2:00PM Water Cooler 1/11/2024 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Fowl Track of the Day

Laughing Dove, Bhutnal Kere ಭೂತನಾಳ ಕೆರೆ Vijayapura, Karnataka, India. “Grownup, Unknown intercourse.”

Politics

“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in truth a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

“Constitutional Braveness” [Timothy Snyder, Thinking About…]. ” An insurrectionist, Donald Trump, purports to be operating for president, though the Structure forbids this. Part Three of the Fourteenth Modification frankly disqualifies anybody who has taken half in an rebellion, or given help and luxury to insurrectionists…. The authors of Part Three anticipated simply such a frightful state of affairs. An insurrectionist who swears an oath and violates it has accomplished one thing horrible. He may have allies who’ve tasted tyranny and favored it…. But People who ought to know higher are selecting concern over the Structure, discovering excuses to disregard what it says. Certainly, they’re selecting to concern the Structure. Far too many politicians and different media commentators reply to our current state of affairs — an actual insurrectionist who has tried to overthrow the Structure whereas in workplace, an actual Constitutional ban on insurrectionists operating for workplace a second time — by saying that it’s the Structure that should yield. Their slogan is: ‘let the voters resolve.’ That’s to say: within the case of Trump, and Trump alone, allow us to merely overlook what the Structure says.’ … The exceptionalism reeks of concern. In no different case can we want away the {qualifications} for workplace. There will likely be hundreds and hundreds of contested elections in america in November 2024. With respect to solely one in all them are individuals saying that authorized {qualifications} for workplace don’t matter.” • The choice, I suppose, being to have a combinatorial explosion of occasion members in several states and branches of presidency, utilizing totally different requirements of proof and burdens of proof, disqualifying their political opponents from the poll. Even granting Snyder’s studying of Part Three and his assumptions, it’s not a reasonably sight both manner.

“Disqualifying Trump Is Not Antidemocratic” [Adam Serwer, The Atlantic]. “[New York] Occasions authorized reporter Charlie Savage described the ruling as pitting ‘one basic worth in opposition to one other: giving voters in a democracy the precise to choose their leaders versus making certain that nobody is above the regulation.’ This argument is easy and intuitive: Individuals ought to get to vote for whomever they wish to vote for. [But] democracy is just not merely voting; it consists of limits on how and underneath what circumstances political energy may be disputed and wielded in order that democracy itself can survive from technology to technology. Because of this, democratic constitutions have counter-majoritarian limits; in truth, democracies can’t operate with out sturdy guidelines that set tips for contesting political energy. That’s the complete objective of a written structure, to position sure rights and rules exterior the back-and-forth of regular political competitors. People usually settle for that these guidelines can’t be altered besides by way of the formal course of for doing so—constitutional modification—and so, till that occurs, democratic competitors takes place throughout the traces which have been beforehand agreed upon. It isn’t one way or the other extra democratic to fake these guidelines don’t exist in the event that they fall out of trend with one facet. The prospect of permitting Trump on the poll is just not itself so dire, however doing so calls for disregarding the rule of regulation on Trump’s behalf merely due to who he’s.” • Humorous to see this “counter-majoritarian” argument popping up in a number of locations. It’s nearly like Democrats are getting ready the bottom for the day after they lose the favored vote….

“Part Three And Constitutional Democracy?” [Vermillion Plain Talk]. “Some provisions of the unique Structure, together with safety for slavery and denial to ladies of the precise to vote, for instance, have been clearly undemocratic however, over time, have been amended out of the Structure, because the American individuals got here to acknowledge the cruelty and arbitrariness of these provisions that mirrored anachronistic values of one other age. However different provisions that appear undemocratic — Article II standards for presidential eligibility, the Impeachment Clause, the Disqualification Clause of the 14th Modification and the twenty second Modification — as a result of they impose limits on the alternatives of voters, have retained their vitality and relevance in an age marked by grave constitutional challenges. These voter-limiting provisions serve the larger curiosity of the nation — the need of preserving our constitutional democracy.”

The Constitutional Order

2024

Lower than a yr to go!

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“The Hackery of Choose Florence Pan” [Julie Kelly]. “A 3-judge panel of the Court docket of Appeals for the District of Columbia—Biden appointees Florence Pan and Michelle Childs and George H. W. Bush appointee Karen Henderson—heard oral arguments for Donald Trump’s attraction of a decrease courtroom resolution that concluded presidents should not immune from prison prosecution for his or her conduct in workplace. The attraction originated out of Particular Counsel Jack Smith’s four-count indictment in opposition to the previous president associated to the occasions of January…. The talk concerned two competing, and untested, views: Group Trump argues impeachment and conviction by Congress is the Constitutionally mandated method to deal with prison conduct by a president whereas Smith and Chutkan argue that being president doesn’t confer a ‘get-out-of-jail-free go,’ as Chutkan wrote in her opinion. John Sauer, one of many attorneys representing the previous president, was barely one minute into his opening assertion earlier than Pan minimize him off. Sauer introduced a number of examples of former presidents who engaged in presumably prosecutable conduct in workplace—George W. Bush mendacity concerning the pretext of the Iraq Struggle and Barack Obama authorizing drone strikes that resulted within the killing of People abroad—which prompted Pan to concoct her personal hypotheticals. Calling impeachment ‘a cumbersome course of that requires the actions of a complete department of presidency that has lots of totally different individuals concerned’—no duh—Pan requested Sauer if promoting pardons or army secrets and techniques would stop a president from prison prosecution. As Sauer tried to reply, Pan introduced her made-for-cable-news clickbait: ‘May a president order Seal Group Six to assassinate a political rival? That’s an official act, an order to Seal Group Six?’ She shortly interrupted Sauer—a former regulation clerk to Supreme Court docket Justice Antonin Scalia and solicitor normal for the state of Missouri—as he identified that such an order would lead to rapid impeachment and conviction.” • “[A] entire department of presidency that has lots of totally different individuals concerned” is inane. Huh? Did Pan ever work for Pelosi?

“Election Countdown: 300 Days to Go” [James Fallows, Breaking the News]. Fallows urges that you just hearken to the audio, which is right here. “The arguments involved Donald Trump’s effort to dismiss expenses from the January 6 rebellion, on grounds that he was immune from prosecution for any presidential acts. The drama on this dialogue began early, when Choose Florence Pan requested Trump’s consultant, D. John Sauer, concerning the implications of this argument. I stress that this was real mental drama, moderately than histrionics. The choose’s questions have been relentless however her tone was low-key and calm. Most information reviews right this moment contain the vivid hypothetical query that Sauer couldn’t reply. You possibly can hear it beginning at time 8:00 of this audio-only C-Span model. Choose Pan asks, “May a president order Seal Group 6 to assassinate a political rival? As an official act, an order to Seal Group 6?” Sauer retains speaking after that, however he has nothing left to say…. One different word about Sauer’s efficiency. Some members of Trump’s ever-shifting authorized protection groups have been grifters or incompetents. Against this D. John Sauer’s background is as august as you could possibly discover. And nonetheless he put himself able to make arguments that can endlessly be ridiculed—the legal professionals’ counterpart of the ‘Rose Mary stretch.’” • I’ve to say I stay unconvinced by Pan’s rhetorical query. The query is just not the motion, however who does the convicting for it. Take the instance of George W. Bush. His program of warrantless surveillance was clearly felonious. Congress granted him retroactive immunity for it; in different phrases, didn’t impeach him. To take Pan’s instance, and a beloved one amongst Baude and Paulsen adherents: Suppose the political rival had been Jefferson Davis? Wouldn’t which have been a very good clear kill? Of the 2 choices, conviction by way of the manager department, and conviction by impeachment, I favor conviction by impeachment.

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“Trump’s $370M civil fraud trial is nearing an finish. Right here’s what to know” [ABC]. “After listening to 11 weeks of testimony, a choose on Thursday will hear closing arguments in a courtroom case that would dismantle former President Donald Trump’s New York-based enterprise empire. The ultimate resolution in Trump’s civil fraud trial — which Choose Arthur Engoron is predicted to challenge later this month — couldn’t solely price Trump tons of of tens of millions of {dollars} but in addition bar him from the New York actual property trade that propelled him to stardom and, later, the U.S. presidency. Resting her case after presenting greater than two dozen witnesses, New York Lawyer Common Letitia James alleged that Trump, his grownup sons, and his high deputies inflated the belongings listed in his annual monetary assertion, generally known as an announcement of economic situation or SFC. The statements gave Trump’s lenders a false sense of confidence about doing enterprise with him, which led them to supply Trump extra favorable rates of interest than he would have in any other case acquired, James alleged… ‘There was no financial institution that introduced any claims in opposition to anyone that could be a defendant on this case, as a result of there was no harm and there was no sufferer,’ Trump’s authorized spokesperson, Alina Habba, stated in the course of the trial. Testifying as a witness in the course of the state’s case, Trump assailed Engoron’s discovering that Trump valued his Mar-a-Lago resort at roughly $18 million for tax functions whereas itemizing it in his monetary assertion at greater than $612 million. ‘The fraud is on the Court docket, not on me, once you rule that Mar-a-Lago is price $18 million. I may provide you with 1 / 4 of a tennis courtroom can be price that,’ Trump testified.” • Jake, it’s New York actual property.

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“Donald Trump enjoys a relaxed Fox Information city corridor whereas high Republican rivals have fiery debate” [Associated Press]. “When requested about his earlier statements {that a} second time period as president can be about retribution for his enemies, Trump stated he wouldn’t have time for it. ‘The final word retribution,’ he stated, ‘is success.’” • Served chilly.

“Trump blames Biden’s ‘weak’ presidency for Ukraine struggle, Hamas assault in Israel” [Anadolu Agency]. “‘It will have by no means occurred in Ukraine. Russia would have by no means gone in, would have by no means occurred. The current assault on Israel would have by no means occurred,’ Trump stated throughout a Fox Information city corridor. ‘They see a weak president (Biden) in our nation,’ he stated. ‘And so they did one thing that was unthinkable. .’” • I believe sentence [2] has nice appearl, and solely Trump can say it. Sentence [1], although… A rustic that may’t even handle to fabricate its personal ammunition has points that transcend the Oval Workplace.

“Trump Suggests He’s Picked Vice Presidential Operating Mate: ‘I Know Who It’s Going To Be’” [Forbes] • What a showman. Scorps! Yo, Scorps! Over right here!

“Polls present Latinos again Trump over Biden in 2024. And immigration isn’t the rationale” [USA Today]. “Democratic pollsters have lengthy anticipated that the Latino inhabitants bomb would imply large positive factors for Democrats and a realignment in our nationwide politics. However demography alone is just not future…. Each the USA TODAY/Suffolk College Ballot and the CNBC All-America Financial Survey discovered that Trump has a 5-point lead with Latino voters. This was not the course the wags anticipated nascent Latino voters to steer the nation – towards the champion of disaffected white America, to the person who promised to construct a wall and make Mexico pay for it…. One of many unusual twists in U.S. politics has been the remaking of the GOP from the occasion of the company government within the Eighties to the occasion of the People who drive nails. Donald Trump’s Republican Occasion is decidedly extra working class, and that has drawn particularly Latino males. ‘Latinos tended to favor Democratic presidential candidates over Republican ones, however Latino males shocked pundits by extra strongly supporting Donald Trump in 2020 than was anticipated primarily based on his 2016 exhibiting,’ College of Arizona political scientist Lisa M. Sanchez stated in a Q&A with UA Information. ‘Is there a Latino agenda? It’s a fantasy that the highest challenge for almost all of Latinos is immigration coverage. The highest challenge for Latinos is often the financial system. The truth is, analysis means that the Latino agenda seems loads just like the agendas of every other racial or ethnic group within the U.S.’… To cite the indelicate phrase from the ‘90s: It’s the financial system, silly. In 2024, Latinos are more likely to be involved with problems with huge inflation, stagnant wages and hovering healthcare prices – all financial in nature.’”

“Trump critic Chris Christie exits 2024 US presidential race” [France24]. “Since launching his bid in June, Christie has been a staple on cable information reveals providing withering critiques of Trump, calling him unfit for workplace and arguing that he was morally answerable for the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the US Capitol. Whereas the broadsides earned Christie a sliver of help amongst Republicans wanting to maneuver in a brand new course, Trump’s tight grip on the occasion’s most lively members meant Christie by no means rose above low single digits in nationwide polls. His departure eliminates probably the most vocal Trump antagonist from the race, though Haley, a former US ambassador to the United Nations, has grown more and more essential of Trump in current months.” • Oh properly…

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“The Biden Field” [The American Prospect]. “So is nothing to be accomplished apart from discover the principles for emigrating to Canada? We will’t take 20 years off Biden, however there are literally a number of issues to be accomplished. For starters, as Obama steered, Biden wants a marketing campaign staff that isn’t the identical as his high White Home staffers. Second, he must cease touting his financial successes and make the marketing campaign about Trump. His Valley Forge speech was a very good begin. I believed the Charleston speech, geared toward rallying the Black vote, was much less efficient as a result of it lacked Obama’s contact at uniting Black and white voters. The “cease-fire now” interruptions have been a reminder that there’s multiple method to depress the Black vote. Third, Biden wants to finish the 2 wars which are dragging down his credibility as a frontrunner. Netanyahu (who would moderately have Trump) is making a idiot out of Biden. The U.S. wants to make use of its leverage to set express humanitarian situations and transfer Israel to an early cease-fire and peace plan. Even probably the most pro-Israel Jewish voters (and donors) are fed up. There’s additionally a deal available to finish the Ukraine Struggle. The deal is a few land in change for a cease-fire and NATO ensures of Ukrainian sovereignty. Biden will all the time be an growing old chief who’s in danger when he’s off-script. However at the very least he could be a higher model of himself.” • Biden believes in his two wars, particularly Israel’s struggle. And there’s solely a deal available to finish the struggle in Ukraine if (a) Russia believes the US is a “agreement-capable,” and (b) if Russia has achieved its struggle goals. Each are unlikely. In any case, why would Putin wish to assist re-elect Biden?

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“Republicans push forward with Hunter Biden contempt cost after shock go to to Capitol Hill” [Associated Press]. “The Home Oversight and Judiciary committees every handed contempt expenses in opposition to the youthful Biden with unanimous Republican help and all Democrats opposed. The motion units up a Home vote on recommending prison expenses in opposition to a member of President Joe Biden’s household because the GOP strikes into the ultimate levels of an impeachment inquiry into the president himself. If the Home votes to carry Hunter Biden in contempt, it is going to be as much as the Division of Justice, particularly the U.S. legal professional for the District of Columbia, to resolve whether or not to prosecute.” • Ridiculous to see supposedly severe legislators voting in favor of a stunt.

“Why Hunter Biden confirmed up on the Capitol” [Axios]. “Hunter’s staff didn’t loop in White Home aides about his plans [or so they say] — the most recent instance of the president’s son taking management of his authorized protection, three individuals aware of the matter advised Axios. Hunter’s sudden look with legal professional Abbe Lowell created a nationally televised frenzy on the Capitol at a time when Republicans have focused Hunter’s international enterprise dealings as a part of an impeachment inquiry into his father. Hunter went by way of a prolonged prep for Wednesday’s listening to [or so they say] simply in case Home Republicans determined they wished him to testify publicly, based on two of the sources who spoke with Axios.” • I assume it does make sense to do prep in case the Republican’s known as Hunter’s bluff — Expensive Hunter! — however come on. You don’t simply present up at a Congressional listening to!

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“Cenk Uygur Fights the Pure-Born Citizen Restriction” [American Prospect]. “There’s a listening to this morning earlier than the U.S. district courtroom in Columbia, South Carolina, primarily based on a grievance Uygur filed that seeks an injunction in opposition to the choice to take his title off the poll for the February 3 Democratic major. The South Carolina Democratic Occasion rejected Uygur’s bid to make the first poll—with out refunding him the $20,000 submitting payment—primarily based on a studying of Article II, Part 1, Clause 5 of the Structure, which says that solely ‘pure born residents’ are allowed to serve within the workplace of the presidency. Uygur argues that the denial of his petition for placement on the poll violates a separate a part of the Structure: Part 1 of the 14th Modification, which states that ‘All individuals born or naturalized in america’ are residents, and that ‘No State shall make or implement any regulation which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of residents of america … nor deny to any individual inside its jurisdiction the equal safety of the legal guidelines.’ Within the studying of Uygur and his staff, this overrides the Article II restriction on naturalized residents to grow to be president.’” Attention-grabbing thought! Additionally: “Six states have let Uygur onto the poll.”

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“Large 2024 Presidential Election Adjustments Are Leaving Voters Baffled” [Wall Street Journal]. “Iowa Republicans on Monday will caucus to decide on a presidential candidate, however Democrats will begin to vote by mail and wait weeks for outcomes. In New Hampshire the next week, each events will solid major ballots, however the Democrats’ votes will likely be purely symbolic.

After which in early February, Nevada Republicans can vote in two contests: a caucus with out all of the GOP candidates, and a major the place outcomes gained’t depend towards the nomination.

For that confusion, voters can thank allies of President Biden and former President Donald Trump, who’ve pushed for adjustments to the calendar to spice up their candidates’ nomination prospects and make it more durable for challengers…. On the Democratic facet, Biden personally requested that South Carolina exchange Iowa because the occasion’s first nominating contest. The state saved his struggling 2020 major marketing campaign after he carried out poorly in Iowa and New Hampshire. For Republicans, the Trump marketing campaign stated it helped affect occasion officers in some states, together with California, to vary their guidelines so the previous president can accumulate delegates extra shortly. In Nevada, occasion officers near Trump opted to award delegates by way of a caucus as a substitute of the state-mandated major as a result of, they stated, its in-person format mitigates election-security issues. Critics stated voters can be confused and Trump will profit as a result of the kind of engaged voters who help Trump additionally favor in-person caucuses.”

MN: “Rep. Ilhan Omar to report elevating $1.6 million in This autumn” [Axios]. “The most recent elevate, which matches her complete contributions from the primary 9 months of the yr, was fueled by about 47,000 particular person donations, the marketing campaign advised Axios. About 98% of these have been underneath $200. The three-term member of Congress is one in all a number of Home Democrats affiliated with the ‘Squad’ to draw a severe major challenger following their criticism of Israel’s actions within the wake of Hamas’ Oct. 7 assault.” • I’d like to see Ilhan beat AIPAC.

NV: “Counties remind Nevadans: Trump didn’t file for presidential major, so he gained’t be on poll” [News from the States].

Democrats en Déshabillé

“Choose orders Democrats on the Colorado Capitol to cease utilizing secret voting system to allocate state finances” [Colorado Sun]. “Denver District Court docket Choose David Goldberg dominated that the key system — quadratic voting — doesn’t adjust to the state’s open conferences legal guidelines, which prohibit authorities our bodies from taking formal motion by secret poll…. Democrats started utilizing quadratic voting in 2019, as reported on the time by The Colorado Solar. The method utilized an obscure financial idea to the problem of prioritizing finances requests, primarily turning the caucus’ decision-making course of right into a market. Lawmakers acquired an allocation of vote tokens to ‘spend’ on applications they cared about most. However the lawsuit argued that not solely did the system violate public transparency legal guidelines, it was ‘purposefully constructed to hide info the general public is entitled to know.’ The caucus employed a third-party contractor to conduct the vote and hold the ballots nameless by way of an digital voting system…. Lawmakers contended in courtroom that the voting system wasn’t a ‘secret poll’ as a result of the quadratic voting didn’t represent an official motion of the legislature. The appropriations payments nonetheless needed to undergo public hearings, debates and votes to be adopted into regulation. Goldberg disagreed. ‘Adopting a proposed place by way of nameless voting is exactly the rationale why the Common Meeting amended (the open conferences regulation) to ban secret ballots,’ he wrote.” Digital voting. In fact.

“Democrats! Time to Re-Embrace Advantage, Free Speech, and Universalism” [Ruy Teixeira, The Liberal Patriot]. “Most voters, particularly working-class voters, suppose racial preferences are not honest and equity is a basic a part of their world outlook. They really consider, with Martin Luther King Jr., that folks ought to ‘not be judged by the colour of their pores and skin however by the content material of their character.’ In a current College of California Dornsife survey, this basic assertion of colorblind equality was posed to respondents: “Our purpose as a society needs to be to deal with all individuals the identical with out regard to the colour of their pores and skin”. This MLK-style assertion elicited sky-high (92 p.c) settlement from the general public, regardless of the assaults on this concept from Essential Race Concept (CRT) and the likes of Ibram X. Kendi and enormous sectors of the Democratic left. In an enchanting associated discovering, the researchers discovered that most individuals who declare to have heard about CRT consider CRT consists of this colorblind perspective, moderately than immediately contradicting it. Maybe they simply can’t consider any idea that has something to do with race would reject this basic precept.”

Realignment and Legitimacy

“American Gerontocracy, Defined” [Crooked Timber]. “My declare is {that a} confluence of largely unrelated elements will trigger generational battle to grow to be a central cleavage in US politics within the 2020s. This implies holding fastened the time Interval of research and treating Age (there are lots of outdated individuals) and Cohort (these outdated persons are Child Boomers) as two distinct sorts of causes of the current generational battle…. This battle has a zero-sum dimension, as youthful and older generations jostle over a hard and fast fiscal finances, with mutually unique preferences…. However in one other necessary sense, the strain between Boomer Ballast and the web revolution is negative-sum, and probably much more regarding for the viability of america as a system…. Our society is sort of a sluggish laptop computer with too many browser tabs open, too many assets dedicated to sustaining issues as they’re, to have the ability to do new issues shortly…. [A] totally armed and operational web/social media/smartphone stack, deployed to the vast majority of people in underneath a decade, is reshaping societies, economies, cultures, households. However as a result of this “freedom” comes with out elevated capacities, it produces largely meaninglessness, alienation and vitriol. And Boomer Ballast makes the issue a lot worse.” • I dunno….

#COVID19

“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Common Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the deal with given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reviews); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep protected on the market!

Search for the Helpers

Counting particles! Actually small ones! Together with aerosols!

It’s been a protracted street however we’re so excited to share our progress on the world’s first open supply, low-cost, condensation particle counter! What’s it and why must you care? @masknerd explains why this CPC is a BFD.https://t.co/AKj16IrVVx

— OpenAeros (@OpenAeros) January 10, 2024

Respirator check at 5:48.

One other open supply mission:

After lots of backwards and forwards and a few much-appreciated behind-the-scenes arm twisting, @github lastly unlocked our account, and the information can be found once more. Because of everybody who helped🙏🏻 It will likely be good to have a steady place to place future deliberate pandemic-related Open… https://t.co/DnA3kWCmwQ

— Nukit (@NukitToBeSure) January 9, 2024

Media

“Deborah Birx: Understanding COVID response failures essential for future” [Chris Cuomo, NewsNation]. • Cuomo has Lengthy Covid; his Covid protection improved. One an infection at a time…

“Orf vs. the Reminiscence Gap: The Heartless Shaming Campaigns of Covid-19” (paywall) [Matt Taibbi, Racket News]. “I’m recovering from a very violent bout of Covid-19, so maybe as a vaccinated individual I’m a bit frostier on the topic than one may usually be, however [Racket’s Matt Orfalea] has put collectively a clip I hope future historians will trouble to assessment. It’s now clear one of many largest, if not the most important single sources of misinformation concerning the Covid-19 pandemic was Fauci himself. By the way, as Dr. Jay Bhattacharya simply famous, Fauci simply admitted the six-foot social distancing rule ‘simply type of appeared,’ and was seemingly not primarily based on any information. So there’s that.” • The rest of Taibbi’s little question penetrating remarks is hidden behind a paywall. I’m probably not pleased with Taibbi normalizing psycho eugenicists like “Dr.” Jay Bhattacharya (he being an economist, not a medical physician). I’m even much less pleased with ‘simply type of appeared,’ not as a result of Fauci isn’t a loathesome gremlin and a skillful liar, he completely is, however as a result of “simply type of appeared” is, in truth one in all Fauci’s lies, although with out a transcript — not but public, Taibbi sourced to a tweet — we will’t be utterly positive of the the context. Should you suppose for a second, you will note that anyone who believes in droplet dogma should consider that by the legal guidelines of ballistics, droplets will fall inside a sure radius of the emitter (not like aerosols, which float like smoke). Therefore social distance. See this text on droplet dogma from Wired, masking how Linsey Marr and Jose-Luis Jimenez tracked down the historical past of the science. First, social distancing didn’t “seem.” It was actively propagated by CDC and WHO. Second, the science is at greatest questionable: “[S]ocial distancing guideline gave the impression to be primarily based on a number of research from the Nineteen Thirties and ’40s.” Third, aerosol transmission, which essentially de-emphasizes social distancing, is being and has been fought tooth and nail at each CDC and WHO by the general public well being institution. Shorter: Fauci’s mendacity about “simply type of appeared,” too, and whereas I really like Taibbi’s reporting on Iowa, in Covid he’s both too infatuated by GBD goons like Bhattacharya, not occupied with operating down the story, or — heaven forfend — affected by lack of government operate.

Sequelae

“Incidence of persistent SARS-CoV-2 intestine an infection in sufferers with a historical past of COVID-19: Insights from endoscopic examination” [Endoscopy International Open]. N = 166. “Intestine an infection is widespread throughout acute COVID-19, and chronic SARS-CoV-2 intestine an infection has been reported months after the preliminary an infection, probably linked to long-COVID syndrome. This examine examined the incidence of persistent intestine an infection in sufferers with a historical past of COVID-19 present process endoscopic examination…. Intestine mucosal tissues can act as a long-term reservoir for SARS-CoV-2, retaining viral particles for months following the first COVID-19 an infection. People who smoke and people with diabetes could also be at an elevated danger of persistent viral intestine an infection.”

Elite Maleficence

Any person put Mandy on a milk carton:

23 days since @who declared JN1 a VOI & known as for common masking/improved air flow in healthcare & @CDCDirector remains to be silent. Name @cdcgov & ask why! Callcenter # is 800-232-4638 ask to escalate to cdc employees. https://t.co/666vo7JVcK

— Greta Fox @Greta_NP@forall.social (@Greta_NP) January 10, 2024

Case Knowledge

NOT UPDATED From BioBot wastewater information, January 9:

Lambert right here #1: Nonetheless going up. As a very “intestine really feel” tapewatcher, I’d count on this peak to satisfy or exceed the 2 earlier Biden peaks; in any case, we haven’t actually begun the following bout of vacation journey, or the following rounds of superspreading occasions celebrations. Plus college students haven’t come from from faculty, after which returned. So the next peak appears just about “baked in.” And that’s earlier than we get to new variants, like JN.1. The actual factor to look at is the slope of the curve. If it begins to go vertical, and if it retains on doing so, then maintain onto your hats.

Lambert right here #2: Known as it. Impressively, the Biden administration has now blown by way of all earlier information, with the only exception of the Omicron, the highest of the leaderboard, a document additionally set by itself. Congratulations to the Biden staff! I do know lots of people suppose the height will come within the subsequent two weeks or so; I’d like to listen to at the very least some anecdotal proof of that past the fashions (as a result of recall JN.1, whose peak that is, is extraordinarily infectious).

Lambert right here #3: Slight lower in slope, because of the Northeast and the West (until it’s a knowledge challenge). Personally, I wouldn’t name a peak, primarily based completely on the anecdotes I’m scrolling by way of, which aren’t encouraging, significantly with regard to the faculties. Very unscientific, I agree! Let’s wait and see. Word that I don’t settle for the PMC “homework” mannequin, whose most well-known exponent is Sociopath of the Day Bob Wachter, the place you modify your habits based on a number of sources of (horrible, gappy, lagged) information about an infection ranges (ignoring “danger of damage”). Simply stick together with your protocol day in and day trip, my recommendation. Ok.I.S.S. Nonetheless, monitoring these traits, moreover having intrinsic curiosity, is pragmatically helpful for main selections, like journey, cruises (absolutely not, readers), relocation, household occasions, communication with recalcitrant HCWs, and so forth.

Regional information:

Regional bifurcation continues. The slope of the curve within the Northeast obtained much less steep, which is sweet information (though, as ever, Biobot information is topic to backward revision).

The MWRA, January 8:

MWRA is down, however I’m guessing that’s as a result of the scholars aren’t again. (Spring semester begins at BU January 12; Harvard, January 22.) OTOH, college students return to Boston public colleges January 3.)

Variants

NOT UPDATED From CDC, January 6:

Lambert right here: JN.1 now dominates. That was quick.

CDC: “As of Could 11, genomic surveillance information will likely be reported biweekly, primarily based on the provision of optimistic check specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice every week; semiweekly.” Seems to be like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

Covid Emergency Room Visits

NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, January 6:

Lambert: Down, however New 12 months’s reporting?

NOTE “Charts and information supplied by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous yr, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not your entire pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “identical to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is acceptable for each_{MR SUBLIMINAL I hate these individuals a lot}. Discover additionally that this chart reveals, at the very least for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, despite the fact that CDC is making an attempt to get us to consider that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the present institutional equipment for injections. And naturally, we’re not even stepping into the standard of the wastewater websites that now we have as a proxy for Covid an infection total.

Hospitalization

Bellwether New York Metropolis, information as of January 11:

Lambert right here: Very slight lower. Word that NYC information solely lags by a day.

NOT UPDATED Right here’s a special CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, at the very least. December 30:

Shifting forward briskly!

Lambert right here: “Maps, charts, and information supplied by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Take a look at Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So the place the heck is the replace, CDC?

Positivity

NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, January 8:

0.5%. Up. (It will be attention-grabbing to survey this inhabitants usually; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and large peer strain, went and obtained examined anyhow.)

NOT UPDATED From Cleveland Clinic, January 6:

Lambert right here: Share and absolute numbers down.

NOT UPDATED From CDC, traveler’s information, December 18:

Down, albeit within the rear view mirror. And listed here are the variants for vacationers, December 18:

Word the chart has been revised to mirror that JN.1 is BA.2.86.1 (the numbers “roll over”).

Deaths

NOT UPDATED Right here is the New York Occasions, primarily based on CDC information, December 30:

Stats Watch

Employment State of affairs: “United States Preliminary Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “The variety of People submitting for unemployment advantages fell by 1,000 from the earlier week’s upwardly revised worth to 202,000 on the interval ending January sixth, properly under market expectations of 210,000. Within the meantime, persevering with claims fell by 34,000 to 1,834,000 on the sooner week, additionally under market expectations of 1,871,000.”

Inflation: “United States Core Inflation Price” [Trading Economics]. “The annual core client worth inflation fee in america, which excludes unstable objects comparable to meals and vitality, eased to a 2-1/2-year low of three.9% in December 2023, down from 4% within the prior month and simply above market forecasts of three.8%.”

Manufacturing: “FAA launches probe of Boeing following door plug incident” [ABC]. “The Federal Aviation Administration stated it’s conducting an investigation of Boeing after a faulty door plug fell out of an Alaska Airways airplane final week, forcing an emergency touchdown. ‘This incident ought to have by no means occurred and it can’t occur once more,’ the FAA stated in an announcement, noting it has formally notified Boeing of the probe…. The FAA stated its investigation will ‘decide if Boeing failed to make sure accomplished merchandise conformed to its permitted design and have been in a situation for protected operation in compliance with FAA laws.’ The Boeing probe is a results of the door plug incident and ‘extra discrepancies,’ the FAA stated. ‘Boeing’s manufacturing practices have to adjust to the excessive security requirements they’re legally accountable to satisfy,’ the company stated.” • Speaks will of Mayo Pete that he isn’t grandstanding this.

Enshittification: Bear in mind the “sharing financial system”?

At the moment’s Worry & Greed Index: 73 Greed (earlier shut: 74 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 73 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Jan 11 at 1:27:12 PM ET.

Class Warfare

“The Hashish Business and Labor Unions” [On Labor]. “[T]he marketplace for leisure hashish merchandise continues to achieve traction, hashish staff throughout the nation are unionizing. These organizing drives have dropped at mild the methods through which, to its staff, the hashish trade is just not all that its client model would counsel. This organizing has additionally illustrated how unions and labor regulation may be highly effective countervailing forces when employers don’t deal with their staff properly…. There are three sectors of the hashish trade. First, agricultural staff develop hashish; then, processing staff flip uncooked hashish into merchandise on the market; lastly, retail staff promote the merchandise at dispensaries. All three sectors may be difficult locations to work. The hashish cultivation sector, for starters, includes the type of business agricultural work that’s notoriously harmful, demanding, and low paying in america. And the processing of hashish materials, too, can place staff at grave danger. In a single case, fixed publicity to air full of hashish mud brought about a lady to develop bronchial asthma inside months of working at a hashish cultivation and processing facility. Tragically, in January of 2022, the 27-year-old girl suffered a deadly coronary heart assault at her workstation due to an bronchial asthma assault. The retail phase of the trade can be incomes a foul repute amongst some staff. Many ‘budtenders’ (hashish salesclerks) report encountering disorganized administration, unpredictable scheduling, and poisonous and even abusive bosses. Because the aforementioned hashish CEO acknowledged, the trade ‘doesn’t essentially have a very good observe document of treating staff very properly.’ In a placing illustration of the disillusionment that many staff really feel, 55 p.c of budtenders go away their dispensary jobs inside 12 months.”

Information of the Wired

I’m not feeling wired right this moment. Maybe tomorrow!

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