2:00PM Water Cooler 11/30/2023 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Wastewater stans, there’s an in depth evaluation of CDC’s new NWSS web site within the Covid Instances part, beneath the Biobot charts. Take pleasure in! –lambert

Chicken Tune of the Day

Northern Screamer, Sucre, Colombia. Heaps happening!

Politics

“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in actual fact a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Biden Administration

“Bombenomics: Biden admin circulates map exhibiting states that profit from Ukraine assist” [Politico]. “Battleground states Pennsylvania and Arizona are reaping billions of {dollars} from Washington’s efforts to arm Ukraine, based on a graphic the Biden administration has circulated on Capitol Hill…. POLITICO reported final month that the White Home was switching up its messaging after working into continued resistance on Capitol Hill, after figuring out that promoting the battle funding effort primarily based on nationwide safety wasn’t altering minds.” •

The Supremes

“The brand new SCOTUS Code of Conduct” [SCOTUSblog]. “There are issues to love concerning the Code of Conduct that the Supreme Court docket promulgated earlier this month. It’s a bona fide code of conduct—one which, in the primary, tracks the Code of Conduct for U.S. Judges. It follows the identical construction, options the identical 5 canons, and consists of many of the similar provisions which can be worded in the identical means…. And it’s not truthful to sentence the brand new code as toothless as a result of it consists of no enforcement mechanism. That mentioned, there are some problematic variations between the brand new SCOTUS Code and the Code of Conduct for U.S. Judges…. The brand new code doesn’t impose an obligation to ‘be trustworthy to…the regulation,’ as required by Canon 3(A)(1) of the Code of Conduct for U.S. Judges. It’s doable that this responsibility was thought redundant of the Canon 2(A) obligation to ‘respect and adjust to the regulation’ (which the court docket retained). The duty to respect and adjust to the regulation, nevertheless, issues the responsibility to abide by the regulation in a decide’s day by day life, whereas the responsibility to be trustworthy to the regulation issues an obligation to uphold and apply the regulation when deciding circumstances. For justices beneath elevated hearth for ideological, partisan-seeming decision-making, the optics of the court docket exempting itself from an obligation to uphold and apply the regulation is unlucky….. The brand new SCOTUS Code qualifies the statutory responsibility to disqualify when a justice’s ‘impartiality would possibly fairly be questioned’ by including language deciphering it to imply that ‘an unbiased and cheap one who is conscious of all related circumstances would doubt that the Justice may pretty discharge his or her duties.’ Whereas according to interpretive precedent, this clause is cherry-picked to omit steerage that the ‘cheap particular person’ shouldn’t be a decide however an out of doors observer, who’s much less inclined than a decide to credit score the decide’s impartiality. ”

2024

Lower than a 12 months to go!

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“Appeals court docket reinstates gag order that barred Trump from maligning court docket employees in N.Y. fraud trial” [Boston Globe]. “A New York appeals court docket Thursday reinstated a gag order that barred Donald Trump from commenting about court docket personnel after he frequently disparaged a regulation clerk in his New York civil fraud trial. The one-sentence choice from a four-judge panel got here two weeks after a person appellate decide had put the order on maintain whereas the appeals course of performed out. Trial decide Arthur Engoron, who imposed the gag order, mentioned he now deliberate to implement it ‘rigorously and vigorously.’” • I don’t know in case you’ve learn Frank Herbert’s great The Dosadi Experiment, the place the authorized system constructed by the frog folks, the Gowachin, permits anybody in “the Courtarena” to be killed, together with judges, attorneys, and, after all, clerks. Trump appears to suppose he’s on the planet of the frog folks, not planet Earth. Depart the employees alone, ffs. They shouldn’t be gamers!

“Choose and clerk in Trump civil fraud trial have acquired lots of of ‘critical and credible’ threats” [CNN]. “Since October 3, when Trump posted on social media a baseless allegation about Choose Arthur Engoron’s regulation clerk, threats in opposition to the decide ‘elevated exponentially’ and had been additionally directed to his clerk, based on Charles Hollon, a court docket officer-captain in New York assigned to the Judicial Threats Evaluation unit of the Division of Public Security, who signed a sworn assertion. Hollon mentioned the threats in opposition to the decide and his clerk are ‘thought-about to be critical and credible and never hypothetical or speculative.’”

“Bid to carry Trump accountable for Jan. 6 violence stalls at appeals court docket” [Politico]. “A federal appeals court docket mulling Donald Trump’s authorized legal responsibility for Jan. 6 violence is approaching a conspicuous anniversary of inaction. Almost a 12 months in the past, the court docket thought-about three lawsuits introduced by Capitol Law enforcement officials and members of Congress accusing Trump and his allies of inciting the assault that threatened their lives and the federal government they had been sworn to guard. However their efforts to carry Trump accountable have languished. The D.C. Circuit Court docket of Appeals usually decides circumstances inside 4 months of oral arguments, however the trio of Trump lawsuits has been sitting on the court docket’s docket with no ruling since they had been argued final December.”

“Genius or Suicide” [Judith Butler, London Review of Books (Acacia)]. From 2019, nonetheless germane. “I’ve supplied not more than a dream sequence of my very own. It could be that disgrace and guilt has suffused all he has ever felt. The jury is out. My wager/dream is that he would reasonably die than pause to really feel the disgrace that passes by him and is externalised as destruction and rage. If he ever registers disgrace, it could be solely in that briefest second simply because it turns outwards, to be expelled into the world round him. It might by no means correctly be lived as his personal, as a result of his psychic construction is constructed to dam it – a huge process. If in the long run disgrace ever turns again on him, it could – based on the foundations of his psychic playbook – be a suicidal submission. Anticipate then a really lengthy and loud howl, as he launches a climactic accusation in opposition to the entire world. Allow us to hope that by then he has been disadvantaged of his entry to army energy.” • Wild stuff, particularly contemplating that Trump began zero (0) wars, and Biden began not less than one (1).

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“Can the Anti-Trump Coalition Maintain?” [The Bulwark]. “Lots can change in a 12 months however the citizens is shifting, and the anti-MAGA coalition is splintering. Trump leads Biden in nationwide polling and swing state polling. Biden’s general approval hovers round 39 p.c, nowhere close to what’s required for an incumbent to win a second time period, and the numbers on his administration of the financial system—the primary problem—are worse… So who’re the voters being newly persuaded by Trump? These potential new swing voters are usually not MAGA, they aren’t pumped for the discharge of the J6 tapes, and so they don’t give a passing thought to the outrages of Hunter Biden. They’re nonwhite, younger, and unbiased, and so they belief Trump extra on the financial system, international coverage, and immigration. Whereas a second time period of Trump will destroy democracy and probably destabilize your complete world, these Individuals both don’t know that, don’t consider it, or don’t care.” In phrase: Deplorables. Extra: “[T]hus far, it doesn’t seem the necessity to shield democracy is protecting collectively the voting bloc Biden wants to dam Trump. Pollster Stanley Greenberg concluded the Democracy Corps Battleground Survey findings present these points gained’t carry Democrats house. ‘That may be a harmful technique when the bottom of Blacks, Hispanics, Asians, LGBTQ+ neighborhood, Gen Z, millennials, single and faculty girls give Trump greater approval rankings than Biden,’ he wrote.” • Yikes!

“Black Voters Are Drifting Away from Democrats. Will That Damage Biden in SC?” [Politico]. “Three years after Donald Trump pulled about 8 p.c of the Black vote nationally, polling this month by The New York Instances and Siena Faculty of six battleground states discovered his help had bumped as much as 22 p.c of the Black citizens if the election had been held in the present day. Different polls regarded even worse for the Democrats; a nationwide ballot by CNN registered Trump’s help amongst Black voters at 23 p.c, whereas an earlier Fox Information ballot put it at 26 p.c. These are jaw-dropping numbers for a demographic that, historically, has been the Democratic Social gathering’s most dependable voting bloc. And it’d be unhealthy sufficient for the Democratic Social gathering if the erosion of Black help was strictly about Biden or the possible Republican nominee, former President Trump. Among the many Democrats assembly right here, there was normal and disquieting settlement that Trump’s enchantment is barely a part of the explanation for the erosion of Black help. Jeremy Jones, a Democratic Social gathering official from Lexington County, mentioned some Black individuals who noticed Trump’s title on stimulus checks in 2020 inform him, ‘A minimum of he obtained one thing accomplished for the Black neighborhood.’ …. [Jay Parmley, the executive director of the state party’s] concern, shared by many Democrats, shouldn’t be a lot that Black voters will migrate to Trump in important numbers, however that, when November 2024 comes round, some would possibly merely not prove to vote. And there’s quite a lot of proof to again that concern. Turnout amongst Black voters within the midterm elections final 12 months dropped off almost 10 share factors from 2018.” • Hmm. The identical erosion was evident in 2016. Democrat being Democrats, nothing has been accomplished.

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“Staff Biden’s nice double quarter pounder ‘misinformation’ marketing campaign” [Washington Examiner]. “On Sept. 20, Politico printed an article headlined ‘Biden’s marketing campaign set to counterpunch on misinformation.’ The story reported that President Joe Biden’s 2024 reelection marketing campaign is ‘overhauling’ its technique to battle ‘misinformation’ on social media. The brand new effort consists of ‘recruiting lots of of staffers and volunteers to watch platforms.’ To oversee the work, the marketing campaign employed a former Biden White Home staffer named Rob Flaherty, who was described as a ‘bulldog’ and a ‘controversial determine’ whose ‘combative emails to social media corporations have develop into a part of a Republican-led federal court docket case and a congressional investigation.’… The federal court docket case is Missouri v. Biden, a landmark COVID-era case involving authorities censorship of social media. Discovery within the case introduced revelations that the Biden White Home and different Biden administration officers, working with outdoors activist teams, ‘held biweekly conferences with tech corporations over the way to curb the unfold of misinformation throughout the pandemic,’ with Flaherty ‘in fixed contact with social media executives,’ within the phrases of the Wall Road Journal editorial web page…. An vital truth to recollect is that Flaherty and his colleagues weren’t simply concentrating on misinformation. Most of the postings they sought to ban had been “scientifically debatable,” within the Wall Road Journal’s phrases. . And now Flaherty has a brand new position on the Biden 2024 marketing campaign.” • Flaherty obtained a promotion! That’s good. (Fascinating to think about that the efforts described in Missouri v. Biden are the PMC’s operational definition of “scientific communication.”

“Hunter Biden Artwork Purchaser Advocated for Her Grandniece’s Launch From Hamas Captivity” [RealClearInvestigations]. “The American kidnap sufferer launched by the terrorist group Hamas throughout its ongoing ceasefire with Israel is a great-niece of Elizabeth Hirsh Naftali, a serious Democratic celebration donor who paid handsomely for Hunter Biden’s artwork and gained an appointment to a plum cultural publish from President Biden…. Whereas noting that the Biden administration has labored with Qatari and Egyptian mediators to free all of the hostages, a senior administration official informed RealClearInvestigations that ‘U.S. officers insisted that Abigail be included on an early record in addition to the opposite two Individuals on this class [of women and children].’ ‘The President raised Abigail in almost all of his cellphone calls with counterparts in addition to with the Amir of Qatar on Saturday,’ the official mentioned, including that ‘U.S. officers have additionally remained in shut contact with Abigail’s members of the family together with these the President spoke with on Sunday,’ the day Abigail was returned from Gaza to Israel…. Republican Home members have been investigating doable connections between Hirsh Naftali’s artwork shopping for and her authorities appointment to the U.S. Fee for the Preservation of America’s Heritage Overseas since July. In a letter that month to Hirsh Naftali, Oversight Committee chairman James Comer of Kentucky mentioned, ‘Your place on the Fee is especially suspicious due to Hunter Biden’s earlier actions to raise his enterprise companion—Eric Schwerin—to the identical publish whereas his father was Vice President.’” • Beautiful. An affordable grift, proper in the course of a hostage negotiation. ‘Twas ever thus?

“Biden’s polling is in additional harmful territory than Obama’s in 2011” [NBC]. “There’s one huge downside with all of the discuss evaluating President Joe Biden’s standing within the 2023 polls with Barack Obama’s in 2011. Biden’s present numbers are in additional harmful territory for an incumbent than Obama’s ever had been at this similar cut-off date. For one factor, Obama held a constant lead over GOP frontrunner Mitt Romney within the polls — minus just a few exceptions instantly after the debt-ceiling disaster — till that first general-election debate…. What’s extra, our similar November 2011 ballot had Obama forward of a generic Republican, versus our November 2023 ballot exhibiting Biden trailing a generic Republican by double digits.”

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“High Ramaswamy aide leaves to affix Trump marketing campaign” [CNN]. “Brian Swensen formally resigned from his position as nationwide political director for the Ramaswamy marketing campaign over the weekend and has joined the Trump marketing campaign, a supply aware of his departure informed CNN. Swensen is anticipated to be engaged on the marketing campaign’s political operation within the early-voting states, particularly in Nevada, two Trump marketing campaign sources informed CNN. Swensen’s departure is the most recent indicator of Ramaswamy’s stagnating marketing campaign, which has struggled to achieve momentum even because the candidate intently aligns himself with Trump, the front-runner for the 2024 GOP nomination. Earlier this month, Brandon Goodyear, the Ramaswamy staff’s videographer, stepped away from the marketing campaign, a supply aware of the departure informed CNN.” • So, videographers are main indicators?

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“DeSantis to debate California Gov. Gavin Newsom tonight” [Axios]. • Can’t they each lose?

“Haley and DeSantis are relying extra on outdoors marketing campaign teams with time working out to cease Trump” [Associated Press]. “Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley are more and more outsourcing central components of their campaigns, drawing on the rising urgency of Donald Trump opponents to discover a single different to the previous president. Struggling to energise his marketing campaign, DeSantis this week privately inspired his donor community to help a newly shaped tremendous PAC that’s taking on promoting duties. That’s after a management shakeup on the pro-DeSantis tremendous PAC that for months has been dealing with the majority of each his promoting and his get-out-the-vote operation. On the similar time, Haley’s self-described ‘scrappy’ political marketing campaign, which has by no means loved the identical degree of funding or manpower as DeSantis’ operation, gained the help of the the Koch community, the biggest conservative grassroots group within the nation. By week’s finish, scores of Koch-backed activists are anticipated to start advocating on Haley’s behalf on the doorsteps of tens of hundreds of Republican major voters. The extraordinary reliance on unbiased teams for the 2 Republicans who more and more look like Trump’s closest challengers is testing the sensible and authorized limits of modern-day presidential campaigns.”

“Nikki Haley’s home-state technique faces a hitch: South Carolina is Trump nation” [NBC]. “Nikki Haley sees her house state as a launchpad. It may develop into her marketing campaign’s crash web site…. To date, she hasn’t made the sale. That’s not less than partially as a result of Haley has but to present voters a motive to desert Trump — the dominant political determine within the state for nearly a decade — a recurring theme that emerged in interviews with nearly two dozen Republican voters, present and former elected officers, county celebration chairs and Republican strategists. The identical may be mentioned for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and the remainder of a area that Trump leads by greater than 30 share factors in current polls of the state’s Feb. 24 major…. Haley is seeking to reconnect with voters who haven’t seen her on a poll since 2014. She hosted a well-attended city corridor assembly Monday in Beaufort, her first occasion within the state in nearly a month. It got here on the heels of Trump’s highly-publicized go to to Saturday’s marquee soccer recreation between the College of South Carolina and Clemson, a free media bonanza for the previous president. Despite the fact that Trump acquired a mixture of cheers and jeers, the dueling appearances served as a reminder of his means to dam out the solar — or the state’s favourite daughter — at a second’s discover. For Haley to win, she’ll need to sway a big portion of voters who discover her interesting regardless that they at present again Trump.” • I hold coming as much as stature. Love Trump or hate him, he appears constructed to a unique scale, even a gargantuan one.

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“Scoop: No Labels abandons its in-person presidential conference” [Axios]. “No Labels — the bipartisan group plotting a third-party presidential bid — is pulling the plug on its Dallas conference subsequent spring and can as an alternative conduct its ‘choice course of just about,’ Axios has discovered… No Labels’ earlier plan was to make use of the interval between Tremendous Tuesday on March 5 and the Dallas conference that had been set for April 14-15 to take heed to supporters after which make a closing choice on whether or not to launch a third-party ticket.” • In order that they’re pushing the choice off, placing them on the volatility facet of the steadiness v. volatility dichotomy.

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“West says third celebration critics have ‘good motive to be afraid’” [The Hill]. “Unbiased presidential candidate Cornel West mentioned Tuesday critics of a third-party ticket have a ‘good motive to be afraid.’ ‘I feel they’ve good motive to be afraid as a result of anyone who desires to talk the reality, when you have got a regime in energy that denies the reality, anyone who seeks justice, who runs away from justice, they must be afraid,’ West mentioned on Fox Information on Tuesday. ‘However that’s for the Republican Social gathering and that’s for the Democratic Social gathering.’”

2020 Put up Mortem

“Court docket submitting reveals Rep. Scott Perry’s huge internet of contacts in bid to reverse 2020 election” [Politico]. “The newly disclosed paperwork reveal a unprecedented internet of communications between Perry, who’s now the chair of the Home Freedom Caucus, and key figures in Trump’s orbit…. the exchanges with DOJ’s [Jeff] Clark — described in Smith’s federal indictment of Trump as certainly one of six unnamed and unindicted co-conspirators in an effort to subvert the 2020 election — are maybe probably the most revealing. Clark, then a low-profile determine who oversaw the Justice Division’s civil litigation within the closing months of the presidential time period, was launched to Trump by Perry amid Trump’s effort to stay in workplace. Trump got here near appointing Clark as appearing lawyer normal within the early days of 2021 earlier than backing down amid a mass resignation risk by senior DOJ and White Home officers. Throughout this time, Clark pressured prime DOJ officers to ship a letter to state legislatures urging them to think about sending alternate slates of presidential electors to Congress, and he obtained a safety clearance to evaluation intelligence about potential international efforts to intervene within the election. Perry indicated in a single newly disclosed change that Trump had personally authorised a ‘presidential safety clearance,’ a remark that adopted Clark asking Perry to make sure that Trump was conscious that CIA Director Gina Haspel wanted to provide him with ‘safety clearance tickets’ to entry intelligence associated to the 2020 election.’” And: “Most of the paperwork linked to the case had been stored beneath seal. However on Wednesday, the D.C. Circuit unsealed them — together with a decrease court docket’s opinion that described and quoted from a big quantity of the very textual content messages that Smith has been looking for. By Wednesday night, the unsealed opinion appeared to have been faraway from the court docket’s public docket, suggesting it could have been posted inadvertently.” • Oops?

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, plainly individuals are truly studying the back-dated publish! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are numerous updates. So I should do this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Social gathering (“the Democrat Social gathering is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated publish, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “stay” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Social gathering is, in actual fact, a tough downside. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the way in which again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Social gathering is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Social gathering didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working components of the Social gathering reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between parts of the Social gathering (ka-ching, however not solely) these parts comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with belongings within the press and the intelligence neighborhood.

Word, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different courses; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

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“Hollywood Goes Residence: How Celeb Endorsements Are Serving to Dems Win Down Poll” [The Messenger]. “In cities throughout the nation, there’s that particular person – the child who made it huge, starred in some films, grew to become an motion hero, possibly even gained some awards. What if that particular person informed you about an upcoming native election? Or a candidate who you need to think about supporting? They’re well-known, positive, however they’re greater than that: They’re your city’s well-known particular person, somebody with native credibility as a result of they know what it’s wish to develop up the place you probably did. That’s the speculation behind The Hometown Venture, an progressive effort that appears to pair celebrities with candidates for state legislature, college board, or different native workplaces from the areas they grew up in. The objective is to make use of their native superstar to extend voter engagement, educate voters on the upcoming election, and help Democratic candidates in typically missed and underfunded campaigns. The speculation is straightforward: The Hometown Venture works with native organizations to search out aggressive races in key states, then makes use of its community to ask celebrities from these areas to tape quick movies both urging folks to vote or endorsing a particular candidate. The group then runs these movies as digital adverts focused to key voters within the district it’s seeking to win.”• What is is with “progressives” and celebrities?

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Anthony Fauci to Testify in Home on Covid-19 Pandemic’s Origins, U.S. Response” [Wall Street Journal]. “The preparations for Fauci’s testimony are in depth. They may start with two days of transcribed interviews behind closed doorways in January. A public listening to, which is anticipated to be contentious, shall be held at a later date…. In a letter to Fauci in the present day, Rep. Brad Wenstrup (R., Ohio), chairman of the Choose Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic, mentioned the committee and Fauci’s staff had agreed Fauci would give a transcribed interview on Jan. 8 and 9 for seven hours every day. The letter states that two authorities attorneys and two private attorneys can accompany Fauci at these classes, which gained’t be public. The date for the general public listening to hasn’t but been set. Wenstrup and different Home Republicans, citing electronic mail exchanges, have charged that Fauci labored with different scientists to minimize the potential of a lab leak in a seminal March 2020 scientific article, “The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2,” within the journal Nature Medication.” • And the spooks labored proper alone with Fauci (mentioned Kristian Andersen; too lazy to search out the hyperlink). I ponder if they are going to be questioned too? Or whether or not Fauci will attempt to drag them in?

#COVID19

“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Common Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the tackle given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater experiences); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep protected on the market!

Covid is Airborne

Novid success:

Takes self-discipline.

Maskstravaganza

I’m all for probiotics, garlic, ginger, and so forth., however holy moley! #CovidIsAirborne!

PREVENT VIRAL ILLNESS WITH THIS ONE COOL TRICK.

Masks. It’s masks. Put on a masks. pic.twitter.com/5Vvoq6lXIX

— Jessy Roos (@jessyroos) November 29, 2023

Some air flow folks actually must evangelize the Mommy Blogs…..

“Routine Masks Sporting as A part of COVID-19 Management in Japan: An Evaluation Utilizing the Self-Report Behavior Index” [Behavioral Sciences]. N = 2640. “Though the Japanese authorities eliminated mask-wearing necessities in 2023, comparatively excessive charges of masks sporting have continued in Japan. We aimed to evaluate psychological causes and the power of recurring masks sporting in Japan…. A regression evaluation examined the affiliation between psychological causes and the frequency of masks sporting. The recurring use of masks was assessed within the participant’s most steadily visited indoor house and public transport utilizing the self-report behavior index. The principal part evaluation with varimax rotation revealed distinct recurring traits. Among the many 2640 individuals surveyed from 6 to 9 February 2023, solely 4.9% reported not sporting masks in any respect. Conformity to social norms was an important motive for masks. Contributors exhibited a barely greater diploma of habituation in the direction of masks sporting on public transport in comparison with indoor areas. The mask-wearing price was greater in females than in males, and no important distinction was recognized by age group. Day by day masks sporting in indoor areas was characterised by two traits (automaticity and behavioral frequency). A excessive mask-wearing frequency has been maintained in Japan throughout the social reopening transition interval. Masks sporting has develop into part of day by day behavior, particularly on public transport, largely pushed by automated and frequent apply.”

Immune Dysregulation

“What we find out about danger of a ‘triple-demic’ this respiratory virus season” [National Post]. “One current examine recommended COVID-19 infections could have been a driving drive for the 2022 surge in RSV infections amongst youngsters 5 and beneath, presumably due to the results of SARS-CoV-2 on a baby’s immune and respiratory methods.” • Remarkably, no point out of so-called “immunity debt.”

Testing and Monitoring

A really lengthy thread on testing:

2) One of the crucial attention-grabbing examine :

“Testing at scale throughout the COVID-19 pandemic”https://t.co/LZRfXh2GRp
“Even probably the most in depth testing schemes have been discovered to overlook many infectious people and to supply solely partial inhabitants protection.” pic.twitter.com/VIpeo3h1ZI

— Emmanuel (@ejustin46) November 26, 2023

“One thing Terrible”

Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” is likely to be a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. A lot of exceptionally nasty sequelae, most probably deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we’d add mind harm, together with character modifications therefrom.

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Case Knowledge

NOT UPDATED From BioBot wastewater knowledge, November 27:

Lambert right here: Case counts shifting well upward (and tinfoil hat time: That is the, er, inflection level CDC was making an attempt to hide after they gave the contract to Verily and didn’t guarantee a seamless transition).

Regional knowledge:

That Midwest near-vertical curve is regarding, though as ever with Biobot you need to look ahead to backward revisions.

• “CDC revamps wastewater COVID knowledge reporting” [Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy]. “The Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention (CDC) lately unveiled new wastewater knowledge monitoring dashboard to make it simpler to trace native and nationwide developments, even by variant. Wastewater monitoring is likely one of the early indicators well being officers use to gauge the exercise of SARS-CoV-2 and different viruses. Referred to as the Nationwide Wastewater Surveillance Program [NWSS], the primary web page says that, nationally, wastewater viral exercise of COVID is excessive. On Twitter (X), Niall Brennan, MPP, senior adviser to the CDC’s director, mentioned the makeover was accomplished over a 4-week interval by a staff informally referred to as “Poo’s Clues.” He added that the objective was to reimagine the way to current the info and enhance the visualizations, which had been beforehand underwhelming. Wastewater monitoring customers can now see nationwide developments in 1-year, 6-month, and 45-day increments and look at regional and native developments. The brand new portal additionally has maps exhibiting wastewater viral exercise ranges and reveals shifts in variants over time. ‘It was enjoyable and quick paced and my due to the unimaginable staff at CDC who willingly ripped up the rule e-book within the course of of creating this unimaginable useful resource extra accessible to a wider viewers. Far more to return!,’ Brennan mentioned.” • Hopefully. CDC being CDC, the outdated wastewater web page doesn’t consult with the brand new. Confusingly, CDC being CDC, the primary NWSS web page (up to date November 29) has a near-useless chart (evaluate to BioBot’s). I’ll begin with the nationwide knowledge, then regional (Midwest, as a result of ranges are excessive there), then Minnesota. I’ve helpfully annotated and added notes to every chart. On the nationwide degree:

“Close to ineffective,” as I mentioned. NOTES [1] “FromDB”? Who let that slip by? [2] The colour scale doesn’t appear to narrate to something. [3] The chart truncates the course of the pandemic, starting solely in January 2022, which is flat-out ridiculous.

The clickthrough regional web page chart (up to date November 25) is extra helpful, and reveals the regarding spike within the Midwest:

NOTES [1] There is no such thing as a shade scale. The nationwide and regional charts ought to be constant. [2] “Choose a geography” isn’t English; change with “Choose a area.” Additionally, clarify which area, utilizing (one assumes) the identical terminology because the CDC variant chart.

The second degree of clickthrough (up to date November 25), for nationwide, state, and regional knowledge, is much more helpful, and reveals a actually regarding near-vertical in Minnesota:

NOTES [1] The grey shading is an efficient characteristic! [2] Presumably an indirect reference to the Biobot lawsuit. [3] There is no such thing as a Stage indicator (“Excessive”, or no matter), whether or not accompanied by a shade scale or not.

Lambert right here, general feedback: (1) Three clickthroughs is dumb. Consolidate to 1 chart on the primary web page. (2) Institutionally, it seems to be like three groups had been at work, one per chart, and their work was incompletely built-in, as proven by inconsistencies within the Stage indicators and shade scale, and the large typo on the nationwide chart. So no matter org chart debacle produced that end result ought to be mounted. (3) The cadence with which the info is refreshed is nowhere documented. (4) Regional names ought to be according to CDC variants, e.g. (5) “All Outcomes” (nationwide chart) ought to imply simply that: Knowledge for your complete course of the pandemic (so combine the [family-blogging] Biobot knowledge ffs, if that’s what it takes). As issues stand, it seems to be like CDC is making an attempt to erase the primary two years of the pandemic — together with the Biden Administration’s huge Omicron spike — and that’s not a great look. (Additionally, I checked the Verily web site, and it appears as horrid as ever. Maybe they had been a part of the CDC NWSS improvement staff, I don’t know.)

Variants

NOT UPDATED From CDC, November25:

Lambert right here: High of the leaderboard: HV.1, EG.5 a robust second, however BA.2.86 arising quick on the skin.

From CDC, November 11:

Lambert right here: I positive hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to amenities lower by directors of unwell intent).

CDC: “As of Might 11, genomic surveillance knowledge shall be reported biweekly, primarily based on the supply of constructive check specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice every week; semiweekly.” Appears to be like like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

Covid Emergency Room Visits

NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, November 25:

Lambert right here: Slight will increase in some age teams, conforming to wastewater knowledge. Solely every week’s lag, so this can be our greatest present nationwide, present indicator.

NOTE “Charts and knowledge offered by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous 12 months, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not your complete pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “similar to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is suitable for each_{MR SUBLIMINAL I hate these folks a lot}. Discover additionally that this chart reveals, not less than for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, regardless that CDC is making an attempt to get us to consider that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the prevailing institutional equipment for injections. And naturally, we’re not even stepping into the standard of the wastewater websites that now we have as a proxy for Covid an infection general.

• Here’s a fully unserious evaluation from Mom Jones (you simply learn a critical evaluation [lambert blushes modestly]).

Hospitalization

Bellwether New York Metropolis, knowledge as of November 30:

Up. Stage-ish, however I wager hospitalization drops over the vacation weekend. Let’s wait and see. New York state as an entire seems to be extra like a spike. (I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading, though the hospital-centric public well being institution loves it, hospitalization and deaths being the one metrics that matter [snort]).

NOT UPDATED Right here’s a unique CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, not less than. November 18:

Lambert right here: “Maps, charts, and knowledge offered by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So the place the heck is the replace, CDC?

Positivity

NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, November 27:

0.4%. Up. (It could be attention-grabbing to survey this inhabitants typically; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and massive peer strain, went and obtained examined anyhow.)

NOT UPDATED From Cleveland Clinic, November 25:

Lambert right here: Enhance (with backward revision; guess they thought it was over). I do know that is simply Ohio, however the Cleveland Clinic is sweet*, and we’re starved for knowledge, so…. NOTE * Even when hospital an infection management is making an attempt to kill sufferers by eliminating common masking with N95s.

NOT UPDATED From CDC, traveler’s knowledge, November 6:

Down, albeit within the rear view mirror. And listed here are the variants for vacationers, November 6:

BA.2.86 coming alongside properly.

Deaths

Whole: 1,183,664 – 1,183,455 = 209 (209 * 365 = 76,285 deaths per 12 months, in the present day’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “dwelling with” Covid (fairly a bit greater than the minimizers would really like, although they’ll discuss themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I may need to resolve that is what the powers-that-be think about “mission completed” for this specific tranche of demise and illness). 

Lambert right here: This quantity is simply too small it doesn’t matter what. Iowa Covid19 Tracker hasn’t been up to date since September 27, 2023. I’ll need to revert to CDC knowledge. Yech.

Extra Deaths

NOT UPDATED The Economist, November 18:

Lambert right here: Gonna need to whack this, too. How does an automatic mannequin not replace? Based mostly on a machine-learning mannequin.

Stats Watch

Employment State of affairs: “United States Preliminary Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “The variety of Individuals submitting for unemployment advantages rose by 7,000 to 218,000 within the week ending November twenty fifth, a rise from the revised variety of 211,000 reported within the earlier week however barely under market expectations of 220,000. In the meantime, persevering with claims surged by 86,000 to 1.927 million within the prior week, marking the very best degree since November 2021 and hinting at a softening labor market. ”

Private Revenue: “United States Private Revenue” [Trading Economics]. “Private earnings in the USA elevated 0.2% month-over-month in October 2023, the least in 4 months, and matching market forecasts.”

Tech: Zuckerberg shouldn’t be a pleasant particular person in any respect:

Tech: “Google to pay Canada’s ‘hyperlink tax,’ drops risk of eradicating information from search” [Ars Technica]. “Google has agreed to pay Canadian information companies $100 million a 12 months to adjust to the nation’s On-line Information Act, regardless of beforehand saying it could take away Canadian information hyperlinks from search reasonably than make the required funds. Google and authorities officers agreed to a deal that lets Google negotiate with a single information collective and cut back its general monetary obligation. Fb proprietor Meta is in the meantime holding agency in its opposition to funds. ‘Google will contribute $100 million in monetary help yearly, listed to inflation, for a variety of stories companies throughout the nation, together with unbiased information companies and people from Indigenous and official-language minority communities,’ Minister of Canadian Heritage Pascale St-Onge mentioned in a press release in the present day. The $100 million in Canadian foreign money is price about $74 million in US foreign money. Earlier than in the present day’s deal, the federal authorities estimated that Google must pay $172 million a 12 months.” • Chump change! What Google ought to be paying is regardless of the newspaper business made earlier than Google gutted it.

Immediately’s Worry & Greed Index: 64 Greed (earlier shut: 63 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 66 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Nov 30 at 1:32:29 PM ET.

Information of the Wired

“On Pneumatic Tires” [Scope of Work]. “The invention of the wheel is commonly put ahead as a pinnacle of human ingenuity, but it surely strikes me that the defining attribute of contemporary transportation methods shouldn’t be the wheel however the pneumatic tire. In the USA, automobiles with tires carry twice as a lot freight as automobiles with out them. Tires have an outsized position in particular person transportation: The overwhelming majority of Individuals commute on tires, outweighing all different modes by about fourteen to 1. Tires are on our lawnmowers, these iconic symbols of twentieth-century middle-class independence, and so they’re on our e-scooters, maybe the zenith of twenty-first century globalization and consumerism. The tire’s meteoric rise might need shocked nineteenth-century observers of the wheel, which took millennia to penetrate (and form) human tradition. Wheels emerged in varied types between 3000 and 4000 BCE. But even regardless of its apparent utility, wheeled transportation remained costly, uncomfortable, and comparatively uncommon effectively into the early fashionable interval. Richard Bulliet writes that as late as 1570, the variety of four-wheeled carriages in Britain ‘might be counted on one hand,’ and even in 1814 there was just one carriage for each 145 British inhabitants. By comparability, in the present day Britain has about one automobile for each 1.6 folks – and roughly half of Brits personal or have entry to a bicycle. Wrapped in leather-based and riveted to an iron ‘tyre,’ the primary pneumatic tire took place fifteen years earlier than the velocipede – the primary extensively profitable bicycle. The tire was patented, evaluated positively by engineers, after which promptly forgotten. The recognition of bikes, vehicles, and wheeled transportation typically has a lot to do with the tire – and the recognition of the tire owes loads to bikes and vehicles.” • With the ability to repair punctures in my bicyle tires all on my own was an enormous step ahead in autonomy for me as a baby (as was the bicycle itself, after all).

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