It may appear late to debate the Swiss-hosted Ukraine peace summit that happened on June 15-16. Nonetheless, it’s value looking again on the intriguing Thai participation, which has been simple to lose sight of amidst Thailand’s flurry of vital home political happenings.
An article printed by Thai PBS final Friday pointed to a “peculiar state of affairs that no person desires to interpret an excessive amount of and too quickly,” of Thailand’s choice to affix the completely pro-Ukraine summit, from which Russia was excluded, regardless of it being an lively participant within the conflict, however then to chorus from endorsing the ultimate joint communique. Past reiterating the United Nations Basic Meeting (UNGA) resolutions condemning Russian aggression, the communique known as for the restoration of Ukrainian management over the Zaporizhzhia nuclear energy plant and seaports within the Black and Azov seas, together with the alternate of all prisoners of conflict.
The article in query, penned by veteran Thai journalist Tulsathit Taptim, went on to take a position that Thailand, in mild of its official bid to affix the BRICS groupings, probably wished to please Russia, the rotating chair of BRICS. Tulsathit’s hypothesis is convincing. It couldn’t have been by mere probability that on the identical weekend because the peace summit on the Swiss resort of Bürgenstock, the chief of Thailand’s ruling Pheu Thai occasion, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, led a Thai delegation to the “BRICS and Companion-International locations (BRICS+)” discussion board in Vladivostok. Extra essentially, financial pursuits are central in Thailand’s overseas coverage agenda beneath the present civilian-led Srettha Thavisin administration. Then there’s the truth that most nations that rejected the Bürgenstock communique have been BRICS members.
Such “diplomatic flirting,” as Tulsathit termed it, isn’t a primary for Thailand. On the UNGA in 2022, Thailand went from deploring Russia’s actions in March to abstaining from the October decision denouncing the Russian annexation of 4 Ukrainian areas. This roller-coaster voting was virtually undisputedly motivated by the Thai authorities’s short-term (and in the end failed) purpose of securing Russian President Vladimir Putin’s attendance at that yr’s Bangkok-hosted Asia-Pacific Financial Cooperation leaders’ summit.
However that sorry episode on the UNGA occurred beneath the watch of the military-backed Prayut Chan-o-cha authorities. The Srettha authorities, with its “smooth energy” obsession, apparently cares extra about Thailand’s worldwide picture. This, in flip, begs a query: Why would Thailand danger inviting additional accusations of overseas coverage inconsistency by doing what it did on the Ukraine summit?
Thailand may’ve arguably stored each Russia (and by extension, its strategic ally China) and the West content material sufficient by skipping the Ukraine summit. There was no obligation to affix within the first place, and lacking it wouldn’t have been thought-about too scandalous for 2 causes. First, not all Southeast Asian nations have been anticipated to ship a delegation. Certainly, greater than half of the members of the Affiliation of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) didn’t present up, and there was a poor degree of illustration amongst those that did attend.
Second, given Thailand’s cordial relations with all sides and its lack of exterior adversaries extra usually, Thai leaders – maybe greater than any of their ASEAN counterparts – have been delicate about displaying a choice for any explicit energy bloc. This has at occasions resulted in Thailand donning the invisible cloak to keep away from inviting issues, as seen in its absolute silence on the Australia-United Kingdom-United States (AUKUS) safety pact. Reasonably than selecting sides, non-attendance on the Ukraine summit would have been regarded kind of as one other occasion of Thailand placing on its invisible cloak.
To curb the simplistic black-and-white narrative that Thailand is departing from the U.S.-led Western worldwide order by searching for to affix BRICS, Thai officers may have merely cited Bangkok’s simultaneous pursuit of Group for Financial Cooperation and Improvement membership and ongoing engagement in initiatives just like the Indo-Pacific Financial Framework for instance its balanced posture.
The assumptions above recommend that Thailand’s presence on the Bürgenstock gathering was extra than simply one other clumsy dance between the 2 geopolitical blocs. If I’m not mistaken and overanalyzing, Thailand additionally sought to subtly counter the fashionable and loud criticism that its overseas coverage is excessively passive and reactive.
Thailand’s consultant, Vice Overseas Minister Russ Jalichandra, is called “the Various Ambassador” for his unorthodox follow of creating frank (and generally controversial) feedback on home and worldwide developments. Dispatching such a powerful character to Bürgenstock might have mirrored Thailand’s rising resolve to grow to be extra proactive and assertive in worldwide affairs.
Russ’ sole give attention to the difficulty of meals safety in his remarks was not solely attributable to its comparatively uncontentious nature and inclusivity (the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which Russia was part of, was particularly talked about), but additionally as a result of it was a good terrain for Thailand, given the dominion’s power as a key international meals producer.
Lastly, by disassociating from the communique, Thailand demonstrated that it’s not mindlessly “bending with the wind” and can reject something deemed incompatible with its pursuits, which on this case are financial alternatives.
The place is Thailand’s overseas coverage headed? Aside from placing a steadiness between its long-cherished bamboo diplomacy – characterised by pragmatism and suppleness – and a proactive, assertive strategy to safeguarding its pursuits, Thailand seems to be exploring a “third path.” Thai Protection Minister Sutin Klungsang provided a glimpse of this on the twenty first Shangri-La Dialogue earlier this month, when he highlighted Thailand’s aspiration to behave as a mediator and work with all events to handle frequent safety challenges, particularly these past the army area, together with financial safety, meals safety and public well being.
Whereas Thailand’s notion of a overseas coverage third path could also be underestimated as we speak, its relevance might emerge when circumstances enable.