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By Lambert Strether of Corrente
Fowl Track of the Day
Black Solitaire, Esmeraldas, Ecuador. A number of jungle noises, with an aria on the finish.
Politics
“However what’s authorities itself, however the best of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51
“Right here’s meals for thought, had Ahab time to suppose; however Ahab by no means thinks; he solely feels, feels, feels” –Herman Melville, Moby Dick
“The logic of the insult and the logic of scientific classification signify the 2 excessive poles of what a classification could also be within the social world.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
Capitol Seizure
“How Influential Senate Democrats Shut Down a Bid to Name Witnesses In opposition to Trump” [Politico]. The caption beneath the photograph on the prime tells the story: “Senator Chris Coons (D-Del.), as President Biden’s closest ally within the Senate, voiced out towards bringing out witnesses to testify, worrying concerning the trial dragging out and hurting the brand new president.” • IOW, the headline is misleading, as a detailed studying of the story exhibits. Coons was Biden’s straw.
Biden Administration
“White Home says no change in nuclear posture after Biden ‘armageddon’ comment” [The Hill]. • In order that’s alright, then.
“Biden Takes Welcome, however Very Restricted Steps In the direction of Marijuana Legalization” [Reason]. “Yesterday, the White Home introduced two incremental steps in the direction of loosening federal marijuana prohibition. President will pardon ‘all present United States residents and lawful everlasting residents who dedicated the offense of straightforward possession of marijuana in violation of the Managed Substances Act.’ As well as, he has directed the Lawyer Common and the Division of Well being and Human Companies to review whether or not marijuana must be faraway from the listing of Schedule I medication beneath the Managed Substances Act (CSA). If marijuana is faraway from Schedule I (a choice which the CSA leaves to the manager), penalties for possession and distribution can be diminished. These are welcome steps. However, as Purpose’s Jacob Sullum explains, they’re very restricted. In accordance with the White Home’s personal information, . Some 6500 folks have been convicted beneath federal marijuana possession expenses during the last 30 years, plus a couple of thousand extra within the District of Columbia (to which the president’s pardon energy additionally extends). However practically all of those folks have both already been launched, or are presently serving time on different expenses, as effectively.” • Plus Joe Biden owes me 600 bucks.
2022
* * * “A very powerful voting bloc remains to be undecided” [Politico]. “There are 34 days to go till Election Day 2022, and the most important bloc of voters — and the most important bloc of swing voters — is undecided. Solely 17 % of girls over 50 have determined whom they plan on voting for on this yr’s midterm elections, based on a current survey by AARP. This group could make or break elections: Whereas ladies over 50 make up 1 / 4 of the voting-age inhabitants, they made up 30 % of those that confirmed as much as vote in 2020. And 82 % of those voters say they’re very motivated to vote in November.” • Hmm.
“Democrats’ technique to spice up MAGA Republicans is vindicated” [MSNBC]. “Take, for instance, Rep. Peter Meijer, who voted for the laws and in January 2021 voted to question Trump. Earlier this yr Democrats helped defeat him in a main towards MAGA (and Trump endorsed) Republican John Gibbs. To date, in baldly political phrases, the Democrats’ strategic evaluation that Gibbs can be simpler to defeat seems to be appropriate. After the first, the Prepare dinner Political Report shifted its score of the race from ‘toss up’ to ‘lean Democratic.’” • That is the one nationwide race MSNBC has bought. Some vindication! Another concept, I suppose, is that Democrats are figuring which MAGA sorts they’ll do enterprise with.. I imply, they’re definitely doing that with the Azovs. And others:
Uh oh. @nytimes is writing fanfic whitewashing and glorifying Nazis once more https://t.co/GdBMDHqHgn pic.twitter.com/QtC0fryaw4
— Ali Abunimah (@AliAbunimah) October 7, 2022
“Don’t fear. We will management them.”
GA: “Herschel Walker’s Abortion Story Has Change into Incoherent” [New York Magazine]. “5 weeks out from Election Day, Herschel Walker and his marketing campaign are studying the very fundamentals of disaster communications, together with rudimentary classes like ‘when the pro-life Senate candidate in Georgia paid for a girlfriend’s abortion and his staffers know concerning the matter, it’s most likely a good suggestion to have a recreation plan prepared for when the story comes out.’ However because the Day by day Beast reported that the previous soccer star paid $700 for a girlfriend to terminate a being pregnant in 2009 — and despatched a get-well card along with his signature on it — the marketing campaign has been scrambling to reply.”
PA: “Fetterman breaks fundraising report in newest quarter” [The Hill]. “Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman pulled in $22 million for his Senate bid during the last three months, doubling what he raised within the earlier fundraising interval. The haul — which got here from 330,000 completely different donors, based on Fetterman’s marketing campaign — marks the Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nominee’s finest fundraising quarter so far and brings his whole money haul to greater than $48 million. Fetterman’s marketing campaign stated that the $22 million whole is essentially the most raised in a single quarter by a Senate candidate in Pennsylvania…. The Prepare dinner Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapper, shifted the race into its toss-up column this week after beforehand score it as ‘Lean Democrat.’ Regardless of early stumbles by Oz, the Trump-backed celeb doctor has refocused his marketing campaign in current weeks, relentlessly casting Fetterman as a far-left radical and elevating questions on his well being and health to serve in public workplace. The 2 males are set to fulfill on the talk stage on Oct. 25.” • That debate shall be for all of the marbles, except Fetterman runs a brutally efficient air conflict nearly instantly. And Fetterman’s debate efficiency has not been good.
2024
“On Trump’s final day in workplace, why have been delicate paperwork allegedly in such disarray?” [NBC]. “On the finish of Donald Trump’s presidency, his staff returned a big batch of categorized FBI paperwork and different authorities data to the Justice Division in such disarray {that a} yr later — in a letter to lawmakers — the division stated it nonetheless couldn’t inform which of the paperwork have been the categorized ones. The paperwork got here from the FBI’s controversial probe in 2016 taking a look at alleged hyperlinks between Russia and Trump’s presidential marketing campaign. Trump tried to make the paperwork public the night time earlier than he left workplace, issuing a ‘declassification’ memo and secretly assembly with conservative author John Solomon, who was allowed to assessment the paperwork, Solomon instructed ABC Information this previous week. However for causes which can be nonetheless not clear – and to the good frustration of Trump and his political allies – not one of the paperwork have been ever formally launched, and the Justice Division stated Thursday it’s nonetheless working to find out which paperwork might be disclosed.” • Helps my concept…
Democrats en Déshabillé
Affected person readers, plainly individuals are really studying the back-dated publish! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are various updates. So I should do this. –lambert
I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Occasion (“the Democrat Occasion is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated publish, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “stay” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Occasion is, in truth, a tough drawback. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:
The Democrat Occasion is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Occasion didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” in fact.) Second, all of the working elements of the Occasion reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between parts of the Occasion (ka-ching, however not fully) these parts comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with belongings within the press and the intelligence group.
Observe, in fact, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is restricted by different courses; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.
* * * “Democrats’ swing-state native information ploy” [Axios]. “Writers for a D.C.-based media operation run by distinguished Democratic operatives are behind a sprawling community of ostensible native media shops churning out Democrat-aligned information content material in midterm battleground states, Axios has realized. Behind the patina of impartial native information, these websites are pumping out content material designed to place a sheen of unique reporting on partisan messaging. It’s an more and more widespread tactic amongst political outfits trying to give their staff a gradual stream of constructive content material they’ll then use to spice up their very own electoral communications. A community of at the least 51 regionally branded information websites has popped up since final yr beneath names just like the Milwaukee Metro Instances, the Mecklenburg Herald and the Tri-Metropolis Report. The websites are targeted on key swing states with elections in 2021 and 2022: Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Michigan, New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. Every follows the same template: aggregated native information content material and brief write-ups about native sports activities groups and points of interest — interspersed with closely slanted political information aimed toward boosting Democratic midterm candidates and attacking Republican opponents.” • Maggots infesting the corpse of the information enterprise.
Republican Funhouse
“Michael Flynn’s ReAwaken roadshow recruits ‘Military of God” [Associated Press]. “BATAVIA, N.Y. (AP) — By the point the purple, white and blue-colored microphone had been switched off, the gang of three,000 had listened to hours of invective and grievance. ‘We’re beneath warfare,’ one speaker instructed them. One other stated she would ‘take a bullet for my nation,’ whereas a 3rd insisted, ‘They hate you as a result of they hate Jesus.’ Attendees have been instructed now could be the time to ‘placed on the entire armor of God.’ Then retired three-star Military common Michael Flynn, the tour’s largest draw, invited folks to be baptized. Scores of individuals walked out of the audio system’ tent to 3 massive metallic tubs stuffed with water. Whereas reward music performed within the background, one conference-goer after one other stepped in. Pastors then lowered them beneath the floor, welcoming them into their motion within the title of Jesus Christ. One girl wore a T-shirt that learn ‘Military of God.’ Flynn warned the gang that they have been within the midst of a ‘religious conflict’ and a ‘political conflict’ and urged folks to become involved. ReAwaken America was launched by Flynn, a former White Home nationwide safety adviser, and Oklahoma entrepreneur Clay Clark a couple of months after the Jan. 6 rebel [sic] on the U.S. Capitol didn’t overturn the outcomes of the 2020 presidential election. Attendees and audio system nonetheless insist — towards all proof and dozens of courtroom rulings — that Donald Trump rightfully received…. Within the model of America laid out on the ReAwaken tour, Christianity must be on the heart of American life and establishments. As an alternative, it’s beneath assault, and attendees must combat to revive the nation’s Christian roots. It’s a message repeated again and again at ReAwaken — one which upends the constitutional ultimate of a pluralist democracy. However it’s a message that’s taking maintain.” • Frankly, I don’t belief the nationwide press, even the staid AP, to get this proper. as a result of I don’t suppose they undertstand the inhabitants, When the Trillbillies, who do, get round to this, I’ll hearken to them. In the meantime, we had the identical fervor with Bush. It turned out the Christianist factions that supported him didn’t have the abilities to control; because it seems, Liberty College isn’t Harvard.
Realignment and Legitimacy
Lots of strategist’s children are gonna should go to state colleges:
That is neat: information from an enormous metadata research of the persuasive results of marketing campaign advertisements (kindly shared by an creator).
Tons of fascinating information right here however the primary takeaway is, effectively, frankly, triangulation and “popularism” are bunk. They do not work. https://t.co/U0QbjaIxfl pic.twitter.com/6QXmmtLFri
— Will Stancil (@whstancil) October 7, 2022
#COVID19
Affected person readers: At present I’ve reconfigured the Covid-19 part. Since CDC will now make case information out there solely weekly, that information will turn into fully ineffective for early warning functions, as an alternative of solely partially ineffective, so I’ll get rid of that part fully. I’ll retain CDC’s wastewater chart (nonetheless every day), and Walgreen’s positivity chart (nonetheless every day). For transmission, CDC additionally made Speedy Riser and Hospitalization weekly, so I’ve eradicated them, too. I’ll retain the CDC group transmission map (“the purple map”), the CDC and Walgreens variant information, and the demise price (for so long as CDC helps them).
The web result’s that one of the best early warning system for an oncoming surge shall be wastewater, which has (a) spotty nationwide protection and (b) is routed by CDC with no examine. That’s actually a recipe for tragedy, particularly once we take into account that the one system that CDC explicitly constructed for early warning was the horrid “group ranges” (“the inexperienced map”).
I’ll proceed to mixture Tweets, as earlier than; modulo censorship, the Twitter might find yourself being one of the best early warning system now we have. In the meantime, if some consultants are appropriate, we must always get regardless of the UK is having in a month or so. However perhaps not! If we nonetheless appear to be on a plateau after Thanksgiving journey, I’ll reconfigure once more, again to extra emphasis on the financial system (as a result of I’ve sorely uncared for enterprise information).
• Maskstravaganza: “I Received’t Be Tossing My Masks Any Time Quickly” [MedPage Today]. “I’ve misplaced depend of the variety of private exposures to contagious, pre-symptomatic sufferers I’ve withstood with out turning into contaminated, due to easy surgical masks. The unfavorable features of masks as a barrier are concurrently obvious in my work and in my life. As physicians, we’re struggling to seem empathic and type with solely the highest halves of our faces whereas breaking dangerous information. … We’re all desperate to ditch the masks, however I received’t be tossing my masks away utterly any time quickly. I’m not comfy making the identical choices for my sufferers that I might make for myself. They don’t have a alternative about being unwell sufficient to require hospital admission, dialysis, or infusion remedy — and they’re at our mercy for care. Simply as we dutifully carry out ‘time outs’ earlier than procedures, and use maximal barrier precautions when putting central strains, I might encourage us to proceed masking when caring for sufferers, at the least in the interim. I shall be, and can proceed to work on, smiling with my eyes.” • This text accepts the validity of CDC’s “group ranges” metric; an editor ought to have caught that.
• ”Southwest CEO assessments constructive for COVID-19 after Senate listening to – airline” [Reuters]. “[CEO Gary] Kelly didn’t put on a masks in the course of the listening to and questioned the well being advantage of masks on airplanes. ‘I believe the case may be very sturdy that masks don’t add a lot if something within the air cabin surroundings — it’s very secure, very top quality in comparison with another indoor setting,’ Kelly stated. Late Friday, Southwest launched an e mail Kelly despatched to staff that sought to make clear his feedback, saying the airline helps the present federal masks mandate at airports and on airplanes: ‘There isn’t a effort underway to vary it earlier than it expires … Nearly all of our Workers and Clients have felt it has been an essential layer of safety, and I definitely agree with that.’” • That’s a rattling disgrace. All the time entertaining to see karma function in near-real time. Kelly is, in fact, stuffed with it:
This image was taken yesterday mid-flight from DFW to San Diego. This was the bottom CO2 studying of the flight. It’s the worst of any I’ve measured. About 15 folks sporting masks – together with the individual subsequent to me. (I believe he’s shopping for an Aranet4.) pic.twitter.com/0ONG7GcqU8
— Jim Rosenthal (@JimRosenthal4) October 6, 2022
• ”Sure, airline air flow insurance policies differ from service to service” [WUSA9]. “Is the air air flow system turned on when airline passengers are boarding and disembarking? There aren’t any federal guidelines and it varies from service to service.” • You’d suppose the web airline ticket websites can be including this info.
Case Depend
Case depend for the USA:
The final case depend chart. I’ve added a black “Fauci Line.” If we’re fortunate, that’s the brand new regular. Identical to the Nice Monetary Crash: They bought away with it, didn’t they? Solely Biden can undertake eugenics.
• “So lengthy, Omicron: White Home eyes subsequent part of pandemic” [Politico]. From Feburary, nonetheless germane: “Emboldened by falling case counts, the Biden administration is plotting a brand new part of the pandemic response aimed toward containing the coronavirus and conditioning People to stay with it.”
• “Q&A: Is the pandemic over?” [KPBS]. After Biden declared: “the pandemic is over.” “Is the pandemic over? [Eric] Topol: Sadly, it isn’t. We’re going to see extra of what now we have been seeing. There’s some very troublesome variants on the market which have extra immune evasion than the BA.5 that we needed to take care of by the summer season. We’re already seeing a major uptick within the European Union. And also you talked about that issues are coming down within the U.S. general and positively in San Diego, however sadly, we’re already seeing an upswing in circumstances within the Northeast, and as you recognize, we don’t observe circumstances that effectively. So there’s a variety of disturbing issues on the market that inform us, I believe, fairly effectively that whereas the weeks forward look okay, we’re in for some extra hassle within the subsequent couple, few months.” • Nicely price studying in full.
Wastewater
Wastewater information (CDC), October 3:
For grins, October 2:
An alert reader urged looking on the MWRA information from the Boston space, and lo and behold:
Lambert right here: This appears to have stalled.
It is a seven-day common, thoughts you, so the rise is not any fluke. (MRWA is split into north and south sewersheds. Each are rising.) Allow us to additionally do not forget that the Boston space will not be solely the house of many, many college students, it’s additionally a PMC heart, and now we have already seen one ginormous superspreader occasion from the convention in Boston. Boston additionally has a serious worldwide airport, one other explanation for unfold.
Positivity
UPDATED From the Walgreen’s check positivity tracker, October 5:
-0.0%.
Readers, please click on by on this, you probably have a minute. Since Walgreens did the proper factor, let’s give this challenge some stats.
Transmission
Right here is CDC’s interactive map by county set to group transmission. (That is the map CDC wants only hospitals to look at, not you.)
Lambert right here: I’ve to say, I’m seeing extra yellow and extra blue, which continues to please. However is the pandemic “over”? Nicely….
NOTE: The case information driving this map has all the time been weekly, so it isn’t affected by CDC’s choice.
Variants
Lambert right here: It’s past irritating how gradual the variant information is. I appeared for extra charts: California doesn’t to a BA.4/BA.5 breakdown. New York does nevertheless it, too, is on a molasses-like two-week cycle. Does no one within the public well being institution get a promotion for monitoring variants? Are there no grants? Is there a single lab that does this work, and everyone will get the outcomes from them? Extra sources from readers welcome [grinds teeth, bangs head on desk].
Variant information, nationwide (Walgreens), September 24:
Nonetheless no signal of BA.2.75 at Walgreens, regardless of its look in CDC information beneath.
UPDATED Variant information, nationwide (CDC), September 10 (Nowcast off):
Deaths
Loss of life price (Our World in Knowledge):
Whole: 1,087,350 – 1,086,685 = 665 (665 * 365 = 242,725, which is right now’s LivingWith™* quantity (fairly a bit increased than the minimizers would love, although they’ll discuss themselves into something. Fluctuates fairly a bit, however even the low numbers are dangerous). I’ve added an anti-triumphalist black Fauci Line. NOTE I’ll must configure this as effectively. However I’ve reconfigured sufficient for in the future.
It’s good that for deaths I’ve a easy, every day chart that simply retains chugging alongside, not like every part else CDC and the White Home are screwing up or letting go darkish, good job.
Stats Watch
Employment Scenario: “United States Unemployment Fee” [Trading Economics]. “The US unemployment price fell to three.5 % in September 2022, matching July’s 29-month low and remaining beneath market expectations of three.7 %, in one other signal general labor market circumstances on the earth’s largest financial system stay tight.” • I suppose Powell’s gotta tighten the thumbscrews some extra….
Inventories: “United States Wholesale Inventories” [Trading Economics]. “Wholesale inventories within the US superior by 1.3 % from a month earlier to $912.6 billion in August of 2022, matching an preliminary estimate and after a 0.6 % improve within the earlier month. It was the twenty fifth consecutive month of development in inventories.”
The Bezzle: “Twitter, Elon Musk Trial Postponed as Deal Talks Stall” [Wall Street Journal]. “The shock ruling, granting a request by Mr. Musk, successfully ends negotiations for a settlement that might permit the events to shortly shut the deal. Mr. Musk now has till Oct. 28 to take action. Chancellor Kathaleen McCormick stated if the deal doesn’t shut by that date, the events ought to contact her to schedule a November trial. She had beforehand denied makes an attempt by Mr. Musk to delay the trial and had fast-tracked it at Twitter’s request.”
At present’s Concern & Greed Index: 32 Concern (earlier shut: 30 Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 14 (Excessive Concern). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Oct 6 at 12:59 PM EDT.
The 420
Given Mucha’s report (he invented the idea of the Platinum Coin) I believe it is a actual proposal, not a modest one:
From my studying of 1961 Narcotics Treaty, federal legalization of nonprescription hashish would require retailer to be a “State enterprise”. Much more than postal banking, drug dealing an apparent @USPS enterprise alternative, supply infrastructure already in place. cc @dandolfa pic.twitter.com/tfkJm0Mk0P
— Carlos Mucha (@mucha_carlos) June 16, 2019
Genius!
Humanity’s Greatest Buddy
“What Do Canine Know About Us?” [The Atlantic]. “It feels as if she has come to a distinct stage of consciousness of us. She is seeing us; she is minding us. With this she has developed a figuring out look. Choosing up a peanut-butter-jar lid from the ground, she gently mouths it and carries it over to a canine mattress, the prey captured and introduced again to her den. After which she appears to be like instantly at me as she begins to gnaw it. Outdoors she picks up an ideal maple leaf by the stem and evenly pads away inside with it, glancing backward till she is out of our view. One other day she hurries into my son’s room, then saunters out carrying his sock, lazily mouthing it, trying proper at me. There’s a actual understanding occurring there, between my seeing her and her seeing me see her (and now my seeing her see me see her).” • This complete article jogged my memory of why I desire cats. Sorry, canine folks!
Our Famously Free Press
When you turn into an opinion-haver, you’ll be able to have opinions on no matter you want:
I’ve spent a lot of the day with nuclear weapons and Putin consultants and a couple of of them be a part of me on @inthebubblepod tomorrow to debate what the nuclear weapons menace actually means and easy methods to reply.
Episode drops at 3 am Japanese. Whereas Tucker Carlson folds; the US stays sturdy.
— Andy Slavitt 💙💛 (@ASlavitt) October 7, 2022
Odd to see the nimble Slavitt money in his well being care experience to turn into an professional on conflict. Perhaps he’s angling for the Instances Op-Ed web page, which may use a person of his skills.
Guillotine Watch
“Peloton’s CEO doesn’t perceive why folks aren’t happier he laid off 500 folks” [The Verge]. Following a WSJ story. “In a memo obtained by The Verge, [CEO Barry] McCarthy wrote: ‘We have been anticipating a narrative about redemption and the profitable turnaround of Peloton, which is why we invested time on background briefing them on the state of our turnaround. The headline ought to have been that current sturdy execution and right now’s restructuring have positioned us to fulfill our fiscal year-end objective of break-even money stream, with a renewed concentrate on accelerating our development, which is why I’ve by no means felt extra optimistic about our future. Would I say this if it weren’t true? .” • Oh, proper.
Class Warfare
An extended thread on wholesale restaurant meals distributor Sysco from Moe Tkacik:
Perhaps you’ve got heard Sysco @Teamsters are on strike in 3 cities. However except you’re employed in a industrial kitchen, you most likely do not know what Sysco even is, or why so many cooks & small eating places are *rooting* for the strikers. pic.twitter.com/z8ZJ9AzOZf
— moe tkacik (@moetkacik) October 6, 2022
Information of the Wired
“Why Dates and Instances Appear to Lose Their Which means” [Wall Street Journal]. “The dates on the calendar and the time on a clock are a number of the most ubiquitous and simply understood numbers in our lives. And but over the previous two years, many People have felt time blur: They lose observe of the day or hour, suppose extra (or much less) time has elapsed than really has, and may’t place precisely when a traumatic occasion really occurred. It isn’t their creativeness. Psychology has a time period for it: ‘temporal disintegration’—when the current appears disconnected from the continuity of time—and it performs an essential position in how we understand and reply to trauma…. It’s regular to be targeted on the current to the exclusion of the previous and future. However in the event you ceaselessly don’t know what day of the week it’s or can’t recall if one thing essential in your life occurred a day, a month or a yr in the past, or really feel just like the previous and future have disappeared, then a extra severe time warp could be at work.” • Useful chart:
I’m unsure residing within the current is such a nasty factor. I believe there’s something occurring right here, however the article reads like “urgency of regular” propaganda, to me.
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