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A promising offensive prospect cratering again to Earth has change into the St. Louis Cardinals’ model of Anchorman’s pancake breakfast: They do it yearly. Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson each confirmed indicators of doubtless being long-term options to two-thirds of the Crimson Birds’ outfield a season in the past, and up to now this 12 months neither appears to know that the lockout is over.
O’Neill crushed the ball final 12 months, slugging .560 — good for ninth in all of baseball — and ending with 34 homers and 80 RBIs in 141 video games. Once you put collectively that sort of season, and meld it along with his thirst-inducing biceps, it will get followers extraordinarily sizzling and intensely bothered. And I’m not speaking about St. Louis-sweat-when-you-step-outside-in-the-summer sizzling, I’m speaking shifting-in-your-seat-trying-to-think-about-anything-else sizzling.
These desires are significantly much less erotic now given O’Neill’s gradual begin. He’s seeing much less fastballs this 12 months, and in flip struggling to duplicate his energy numbers. His .333 slugging proportion isn’t within the prime 10 and even the highest 100 for that matter.
I wouldn’t fairly describe Carlson’s 2021 season as lust-worthy. Hitting .266, with 18 homers and 65 RBIs isn’t setting anybody’s loins ablaze, however he wasn’t “As many doubles as RBIs (4) in 23 video games” dangerous. If not for Nolan Arenado’s Participant of the Month efficiency in April, St. Louis’ offensive malaise can be a bigger matter of dialog outdoors of Missouri.
Once you add up the drop-offs in batting averages from this 12 months to final 12 months between O’Neill (down .84), Carlson (down .80), and Paul DeJong (down .70), you get a complete lower of .234. That cumulative lower in averages is larger than what any of these three gamers are at present hitting (.202, .186, and .127 respectively). My complicated model of analytics apart, there’s no present iteration of this crew that’s in a position to overcome the hitting woes which have plagued their postseasons for years now.
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DeJong is the poster boy for regression, as his batting common has dropped every of his six seasons since getting into the league save for the COVID-shortened 2020 season.
It’s early, and St. Louis is fortunate to be 14-10 and tied for fifth in run differential regardless of having the seventeenth finest offense within the MLB. Should you’re a Cardinals fan like myself, you realize all too nicely the sensation of hopelessness that instantly units in when it’s obvious an opposing pitcher is dealing.
All hope of scoring falls to Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt, who’re each incredible, however like several nice hitter, they want assist within the lineup. It might be karma catching as much as the Cardinals for all these years of Crimson Satan Magic, or it might be a difficulty with growth, one which I’ve screamed about earlier than on this web site.
Maybe, O’Neill and Carlson are mired in more and more much less minor slumps. Or they’re a part of a development of good-yet-stagnating expertise that’s change into the norm for St. Louis’ farm system. I discussed O’Neill, Carlson, and DeJong, however Kolten Wong by no means hit the height GM John Mozeliak promised. Randal Grichuk’s two most efficient seasons got here after he was traded away. I’ll give St. Louis a go on Aledmys Diaz as a result of he wasn’t a staple in Houston’s lineup the previous few years. Having mentioned that, Diaz had as many RBIs (45) final 12 months because the man who changed him at shortstop, and he performed in 29 fewer video games and had 83 fewer plate appearances than DeJong, as nicely.
I like Tommy Edman and Harrison Bader, too, however any offensive manufacturing from them is a bonus. Playing cards’ followers have been restlessly checking their watches for years, ready for the subsequent Albert Pujols who was promised to emerge. And re-signing the past-his-prime free agent slugger isn’t what anybody had in thoughts, neither is it going to fill the necessity. If something, the addition of the DH to the NL has solely proven a brighter highlight on the crew’s deficiencies.
I’ll skip the pitching portion of this ‘What the fuck is going on to the Cardinal’s prospects?” piece as a result of their downfalls have largely been as a result of harm, and pitching hasn’t been the explanation for the crew’s postseason failures. Should you’re in search of an answer, it’s possible not coming from supervisor Olivier Marmol. It’s not his fault the crew retains hiring from inside and ignoring regardless of the hell is occurring with its homegrown hitters nosediving after being scouted for a 12 months or two.
Is hitting coach Jeff Albert, who was retained from fired-manager Mike Shildt’s employees, simply urgent play/pause on the sport tape and telling his guys to maintain their eye on the ball? It could clarify loads.
Mozeliak’s acquisitions of Goldschmidt and Arenado have been nice, and he must be applauded for fleecing these franchises. St. Louis can’t anticipate to win a title by benefiting from dysfunctional organizations, although, they usually can’t win by throwing buckets of cash at free brokers, both.
I do know it’s early, and there’s nonetheless loads of time for O’Neill and Carlson to bust out of their slumps. In the event that they do, it’ll break with current custom, however I don’t assume Cardinal followers would take subject with that as a lot as Champ Form took subject with Ron Burgundy skipping out on just a few flapjacks.
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