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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Affected person readers, I apologize if this Water Cooler is somewhat disjointed. Doing the workup on Abbott’s letter on immigration took a bit longer than I anticipated. Extra quickly!
Fowl Track of the Day
Pine Siskin, Brown, Indiana, United States. “Flock.”
Politics
“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are actually a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
The Constitutional Order (Rebel)
“Maine’s prime court docket dismisses an attraction of a choose’s determination on Trump’s poll standing” [Associated Press]. “Maine’s prime court docket has declined to weigh in on whether or not former President Donald Trump can keep on the state’s poll, maintaining intact a choose’s determination that the U.S. Supreme Court docket should first rule on the same case in Colorado…. In a unanimous determination on Wednesday, the Maine Supreme Judicial Court docket dismissed Bellows’ attraction of the order requiring her to await the U.S. Supreme Court docket determination earlier than withdrawing, modifying or upholding her determination to maintain Trump off the first poll on Tremendous Tuesday.”
The Constitutional Order (Invasion)
On invasion, the Structure incorporates two related texts:
Article IV, Part 4:
The US shall assure to each state on this union a republican type of authorities, and ; and on utility of the legislature, or of the manager (when the legislature can’t be convened) in opposition to home violence.
Article I, Part 10 (the “Compact Clause”):
No state shall, with out the consent of Congress, lay any responsibility of tonnage, maintain troops, or ships of battle in time of peace, enter into any settlement or compact with one other state, or with a international energy, or , or in such imminent hazard as won’t admit of delay.
What then does “invasion” imply?
“The That means of Invasion Beneath the Compact Clause of the U.S. Structure” (PDF) [Texas Public Policy Foundation]. “It ought to to start with be highlighted that, as solely , the illegal entry of individuals into the US can’t be construed as an invasion. Nor, for a similar cause, can the prospect of additional unlawful entry within the imminent future be so construed…. The phrase ‘really invaded’ within the Compact Clause refers back to the presence of flesh-and-blood enemies on the soil of the invaded state. The phrase ‘imminent hazard’ in the identical clause refers to the potential for such enemies coming to be current quickly.” • The Texas Public Coverage Basis, when you have a look at the About web page, isn’t precisely composed of bleeding coronary heart liberals.
Here’s a copy of Abbott’s assertion (thanks, Elon. Severely). I’ve helpfully highlighted and annotated the Constitutional points:
[1] Article I, Part 10 (as above).
[2] I don’t see “implementing the regulation” as related, pragmatically, as a result of Biden can have his personal legal professionals who will say they are implementing the regulation.
[3] Ditto, and to be settled by impeachment, if it involves that.
[4] Ditto.
[5] Ditto.
[6] There may be trespass, however there isn’t any “invasion,” since there’s no “enmity” (all many of the immigrants need is jobs). Therefore Article IV, Part 4 will not be triggered.
[7] The cite is to a dissenting opinion, so not related.
[8] The textual content of the Article 1, Part 10 doesn’t “reserve to this [(?)] State the best of self-defense.” That interpretation could also be within the penumbra of the textual content, however it’s not in the textual content.
[9] “Supersedes any Federal statutes” makes the border disaster a Nullification Disaster, so this matter actually is necessary, even when Abbott is reasoning from false premises. (It doesn’t assist that the Blue Cities, with their idiotic and in the end self-canceling “sanctuary” idea, have additionally been working towards Nullification.)
“”Maintain the road”: Republicans rally to Abbott’s protection in border standoff with Biden” [Texas Tribune]. “Abbott’s assertion was shortly condemned by some authorized students, who mentioned it was blatantly unconstitutional and amounted to a usurpring of the federal authorities. ‘By this logic, states might use their very own dedication that an ‘invasion’ exists as a justification for usurping management of whichever federal insurance policies they don’t like,’ Stephen Vladeck, a College of Texas at Austin regulation professor, wrote on X, previously referred to as Twitter. ‘Think about blue states taking this method: ‘We’re being invaded by medicine.’ ‘We’re being invaded by air pollution.’ The precise of states to defend themselves doesn’t, and was by no means meant to, present a hook for supplanting federal authority.” • As Andrew Jackson wrote within the earlier nullification disaster:
, and whether or not it’s fashioned by compact between the States, or in some other method, its character is similar. It’s a authorities during which all of the individuals are represented, which operates instantly on the folks individually, not upon the States–they retained all the facility they didn’t grant. However every State having expressly parted with so many powers as to represent collectively with the opposite States a single Nation, can’t from that interval possess any proper to secede, as a result of every secession doesn’t break a league, however destroys the unity of a Nation, and any harm to that unity will not be solely a breach which might consequence from the contravention of a compact, however it’s an offence in opposition to the entire Union.
* * * “Trump urges states to surge Nationwide Guard to Texas as Abbott standoff with Biden accelerates” [FOX]. “Former President Donald Trump on Thursday gave his backing to Texas Gov. Greg Abbott amid the latter’s feud with the Biden administration over border safety — urging states to ship their Nationwide Guards to the border and promising to work ‘hand in hand’ with the state to fight the ‘invasion’ if he’s inaugurated once more in January 2025. In posts to Reality Social, Trump backed Abbott and accused President Biden of ‘combating to tie the fingers’ of the Republican governor ‘in order that the Invasion [sic] continues unchecked.’ A feud that has been effervescent for months between Texas and the administration exploded in current weeks after Texas seized the Shelby Park space of Eagle Move and blocked Border Patrol from coming into — sparking protests and threats of authorized motion from the administration.” • Abbott endorsed Trump again in November 2023. Speculating freely: If Trump got here up lame — say, Trump Pressure One flew right into a cloud and all that got here out the opposite aspect was shredded aluminum and damaged glass, or the spooks one way or the other get previous his meals taster and feed him an exploding Large Mac — that many Republican voters would look with favor on Abbott in a manner they might not on DeSantis or Haley (not to mention Romney),
“Texas Defies Joe Biden By Recruiting Volunteers To Bolster Border Combat” [Newsweek]. “Texas has continued to defy President Joe Biden on the border problem and is providing money for Texas Army Division members to man the border. The Lone Star State is in search of ‘to deploy border safety property to excessive menace areas to disclaim legal organizations the power to illegally transfer medicine and folks into Texas,’* in response to TMD’s web site. This comes amid ongoing tensions between Governor Greg Abbott and the Biden administration over the border with Mexico. On Monday, the Supreme Court docket sided with the Biden administration and held that federal Border Patrol brokers had been licensed to take away the razor wire put in below Abbott’s orders close to the border metropolis of Eagle Move. Volunteers will work with the Texas Army Division full-time for as much as $55 per day, in response to the company’s web site.” • NOTE * That’s, not an “invasion?”
“Joe Biden Faces Rising Calls to Federalize Texas Nationwide Guard” [Newsweek]. “State Nationwide Guards ordinarily fall below the management of their respective governors, however they are often federalized by a mechanism referred to as Title 10 standing, which locations them on the direct disposal of the president and protection secretary, with lively responsibility officers taking on day-to-day command. In 1957, the Eisenhower administration federalized the Arkansas Nationwide Guard after the state’s governor ordered them to stop Black college students from attending the Little Rock Central Excessive College throughout the segregation period. Beneath federal management, the Arkansas Nationwide Guard, along with federal troops from the one hundred and first Airborne Division, as a substitute ensured the scholars had been in a position to attend the varsity. The Texas Nationalist Motion (TNM) is campaigning for the Lone Star State to interrupt away from the US and develop into a totally impartial nation, utilizing what it regards because the federal authorities’s failure to manage the Texan-Mexican border as one justification. If Biden does federalize the Texas Nationwide Guard, Daniel Miller, the TNM president, is urging Abbott to massively increase and militarize the Texas State Guard and deploy them to the southern border as a substitute.” • I don’t assume even John C. Calhoun advocated that…. Readers?
“Republican Governors Band Collectively, Challenge Joint Assertion Supporting Texas’ Constitutional Proper to Self-Protection” [Republican Governors Association]. “”We stand in solidarity with our fellow Governor, Greg Abbott, and the State of Texas in using each device and technique, together with razor wire fences, to safe the border. We do it partly as a result of the Biden Administration is refusing to implement immigration legal guidelines already on the books and is illegally permitting mass parole throughout America of migrants who entered our nation illegally. The authors of the U.S. Structure made clear that in instances like this, states have a proper of self-defense, below Article 4, Part 4 and Article 1, Part 10, Clause 3 of the U.S. Structure. As a result of the Biden Administration has abdicated its constitutional compact duties to the states, Texas has each authorized justification to guard the sovereignty of our states [plural] and our nation.” • In the identical manner that authorities will not be a family, a State will not be a gunhumper “standing his floor.” See dialogue above.
“The Supreme Court docket’s Silent Rulings Are More and more Troubling” [The New Republic]. “On Monday, the Supreme Court docket lifted an injunction that had blocked Border Patrol brokers from reducing via razor wire put in by Texas alongside the southern border. The transfer was a victory for the Biden administration, which claimed Texas officers had obstructed them in performing border enforcement duties. It was additionally a defeat for Texas Governor Greg Abbott and his Republican allies in Austin, who’ve aggressively opposed present border-related insurance policies. When regular circumstances are heard earlier than the court docket, there are in depth briefings and oral arguments and, finally, a written determination on the ruling. However this dispute reached the justices on the “shadow docket,” the court docket’s mechanism for reviewing stays and injunctions issued by the decrease courts. In consequence, the court docket’s announcement at this stage in Division of Homeland Safety v. Texas was perfunctory and unenlightening.”
2024
Lower than a yr to go!
* * * “Fed Fears Being Sucked Beneath a Trump Riptide” [John Authers, Bloomberg]. “A ultimate drawback issues politics and the best way it impacts each the Fed’s potential selections and the info on which they’ll be based mostly. There’s a widespread perception in markets that the FOMC will need to do all it might to avert a Trump victory in November, and subsequently lower charges before in any other case. Whether or not or not that is true, it does make it more durable to chop; Donald Trump would likely name foul, and heap derision on Jerome Powell and his colleagues. It’s solely human that they’d need to keep away from that. Politics complicates the choice and makes it a lot more durable to foretell.”
“Will politics or economics win out in 2024?” [Gillian Tett, Financial Times]. “Greg Jensen of Bridgewater, for instance, thinks traders are ‘under-discount[ing]’ the inflationary threats that would come up from any putative Donald Trump presidential victory, since Trump would in all probability appoint a compliant Federal Reserve governor, impose excessive commerce tariffs and unleash expansionary fiscal coverage. In fact, central bankers themselves aren’t allowed to think about such dangers of their fashions, or a minimum of not formally. However dangers of this kind clarify why the Davos temper music was at odds with the market pricing. And it factors to 2 key classes: first, economists of all stripes urgently want to check supply-side points, not simply demand cycles; and second, it’s good for CEOs and traders to hedge this yr. .” • Volatility!
After which there’s the labor market:
Fascinating public opinion knowledge. Although as @medleyadvisors lined right here, theres a political tradeoff however not a macro one for immigration – it has been a key issue easing supply-side constraints in a good US labor market https://t.co/QYjH9I3p8i https://t.co/e1NdWEUpMT
— Michael Redmond (@mredmond88) January 25, 2024
The chart is complicated, for the reason that x-axis will not be time, however points (“Tarriffs”, at left, “Immigration,” at proper). The chart exhibits the distinction between “broadly accepted” and “polarizing” (within the purple field).
“The Coming Working Class Election” [Ruy Teixeira, The Liberal Patriot]. “Right here is a straightforward reality: how working-class (noncollege) voters transfer will doubtless decide the result of the 2024 election. They would be the overwhelming majority of eligible voters (round two-thirds) and, even permitting for turnout patterns, solely barely much less dominant amongst precise voters (round three-fifths). Furthermore, in all six key swing states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—the working-class share of the citizens, each as eligible voters and as projected 2024 voters, shall be larger than the nationwide common. It follows that vital deterioration in working-class assist might put Biden in a really deep gap nationally and key states. Conversely, a burgeoning benefit amongst working-class voters would doubtless put Trump in a dominant place. This very pattern explains quite a bit about Biden’s present poor place on the whole election polls, the place he’s working behind Trump each nationally and in most swing states. In 2020, Biden misplaced working-class voters by 4 factors, whereas carrying college-educated voters by 18 factors. Biden would have misplaced the working class by extra (and maybe the election) if he hadn’t really carried out barely higher than Hillary Clinton amongst white working-class voters; amongst nonwhite working-class voters, particularly Hispanic voters, he did sharply worse. In present polls, we see a marked decline in Biden’s assist amongst each elements of the working-class vote with the decline amongst nonwhite working-class voters if something bigger than the decline amongst white working-class voters.” • It’s nutty to bifurcate the working class by race. Teixeira simply can’t give up id politics!
* * * Trump (R): “RNC draft decision to declare Trump as social gathering’s nominee withdrawn” [Axios]. “Republican Nationwide Committee draft decision in search of to declare former President Trump because the social gathering’s presidential nominee was withdrawn on Thursday, an individual accustomed to the matter mentioned. The withdrawal comes after Trump mentioned Thursday night that the RNC shouldn’t transfer ahead with the decision — which, if authorised, would have named him as their 2024 candidate at a time when Nikki Haley has no intention of dropping out of the race…. Trump mentioned on Reality Social Wednesday earlier than the withdrawal that whereas he significantly appreciates the RNC desirous to make him their presumptive nominee, ‘and whereas they’ve much more votes than essential to do it,’ he feels ‘for the sake of PARTY UNITY, that they need to NOT go ahead with this plan.’ He continued saying he ought to do it the ‘Previous Long-established’ manner, and end the method off AT THE BALLOT BOX.’” • Possibly Democrats might take a cue from Trump?
Trump (R): “Inside Trump’s Cutthroat Conquest of Iowa and New Hampshire” [New York Times]. “That night time, the previous president and his common coterie of prime aides had been joined by a couple of dozen Iowa staffers headed for New York, boarding the aircraft his marketing campaign calls Trump Pressure One. Not everybody was invited. Mr. Trump had misplaced Johnson County, house of the College of Iowa, by a single vote. The regional political director who had overseen the world was not given a seat on the aircraft. The following morning, in response to two folks accustomed to the matter, she was knowledgeable by a terse electronic mail from her supervisor that her contract with the Trump marketing campaign was not being renewed. It was the kind of ruthlessness the Trump staff had deployed within the prior 14 months: Win — or else.” Pour encourager les autres…. • This headline is misleading, as a result of some editor wished to make all of it about Trump, the persona who’s in all probability invaded their desires. Nonetheless, the piece, which is value studying in full, exhibits Trump on the head of a very efficient, well-organized marketing campaign.
Trump (R): “With Texas main looming, Donald Trump is driving an improved political operation” [Dallas Morning News]. “Trump’s dominance is indicative of his marketing campaign’s stout political and voter turnout operations. He’s been relentless in locking down assist in vital states, together with Texas. ‘What everybody appears to overlook is that the Republican Get together as we speak has been constructed by Trump,’ mentioned GOP political marketing consultant Matthew Langston. ‘Prefer it or not, he has had eight years within the public highlight, in order that’s an extremely highly effective power to need to go up in opposition to.’ His political machine is extra environment friendly than in his earlier presidential campaigns, when his contemporary recognition drove voters to the polls… An improved marketing campaign group has helped him preserve his standing as chief of the Republican Get together at a time when his focus is break up between working for president and coping with authorized challenges…. Texas has the second-most delegates within the main race, trailing solely California. That makes it a vital battleground within the Republican race for the White Home. Earlier than Trump solidified his front-runner standing, Texas would have served as a firewall. Now the Tremendous Tuesday contest could possibly be his coronation. Trump’s method to locking down Texas has been replicated in different states, which is why so far, he’s on observe to win the GOP presidential nomination with out a lot resistance.” • Supporting the Instances story above.
Trump (R): “The Victorious, Censorious, Malicious Donald Trump” [Frank Bruni, New York Times]. “CNN, which I occurred to be watching, went stay to Nashua and stayed with him for possibly 10 minutes, possibly much less — the brand new trend is to mete out consideration to Trump modestly, fastidiously, lest he get too large a megaphone for his lies — and but that abbreviated encounter supplied ample data.” • I just like the informal point out of “met[ing] out consideration.” Not precisely censorship, I suppose…
* * * Trump (R): “The conservative authorized world strains up behind Donald Trump on the Supreme Court docket” [CNN]. “As Donald Trump wages a Supreme Court docket battle to remain on state presidential ballots, a potent contingent of the conservative authorized world has united behind him. His new principal legal professional for the case, Jonathan Mitchell, is a former Supreme Court docket clerk related to the right-wing elite who devised the 2021 Texas abortion ban that helped result in reversal of the Roe v. Wade landmark determination. The Texas regulation, which included a shrewd mechanism impeding judicial overview, prompted liberal Justice Elena Kagan to refer disparagingly to its masterminds as ‘some geniuses.’ Additionally backing Trump, with ‘pal of the court docket’ briefs, are the Republican Nationwide Committee and GOP institution forces, equally represented by elite appellate advocates who’ve labored for the justices and converse their language. They embody former Trump Solicitor Basic Noel Francisco, George W. Bush-era authorized adviser John Yoo and different ex-clerks of conservative Justices Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas.” • Ugh, torture advocate John Yoo, now at Stanford. Naturally.
Trump (R): “Former President Donald Trump walks out of court docket throughout closing arguments of defamation trial” [Associated Press]. “Former President Donald Trump abruptly walked out on closing arguments at his defamation trial Friday as a lawyer for author E. Jean Carroll urged a jury to award her consumer a minimum of $12 million damages, saying Trump had shattered her fame and her world by unleashing a flood of hate towards her via his public statements branding her a liar…. The sudden departure prompted Decide Lewis A. Kaplan to talk up, briefly interrupting the closing argument to say: ‘The file will mirror that Mr. Trump simply rose and walked out of the courtroom.’ … Trump, who was not required to attend the civil lawsuit proceedings, had appeared agitated all morning, vigorously shaking his head as [attorney Roberta Kaplan’s] closing arguments obtained underway. The walkout occurred shortly after Roberta Kaplan mentioned: ‘Donald Trump has tried to normalize conduct that’s irregular.’” • The Norms Fairy!
* * * Haley (R): “Haley Tries to Run As Outsider in State The place She Was Governor” [Ed Kilgore, New York Magazine]. “You possibly can’t blame Haley for making an attempt to make a advantage of necessity by treating her lack of elite and in style assist in South Carolina because the product of an boastful Institution she is bravely battling, simply as she did 14 years in the past (which looks like 40 years when it comes to the modifications the Republican Get together has undergone since 2010). To a restricted extent, it’d even work. A wild card in her 2010 victory was an unsightly spate of racist and sexist feedback and rumors about her (most notably undocumented claims of extramarital sexual exercise) that bolstered her picture as a brave lady of precept combating piggy rednecks.” • These claims are documented now; the Day by day Mail printed affidavits, after which the story, oddly, dropped like a stone.
Haley (R): “Alex Castellanos: Nikki Haley “Represents A Republican Get together That Doesn’t Exist Anymore,” Donald Trump Killed It” [RealClearPolitics]. Republican strategist Alex Castellanos: “It’s a tricky state of affairs for Haley. She ran a terrific marketing campaign. And, by the best way, she is a spectacular candidate. She actually has a giant future within the Republican social gathering. However she represents a Republican social gathering that doesn’t exist anymore and that’s the Republican social gathering that’s dominated Mitch McConnell, the Washington institution, insider Republicans, and the donor class. Donald Trump killed that Republican social gathering.”
* * * Biden (D): “Might weed coverage woo younger voters again to Biden?” [Politico]. “The president has seen an alarming erosion in assist amongst younger voters in current months, with a spate of nationwide and state polls displaying him with a slender lead — and even working behind — Donald Trump with that demographic. Weed could possibly be the unlikely manner again into their hearts for Joe Biden. It’s no small matter for Democrats as a result of younger voters are a vital a part of any profitable coalition: Biden crushed Trump by 24 factors amongst voters below the age of 30 in 2020, in response to exit polls. A current nationwide ballot exhibits that younger voters overwhelmingly assist Biden’s strikes to loosen federal marijuana restrictions. A whopping 65 % of 18- to 25-year-old doubtless voters expressed assist for the administration’s current suggestion to maneuver marijuana to a much less stringent classification below federal regulation, in comparison with simply 14 % who indicated opposition. Veteran Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, whose agency performed the survey, argues that the problem might assist woo again younger voters who’ve grown disaffected with Biden, significantly over his unwavering assist for Israel for the reason that outbreak of the Gaza battle.” • Why putz round? Why not simply take marijuana off Schedule
51?* * * RFK, Jr. (I): “Democratic issues develop amid RFK Jr. poll push in battleground states” [The Hill]. “Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s announcement Tuesday that he had amassed sufficient signatures to qualify for the New Hampshire poll for the overall election, after already getting on Utah’s, is drawing contemporary concern from Democrats over how he might remodel the race… The spoiler principle — that there’s one other probably deadly power lurking, within the type of Kennedy — has been minimized within the discourse, a minimum of publicly, as Biden seems to be to challenge confidence as voting commences. That hasn’t stopped Kennedy from making an attempt to play his playing cards properly. He has taken the weird step of producing a completely new social gathering as a option to circumvent poll signature necessities for impartial candidates in states with more durable benchmarks to fulfill than New Hampshire, which solely wants 3,000 signatures. In accordance with a launch despatched by his marketing campaign earlier this month, the trouble, dubbed the ‘We The Folks’ social gathering, is displaying that Kennedy can get on ballots in Biden’s house state of Delaware, the reliably Democratic California and Hawaii, in addition to North Carolina and Mississippi. His marketing campaign mentioned it additionally created the same social gathering in Texas, on Democrats’ want listing every cycle, below the identify the ‘Texas Unbiased Get together.’” • Useful map:
I’ve asterisked the swing states the place RFK, Jr. has a poll entry effort below manner: *Arizona, *Georgia, Michigan, *Nevada, *North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
* * *
Republican Funhouse
“Trump Privately Pressuring GOP Senators To ‘Kill’ Border Deal To Deny Biden A Win” [HuffPo]. “‘Trump needs them to kill it as a result of he doesn’t need Biden to have a victory,’ mentioned the supply. ‘He advised them he’ll repair the border when he’s president… He mentioned he solely needs the right deal.’” Believable, however single-sourced. Extra: “Trump’s meddling generated an “emotional” dialogue in a closed door assembly between Senate Republicans on Wednesday, as senators vented their frustrations for hours in regards to the largely secret negotiations over emergency support for Ukraine, Israel and immigration. The convention is splintering into two camps: those that consider Republicans ought to take the deal, and those that are opposed at any value.” • It may additionally be that Trump doesn’t need cash to go to Ukraine.
“U.S. Senate Republicans insist they received’t bow to Trump calls for to give up immigration talks” [Missouri Independent]. “Regardless of the push from Trump to quash the talks, some Senate Republicans mentioned that they’ve an obligation to handle the Southern border. GOP Texas Sen. John Cornyn, who endorsed Trump earlier this week, mentioned that ‘Texas can’t afford to attend 11 months,’ referring to a possible second Trump presidency in 2025. ‘Some folks have mentioned, properly, the (immigration) problem goes to go away, and in order that’ll be denying President Trump the problem. I believe that’s a fantasy,’ Cornyn mentioned. ‘You’re not going to show off what’s occurring on the border like a water faucet, so that is going to proceed to be an issue and it’s clearly a really, potent, political problem.’ He mentioned that whereas Trump is ‘an necessary voice,’ the Senate ‘has a job to do, and we intend to do it.’ Lankford echoed the identical sentiments, and expressed doubt that Republicans would be capable to get substantial immigration coverage carried out below a second time period with Trump as a result of ‘we tried to do some immigration work whereas President Trump was president (and) Democrats wouldn’t be a part of us in that dialog, and I’m undecided that they might within the subsequent administration in that point interval as properly.’”
Democrats en Déshabillé
“Willie Brown’s Previous Garments Now On Sale By way of Goodwill Within the ‘Willie Brown Assortment’” [SFist]. “We child you not, former SF mayor Willie Brown is now promoting his garments on Goodwill, and you may personal Da Mayor’s outdated garments. There aren’t any fedoras on sale, however you should buy one in every of his puffy Patagonia vests, and… his outdated coat hangers?…. It’s referred to as the Willie Brown Assortment, however the garments aren’t on the market on the rack at your native Goodwill. They’re up for bid on eBay. And eBay is a fairly customary platform for charitable bidding fundraisers…. That is apparently not the primary time Willie Brown has bought a few of his outdated garments in a Goodwill fundraiser — he did it again in 2021 as properly. So possibly this newest batch of things simply doesn’t match anymore, or possibly his new sidepiece doesn’t like them. So sure it’s nice that Willie Brown is doing a charitable flip for Goodwill, however he’s nonetheless no angel. Shortly after President Biden took workplace, , and apparently that’s what Brown is doing today. In San Francisco, that’s the form of factor that burn plenty of good will.” • What?! Discuss burying the lead!
Realignment and Legitimacy
“Demiocracy, Chapter 5: Historical past’s Hints — The Venetian Republic’s Electoral Procedures” [Equality by Lot]. “[In Venice,] to stop tensions between the ruling households, sortition was launched as manner of appointing a brand new doge, however with the intention to guarantee solely a reliable particular person might develop into ruler, the process was mixed with elections. The consequence was an unbelievably roundabout system that passed off in ten phases over a interval of 5 days…. The Venetian system appears absurdly cumbersome, however lately a number of laptop scientists have proven that this chief election protocol is attention-grabbing in that it ensured the extra in style candidates really received, whereas nonetheless giving minorities an opportunity and neutralizing corrupt voting habits. Moreover, it helped to carry compromise candidates to the fore by amplifying small benefits…. In any case, historians agree, that the extraordinary, lasting stability of the Venetian republic, which endured greater than 5 centuries, till ended by Napoleon, could be attributed partly to the ingenious number of ballotte. With out sortition the republic would undoubtedly have fallen prey far sooner to disputes between ruling households.” • The argument could be that this didn’t scale, but when we had extra subsidiarity?
#COVID19
“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the tackle given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reviews); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep secure on the market!
Covid is Airborne
Right here is one view of Far-UV:
The estimable Naomi Wu takes problem with it right here; the entire thread is value studying:
To make clear a number of things- no real-world Far-UVC set up has ever been discovered to exceed NIOSH or OSHA ozone limits. These limits have been in place for many years, and if they’re unsafe- that’s not a Far-UVC problem. That is a matter that can require an enormous overhaul of the…
— Nukit (@NukitToBeSure) January 25, 2024
Undecided the place I come out on this (besides I actually fear about companies screwing a blue bulb right into a high-up socket and calling it good). However the dialogue is fruitful. The airborne group on the Twitter stays among the finest round.
Sequelae
“Lengthy COVID is related to extreme cognitive slowing: a multicentre cross-sectional examine” [The Lancet]. From the Summary: “We recognized pronounced cognitive slowing in sufferers with PCC, which distinguished them from age-matched wholesome people who beforehand had symptomatic COVID-19 however didn’t manifest PCC. … Collectively, these outcomes robustly exhibit pronounced cognitive slowing in folks with PCC, which distinguishes them from age-matched wholesome people who beforehand had symptomatic COVID-19 however didn’t manifest PCC. This is perhaps an necessary issue contributing to among the cognitive impairments reported in sufferers with PCC.” • Yikes! Yesterday, Tom Stone requested:
Has Covid had an impact on People that encourages dangerous and excessive habits?
Driving is noticeably worse for the reason that pandemic hit and the extremists look like extra excessive than previously whereas the deranged ( Nuland Et Al) are behaving in an much more deranged method than they’ve beforehand.
There’s plenty of anecdotal proof like this on the Twitter. However this text, to my thoughts, lends it actual backing (I understand that cognitive slowing isn’t, say, highway rage per se, however one can actually see imcomprehensibly misplaced capacities as a set off.)
Elite Maleficence
How odd to characterize those that with to challenge others and themselves from an asymptomatic, airborne, Stage Three Biobazard as a “cult” (though, to be honest, little question the Romans felt the identical in regards to the Christians):
I gave you a vetted library of scientific research via PubMed of properly over 5,000 papers on masks (and I take advantage of the time period colloquially to explain N95s and different well-fitted respirators). If that is an excessive amount of for you, I am glad to spoon-feed you. Pull up a straightforward chair, chill out + study. https://t.co/kKh0rjySCR
— Joaquín Beltrán for Congress #FreePalestine (@joaquinlife) January 26, 2024
For Dore and his ilk, the phrase “dying cult” involves thoughts, I believe with extra cause.
Joe, Jeff, Ashish, Mandy, good job:
The nation was promised that science could be adopted. However we’re doing the precise reverse of science and nonetheless having surges of over 100 million folks, nonetheless killing 1-2,000 folks every week, disabling thousands and thousands.
— Scott Squires (@scott_squires) January 25, 2024
WHO sabotages search on “airborne” and “aerosol”:
The World Well being Group is considering a substitute time period for ‘Airborne’—what are your ideas on ‘Inhalable Respiratory Particle’? https://t.co/tWFmMeA4Er
— Dalia Hasan (@DaliaHasanMD) January 25, 2024
“Inhalable Respiratory Particles unfold like smoke.” Has a pleasant ring to it!
TABLE 1: Day by day Covid Charts
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new as we speak; all others aren’t up to date.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] Even after a decline, we’re nonetheless larger than any of the surges below Trump.
[2] Steep decline within the Northeast!
[3] “As of Might 11, genomic surveillance knowledge shall be reported biweekly, based mostly on the supply of optimistic check specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice every week; semiweekly.” Appears like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.
[4] “Charts and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous yr, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not your complete pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “identical to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is suitable for eachMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these folks a lot. Discover additionally that this chart exhibits, a minimum of for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, despite the fact that CDC is making an attempt to get us to consider that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the prevailing institutional equipment for injections. And naturally, we’re not even stepping into the standard of the wastewater websites that we now have as a proxy for Covid an infection total.
[5] Lower for the town aligns with wastewater knowledge.
[6] “Maps, charts, and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”.
[7] -0.7%. (It might be attention-grabbing to survey this inhabitants usually; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and massive peer stress, went and obtained examined anyhow.)
[8] Lambert right here: Share and absolute numbers down.
[9] Up, albeit within the rear view mirror.
Stats Watch
Inflation: “United States PCE Worth Index Month-to-month Change” [Trading Economics]. “The non-public consumption expenditure value index within the US elevated 0.2% month-over-month in December 2023, according to market expectations, and following a 0.1% drop in November. It’s the first improve in PCE costs in three months.”
Right now’s Worry & Greed Index: 76 Excessive Greed (earlier shut: 77 Excessive Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 70 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Jan 26 at 1:54:35 PM ET
Information of the Wired
“Dana-Farber retractions: meet the blogger who noticed issues in dozens of most cancers papers” (interview) [Nature]. “The celebrated Dana-Farber Most cancers Institute (DFCI) in Boston, Massachusetts, acknowledged this week that it might search retractions for six papers and corrections for a further 31 — some co-authored by DFCI chief government Laurie Glimcher, chief working officer William Hahn and a number of other different outstanding most cancers researchers. The information got here after scientific-image sleuth Sholto David posted his issues about greater than 50 manuscripts to a weblog on 2 January.” And: “You lately left your 2,000th touch upon PubPeer. What retains you coming again? [DAVID:] I benefit from the ridiculous backwards and forwards with the authors over e-mail. I care quite a bit in regards to the animals [that are killed for life-sciences experiments] as properly. The extent of expectation we should always have once we’re coping with animals and high-profile establishments is that they’re tremendous cautious and that they get issues proper, so it’s irritating if you see errors.” • See, we can make a distinction!
Contact data for crops: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a examine if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photos of crops. Greens are superb! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you need your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it firstly of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From CW:
From Alaska. CW sends us an image of beautiful snow-covered timber, plus a moose. Moose are large, in order that snow is deep!
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