2:00PM Water Cooler 8/22/2022 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Hen Track of the Day

Loria’s Satinbird, Papua New Guinea. There may be precisely one recording of Loria’s Satinbird, from 1993. Right here it’s! (I feel there’s a waterfall within the background.)

Politics

“However what’s authorities itself, however the biggest of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51

“They’d realized nothing, and forgotten nothing.” –Charles Maurice de Talleyrand-Périgord

“Right here’s meals for thought, had Ahab time to suppose; however Ahab by no means thinks; he solely feels, feels, feels” –Herman Melville, Moby Dick

Biden Administration

“Will anti-vaccine activism within the USA reverse world targets?” [ABC News]. “First woman Jill Biden left COVID-19 isolation on Sunday after twice testing adverse for the coronavirus and reunited with President Joe Biden at their Delaware seashore residence.” • Actually? She couldn’t simply return to the White Home after 5 days? Why?

2022

* * *

“Might Democrats Actually Pull Off a Miracle in November?” (interview) [Amy Cook, New York Magazine]. “The president’s not rather more common than earlier than. The economic system is best, but it surely’s nonetheless not nice. Are individuals extra optimistic? What I’m actually going to be awaiting in these subsequent couple of months will not be whether or not voters suppose the economic system has abruptly recovered or that every thing’s superior however whether or not Individuals are extra optimistic. I feel it helps Democrats if there’s a way that issues are a minimum of headed in the suitable route and that they’ve one thing to promote to voters — to say, ‘We’re truly doing one thing. We’re taking this critically. We’re centered on the issues that folks care about.’” • Ha. Zeitgeist watch! (Walter’s no dummy, so that is fascinating.) And the identical in a unique venue, earlier–

“Vibe Shift” [Amy Walter, Cook Political Report]. “Will the drop in gasoline costs, favorable media protection of the just lately handed Inflation Discount Act, and a laser-like concentrate on promoting the preferred parts of that new legislation, persuade sufficient voters that Democrats are certainly ‘on their facet’? Or, will Republican advertisements that hyperlink persistently excessive costs on the grocery retailer and gasoline pump to Democratic coverage selections, be more practical? Earlier this week, I used to be capable of see how this match-up of messages may play out with voters this fall. At a spotlight group of white male swing voters, the moderator introduced a listing of Democratic accomplishments, together with issues just like the infrastructure invoice, the Restoration Act, and, in fact, the newly handed Inflation Discount Act. Additionally famous had been low unemployment and powerful job development. When requested to reply, a person from Georgia replied, ‘I don’t disagree with something right here. However, I’m paying double for lumber and groceries than I used to be three years in the past.’”

“‘It’s a rip-off’: GOP spending beneath hearth as Senate hopefuls search rescue” [WaPo]. “Republican Senate hopefuls are getting crushed on airwaves throughout the nation whereas their nationwide marketing campaign fund is pulling advertisements and working low on money — main some marketing campaign advisers to ask the place all the cash went and to demand an audit of the committee’s funds, in keeping with Republican strategists concerned within the discussions. In a extremely uncommon transfer, the Nationwide Republican Senatorial Committee this week canceled bookings price about $10 million, together with within the essential states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Arizona. A spokesman stated the NRSC will not be abandoning these races however prioritizing advert spots which can be shared with campaigns and profit from discounted charges. Nonetheless, the cancellations forfeit cheaper costs that got here from reserving early, and higher budgeting might have lined each. ‘The truth that they canceled these reservations was an enormous downside — you may’t get them again,’ stated one Senate Republican strategist, who like others spoke on the situation of anonymity to debate inner issues. ‘You may’t win elections in the event you don’t have cash to run advertisements.’” • Sadly. Personallly, I’d abolish all digital political promoting to drive the events to interact solely on the bottom (and thru native print media. Ah properly, nevertheles…). See beneath at “An Uncommon $1.6 Billion Donation Bolsters Conservatives.” Which will assist.

* * *

PA: “Mehmet Oz’s new hometown is a non-public, non secular neighborhood the place opinions on him are break up” [Philadelphia Inquirer]. “Lisa Oz’s mom is a minister with the Conference Church, a department of the [Swedenborgian] New Church, and her great-grandfather helped construct the cathedral [in Oz’s adopted town, Bryn Athyn]. Her mom is a member of the Asplundh household, one in every of a number of extremely profitable households on the town. The household’s tree enterprise, Asplundh Tree Skilled LLC, is likely one of the largest U.S. corporations, with 34,000 staff and a few $5 billion in income. The corporate is owned by about 200 Asplundh relations, who collectively are price about $3 billion — and several other have contributed generously to Oz’s marketing campaign.” • American gentry! However again to Oz’s residency: “Jeremy Finkeldey, who lives down the highway from the house the Ozes purchased, sees the relocation as a political transfer that may not be everlasting. ‘Oz has by no means lived in Bryn Athyn,’ Finkeldey stated. ‘He married right into a Bryn Athyn household and after he determined to run for our Senate seat vacated by Toomey, he purchased Michael Pitcairn’s previous place … and put up two Oz indicators on the finish of the driveway.’ Oz doesn’t at the moment reside within the residence, which he’s stated nonetheless wants renovations. To this point, no building permits have been filed in Decrease Moreland.” • Hmm.

PA: Ouch:

[room of political consultants who make $300K a year debating how to respond to allegations that dr. oz’s set contained a closet of human organs] initially it’s actually extra of a walk-in étagère

— soul nate (@MNateShyamalan) August 19, 2022

One factor I’m actually having fun with about Fetterman vs. Oz — and Fetterman had higher bear in mind it’s not even Labor Day but — is that the snark is so usually genuinely humorous. It brings again happier, extra harmless occasions.

PA: “To help working Pennsylvanians, we have to maintain Washington accountable” [John Fetterman, Times-Leader]. “[W]hile my opponent, Dr. Oz, has been attempting to familiarize himself along with his new state — and, apparently, with grocery shops — I’ve been placing in work, speaking to individuals throughout the commonwealth, and arising with a plan that may enhance the lives of working Pennsylvanians. Step one of preventing inflation and bringing prices down begins with making extra stuff proper right here in America and bringing jobs residence. As a result of for too lengthy, out-of-touch politicians in Washington have offered out individuals on manufacturing unit flooring to profit their associates in company boardrooms, passing dangerous commerce offers which have despatched hundreds of good-paying jobs abroad. We’ll deliver again American manufacturing by punishing the businesses that ship jobs abroad, strengthening ‘Purchase American’ necessities for corporations that do enterprise with the federal authorities, and mandating that corporations we purchase from make their merchandise proper right here at residence. And whereas we’re at it, we should always crack down on corporations that falsely declare their merchandise are made right here and punish them for ripping off and deceptive the American individuals. If we make extra stuff right here in America, costs gained’t spike each time there’s an issue abroad. We don’t should be outsourcing any extra jobs and manufacturing to China, whereas making inflation worse. However with regards to bringing prices down for working Pennsylvanians, we are able to’t finish there. It’s time we crack down on the massive, value gouging firms which can be making file income whereas jacking up costs for all of us.”

2024

“Trump pushes for un-redacted affidavit’s launch, regardless of the dangers” [The Hill]. “Former President Trump is pushing for the total, unredacted launch of the affidavit that led to the search warrant for his Mar-a-Lago property, a transfer that carries dangers for each Trump and the Justice Division. ‘Pres. Trump has made his view clear that the American individuals must be permitted to see the unredacted affidavit associated to the raid and break-in of his residence,’ Taylor Budowich, a spokesperson for the previous president, stated Thursday after Federal Justice of the Peace Decide Bruce Reinhart stated he could also be prepared to unseal parts of the doc. Reinhart ordered Justice Division officers to recommend redactions to the doc by subsequent Thursday. ‘At the moment, Justice of the Peace Decide Reinhard rejected the DOJ’s [Justice Department’s] cynical try to cover the entire affidavit from Individuals,’ Budowich continued. ‘Nonetheless, no redactions must be mandatory and the entire affidavit must be launched, given the Democrats’ penchant for utilizing redactions to cover authorities corruption, similar to they did with the Russia hoax.’”

Republican Funhouse

“An Uncommon $1.6 Billion Donation Bolsters Conservatives” [New York Times]. “A brand new conservative nonprofit group scored a $1.6 billion windfall final 12 months by way of a little-known donor — a unprecedented sum that would give Republicans and their causes an enormous monetary increase forward of the midterms, and for years to return. The supply of the cash was Barre Seid, an electronics manufacturing mogul, and the donation is among the many largest — if not the most important — single contributions ever made to a politically centered nonprofit. The beneficiary is a brand new political group managed by Leonard A. Leo, an activist who has used his connections to Republican donors and politicians to assist engineer the conservative dominance of the Supreme Court docket and to finance battles over abortion rights, voting guidelines and local weather change coverage. This windfall will assist cement Mr. Leo’s standing as a kingmaker in conservative huge cash politics…. For perspective, the $1.6 billion that the Marble belief reaped from the sale is barely greater than the full of $1.5 billion spent in 2020 by 15 of essentially the most politically energetic nonprofit organizations that usually align with Democrats.” • As soon as once more, Democrat layers of indirection vs. Republican simplicity and directness.

MTG asking for my vote once more:

“Oh, yeah.” Marjorie Taylor Greene confirms she’s a “machine gal,” somebody who desires to get rid of voting machines. pic.twitter.com/r1GCnrljpY

— PatriotTakes 🇺🇸 (@patriottakes) August 22, 2022

I can simply barely see digital tabulators. However ballots? No. The Democrat place on hand-marked paper ballots is disgraceful.

Democrats en Déshabillé

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Social gathering (“the Democrat Social gathering is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated put up, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “reside” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Social gathering is, actually, a tough downside. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the way in which again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Social gathering is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Social gathering didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” in fact.) Second, all of the working elements of the Social gathering reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between parts of the Social gathering (ka-ching, however not solely) these parts comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence neighborhood.

Observe, in fact, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different courses; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

Realignment and Legitimacy

Attention-grabbing idea, however portraits are painted by the winners:

Let’s begin with the English Civil Conflict. Right here now we have Prince Rupert, Charles I, the loss of life masks of Oliver Cromwell, and John Pym. Present a baby these photos, and ask who they suppose the nice guys are, and the kid will say the extra good-looking royalists! His instincts aren’t flawed. pic.twitter.com/GPgydR2rqE

— Arthur Bloom 🇺🇸 (@j_arthur_bloom) August 20, 2022

Counter-example:

Joey Metal was fairly the hottie, no query….

* * *

However socialism:

Typically the govt. does such job offering a service that folks neglect it’s the govt. doing the job, and none dare name it socialism. Medicare & FDIC rely however my favourite instance is GPS, which everybody on the planet makes use of every single day whereas by no means questioning who supplies it. pic.twitter.com/2IB22hqb3a

— Carlos Mucha (@mucha_carlos) August 21, 2022

#COVID19

• “Fauci, prime infectious illness knowledgeable, to retire in December” [Associated Press]. That’s a rattling disgrace. “Fauci discovered himself marginalized by the Trump administration, more and more saved out of main selections in regards to the federal response, however he continued to talk out publicly in media interviews, advocating social distancing and face coverings in public settings earlier than the rollout of the COVID-19 vaccines.” • What a whitewash. Fauci’s noble lies on masking (not “poor messaging,” however mendacity) had been the primary apparent step within the catastrophic destruction of belief in public well being (though maybe we should always not have been shocked).

• ”Assertion by Anthony S. Fauci, M.D.” (press launch) [NIH]. “Whereas I’m transferring on from my present positions, I’m not retiring. After greater than 50 years of presidency service, I plan to pursue the subsequent section of my profession whereas I nonetheless have a lot power and keenness for my discipline. I wish to use what I’ve realized as NIAID Director to proceed to advance science and public well being and to encourage and mentor the subsequent technology of scientific leaders as they assist put together the world to face future infectious illness threats.” • MSNBC slot?

• Trump weighs in:

A refreshing lack of sycophancy…..

• That is completely terrific. Please distribute extensively:

This must be within the fingers of anybody who attends a college board assembly, or encounters resistance from the executive layer on fixing air flow points. You’d suppose there’d be one thing as easy, compact, and highly effective as this on the Facilities for Illness, however who am I kidding?

• ”Tip of the iceberg: erectile dysfunction and COVID-19″ [Nature]. We did run this again in February when it appeared, however for the bros: “Present proof illuminates endothelial dysfunction, direct testicular injury, and the psychological burden of COVID-19 which can be of the pathways of ED. Though the proposed underlying mechanisms partly fail to reply the questions by which COVID-19 results in ED, you will need to monitor males who recovered from COVID-19 concerning the sexual dysfunction sequelae of an infection and handle the lengthy‐time period penalties.” • Let me understand how the “monitoring” works out. However. You’d suppose Pfizer (ahem) might climb up the worth chain and collectively a advertising and marketing marketing campaign on this. Too quickly?

• Maskstravaganza, as extra PMCs intentionally create superspreading occasions:

• Extra on #ISME18:

• And this screencap:

• “Convention organiser” = hegemonic PMC, known as out by an distinctive PMC:

• Extra on

• Maskstravaganza:

Hopefully those that would favor to not put on Darth Vader-style respirators to subsequent 12 months’s DEFCON gained’t need to, for the reason that gross irresponsibility exhibited at #ISME18 gained’t proceed.

• ”With or with out you?” [Pandemic]. “Nations with massive populations have the potential to considerably distort how we see the severity of the pandemic world wide. Contemplating the pandemic efficiency of the US, China, India and Ethiopia, we assess how these inhabitants outliers have an effect on common mortality charges by World Financial institution revenue group. Because it seems, the rankings of pandemic severity are utterly upset. Excessive-income international locations, which have sone of the best aged shares, haven’t been affected essentially the most throughout this pandemic; paradoxically, as soon as we exclude the US, they’re more likely to have been affected the least.” • One other means of claiming that is that the USA, regardless of its excessive revenue, has Third World-level efficiency that’s bringing down the curve for the opposite excessive revenue international locations.

Should you missed it, right here’s a put up on my queasiness with CDC numbers, particularly case rely, which I (nonetheless) think about most necessary, regardless of what Walensky’s psychos at CDC who invented “neighborhood ranges” suppose. However these are the numbers now we have.

Case Rely

Case rely for the USA:

However look ahead to the regional tales…

Instances are undercounted, one supply saying by an element of six, Gottlieb considering we solely choose up one in seven or eight.) Therefore, I take the nominal case rely and multiply it by six to approximate the true degree of circumstances, and draw the DNC-blue “Biden Line” at that time. The earlier rely was ~93,500. At the moment, it’s ~101,000 and 101,000 * 6 = a Biden line at 606,000 per day. (Bear in mind these knowledge factors are weekly averages, so day by day fluctuations are smoothed out.) The black “Fauci Line” is a counter to triumphalism, because it compares present ranges to previous crises. Should you take a look at the Fauci line, you will notice that regardless of the bleating and yammering about Covid being “over,” now we have solely only in the near past reached the (nominal) case degree of November 1, 2021, and we’re very removed from that of July 1, 2021. And the true degree is way worse.

Regional case rely for 4 weeks:

Wild stuff. Who knew the Midwest would soar?

The South:

Florida Man enters knowledge?

The South (minus Texas and Florida):

The West:

If this retains up, California will degree out to a “excessive plateau.”

Positivity

From the Walgreen’s check positivity tracker, August 20:

-1.6%.

Transmission

NOTE: I shall most definitely not be utilizing the CDC’s new “Community Level” metric. Because CDC has combined a leading indicator (cases) with a lagging one (hospitalization) their new metric is a poor warning sign of a surge, and a poor way to assess personal risk. In addition, Covid is a disease you don’t want to get. Even if you are not hospitalized, you can suffer from Long Covid, vascular issues, and neurological issues. For these reasons, case counts — known to be underestimated, due to home test kits — deserve to stand alone as a number to be tracked, no matter how much the political operatives in CDC leadership would like to obfuscate it. That the “green map” (which Topol calls a “capitulation” and a “deception”) is still up and being taken seriously verges on the criminal. Use the community transmission immediately below.

Here is CDC’s interactive map by county set to community transmission. (This is the map CDC wants only hospitals to look at, not you.)

NOT UPDATED Speedy Riser knowledge, by county (CDC), August 19:

I suppose that if case counts are certainly degree, it’s seemingly there could be few fast risers.

Earlier Speedy Riser knowledge:

NOT UPDATED Hospitalization knowledge, by state (CDC), August 19:

Flat calm on the hospital entrance. Should you’re CDC, and that’s all that issues to you — as a result of Lengthy Covid isn’t a factor, and all people who is absolutely sick can get to a hospital — you’re most likely feeling good proper now.

NOTE: Speedy Riser and Hospitalization knowledge are up to date Wednesdays and Fridays.

Variants

Lambert right here: It’s past irritating how sluggish the variant knowledge is. I seemed for extra charts: California doesn’t to a BA.4/BA.5 breakdown. New York does but it surely, too, is on a molasses-like two-week cycle. Does no person within the public well being institution get a promotion for monitoring variants? Are there no grants? Is there a single lab that does this work, and all people will get the outcomes from them? Extra sources from readers welcome [grinds teeth, bangs head on desk].

NOT UPDATED Variant knowledge, nationwide (Walgreens), August 6:

Full takeover by BA.5/BA.4. I’m wondering what’s coming subsequent?

NOT UPDATED Variant knowledge, nationwide (CDC), July 30 (Nowcast off):

BA.5/BA.4 transferring alongside properly.

Wastewater

Wastewater knowledge (CDC), August 16:

For grins, August 15:

What I’m actually fearful about is a rise in gray dots (“no current knowledge”). as a result of that will imply the trouble is being shut down or defunded.

Deaths

Loss of life price (Our World in Information):

Lambert right here: If actually the drop in circumstances is actual, as CDC appears to consider, we should always begin seeing deaths, which lag, drop round September 1.

Whole: 1,065,569 – 1,064,780 = 789 (789 * 365 = 287,985; at this time’s LivingWith™* quantity (fairly a bit greater than the minimizers would love, thought they’ll discuss themselves into something. Fluctuates fairly a bit, however even the low numbers are dangerous). I’ve added an anti-triumphalist black Fauci Line. It’s good that for deaths I’ve a easy, day by day chart that simply retains chugging alongside, in contrast to every thing else CDC and the White Home are screwing up or letting go darkish, good job.

Lambert right here: Sure, I multiplied by 365 this time!

• Ron, put down the pom-poms, I’m begging you:

Klain utterly erases an infection, therefore neurological injury, vascular injury, and Lengthy Covid. And as for Paxlovid, “a bevy of recent lab research exhibits the coronavirus can mutate in ways in which make it much less prone to the drug… Researchers have discovered a few of these mutations in variants already circulating in contaminated individuals, elevating contemporary considerations that physicians might quickly lose one in every of their finest therapies for preventing COVID-19.

Stats Watch

There are not any official statistics of be aware at this time.

At the moment’s Concern & Greed Index: 47 Impartial (earlier shut: 51 Impartial) [CNN]. One week in the past: 54 (Impartial). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Aug 22 at 1:47 PM EDT.

Rapture Index: Closes down one on Wild Climate. “The three tropical zones have been usually quiet” [Rapture Ready]. Document Excessive, October 10, 2016: 189. Present: 187. (Keep in mind that bringing on the Rapture is good.). They’re lacking Drought and Meals Provide. Ya know, I scan the full listing, and I’ve received to surprise if that is one more quantity that’s being rigged.

Zeitgeist Watch

Karen™? Is that you simply?

I don’t know why anyone would assume that air journey would ever revert to its pre-Covid glory days. The complete system is one ginormous superspreading machine, and in some unspecified time in the future sufficient persons are going to determine that out.

Certainly that is irony? However I don’t suppose Matty goes in for irony a lot:

Class Warfare

“AL Coal Miners Should Pay $13 Million in Damages for Strike, Biden’s NLRB Guidelines” [Truthout]. “On August 3, the United Mine Employees of America (UMWA) and the Related Press reported that the subunit of the Nationwide Labor Relations Board (NLRB) for Area 10 (a lot of the South) has ordered the union to pay $13.3 million to Warrior Met Coal. About 1,000 staff from two mines and two aboveground amenities southwest of Birmingham, Alabama, have been on strike in opposition to Warrior Met since April 2021, resisting brutal working situations. Now the Biden NLRB is demanding the UMWA pay what quantities to $13,000 per striker into the corporate’s pocket. The federal government says that is reimbursement for safety guards, safety cameras, repairs, and manufacturing misplaced due to the strike, plus buses for carrying scabs throughout picket traces.” • So strikes are actually unlawful? I do be aware this can be a subunit of the NLRB, so probably the UMW will enchantment. However I’ve the sensation it will solely culminate in direct motion. Think about if Starbucks takes the identical place!

“A Coal Miner’s Political Transformation” (transcript) [New York Times]. “There’s a complete bunch of individuals over in that constructing that hate us. They simply hate us as a result of we gained’t bow down, as a result of we gained’t say, sure, do no matter you wish to us. We gained’t try this. They usually don’t perceive that we are going to not topic ourselves to their mercy.”

Terrific thread on homelessness, price studying in full:

The truth of huge tent cities throughout America wasn’t on my Bingo card, again within the days when America put a person on the moon, and so forth.

Information of the Wired

“Shocker! Check Exhibits Bodily Buttons Are Much less Time-Consuming in Automobiles Than Touchscreens” [Car and Driver]. “Vi Bilägare examined a dozen automobiles—primarily new but in addition one 2005 Volvo—to see how lengthy it took to carry out a sequence of 4 duties. It took 10 seconds within the previous automotive and as much as 45 in one of many new fashions. By timing the duties because the automobiles had been in movement, we are able to see how a easy factor like turning on the radio to a particular station can imply a driver’s eyes and focus are on the display rather more than they was. Future drivers might look again on the present pattern of changing swaths of easy, bodily buttons with touchscreens and surprise why we let this occur.” • If we’re fortunate, sure.

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CC writes: “Bushes contained in the erosion crater at Haleakala Nationwide Park on Maui.” Wow!

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