Israel, Hamas at crucial juncture in negotiations for hostage deal – POLITICO

TEL AVIV — Israeli officers have gotten guardedly optimistic {that a} hostage cope with Hamas may be reached, however any settlement is prone to be interim and restricted.

A deal is prone to contain only a few dozen captive Israeli youngsters and aged, amongst them some twin nationals, together with Individuals, in response to two Israeli officers, who have been granted anonymity to debate the delicate matter of hostages.

The formalizing of humanitarian pauses in northern Gaza has helped progress the talks by way of the Qataris and Egyptians, the 2 officers acknowledged. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this week agreed to place in place four-hour day by day humanitarian pauses in its bombings in Gaza after nearly two weeks of strain from the Biden administration.

However the two officers cautioned that there are nonetheless a number of excellent points that might simply derail a deal, together with the Hamas militants withholding an entire listing of the hostages being held within the Gaza Strip. The Hamas army management can be demanding a cease-fire, or an extended humanitarian pause of as a lot as per week, the Israeli officers mentioned.

David Meidan, a former Mossad intelligence officer, who served for a time as Benjamin Netanyahu’s coordinator on hostage points, believes that “one thing is shifting below the floor” concerning the hostages. The humanitarian pauses that Netanyahu has agreed to “may result in some constructive steps,” Meidan mentioned in an unique interview with POLITICO.

Greater than a decade in the past, Meidan negotiated the deal to safe the discharge of Gilad Shalit, a younger Israeli soldier captured by Hamas in 2006, in change for 1,027 Palestinian prisoners. Meidan, who has been counseling the households of the Israeli hostages, has been consulted by U.S. diplomats and Netanyahu’s newly appointed hostage envoy, Gal Hirsch.

Meidan suggested Hirsch and the Individuals to not waste time juggling totally different channels of communication and to focus their efforts on figuring out mediators capable of attain the important thing decision-makers — specifically the Hamas army leaders in Gaza. He mentioned he advised them that “the political leaders outdoors Gaza in Qatar usually are not so related.” They will serve simply as go-betweens for messages to the Hamas army leaders, Meidan defined.

The important thing gamers

“Once I led negotiations 12 years in the past, I didn’t perceive at first precisely who the important thing gamers have been. Lastly, I understood that the important thing particular person on the time was Ahmed Jabari,” Meidan mentioned.

Jabari in 2006 was commander of the army wing of Hamas, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades. He was killed subsequently in 2012 in a focused Israeli airstrike. Now Meidan says Yehya Sinwar, Hamas’ chief within the Gaza Strip and one of many founders of the group’s army wing, is the important thing participant — together with Mohammed Deif, who deliberate the October 7 terror assault on southern Israel, and Marwan Issa, who’s the deputy chief of Hamas’ army wing. “It’s these three,” he mentioned.

“The Individuals are deeply concerned. I’ve the impression that on the American aspect there’s a really excessive degree of engagement and it’s coming straight from the highest,” Meidan mentioned. However the American position can solely be restricted, and Washington shouldn’t be greatest positioned to be a negotiator. “What it might probably do is strain the Egyptians and Qataris and instill a way of urgency,” he says. Final week, Mossad chief David Barnea and CIA Director William Burns have been in Qatar to debate methods to win the discharge of the hostages in Gaza with the Qatari prime minister, in response to media reviews.

Meidan mentioned the negotiations this time spherical will probably be harder than what he encountered a dozen years in the past. First, he was bartering for only one soldier, not for round 240 captives, principally civilian; and he wasn’t negotiating in opposition to the backdrop of an all-out struggle.

And although he couldn’t sit reverse Jabari due to Israeli legal guidelines, he and the Hamas chief have been in adjoining rooms in Cairo throughout the remaining phases with the Egyptians ferrying messages forwards and backwards as they bargained. Meidan knew a deal was close to when Jabari began to simply accept that it will be inconceivable for Israel to launch a few of the Palestinians that Hamas wished freed. “That was once I knew he was turning pragmatic,” he mentioned.

‘Extra advanced’

Egyptian generals have been essential in pulling off the Shalit deal, in response to Meidan. He thinks they are going to be key once more — together with one basic who led the Egyptian staff in 2006.

“Now it’s much more advanced,” Meidan mentioned. Nobody is in adjoining rooms, and it’s far more laborious and time-consuming.

“What you’ve now could be the Israelis and the Individuals speaking with the Qataris, who’re then passing messages to the Hamas political leaders in Doha, who then talk with Gaza. And you’ve got Egyptians speaking with Hamas leaders in Gaza. The Israelis draft proposals and the Individuals tweak them. The Qataris and the Egyptians make options. The ultimate model is shipped to Gaza by way of the Hamas leaders in Doha,” he added.

Hamas has alternative ways of speaking between the political and army leaders, together with utilizing cell telephones, that are simply monitored. “Every spherical of bargaining takes two to 3 days” slowing the method and drawing out the bargaining, says Meidan. “It takes a variety of time however, alas, time is of the essence,” he mentioned.

Meidan had wished Israel to prioritize hostage negotiations a lot sooner — and earlier than Israel began to pummel Gaza and launch army floor operations. 

“Now we’re in a unique state of affairs,” he mentioned. He faults Netanyahu for dragging his toes. “I listened rigorously to the statements of the Hamas leaders, and I received the impression they have been greatly surprised on the worldwide outrage after the horrible October 7 assault and have been making an attempt to argue that the worst of what occurred wasn’t carried out by their fighters,” Meidan mentioned.

Meidan mentioned the easiest way to engineer a deal now could be to make use of the humanitarian pauses to push a humanitarian line on Hamas and argue they need to reciprocate by releasing captive infants, youngsters, the aged and the infirm. “However it is extremely tough,” he mentioned.

‘Rollercoaster of feelings’

The households of the hostages are getting ever extra impatient and determined, he mentioned. Most are holding off calling for a cease-fire, leaving it to the federal government to find out the perfect methods of getting their family members again, Meidan mentioned. Most are arguing that Netanyahu ought to launch all and any Palestinians held in Israeli jails that Hamas desires freed.

However that might change quickly. “They’re going by way of a rollercoaster of feelings and may say various things from day after day — you need to keep in mind there are a lot of family members concerned they usually don’t all agree,” Meidan mentioned. However with every passing day, extra are saying to me that there must be a cease-fire to avoid wasting as many hostages as potential,” he mentioned.

If the hostage households as a bunch start to name for a cease-fire, it might shift home Israeli politics dramatically, presenting Netanyahu with a doubtlessly explosive political second, say opposition politicians. The struggle goals to wreck Hamas’ army capabilities, defang the group to stop any repetition of October 7 has huge public backing, but when Israel is confronted with a stark alternative of selecting between the hostages and the army marketing campaign, then Israelis will prioritize getting the captives launched, say some opposition politicians.

“Principally, when you ask me, the hostages have to come back first, we should always get them house,” Yair Lapid of the centrist Yesh Atid celebration and chief of the opposition, advised POLITICO. Though he mentioned he thought in sensible phrases Israel received’t be confronted with such a black-and-white dilemma. However whether it is, “we could have our probability to kill whoever we have to kill afterwards. If we’re confronted with a alternative, then we should go along with the hostages as a result of that’s the fundamental contract the nation has with the households,” he added.

Former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert agrees that there doesn’t should be a clear-cut alternative. “I’m not positive it can come to an either-or. I don’t assume that if Israel stops now, then we’ll get the hostages. And I don’t assume that if we don’t cease, we are going to lose the hostages,” he mentioned.

“Once we negotiated the discharge of Gilad Shalit, we have been nonetheless confronting Hamas and killing terrorists they usually by no means harmed him as a result of they understood he was an asset and a bargaining chip which they didn’t wish to lose. They shield the property,” he mentioned. However he and different politicians acknowledge say that if the households of the hostages name en masse for a cease-fire, it can roil Israel’s home politics.