Mood your expectations for USC however not Caleb Williams

The entire delusional SoCal bros flooding Vegas with USC nationwide championship bets can be higher off taking that cash and stapling it to bar partitions or burying it. A title workforce constitutes greater than Lincoln Riley and Caleb Williams because it takes pallets of expertise to face down the Alabamas, Georgias, and Ohio States of the world. Even with Pitt broad receiver switch Jordan Addison, the Trojans should play flawless soccer to achieve the playoff not to mention win two rounds.

So in gentle of that actuality, permit me to supply up one other wager with, because the consultants name it, higher worth. I’m not right here to really give betting recommendation. Most of what I find out about playing comes through popular culture or osmosis from my many degenerate buddies who nonetheless yell at TV screens within the fall. That mentioned, seize Williams for Heisman at +700 proper now (if you happen to haven’t already parlayed it together with your title guess).

The 2 favorites for the trophy — Ohio State’s CJ Stroud and Alabama’s Bryce Younger — deserve the percentages that they’ve been given. Younger gained it final yr, and Stroud accomplished greater than 70 p.c of his throws whereas posting gaudy numbers — 4,435 yards passing, 44 touchdowns, and solely six interceptions. The Tide’s QB principally put up higher stats than that (4,872 yards, 47 TDs, and 7 picks, with a 67 p.c completion share), which is why he walked away with faculty soccer’s most prized particular person award.

These numbers are objectively beautiful, and if both surpasses them, they’ll undoubtedly be frontrunners. That mentioned, it’s actually freaking arduous to repeat these years. Matt Leinart’s landing totals dropped yearly from his sophomore season to his senior yr. Lamar Jackson scored six fewer instances within the follow-up to his Heisman-winning marketing campaign.

I wouldn’t name it regression as a result of it’s extraordinarily tough to have a season touched by God when everybody has the sport movie that obtained a participant anointed the earlier season. Consider opponents’ familiarity and some operating again dives from the one-yard line, and it’s sufficient for the typical pundit to push away the spoonful of hype like a toddler with an additional sense of what’s a vegetable.

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Within the case of Williams, he didn’t come wherever near his stat ceiling as a result of he didn’t see taking part in time till after Spencer Rattler’s incomprehensible 2021 Heisman marketing campaign got here to an finish when he obtained benched towards Texas. Williams’ comeback was the stuff of legends, and as a lot as Texas wish to rectify final yr’s meltdown, the Longhorns gained’t have that chance — not towards Williams not less than.

In eight-plus video games, the brand new Trojans’ QB had 1,912 yards within the air, 21 move TDs, 4 interceptions, and one other 442 yards and 6 scores on the bottom. He may simply prime 3,000 yards passing this yr with a full season underneath middle, and the receiving expertise on that workforce. I additionally wouldn’t be stunned if he eclipsed 1,000 yards on the bottom as USC’s backfield is made up of latest or former transfers and a freshman who mixed for 958 yards dashing in 2021.

Regardless of the entire transfers and recruits, USC will want Williams to do every little thing. The workforce improved simply sufficient, and the convention stays simply weak sufficient, for 10 wins to be within the realm of potentialities. There may be an occasional blowout the place Williams sits 1 / 4, however I’m banking on Riley needing — and utilizing — him fairly a bit.

Plus, familiarity gained’t be a difficulty. The one workforce within the Pac-12 that confronted Williams final season (Oregon) isn’t on the schedule until they meet within the convention title recreation. The percentages of the Trojans making that recreation may be a bit of longer with commissioner George Kliavkoff scrapping the divisions this yr. That mentioned, they gained’t should battle preseason No. 7 Utah to achieve it, and No. 11 Oregon has query marks with a brand new coach and new (switch) quarterback, Bo Nix, who I don’t belief in any respect.

Notre Dame and Utah are the hardest matchups on the schedule, and the Trojans don’t play the Golden Domers till the ultimate recreation of the common season. Whereas the Utes in Week 7 scare the shit out of me, if Williams can get out of there and not using a efficiency like he had towards Iowa State in ’21, present out towards Notre Dame, and win a doable rematch with Utah (or beat Oregon) to win the Pac-12, there might be tidal waves of assist for Williams’ Heisman candidacy.

And I haven’t even talked about the historical past of quarterbacks going ham underneath Riley’s tutelage.

So there you go, USC followers. If you’d like a wager to scream “Struggle on!” about the complete season, go along with Caleb for Heisman, a guess you may truly win reasonably than a pipe dream.