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Afghanistan stays a simmering cauldron of jihadist terrorist teams, numerous actors searching for to counter them, and battle and cooperation among the many teams themselves.
Taliban fighters stand guard on the website of an explosion in entrance of a Sikh temple in Kabul, Afghanistan, Saturday, June 18, 2022.
Credit score: AP Picture/Ebrahim Noroozi
In October 2021, the U.S. undersecretary of protection for coverage, Dr. Colin Kahl, testified earlier than the U.S. Congress on the standing of safety in Afghanistan. When requested in regards to the potential resurgence of worldwide terrorism emanating from the nation, Kahl responded that the U.S. intelligence group assessed each al-Qaida and the Islamic State’s “Khorasan” department (often called ISK) “have the intent to conduct exterior operations, together with in opposition to the USA, however neither, presently has the aptitude to take action.” Kahl went on to state that ISK may probably develop such a functionality inside 6 to 12 months, whereas al-Qaida may take a yr or two to take action.
We are actually throughout the window of Kahl’s evaluation for these two teams to have probably reconstituted their capabilities to threaten Afghanistan’s neighbors and past. However have they finished so?
A yr after Kahl delivered this evaluation, it’s value taking inventory of notable terrorist teams in Afghanistan and what numerous actors are doing to counter them. The remainder of this text examines the current evolution and present standing of 4 terrorist teams in Afghanistan, particularly al-Qaida, ISK, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and the East Turkestan Islamic Motion (ETIM, also referred to as the Turkestan Islamic Celebration). After discussing every group in flip, the article will describe what – if something – the Taliban have finished about them, in addition to what we would anticipate within the yr forward.
Al-Qaida
Al-Qaida’s presence in Afghanistan consists of a cadre of its “core” management in addition to members of its regional affiliate, often called al-Qaida within the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS). On the time of the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan, al-Qaida’s core management launched a press release that heartily congratulated the group on its accomplishment. It additionally used the chance to energise its world associates and to reinvigorate drives for brand spanking new recruits and funding.
Al-Qaida’s management had been recovering from a interval of losses, and Ayman al-Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden’s successor as the top of the group, launched a video in September 2021 that put to relaxation persistent rumors of his loss of life. In early 2022, al-Qaida was assessed to have a number of dozen senior leaders within the nation, a few of whom have been reported to be dwelling in Kabul’s former diplomatic quarter. Zawahiri was believed to be in japanese Afghanistan, together with a number of different core leaders.
By Might 2022, the U.N.’s monitoring workforce concluded that “the operational actions of al-Qaida in Afghanistan have been restricted to recommendation and assist to the Taliban… al-Qaida seems free to pursue its aims, in need of worldwide assaults or different high-profile exercise that might embarrass the Taliban or hurt their pursuits.” It additionally assessed that al-Qaida would doubtless stay targeted on inside reorganization to higher pursue its world jihadist aspirations. The U.S. authorities largely concurred with that evaluation.
By July, nevertheless, al-Qaida had re-energized its media wing and Zawahiri had been issuing common audio and video messages exhorting his followers to “besiege America with terror.” These actions appeared to point a newfound degree of consolation for the al-Qaida chief inside Taliban-run Afghanistan.
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