2:00PM Water Cooler 12/20/2023 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Sort readers, thanks a lot for all of your assistance on my question yesteday. –lambert

Chook Track of the Day

Stone Partridge, PN du Niokolo-Koba–Campement du Lion, Tambacounda, Senegal. “Two kinds of calls might be heard, the r-weet..r weet within the beggining and tiuu tiuu ultimately. Modifying: Excessive-pass filter, some amplification.”

Politics

“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in reality a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

The Constitutional Order

For reference, right here is Part Three of the Fourteenth Modification of america:

Part 3. No particular person shall be a Senator or Consultant in Congress, or elector of President and Vice President, or maintain any workplace, civil or navy, below america, or below any State, who, having beforehand taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of america, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an government or judicial officer of any State, to help the Structure of america, shall have engaged in rebel or rebel towards the identical, or given help or consolation to the enemies thereof. However Congress could, by a vote of two-thirds of every Home, take away such incapacity.

Additionally for reference, “The Sweep and Pressure of Part Three” (PDF) [William Baude and Michael Stokes Paulsen, University of Pennsylvania Law Review]. • That is the paper, from Federalist Society members, notice nicely, that lit the fuse..

* * *

“Colorado Supreme Courtroom declares Donald Trump is ineligible for the White Home” [Associated Press]. “A divided Colorado Supreme Courtroom on Tuesday declared former President Donald Trump ineligible for the White Home below the U.S. Structure’s rebel clause and eliminated him from the state’s presidential main poll, establishing a possible showdown within the nation’s highest court docket to determine whether or not the front-runner for the GOP nomination can stay within the race…. The court docket stayed its determination till Jan. 4, or till the U.S. Supreme Courtroom guidelines on the case. Colorado officers say the problem have to be settled by Jan. 5, the deadline for the state to print its presidential main ballots…. Trump’s attorneys had promised to enchantment any disqualification instantly to the nation’s highest court docket, which has the ultimate say about constitutional issues…. Trump misplaced Colorado by 13 proportion factors in 2020 and doesn’t want the state to win subsequent 12 months’s presidential election. However the hazard for the previous president is that extra courts and election officers will comply with Colorado’s lead and exclude Trump from must-win states.” • Right here is the opinion–

“Supreme Courtroom Case No. 23SA300 Attraction Pursuant to § 1-1-113(3), C.R.S. (2023) District Courtroom, Metropolis and County of Denver, Case No. 23CV32577 Honorable Sarah B. Wallace, Choose” (PDF) [The Supreme Court of the State of Colorado]. • Footnote 2 raises an attention-grabbing level:

“Colorado Supreme Courtroom” [BallotPedia]. “As of August 2021, all seven judges on the court docket had been appointed by Democratic governors.” • The final appointment was in 2021.

“Colorado Supreme Courtroom Guidelines Trump is Ineligible for the Presidency Below Part 3 of the 14th Modification” [Reason]. “The 4-3 vote isn’t as shut because it appears to be like. Two of the three dissenting justices did so on the bottom that Colorado state election legislation doesn’t give the state courts the authority to determine Part 3 points. They didn’t endorse any of the federal constitutional arguments on Trump’s aspect. And these state statutory points in all probability can’t be reviewed by the US Supreme Courtroom, as a result of state supreme courts are the ultimate arbiters of the which means of state legislation (with a number of exceptions that don’t apply right here).”

* * *

Due course of:

“Trump disqualified from Colorado’s 2024 main poll by state Supreme Courtroom” [WaPo]. “The Colorado Supreme Courtroom’s majority decided that the trial choose was allowed to think about Congress’s investigation of the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the U.S. Capitol, which contributed to the willpower that Trump engaged in rebel. ‘We conclude that the foregoing proof, the nice bulk of which was undisputed at trial, established that President Trump engaged in rebel,’ the bulk wrote.” • Rebel is a criminal offense (“18 U.S. Code § 2383 – Rebel or rebel“). Trump has by no means been charged with it, not to mention convicted of it; nor have every other Capitol rioters, not even the Proud Boys. By Occam’s razor, the only explantion for Trump not being charged is that the prosecutor felt they couldn’t make the case. So, as a substitute, we launder a Democrat investigation into facticity by way of the court docket system. That’s due course of?

“Column: A seismic Colorado court docket determination simply upended Trump’s marketing campaign. Right here’s what comes subsequent” [Los Angeles Times]. “So what’s the court docket’s conservative majority prone to do? It has a number of choices if it desires to reverse the state determination. The least possible avenue is to overturn the factual findings of the Colorado trial court docket. That’s why the decrease court docket’s discovering, after a weeklong trial, that Trump engaged in rebel was such a big step towards Tuesday’s determination. .” • Large win, then, for the Democrats.

“Trump barred from showing on Colorado presidential main poll, state Supreme Courtroom guidelines” [New York Post]. “One of many three dissenting judges on the state Supreme Courtroom wrote Tuesday that questions surrounding the case had been too advanced to be decided on the state stage, and the federal government can’t bar somebody from holding workplace with out due course of. ‘Even when we’re satisfied {that a} candidate dedicated horrible acts prior to now — dare I say, engaged in rebel — there have to be procedural due course of earlier than we will declare that particular person disqualified from holding public workplace,’ Chief Justice Brian D. Boatright wrote.” • That idea of “self-execution” is an actual Pandora’s field, isn’t it?

“Implementing the Rebel Clause In opposition to Trump Strengthens Our Democracy” [Constitutional Accountability Center]. “Implementing the Disqualification Clause isn’t antidemocratic. Our Structure doesn’t go away presidential eligibility totally to voters. As an example, candidates who fail to fulfill the age necessities (“thirty 5”) or citizenship necessities (“pure born Citizen”) contained in Article II, Part 1, are ineligible for the presidency regardless of how widespread they is perhaps with voters. No good argument exists for ignoring Part 1 of Article II to permit voters to determine, simply as no good argument exists for ignoring Part Three of the 14th Modification.” • No due course of wanted for age, so no due course of wanted for rebel?

“Colorado Supreme Courtroom bars Donald Trump from the state’s poll in 2024, ruling he’s disqualified by Jan. 6 actions” [Denver Post]. “‘[This lawsuit] was by no means actually about holding Trump’s identify off Colorado’s poll, as a result of he was by no means going to win our electoral votes,’ [Doug Spencer, a University of Colorado law professor with a focus on election law,] stated, referring to Colorado voters’ decisive rejection of Trump in 2016 and 2020. ‘.’” • Oh.

* * *

The “officer of america” controversy:

“Why 14th Modification bars Trump from workplace: A constitutional legislation scholar explains precept behind Colorado Supreme Courtroom ruling” [Mark A. Graber, The Conversation]. “The presidential oath’s wording is barely totally different from that of different federal officers, however everybody within the federal authorities swears to uphold the Structure earlier than being allowed to take workplace.” • Two oaths, however one sort of workplace? Appears a bit of blithe.

* * *

Rebel and rebel:

“Choose Luttig explains why Donald Trump is disqualified from the presidency” [MSNBC]. Luttig: “All that any of us are capable of do is consider the constructive, goal legislation — on this occasion, the Structure and Part 3 of the 14th Modification. Below the plain, clear phrases of Part 3, the previous president could be disqualified from holding the presidency once more — particularly, given that his plan and energy and try to overturn the 2020 presidential election and stay in energy, however that the American folks had voted to confer the powers of the presidency on Joe Biden, constitutes a transparent violation of the Govt Vesting Clause within the Structure, which prescribes {that a} president will maintain workplace for under a four-year time period, except and till he’s re-elected to the presidency by the American folks. The previous president’s effort to overturn the election and stay in energy is exactly what constitutes a rebel towards the Structure of america.”

“Yielding to Temptation: Colorado’s Supreme Courtroom Blocks Democracy to Bar Trump on the 2024 Poll” [Jonathon Turley, The Messenger] “The result’s an opinion that lacks any limiting rules. It locations the nation on a slippery slope the place purple and blue states may now interact in tit-for-tat disqualifications. In keeping with the Colorado Supreme Courtroom, these choices don’t must be primarily based on the precise feedback made by figures like Trump. As an alternative, it dominated, courts can now embody any statements made earlier than or after a speech to determine a ‘true menace.’” • From the choice, on “true threats”:

Hmm. Presumably the folks doing the “self-executing” half will likely be figuring that out?

“Why Did Trump Supporters Storm the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6? Due to Trump, New Harvard Research Finds” [The Harvard Crimson]. “Shorenstein Middle researchers discovered that 20.6 p.c of the rioters, a plurality, had been motivated to participate within the riot as a result of they supported Trump. One other 20.6 p.c of the rioters cited Trump’s fraudulent claims that the 2020 presidential election was rigged as their main cause for taking part within the Jan. 6 riot. The third commonest cause for attacking the Capitol: a want to begin a civil struggle or an armed revolution, in keeping with the research. Nearly 8 p.c of defendants indicated it was their predominant motivation.” • Hmm.

* * *

Results:

“Colorado’s ineligibility ruling threatens profound disruption in 2024” [Politico]. “The ruling will virtually actually wind up within the U.S. Supreme Courtroom. And whereas the widespread expectation is it will likely be reversed or placed on maintain, the mere truth of it reaching the nation’s highest court docket threatens to supply dramatic fallout. The judges have been positioned by Trump, as soon as once more, within the thick of a novel and extremely fraught mixture of politics and constitutional legislation — not solely grappling with a problem that a number of of their Federalist Society brethren have put forth however pressured to determine the destiny of the ex-president who put in half of its present majority…. Roberts and the remainder of the Courtroom will likely be below monumental strain — and intense scrutiny from each Trump and his political opponents. After the 2020 presidential election, the excessive court docket repeatedly swatted down a collection of challenges from Trump and his allies regardless of the commanding six-justice conservative majority constructed on Trump’s watch.”

“Will the usSupreme Courtroom Preserve Donald Trump Off the Poll ? Some Preliminary Ideas” [Election Law Blog]. “It’s removed from clear that the U.S. Supreme Courtroom will attain the deserves—there are lots of authorized doctrines like ripeness and mootness that will give the Courtroom a solution to keep away from deciding the problems within the case. However it’s crucial for the political stability of the U.S. to get a definitive judicial decision of those questions as quickly as doable…. As soon as once more the Supreme Courtroom is being thrust into the middle of a U.S. presidential election. However in contrast to in 2000 the final political instability in america makes the scenario now far more precarious.”

“Turley deeply troubled by Colorado barring Trump from poll: Might be ‘extremely destabilizing’” [FOX]. Turley: “That is introducing the power of states to successfully block the main candidate for the presidency by barring them from ballots, and it’ll lead to a tit-for-tat. And that is one thing that’s fairly acquainted in different nations. That is the best way issues are in locations like Iran, the place they’ve poll cleaning, the place you will have folks in authorities inform you who’s simply not acceptable so that you can vote for.”

“”Why 14th Modification bars Trump from workplace: A constitutional legislation scholar explains precept behind Colorado Supreme Courtroom ruling” [Mark A. Graber, The Conversation]. “Part 3 then says folks might be disqualified from holding workplace in the event that they ‘engaged in rebel or rebel.’ Authorized authorities from the American Revolution to the post-Civil Conflict Reconstruction understood an rebel to have occurred when two or extra folks resisted a federal legislation by power or violence for a public, or civic, function. Shay’s Rebel, the Whiskey Rebel, Burr’s Rebel, John Brown’s Raid and different occasions had been insurrections, even when the objective was not overturning the federal government. What these occasions had in frequent was that individuals had been attempting to stop the enforcement of legal guidelines that had been penalties of persuasion, coalition constructing and voting. Or they had been attempting to create new legal guidelines by power, violence and intimidation.” • Granting the premise, prosecution appears a bit selective. Absolutely, then, what we had beforehand categorised as riots after the homicide of George Floyd are insurrections? How about pro-Palestine protesters resisting arrest “by power”? Right here once more the shortage of a stopping precept appears evident. NOTE I’m changing into persauded that the query of “what’s an rebel” isn’t one for the courts in any respect. If the voters vote the putative insurrectionist into workplace, isn’t that merely a profitable widespread rebel? And one with remarkably little bloodshed?

* * *

Vivek weighs in:

I pledge to withdraw from the Colorado GOP main poll till Trump can also be allowed to be on the poll, and I demand that Ron DeSantis, Chris Christie, and Nikki Haley do the identical instantly – or else they’re tacitly endorsing this unlawful maneuver which can have disastrous… pic.twitter.com/qbpNf9L3ln

— Vivek Ramaswamy (@VivekGRamaswamy) December 20, 2023

* * *

Lambert right here: I’ve muttered for a while that the distinctive competence of the fashionable political social gathering is management over the poll: Who will get on it, the way it’s counted. On this and allied circumstances, we see this precept in full flower. If the Colorado determination is upheld, we can have established the precedent that officers of 1 social gathering could take away candidates from one other social gathering from the poll, for causes they deem good and enough, and with out due course of. That’s how Baude and Paulsen’s concept that Part Three of the Fourteenth Modification is “self-executing” is operationalized, which strikes me as terribly naive, institutionally.

2024

Lower than a 12 months to go!

* * *

The Democrat existential dilemma: The PMC are too slim a base for a everlasting majority:

It’s not an American downside or (largely) a Biden-specific downside. Biden is attempting to carry collectively a coalition of those that need populism and people who despise the general public. They hate one another. This can be a international dynamic. https://t.co/DwJ4clHwML

— Matt Stoller (@matthewstoller) December 19, 2023

* * *

“‘Medicare for All’ invoice turns into a part of Dean Phillips’ presidential pitch” [Politico]. • Oh, how I want…. Factor is, Medicare simply isn’t that nice anymore, and I think that’s why the one payer group ought to have caught with “single payer,” and so what if it’s wonky. Too late for tears….

* * *

“”Not one of the above” possibility to look on Colorado’s Democratic presidential main ballots” [Colorado Sun]. “The Colorado Democratic Occasion added a “noncommitted delegate” option to the March 5 poll that provides voters the choice of sending untethered representatives to the Democratic Nationwide Conference subsequent 12 months to pick out the social gathering’s nominee. As an alternative of being sure to help a Democratic presidential main candidate supported by Colorado voters, the delegates may again any candidate on the ground of the nominating conference. Individuals voting within the Republican main received’t have an identical alternative.”

* * *
* * *

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, plainly individuals are really studying the back-dated put up! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are lots of updates. So I should do this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Occasion (“the Democrat Occasion is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated put up, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “reside” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Occasion is, in reality, a tough downside. I do assume the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Occasion is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Occasion didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working components of the Occasion reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between parts of the Occasion (ka-ching, however not totally) these parts comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with belongings within the press and the intelligence group.

Observe, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different courses; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

“John Fetterman Exits the Progressive Coalition” [Political Currents by Ross Barkan]. ” Fetterman is within the first 12 months of a six-year time period. He has time to restore relations with progressives or sever ties altogether. At this level, the latter is quickly taking place anyway. For the Pennsylvania activist class, Fetterman is more and more persona non grata. Since he additionally must enchantment to centrists and Israel-supporting Jews within the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh metropolitan areas, he won’t care in any respect. If he does go down this path, although, he’ll must discover a new solution to increase money and wrangle volunteers. There are a lot of younger individuals who confirmed as much as canvass for Fetterman 2022 that won’t trouble for Fetterman 2028. They’ll have lengthy recollections—and different heroes by then.” • Fetterman’s marketing campaign was good. The candidate, troubled. The elected, a tragic story.

“Senator Warren Escalates Criticism of Crypto Trade Teams in New Letters” [Yahoo Finance]. “Senator Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., has intensified her criticism of the crypto trade in a collection of letters despatched to trade teams and the Coinbase alternate. In a letter to the Coin Middle crypto advocacy group, Warren accused the trade of utilizing a ‘not-so secret weapon’ by hiring former protection and legislation enforcement officers in an alleged try to undermine Congressional efforts to handle the position of crypto in financing terrorist teams, together with Hamas. ‘This abuse of the revolving door is appalling, revealing that the crypto trade is spending tens of millions to present itself a veneer of legitimacy whereas preventing tooth and nail to stonewall frequent sense guidelines designed to limit the usage of crypto for terror financing – guidelines that might minimize into crypto firm earnings,’ Warren wrote within the letter. Comparable letters had been additionally despatched to the Blockchain Affiliation and Coinbase, in keeping with Politico. Warren’s criticism stems from her issues in regards to the potential use of crypto to finance terrorist organizations, notably in mild of Hamas’ assault on Israel in October.”

1/ Tonight, I acquired a letter from Sen. Warren criticizing a current letter to Congress cosigned by dozens of former US navy, intelligence officers, and nationwide safety professionals.

Right here’s the letter from Nov. 15: https://t.co/IFBH7m5ywU

— Kristin Smith (@KMSmithDC) December 19, 2023

Realignment and Legitimacy

#COVID19

“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Common Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the deal with given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater stories); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep secure on the market!

Covid is Airborne

Handwashing audits v. airborne aerosol audits:

💯

I’ve labored in a number of nations and I’ve skilled handwashing police exercise in all.

They wander round with clipboards… ticking stuff…

I’ve not seen this audit exercise as soon as for N95… wherever. Not even exterior the SARS1 affected person’s room. https://t.co/GX7rdWgRqW

— Dr Noor Bari (@NjbBari3) December 16, 2023

Scientific Communication

“COVID-19 ranges excessive forward of vacation journey season” [Axios]. “Nearly each state reporting such information is displaying at the very least “excessive” ranges in comparison with baseline developments, with many reporting “very excessive” ranges, as outlined by the CDC.” • Axios redesigned CDC’s “50 shades of gray” right into a shade scheme that really suggests hazard:

“One thing Terrible”

Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” is perhaps a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. A number of exceptionally nasty sequelae, almost definitely deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we would add mind injury, together with persona adjustments therefrom.

* * *

Vehicle accidents as a proxy for society-wide lack of government perform?

I used to be in a site visitors security committee mtg right here (US) final week. Man from freeway patrol stated we’re seeing “one thing very totally different on the roads proper now than we’ve ever seen earlier than.” Hmm what else has occurred not too long ago v diff from something we’ve seen earlier than? +

— 😷 la flaneuse (@laflaneuse) December 17, 2023

Origins Debate

Lambert right here: I don’t recall a touch upon this yesterday, and it’s in reality necessary.

“American scientists misled Pentagon on analysis on the Wuhan Institute of Virology” [U.S. Right to Know]. “U.S. Proper to Know has obtained [how] an early draft of DEFUSE [A 2018 research proposal called DEFUSE called for synthesizing spike proteins with furin cleavage sites] with feedback from “PD” and “BRS.” Emails present these commenters to be “Peter Daszak” and “Baric, Ralph S.”” The mission was not authorised, however the annotations on the draft look to this bystander to be exceptionally nasty:

The Wuhan Lab, in different phrases, will use the cheaper BSL-2 facility:

“BSL-2 experiments are extra handy and cheaper than BSL-3 experiments … Nonetheless, BSL-2 offers a far decrease stage of biosafety than BSL-3 does. This decrease security stage is particularly harmful for experiments involving viruses that may be transmitted by air,” [Justin Kinney, a quantitative biologist at Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory and co-founder of Biosafety Now] stated. “It is rather regarding that Daszak and Baric seem to have thought of it reliable to maneuver high-risk experiments from BSL-3 to BSL-2. Additionally it is regarding that they seem to have thought of doing so in secret, as a substitute of exposing this necessary change of experimental plans and biosafety precautions of their grant proposal.”

Not an excellent look, on the very least. And tasks that aren’t authorised can get recycled into tasks which are.

Coverage

“There Is Cash in Prevention” [Britta Domke, Harvard Business manager]. Necessary. We ran a Google-translated model of this in Hyperlinks on 12/15, however this one is official. The deck: “Firms have been ignoring the big lengthy Covid danger for too lengthy. Now they’re paying for it – actually. Implementing the Swiss cheese system may make them largely Covid-proof very quickly. So what must be accomplished?” • Swiss cheese mannequin! Wonderful!

Elite Maleficence

“Failure to guard: COVID an infection management coverage privileges poor-quality proof” (preprint) [medRxiv]. Necessary. From the Conclusion: “Lots of the issues we and others have raised concerning the Loeb 2022 research are each main and apparent. The preliminary proposal to make use of discontinuous use of N95 towards a suspected aerosol hazard is a deadly flaw by itself, and can also be current in two influenza research typically cited as proof towards efficacy of N95: one by Loeb in 2009 and one by Radonovich in 2019. (versus being e.g. an try to assemble a retroactive justification for prior failures to supply sufficient PPE). , which depends considerably on the fatally flawed research listed above, and by way of administrative manipulations corresponding to altering the classification of SARS-CoV-2 as an RG3 pathogen. All PPE choices needs to be totally clear and standards-based, and people requirements shouldn’t be weakened within the absence of a real interdisciplinary consensus together with representatives of affected staff. Efforts to override these requirements or subordinate them to EBM heuristics(199,200) needs to be completely ended.” • An enormous takedown of Loeb M, Bartholomew A, Hashmi M, Tarhuni W, Hassany M, Teen I, et al. Medical Masks Versus N95 Respirators for Stopping COVID-19 Amongst Well being Care Employees. Ann Intern Med. 2022 Dec;175(12):1629–38. Loeb and Conly are, apparently, working buddies.

“Mission NextGen is ignoring new COVID-19 antivirals once we want them most” [The Hill]. “The $5 billion initiative being administered by Biomedical Superior Analysis and Improvement Authority (BARDA)-led Mission NextGen has did not put money into the subsequent technology of oral COVID-19 antivirals. Subsequent-generation oral antivirals, a few of that are already in growth, are prone to be essentially the most sensible and productive funding to assist defend our most at-risk people and produce us nearer to shifting past this pandemic. Nonetheless, with out authorities/personal partnerships just like what had been carried out for vaccines and monoclonal antibody growth, new next-generation oral antivirals at present in growth could not attain the end line. … Mission NextGen’s funding priorities have persistently uncared for oral antivirals and, as a substitute, prioritized vaccines and monoclonal antibodies (mAbs), as evidenced by every of its funding rounds for applications accomplished so far. Whereas these instruments have been helpful in mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic, they alone can’t be a profitable long-term technique. We’re caught in a perpetual sport of catch-up with up to date vaccines which are typically outdated earlier than they’re even accessible resulting from new SARS-CoV-2 mutations. COVID-19 mAbs have been even much less dependable, as the primary spherical of authorizations had been rapidly revoked resulting from waning efficacy.”

Case Information

NOT UPDATED From BioBot wastewater information, December 18:

Lambert right here: As a completely “intestine really feel” tapewatcher, I might anticipate this peak to fulfill or exceed the 2 earlier Biden peaks; in any case, we haven’t actually begun the subsequent bout of vacation journey, or the subsequent rounds of celebrations. Plus college students haven’t come from from college, after which returned. So the next peak appears just about “baked in.” And that’s earlier than we get to new variants, like JN.1. The true factor to observe is the slope of the curve. If it begins to go vertical, and if it retains on doing so, then maintain onto your hats. (Subsequent week’s studying, nonetheless, is Christmas Day; there might be a data-driven drop.) Keep secure on the market! Solely 14 superspreading days till Christmas!

Regional information:

Arduous to see why the regional cut up (and it positive could be good to have extra granular information). Climate forcing Northerners indoors? Appears facile. There’s snow within the Rockies (inexperienced shade, West), for instance.

• Seems like wastewater continues to be an acceptable proxy for circumstances:

Variants

NOT UPDATED From CDC, December 9:

Lambert right here: JN.1, proven on the NowCast for the primary time, developing quick on the skin, whereas BA.2.86 fades.

From CDC, November25:

Lambert right here: I positive hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to services minimize by directors of unwell intent).

CDC: “As of Might 11, genomic surveillance information will likely be reported biweekly, primarily based on the supply of constructive take a look at specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice per week; semiweekly.” Seems like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

Covid Emergency Room Visits

From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, December 16:

Lambert: Return to upward motion. Solely per week’s lag, so this can be our greatest present nationwide, present indicator.

NOTE “Charts and information supplied by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous 12 months, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not all the pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “identical to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is suitable for each_{MR SUBLIMINAL I hate these folks a lot}. Discover additionally that this chart exhibits, at the very least for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, despite the fact that CDC is attempting to get us to consider that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the present institutional equipment for injections. And naturally, we’re not even moving into the standard of the wastewater websites that we’ve got as a proxy for Covid an infection general.

Hospitalization

NOT UPDATED Bellwether New York Metropolis, information as of December 18:

Lambert right here: I don’t like that little upward spike (you’ve received to look intently at the latest date). Let’s hope it doesn’t maintain taking place.

NOT UPDATED Right here’s a unique CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, at the very least. December 9:

Transferring forward briskly!

Lambert right here: “Maps, charts, and information supplied by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So the place the heck is the replace, CDC?

Positivity

NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, December 18:

-0.3%. Down. (It will be attention-grabbing to survey this inhabitants typically; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and large peer strain, went and received examined anyhow.)

From Cleveland Clinic, December 16:

Lambert right here: Plateauing. I do know that is simply Ohio, however the Cleveland Clinic is nice*, and we’re starved for information, so…. NOTE * Even when hospital an infection management is attempting to kill sufferers by eliminating common masking with N95s.

NOT UPDATED From CDC, traveler’s information, November 27:

Turning upward.

Down, albeit within the rear view mirror. And listed below are the variants for vacationers, November 27:

BA.2.86 blasting upward. This could be an ideal early warning system, if the warning had been in reality early as a substitute of weeks late, good job, CDC.

Deaths

NOT UPDATED Right here is the New York Instances, primarily based on CDC information, December 9:

Stats Watch

There aren’t any official statistics of curiosity right now.

The Economic system: “The financial 12 months forward won’t be binary” [Financial Times]. “However financial actuality in 2024 is prone to be far much less binary, and far more nuanced, than many market contributors and policymakers consider. The primary and most evident is that the pandemic and the coverage response to it has made it very tough to foretell the place the US and international financial system will likely be primarily based on outdated fashions. Employment, wages and different key metrics are refusing to comply with historic developments in lots of locations. Second, decoupling and the rise of commercial coverage have launched a brand new dynamic into fiscal coverage and commerce relations — one that can proceed to play out regardless of who wins the US presidential election subsequent 12 months. And third, there’s an ongoing rate of interest arbitrage affecting enterprise and customers that also has years to run.” • For each one and two, the slogan I’ve been toying with applies: The one actual market is the labor market.

Media: “ChatGPT Is Turning the Web Into Plumbing” [The Atlantic]. “Earlier right now, OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT, introduced a partnership with the media conglomerate Axel Springer that appears to get us nearer to a solution. Below the association, ChatGPT will achieve the capability to current its customers with ‘summaries of chosen international information content material’ printed by the information organizations in Axel Springer’s portfolio, which incorporates Politico and Enterprise Insider. The small print usually are not altogether clear, however the announcement signifies that whenever you question ChatGPT, the bot will be capable of spin up responses primarily based on Axel Springer tales, accompanied by hyperlinks to the tales themselves. Likewise, materials from Axel Springer publications will likely be used as coaching information for OpenAI, advancing the corporate’s merchandise—which can have already consumed one thing like all the web.” • An autocoprophagic doom loop, when the summaries get fed again into the coaching units, as they are going to.

The Bezzle: “Electrical scooter firm Chook information for chapter” [TechCrunch]. • That’s a rattling disgrace.

Immediately’s Concern & Greed Index: 79 Excessive Greed (earlier shut: 79 Excessive Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 67 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Dec 20 at 1:02:56 PM ET.

Groves of Academe

“Swimming Swimming pools and Granite Counter tops: How Faculty Dorms Received So Costly” [Wall Street Journal]. “Many faculties demolished older, cheaper residence halls, switching out double-occupancy rooms and shared hallway bogs for extra personal lodging with communal facilities corresponding to research lounges, health facilities and swimming swimming pools. The median enhance for the costliest housing providing on the 12 faculties was 114%, adjusted for inflation. Many of those luxurious dorms had been constructed and run by personal builders. The colleges typically obtain a minimize of the lease income, making the dorms a possible gold mine.”

Information of the Wired

“Was an historical bacterium woke up by an industrial accident?” [The Economist]. • That is fascinating, however I’m baffled the right way to excerpt it.

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