a menace. Strolling down the road now, you would possibly see far more folks than earlier than and lots of of them not social distancing. Everyone knows the pandemic isn’t over, so why will we act and really feel this fashion? One a part of the reply to this could possibly be that we’re experiencing what psychologists discuss with as ‘groupthink’. To place it merely, groupthink is the place we find yourself performing like others with out actually desirous about whether or not we agree with what they’re doing or considering. We do that as a result of we need to ‘slot in’ with the bulk and we have a look at how others are behaving for clues on how we should always behave. Analysis has proven that it’s fairly highly effective stuff.  One well-known collection of research in psychology generally known as the Asch conformity experiments, put an individual in a room with seven different folks (who had been all a part of the research). The particular person being examined thought that they had been all there to finish a imaginative and prescient take a look at, however actually it was to see if that one particular person would change their solutions primarily based on what the group stated. They had been proven a line after which proven 3 different comparability strains they usually needed to decide which one matched the size of the primary and say it out loud. The factor is, even when it was completely apparent that the remainder of the group had been flawed, about 75% of individuals nonetheless gave the flawed reply not less than as soon as, simply because it’s what everybody else was saying.” • I feel “groupthink” is easier than doable (what’s a “group?”). However “Asch conformity experiments” is one thing to file away.

Science Is Popping

“Shock COVID discovery helps clarify how coronaviruses bounce species” [Phys.org]. “Surprising new insights into how COVID-19 infects cells might assist clarify why coronaviruses are so good at leaping from species to species and can assist scientists higher predict how COVID-19 will evolve. All through the pandemic, there was a lot dialogue of how COVID-19 infiltrates cells by hijacking a protein known as ACE2 discovered on human cells. However the brand new analysis from the Faculty of Medication reveals that ACE2 isn’t required for an infection. As a substitute, the virus has different means it could actually use to contaminate cells…. ‘The virus that causes COVID-19 makes use of ACE2 because the entrance door to contaminate cells, however we’ve discovered that if the entrance door is blocked, it could actually additionally use the again door or the home windows,’ stated researcher Peter Kasson, MD, Ph.D., of UVA’s Departments of Molecular Physiology and Biomedical Engineering. ‘This implies the virus can maintain spreading because it infects a brand new species till it adapts to make use of a selected species’ entrance door. So we’ve to be careful for brand new viruses doing the identical factor to contaminate us.’…. 

“One thing Terrible”

Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” is perhaps a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. A lot of exceptionally nasty sequelae, more than likely deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we’d add mind harm, together with character modifications therefrom.

* * *

Case Information

From BioBot wastewater knowledge, August 17:

Lambert right here: Completely happy reminiscences of tape-watching days! Closing in on a Trump-era surge stage; Biden’s, after all, are larger. Will probably be attention-grabbing to see what occurs when faculties open up. I want to congratulate the Biden administration and the general public well being institution, the CDC particularly, for this huge and unprecedented achievement. And a tip of the ol’ Water Cooler hat to the Nice Barrington goons, whose insurance policies have been adopted so assiduously! A curious truth: All of Biden’s peaks are larger than Trump’s peaks. Exhibits you what public well being can do when it’s firing on all eight cylinders! Musical interlude. NOTE I’m not joyful that Biobot can’t replace this knowledge extra ceaselessly. 

Regional knowledge:

Backward revisions. Apparently, the upswing begins earlier than July 4, which neither accelerates nor retards it.

Regional variant knowledge, August 19:

EG.5 (the orange pie slice) nonetheless appears evenly distributed. Sadly, the Midwest knowledge isn’t out there, so we will’t infer something in regards to the Midwest surge and any variant(s), by hook or by crook. 

Variants

From CDC, August 19:

Lambert right here: Prime of the leaderboard: EG.5 (“Eris“). I’m not highlighting the BA.2’s as a result of the interactive model exhibits that these BA.2’s been hanging round at a low stage for months.

From CDC, August 5:

Lambert right here: Unsure what to make of this. I’m used to seeing a brand new variant take down the beforehand dominant variant. Right here it seems to be like we’ve a “tag group,” all working collectively to chop XBB.1.5 right down to dimension. I positive hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to services lower by directors of ailing intent).

CDC: “As of Could 11, genomic surveillance knowledge will likely be reported biweekly, primarily based on the provision of constructive take a look at specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice every week; semiweekly.” Seems like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

Covid Emergency Room Visits

NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, August 12:

Lambert right here: Improve is much more distinct. (The black line is “mixed”, however it’s simple to see that Covid, the crimson line, is driving all the pieces.)

NOTE “Charts and knowledge offered by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous yr, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not your complete pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “identical to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is suitable for each_{MR SUBLIMINAL I hate these folks a lot}. Discover additionally that this chart exhibits, not less than for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, despite the fact that CDC is making an attempt to get us to imagine that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the present institutional equipment for injections.

Hospitalization

I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading. Nonetheless, right here’s bellwether New York Metropolis, August 17:

May very well be worse, and likely will likely be. However how a lot worse?

Positivity

NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, August 14:

-0.7%. A pause right here, too? Apparently, individuals are citing to this, too, in addition to Biobot. Vertical-ish, although absolutely the numbers are nonetheless very small relative to June 2022, say. Apparently, these don’t correlate with the regional figures for wastewater. (It will be attention-grabbing to survey this inhabitants usually; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and massive peer strain, went and bought examined anyhow.)

From CDC, July 31:

Lambert right here: That is the CDC’s “Traveler-Based mostly Genomic Surveillance” knowledge.

Deaths

NOT UPDATED Iowa COVID-19 Tracker, August 9:

Lambert right here: The WHO knowledge is nugatory, so I changed it with the Iowa Covid Information Tracker. Their methodology: “These knowledge have been sourced, through the API from the CDC: https://knowledge.cdc.gov/NCHS/Situations-Contributing-to-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Stat/hk9y-quqm. This visualization updates on Wednesday evenings. Information are provisional and are adjusted weekly by the CDC.” I can’t appear to get a pop-up that exhibits a complete of the three causes (prime proper). Readers?

Complete: 1,172,433 – 1,172,148 = 285 (285 * 365 = 104,025 deaths per yr, at the moment’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “dwelling with” Covid (fairly a bit larger than the minimizers would really like, although they’ll speak themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I may must resolve that is what the powers-that-be contemplate “mission achieved” for this explicit tranche of dying and illness). 

Extra Deaths

The Economist, August 18:

Lambert right here:  Again to nearly dailiy. Odd when it’s, odd when it stops. Based mostly on a machine-learning mannequin. (The CDC has an extra estimate too, however because it ran eternally with a large typo within the Legend, I figured no one was actually taking a look at it, so I bought rid it. )

Stats Watch

There aren’t any official statistics of curiosity at the moment.

Tech: Enshittification: It’s the circle of life!

Streaming is Stage 3 enshittification. Doctorow:

Right here is how platforms die: first, they’re good to their customers; then they abuse their customers to make issues higher for his or her enterprise prospects; lastly, they abuse these enterprise prospects to claw again all the worth for themselves. Then, they die.

As we speak’s Concern & Greed Index: 44 Concern (earlier shut: 56 Impartial) [CNN]. One week in the past: 62 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Aug 18 at 1:50 PM ET. Mr. Market is beginning to chew his fingers.

The Gallery

Jogs my memory of woods within the Midwest in the summertime:

And into the woods:

The 420

“Marijuana and hallucinogen use, binge ingesting hit historic highs” [The Hill]. “Practically half of adults ages 19 to 30 reported past-year utilization of marijuana, at 44 % — additionally the very best stage ever reported, up from 35 % in 2017 and 28 % in 2012. That very same age group reported record-high day by day marijuana utilization — 11 % in 2022, up from 8 % in 2017 and 6 % in 2012. Hallucinogen use amongst adults ages 35-50 reached traditionally excessive ranges, with 4 % reporting past-year use in 2022, up from 2 % in 2021 and no higher than 1 % 5 or 10 years prior. Amongst adults ages 19-30, 8 % reported past-year utilization, up from 5 and 10 years prior. General alcohol use tendencies have been step by step rising for adults ages 35-50, however binge ingesting reached its highest reported ranges at 29 % in 2022, up from 26 % in 2021, 25 % in 2017 and 23 % in 2012. Previous-year ingesting elevated barely over the previous 10 years, from 83 % in 2012 to 85 % in 2022.” • “That’s lots,” as Dima would say.

Information of the Wired

“The traditional know-how conserving house missions alive” [BBC]. “Launched nearly 46 years in the past in 1977, the dual Voyager probes proceed to ship again knowledge from past the Photo voltaic System. I checked with Nasa, which has assured me that the spacecraft are nonetheless being managed from the identical beige cubicle in an annex of its Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) that I visited in 2017, marked with a do-it-yourself cardboard signal studying: ‘Mission essential {hardware} – PLEASE DO NOT TOUCH’.” • Not all heroes put on capes.

Contact data for vegetation: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a examine if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photos of vegetation. Greens are tremendous! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you would like your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it firstly of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From Upstater:

Upstater writes: “In 2019, we visited the New York State / USDA / Cornell College Agricultural experimental station’s annual open home in Geneva NY. It has the biggest assortment of chilly local weather grapes within the US. Some are desk grapes (e.g. Harmony), some hardier Vinifera sorts and hybrids.”

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Right here is the display screen that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

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