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The recent wave of populism in Slovakia and its potential influence on EU-Nato relations has raised considerations amongst European international locations — and the outcomes of Saturday’s parliamentary elections with the victory of the populist Smer-SD celebration led by former prime minister Robert Fico have drawn consideration to his historical past of expressing anti-American sentiments and pro-Russian rhetoric.
It is usually important to contemplate the election implications prolong past geopolitics — and have an effect on insurance policies within the ongoing struggle towards inner corruption.
The result of the 150-seat parliament election is essential in figuring out whether or not the nation will keep an alignment with EU values or drift nearer to Russia. With Fico, Ukraine will possible lose one in every of its shut allies.
Situation 1: Slovakia as Putin ally
Fico has made home political features by benefiting from frustration in the direction of the outgoing governing coalition. Throughout this marketing campaign, he did the identical however with an added anti-West narrative. His platform was primarily based on conspiracy theories, combined with pro-Russian and anti-American rhetoric that echoed Kremlin propaganda.
Primarily based on Sunday’s (1 October) outcomes, Smer-SD emerged because the main celebration, with 22.94 % of the vote. Fico’s views resonate with that section of Slovaks who maintain sympathetic emotions to Russia, which have solely grown stronger by means of social media platforms for the reason that onset of the battle in Ukraine.
Fico has promised to halt help to Ukraine if he regains energy. He blamed “Ukrainian Nazis” all through the marketing campaign for initiating the battle.
However these stances may doubtlessly create disagreements with allies within the EU and Nato who’ve been supporters of Ukraine. Fico acknowledged that his future authorities wouldn’t proceed sending assist.
And whereas most Slovak political events help offering weapons, opinion polls counsel that almost all residents oppose such navy help. “Observe how attitudes in the direction of Ukrainian president [Volodmyr] Zelensky are altering as he begins to bore the world,” commented Fico not too long ago.
Situation 2: Slovakia as Orban’s ally
The election consequence may additionally reinforce Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban’s EU place, and undermine unity throughout the bloc towards Russia’s invasion.
Incessantly, Fico and one in every of his potential coalition companions, Andrej Danko, chief of the Slovak nationalist celebration, admired Orban’s ‘intolerant democracy’ national-conservative governing fashion, and infrequently unilateral opposition to Brussels’ ‘dictates’.
Underneath Fico’s management, Slovakia would possibly subsequently be a part of Hungary in opposing EU sanctions on Russia, which may weaken the EU’s stance.
Maybe the worst-case situation, taking Slovakia out of the democratic orbit, won’t go. Nonetheless, there’s a excessive chance that Fico’s management will change the geopolitical dynamic inside Europe, growing the present ‘east vs west’ pressure amongst member states, and add heft to these international locations for a extra important and energetic nation state.
Taking a look at his marketing campaign narratives, slogans and messages, there’s a concern that Fico may undermine the EU establishments and checks on energy by following the identical aggressive strategy as Hungary’s Orban.
If Fico and Orban do be a part of their intolerant forces, it could have the potential to problem the values of the European Union. However then again, it may additionally result in divisions throughout the central and east European area.
And there’s even a stable potential to strengthen Orban’s overriding idea of “a substitute for liberal democracy,” casting these autocrats as defenders of a supposed Christian homeland towards migrants, the so-called ‘homosexual agenda’, and radical liberal experiments.
Fico has the potential to shift Slovakia from the West and jeopardise the unity of Europe in its stance towards Russia’s incursion into Ukraine. His victory may even have the potential for a domino impact within the central European area and empower different European far-right and populist actions.
Situation 3: Present me the cash?
But the dependency of Slovakia on the European Union may doubtlessly cease any wild, apocalyptic eventualities about future democratic backlashing.
Fico has promised extra social spending.
However after the Covid pandemic and financial disaster, he has few choices, and these guarantees are solely potential with EU cash. He is aware of it, so he’ll possible attempt to modify his place and keep good relations with the Brussels establishments.
Situation 4: Tamed by residents and media?
Whereas Fico’s future authorities creates genuine considerations, his potential to undermine Slovak democracy thankfully faces limitations.
His previous spell as prime minister confirmed his tendency to assault journalists, however the Slovak media has turn into extra resilient previously years and will not be straightforward to intimidate.
Slovakia additionally has a vibrant and engaged civic tradition and well-established civic organisations and grassroots actions with the potential to mobilise residents.
The third issue that may make it difficult is the Slovak enterprise sector, which is closely pro-EU, and never only for financial causes.
Whereas the election consequence poses dangers, Slovakia’s pro-democratic establishments and the engaged public have confirmed capable of oppose extremism previously.
Thus, Fico faces extra vital home checks than Orban in Hungary. And lastly, as historian Timothy Snyder factors out, Slovakia is present process a generational political shift.
Youthful Slovaks largely deserted previous political events and backed the brand new, fashionable, liberal, political drive — Progressive Slovakia. That vitality alone provides hope for Slovakia’s democratic future.
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