2:00PM Water Cooler 10/11/2022 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Hen Music of the Day

White-breasted Nuthatch (Inside West), Antelope Valley, Sierra, California, United States. Lengthy and restful, within the legacy of Robert J. Lurtsema.

Politics

“However what’s authorities itself, however the biggest of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51

“Right here’s meals for thought, had Ahab time to suppose; however Ahab by no means thinks; he solely feels, feels, feels” –Herman Melville, Moby Dick

“The logic of the insult and the logic of scientific classification characterize the 2 excessive poles of what a classification could also be within the social world.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Biden Administration

“White Home unveils utility kind for Biden’s scholar debt reduction” [Politico]. • Rolling out an utility kind is essentially the most liberal Democrat factor EVAH.

2022

* * *

“Each events brace for October surprises” [The Hill]. “Strategists and political observers on each side of the aisle are bracing for a dreaded October shock within the closing month earlier than Election Day, cautious of something that would upend the political panorama and reshape the result of an already risky midterm cycle…. There’s additionally some debate about simply how significant October surprises nonetheless are. For one, the political setting is much extra polarized and there are fewer swing voters who might be swayed by last-minute revelations a couple of candidate or main occasion. What’s extra, Greenberg stated, information tends to come back and go a lot quicker in 2022 than it did even 20 years in the past. What occurs in early October, as an illustration, is probably not prime of thoughts for voters a month later. ‘It’s a cliché to say {that a} week is a lifetime in politics, however there’s all the time time for yet another flip of the wheel,’ he stated. ‘Since 1980 when the time period was coined, a month has come to appear like an extended span of time. So possibly it needs to be a late-October shock.’” • I don’t suppose we’ve received sufficient time to provide Huge Z with rockets that may hit Moscow, or prepare the crews. So a Churcilllian second for Biden, and a “rally around the flag” second domestically, are out. Until we fireplace the rockets ourselves, after all. If we do, Tim Ryan — the subsequent Machin, as a result of the present Manchin is about used up — would possibly win Ohio! (See beneath.)

OH: “4 takeaways from first Ohio Senate debate between Tim Ryan, J.D. Vance” [Columbus Dispatch]. “When requested how the U.S. ought to reply if Russian President Vladimir Putin makes use of nuclear weapons in opposition to Ukraine, Vance stated ‘no person is aware of’ what the most effective plan of action can be. He went on to argue that international coverage ought to put Individuals first, and he believes the Biden administration hasn’t carried out sufficient to deescalate the battle. Ryan referred to as for a ‘swift and important response’ if that happens and argued Vance is weak on Russia. The congressman additionally criticized his opponent for saying he doesn’t ‘actually care what occurs to Ukraine.’ ‘I’ve been to Parma,’ stated Ryan, referring to the Cleveland suburb with a big Ukrainian-American inhabitants. ‘I’ve been to Cleveland. I’ve met with the refugees. who I meet with? The ladies and the daughters and sons as a result of the husbands are in Ukraine combating [with the Azovs?]. That’s the sort of freedom we have to help, and J.D. Vance would let Putin roll proper via Ukraine.’” • Why, the subsequent Christia Freedland or Tony Blinken might be rising up in Parma proper now!

2024

“Biden’s about to show 80. Don’t anticipate a blowout birthday bash” [Politico]. “Aides each inside and out of doors the White Home have taken steps to organize for one more marketing campaign. They’ve steered {that a} marketing campaign kickoff would seemingly come within the first few months of 2023, which might be commensurate to when different presidents signaled their re-election plans. These closest to the president say that household discussions about working, with first woman Jill Biden taking part in a number one position, may start over the vacations with a closing determination seemingly coming early within the new 12 months. Some Democrats have quietly questioned if Biden is just too previous to run once more however many near the president suspect that he’ll — particularly if Donald Trump does.”

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, evidently individuals are really studying the back-dated submit! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are numerous updates. So I should try this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Celebration (“the Democrat Celebration is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated submit, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “dwell” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Celebration is, in truth, a tough drawback. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Celebration is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Celebration didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working components of the Celebration reinforce one another. Go away apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Celebration (ka-ching, however not fully) these components comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence group.

Notice, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

“Los Angeles reels from racist recording” [Politico]. Better of all, they’re all Democrats. “The overt racism on the tape drew the loudest condemnations, as you’ll anticipate after listening to an elected official mock and caricature a small youngster as a ‘parece changuito‘ (like a monkey) who deserves a ‘beatdown’ and is used like an ‘accent.’ However the recording additionally illuminated, within the starkest method, how management of political illustration is wielded like a blunt instrument to reward allies, punish foes and protect or increase energy. The officers discuss methods to distribute financial ‘property’ to ‘Latino districts.’ They mused about drawing a colleague’s district to dilute the facility of renters and thus undercut the incumbent — placing her district ‘in a blender.’ Herrera emphasizes the necessity to ‘therapeutic massage to create districts that profit you all.’ The dialog additionally veered into ethnic fractures, underscoring some ugly realities in a metropolis whose overwhelmingly Democratic authorities encompasses a large number of subgroups. Martinez and de León discuss how District Lawyer George Gascon was ‘for the Blacks’ and about white council members ignoring Latinos or being keen to ‘motherfuck you in a heartbeat.’ Martinez warns Black folks may ‘come after us’ in an act of political reprisal. Campaigns and governance can activate coalition-building, however politics may change into a zero-sum recreation in disputes about illustration and assets. Racism will not be new in Los Angeles, whose proud range coexists with a historical past of discrimination and the place the confluence of a booming Latino inhabitants and a diminishing Black inhabitants has fueled political stress.” • A giant, lovely tent, and above all, Democrats are completely dedicated to Range, Inclusion, and Fairness!

Obama Legacy

“Democrats gained’t get as a lot Obama as they need within the midterms. However he has another plans” [CNN]. “Democratic operatives say they’re desperate to see Obama play an lively position – even now, they are saying, his finest position is driving up essential Black voter turnout in locations like Philadelphia and Detroit – at the same time as they observe his attraction is shifting. Among the many disinterested voter blocs are a rising technology too younger to recollect his 2008 win, those that argue that his failure to ship on hovering guarantees helped arrange the disaster of religion and political despair that has adopted and people who have gotten bored with seeing how little he’s engaged.” Ouch! Extra: “Irrespective of how the midterms go, the previous President will host what he’s calling a Democracy Discussion board two weeks after Election Day – the primary occasion that he’s hoping to show into an annual gathering, reflecting a recalibration of the Obama Basis to deal with democracy in America and world wide. ‘We’ll discover a spread of points – from strengthening establishments and combating disinformation, to selling and expanded pluralism – that can form democracies for generations to come back,’ Obama writes in an announcement of the occasion going out to donors and others concerned with the inspiration, first obtained by CNN. ‘We’ll showcase democracy in motion world wide, and approaches which are working. And we’ll talk about and debate concepts for a way we are able to adapt our democracies and our establishments for a brand new age.’” • Oh. A basis.

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Voting techniques dependable, regardless of conspiracies” [Associated Press]. “Conspiracy theories unfold on-line and in boards throughout the nation nonetheless have undermined public confidence in voting machines and election outcomes, whereas main some counties to think about ditching the tools in favor of hand-marked and hand-counted ballots.” • Which might be a contented final result, whatever the course of by which it was arrived at. Personally, I don’t suppose election 2020 was stolen, any greater than election 2016 was (though in that case, the Clinton forces have been overconfident, as Democrats have been not in Iowa 2020). By the way, if you happen to imagine with Akerlof and Shiller that (to brutally summarize) “If fraud in a system is feasible, it would have already got occurred” (which it’s, see right here) than the CTers are proper from the 30,000-foot stage, if not at stage of particular person elections. The stakes are just too nice.

I ought to most likely put his in “The Gallery,” however it looks as if a superb metaphor for the political state of affairs:

Louise Bourgeois : ‘He Disappeared into Full Silence’ (plate, 1948) pic.twitter.com/8l2cZhkTjH

— Anorak (@TheAnorak) September 29, 2022

#COVID19

Affected person readers: Friday I reconfigured the Covid-19 part. Since CDC will now make case knowledge out there solely weekly, that knowledge will change into fully ineffective for early warning functions, as a substitute of solely partially ineffective, so I eradicated that part fully. I’ll retain CDC’s wastewater chart (nonetheless every day), and Walgreen’s positivity chart (nonetheless every day). For transmission, CDC additionally made Fast Riser and Hospitalization weekly, so I’ve eradicated them, too. I’ll retain the CDC group transmission map (“the purple map”), the CDC and Walgreens variant knowledge, and the loss of life price (for so long as CDC helps them).

The web result’s that the most effective early warning system for an oncoming surge can be wastewater, which has (a) spotty nationwide protection and (b) is routed via CDC with no verify (apart from the Biobot regional chart, which I gave up on due to its fixed backward revisions). All this can be a recipe for tragedy, particularly after we contemplate that the one system that CDC explicitly constructed for early warning was the horrid and misleading “group ranges” metric (“the inexperienced map”), which by incorporating a lagging indicator (hospitalization), didn’t present early warning in any respect.

I’ll proceed to combination Tweets, as earlier than; modulo censorship, the Twitter might find yourself being the most effective early warning system we now have. In the meantime, if some consultants are appropriate, we must always get regardless of the UK is having in a month or so. However possibly not! If we nonetheless appear to be on a plateau after Thanksgiving journey, I’ll reconfigure once more, again to extra emphasis on the financial system (as a result of I’ve sorely uncared for enterprise information).

• Hat tip, CDC:

A much less well mannered model of “many fewer infectious folks would seemingly be out” is “many extra folks would nonetheless be alive.” Right here is the examine Topol mentions–

“COVID-19 Signs and Length of Fast Antigen Take a look at Positivity at a Group Testing and Surveillance Website Throughout Pre-Delta, Delta, and Omicron BA.1 Intervals” [JAMA]. n = 63, 277. Conclusions and Relevance: “On this cross-sectional examine, COVID-19 higher respiratory tract signs have been extra generally reported in the course of the Omicron BA.1 interval than in the course of the pre-Delta and Delta durations, with variations by vaccination standing. Fast antigen check positivity remained excessive 5 days after symptom onset, supporting pointers requiring a unfavorable check to tell the size of the isolation interval.”

• “Extra deaths, swarms of variants, neurological Lengthy COVID: one other regular week in COVIDland” [CO2 Radical]. This can be a excellent Australian weekly e-newsletter. “In Australia, the COVID-19 Mortality Working Group of the Actuaries Institute revealed its newest evaluation of extra loss of life charges (that’s deaths larger than predicted, based mostly on knowledge from previous years) from January to June 2022. These are working at 13% (11,200), with the whole extra deaths in June itself at 16% (2,400). About half of those are due on to COVID and the remainder are from different causes. Professor Brendan Crabb of the Burnet Institute estimates 20-25,000 extra deaths in Australia this 12 months…. The Actuaries Institute believes COVID itself would be the third main explanation for loss of life in 2022. Gradual handclap to the brand new Australian authorities. 👏👏👏…. There’s been nothing within the print or broadcast media about this and if anybody has a passable clarification as to why the Australian media has ignored these gorgeous extra loss of life findings utterly, I can be grateful to obtain it.” • I comply with loads of Australian accounts, and so they’re actually ticked off, rightly; Australia was doing nicely till Scotty from Advertising and marketing and Gladys determined to contaminate the remainder of the nation for cash.

Lambert right here: I’ve moved the Wasterwater part; it fails to load, or has not been up to date, too usually to be first. Hats off to CDC, the world’s finest public well being company.

Transmission

Right here is CDC’s interactive map by county set to group transmission. (That is the map CDC wants only hospitals to look at, not you.)

Lambert right here: I’ve to say, I’m seeing extra yellow and extra blue, which continues to please. However is the pandemic “over”? Properly….

Positivity

From the Walgreen’s check positivity tracker, October 8:

-0.9%.

Readers, please click on via on this, when you have a minute. Since Walgreens did the suitable factor, let’s give this mission some stats.

Wastewater

NOT UPDATED Wastewater knowledge (CDC), October 4:

October 3:

An alert reader steered having a look on the MWRA knowledge from the Boston space, and lo and behold:

Lambert right here: Nonetheless stalled. To date, I don’t suppose we now have a sign of winter’s onslaught.

This can be a seven-day common, thoughts you, so the rise is not any fluke. (MRWA is split into north and south sewersheds. Each are rising.) Allow us to additionally keep in mind that the Boston space will not be solely the house of many, many college students, it’s additionally a PMC middle, and we now have already seen one ginormous superspreader occasion from the convention in Boston. Boston additionally has a significant worldwide airport, one other explanation for unfold.

Variants

Lambert right here: It’s past irritating how sluggish the variant knowledge is. I regarded for extra charts: California doesn’t to a BA.4/BA.5 breakdown. New York does however it, too, is on a molasses-like two-week cycle. Does no person within the public well being institution get a promotion for monitoring variants? Are there no grants? Is there a single lab that does this work, and everyone will get the outcomes from them? Extra sources from readers welcome [grinds teeth, bangs head on desk].

Variant knowledge, nationwide (Walgreens), September 24:

First look of BA.2.75 at Walgreens, confirming CDC knowledge beneath.

UPDATED Variant knowledge, nationwide (CDC), September 17 (Nowcast off):

Deaths

Dying price (Our World in Information):

Complete: 1,087,976 – 1,087,880 = 96 (530 * 96 = 50,880, which is right this moment’s LivingWith™* quantity (fairly a bit larger than the minimizers would love, although they will discuss themselves into something. Fluctuates fairly a bit, however even the low numbers are unhealthy). I’ve added an anti-triumphalist black Fauci Line. NOTE I’ll have to configure this as nicely. However I’ve reconfigured sufficient for someday.

It’s good that for deaths I’ve a easy, every day chart that simply retains chugging alongside, in contrast to every little thing else CDC and the White Home are screwing up or letting go darkish, good job.

Stats Watch

Retail: “PC Shipments Plunge Almost 20%, Steepest Drop in Extra Than 20 Years” [Wall Street Journal]. “Worldwide shipments within the third quarter dropped 19.5% from a 12 months in the past, marking the steepest decline in additional than 20 years, in response to knowledge from analysis agency Gartner Inc. Pc makers shipped 68 million PCs within the latest quarter, down from 84.5 million items the 12 months prior…. The sector benefited in the course of the pandemic from a growth in digital gross sales as households and companies purchased PCs to regulate to working from dwelling and distant education. However these huge purchases are laborious for shoppers to duplicate so quickly, particularly as inflation curbs spending amid different macroeconomic situations.”

Delivery: “Choked-Up Yards and Trailer Shortages Field In America’s Truckers” [Wall Street Journal]. “The miles on the street and hours spent ready to modify containers between vehicles and trailers are how the supply-chain congestion that has rattled the American financial system seems to be on the bottom, the place tens of hundreds of shipments converge every day in a Chicago area that types one of many nation’s most important, and most crowded, freight hubs. The products arrive on trains greater than a mile lengthy stacked two-high with delivery containers, most of them introduced in from Asia by container ships via West Coast ports which have been backed up by a flood of imports over the previous two years. The surge in items has been pushed by the patron shopping for binge that began early within the pandemic and left retailers resembling Walmart Inc. and Goal Corp. scrambling to get items throughout the Pacific Ocean and into shops. That rush has dissipated as shopper purchasing has shifted this 12 months, with extra spending going to journey and different companies, and the delivery volumes have began receding at seaports. However the furnishings, attire, athletic tools and different shopper items rushed into the market are nonetheless in distribution pipelines as bottlenecks proceed to ripple throughout the inland panorama. The backups at warehouses and freight yards within the densely packed Chicago area have damaged the delicate stability between the movement of products and the motion of the vehicles, containers and trailers that undergird the freight financial system.” • One other method of claiming that is that the truckers and the railroad employees have “the financial system” by the throat, if solely they might train their energy collectively.

Finance:

The Bezzle: “Celsius Says Execs Withdrew Thousands and thousands Earlier than Chapter, Courtroom Filings Present” [Bloomberg]. “Prime executives at Celsius Community LLC withdrew tens of millions of {dollars} price of cryptocurrencies within the month earlier than suspending buyer withdrawals from the platform, in response to chapter courtroom paperwork filed by legal professionals for the crypto lender in New York late Wednesday.” • Huh.

The Bezzle:

Lol. “Look on my works, ye mighty, and despair!”

Manufacturing: “America’s manufacturing rebound is going through shocking headwinds from the U.S. greenback. The strengthening forex is making foreign-made items cheaper to import… handing abroad producers a bonus in promoting into the U.S. whereas American-made exports develop dearer overseas” [Wall Street Journal]. “Gross sales in foreign exchange by U.S. producers working abroad factories are also price much less due to the unfavorable alternate charges brought on by the strengthening greenback. The greenback’s surge in opposition to the euro, the Japanese yen, the British pound and different currencies provides a brand new wrinkle to the reshoring drive that has seen some U.S. corporations search for home alternate options due to unreliable abroad provide chains and rising delivery prices. Nonetheless, the forex shift helps some U.S. importers of producing parts. Wisconsin-based producer Generac Holdings says it’s discovering higher costs for components which are serving to “offset larger logistics prices we’re paying.” • Manufacturing nonetheless the handmaiden of financialization?

At this time’s Concern & Greed Index: 20 Excessive Concern (earlier shut: 20 Excessive Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 30 (Concern). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Oct 6 at 12:59 PM EDT.

Rapture Index: Closes up one on Oil Provide/Value. “Oil has risen above $90 per barrel” [Rapture Ready]. File Excessive, October 10, 2016: 189. Present: 188. (Keep in mind that bringing on the Rapture is good.)

Well being Care

“As Hospitals Shut Youngsters’s Models, The place Does That Go away Lachlan?” [New York Times]. There’s, after all, an image of Lachlan, who’s adorbs. Regardless of that: “Hospitals across the nation, from regional medical facilities to smaller native amenities are closing down pediatric items. The reason being stark economics: Establishments earn more money from grownup sufferers. In April, Henrico Medical doctors’ Hospital in Richmond, Va., ended its pediatric inpatient companies. In July, Tufts Youngsters’s Hospital in Boston adopted go well with. Shriners Youngsters’s New England stated it would shut its inpatient unit by the tip of the 12 months. Pediatric items in Colorado Springs, Raleigh, N.C., and Doylestown, Pa., have closed as nicely. ‘They’re asking: Ought to we maintain children we don’t make any cash off of, or use the mattress for an grownup who wants a bunch of costly assessments?’ stated Dr. Daniel Rauch, chief of pediatric hospital medication for Tufts Medication, who headed its basic pediatric unit till it closed over the summer time. ‘When you’re a hospital, that’s a no brainer.’” • So inform me: Why are we giving hospitals any management over well being care coverage in any respect? Until, after all, you’re a eugenicist who believes that solely match kids ought to survive.

The Gallery

Fairly a pairing:

Twitter comes via on the “Present Dialog” entrance!

E book Nook

“Lady on the Fringe of Time” [Marge Piercy]. • Linking to this as a result of I feel everyone ought to learn it (ideally by ordering it at a bookstore). Finest *topian novel ever. Additionally an actual pageturner. even within the explication components! I learn this within the 70s, when feminism was a critical factor as a substitute of a facet of the successor ideology, and I’ve by no means forgotten it.

“Lady on the Fringe of Time Introduction” [Schmoop]. • I’m linking to this as a reveal that I take pleasure in Schmoop. Below the jaunty veneer of a really casual type, Schmoop does good shut readings and provides numerous plotting instruments. Additionally, I cried too when Jackrabbit died (or reasonably, when Luciente discovered Jackrabbit is died. “Individual is lifeless!” Sure, Pierce additionally has a rational tackle the frigging pronouns drawback). I can’t think about how a author does this. However they do.

Class Warfare

“Giant rail union rejects deal, renewing strike chance” [Associated Press]. “The U.S.’s third largest railroad union rejected a take care of employers Monday, renewing the potential of a strike that would cripple the financial system. B oth sides will return to the bargaining desk earlier than that occurs. Over half of monitor upkeep employees represented by the Brotherhood of Upkeep of Means Employes Division who voted opposed the five-year contract regardless of 24% raises and $5,000 in bonuses. Union President Tony Cardwell stated the railroads didn’t do sufficient to deal with the shortage of paid time without work — significantly sick time — and dealing situations after the key railroads eradicated almost one-third of their jobs over the previous six years. ‘Railroaders are discouraged and upset with working situations and compensation and maintain their employer in low regard. Railroaders don’t really feel valued,’ Cardwell stated in an announcement. ‘They resent the truth that administration holds no regard for his or her high quality of life, illustrated by their cussed reluctance to offer the next amount of paid time without work, particularly for illness.’ The group that represents the railroads in negotiations stated they have been disenchanted the union rejected the settlement, however emphasised that no speedy risk of a strike exists as a result of the union [that is, the Union’s management] agreed to maintain working for now.” •

Information of the Wired

“Spanish airline reserves 10 Airlander airships from Bedford-based agency” [BBC]. From June, nonetheless germane. “Hybrid Air Autos (HAV) stated European-based Air Nostrum Group had reserved 10 Airlander airships for supply from 2026…. The airships, which keep aloft utilizing helium and electrical energy, have been commissioned to seat 100 folks. Based on HAV’s web site, hybrid plane fly resulting from a mix of aerodynamic raise (like an aeroplane), lifting gases (like an airship) and vectored thrust (much like a helicopter). Airlander generates as much as 40% of its raise from aerodynamics by the passage of air over the hull and the rest from buoyant raise from the helium.” • Fairly neat!

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