2:00PM Water Cooler 12/8/2022 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Fowl Music of the Day

Cretzschmar’s Bunting, Gaziantep, Türkiye. Cretzschmar with a “C.” These guys haven’t any logic in any respect.

Politics

“However what’s authorities itself, however the biggest of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51

“Right here’s meals for thought, had Ahab time to suppose; however Ahab by no means thinks; he solely feels, feels, feels” –Herman Melville, Moby Dick

“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in truth a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Biden Administration

“‘Very painful resolution’: How Biden selected to convey Griner residence and depart Whelan in Russia” [Politico]. “‘Because of the nature of the sham espionage fees Russia levied towards Paul [Whelan], the Russians have continued to deal with his scenario otherwise from Brittney’s and rejected each considered one of our proposals for his launch,’ a senior administration official stated. ‘It was a selection between bringing residence one specific American, Brittney Griner, or bringing residence none.’”

2022

“Public Has Modest Expectations for Washington’s Return to Divided Authorities” [Pew Research]. Useful chart:

I’m unsure what intense tribalism plus no expectations for achievement is a recipe for, however I don’t suppose I’ll prefer it.

* * *

GA: “Virtually $80 million is spent on TV advertisements for Georgia’s 4-week Senate runoff” [NPR]. Thomas Ferguson teaches us to at take a look at the cash first, so: “There was a rush of spending on TV advertisements for the pivotal Georgia U.S. Senate runoff, which is only a shortened four-week marketing campaign. In that interval, some $79 million has been poured in to purchase airtime. And spending by teams supporting Democratic incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock has greater than doubled contributions from teams backing Republican challenger Herschel Walker, based on information from the ad-tracking agency AdImpact and analyzed by NPR. Right here’s how the TV spending for this runoff breaks down: Professional Warnock: $54 million ($25m marketing campaign, $29m outdoors teams) Professional Walker: $25 million ($10m marketing campaign, $15m outdoors teams).” • In fact, if cash have been the one issue, Amy McGrath could be representing Kentucky within the Senate, not Mitch McConnell. And Hillary Clinton could be President. However. And talking of losers with a lot of cash from nationwide Democrats–

GA: “Abrams’ aide says Democrat had ‘practically inconceivable’ likelihood to beat Kemp” [Atlanta Journal-Constitution]. “[Lauren] Groh-Wargo, who was Abrams’ marketing campaign supervisor throughout her bids for governor each this 12 months and in 2018, stated within the sequence of posts that conservative criticism of Abrams ‘poisoned her picture’ whereas the Democrat ‘leveraged her time, skills and organizations to safe the wins of 2020’ in Georgia and different battleground states. ‘In doing so, she additionally made the 2022 gubernatorial race towards a well-funded incumbent practically inconceivable,; wrote Groh-Wargo, who blamed conservatives for driving Abrams’ ‘negatives sky-high’ and accused the media of framing Kemp as a reasonable for defying Donald Trump. ‘In November, the white voters who had supported (Abrams’) work in 2018 and 2020 balked at giving her the job of governor as a result of Kemp wasn’t ‘that dangerous’ and she or he had been tarnished by the unrelenting assault,’ Groh-Wargo stated within the submit.” • Commentary:

In the event you discuss to Georgia Dems privately lots of them say that Abrams was a foul candidate however few say so publicly. Why is that? One cause might be that nationwide donors gave Abrams and her orgs over $100 million and there aren’t some other kingmakers in Georgia.

— Zaid Jilani (@ZaidJilani) December 8, 2022

Anxious to see Abrams working for President in 2024.

GA: “Scenes from a doomed Senate marketing campaign” [Politico]. “[B]eyond the scandals, the marketing campaign operation was coping with a conflict between employees and Herschel Walker and his spouse, Julie, about easy methods to run issues. It’s actually commonplace for a candidate to take curiosity within the decision-making and supply enter or require some stage of accountability, however I heard comparable tales from varied ranges of employees about being hamstrung, significantly by her. The whole lot from comms staffers being berated in the event that they have been seen speaking to a reporter at a rally, or employees scheduling suggestions being ignored in favor of going to areas the place they’d seemingly see little payoff. There’s no cause to suppose Herschel and Julie Walker didn’t imply properly, however they most likely had little-to-no enterprise calling the photographs on a significant political marketing campaign.” However: “Walker’s marketing campaign schedule was not his undoing. It illustrates a few of his technique missteps as a political novice and offers some perception into his problematic marketing campaign operation. His downfall, as I quoted an individual very near the marketing campaign saying, was that he was unprepared to run for this stage of workplace and made every part harder for himself, his employees and different allies by not being forthcoming about what was in his previous. And in conversations with these folks, lots of them actually imagine Walker simply didn’t perceive how carefully he could be scrutinized, how brutal campaigns are, and the way damning particulars from his previous have been going to be delivered to mild both manner.” • Fascinating, too, about “Walker’s persona and real curiosity in staffers and their households made him straightforward for them to love.” Wasn’t my image in any respect (I’ve priors about soccer, and soccer heroes). Unsure Walker can strive once more…

GA: “Republicans Don’t Know Who To Blame For Herschel Walker’s Loss” [Vanity Fair]. “[I]n his Tuesday runoff towards Senator Raphael Warnock, [Walker] delivered a far worse efficiency than each Republican candidate who ran statewide in Georgia, prompting a cascade of finger-pointing…. When all is claimed and finished, Walker’s loss to Warnock will seemingly work out to a few share factors––a margin that means a extra generic, much less scandal-scarred Republican might need gained the race, simply as Minority Chief Mitch McConnell predicted in April. ‘How may [Republicans] screw this up? It’s truly attainable,’ he stated of the social gathering’s midterm hopes on the time. And now, after witnessing a wave of less-than-stellar performances by the GOP’s inexperienced major nominees, McConnell’s issues about poor ‘candidate high quality’ seem to have been proper on the cash.”

GA: “Some Classes from Herschel Walker’s Marketing campaign Debacle in Georgia” [The New Yorker]. “‘Herschel was like a airplane crash right into a prepare wreck that rolled right into a dumpster fireplace,’ the Georgia Republican operative Dan McLagan, who suggested considered one of Walker’s rivals within the G.O.P. major, informed the Atlanta Journal-Structure. ‘And an orphanage. Then an animal shelter. You sort of needed to watch it squinting between one eye between your fingers.’ A Walker staffer informed the identical newspaper that his marketing campaign felt like a ‘loss of life march.’ And but, in any case that, with greater than ninety-five per cent of the vote counted, Walker has acquired greater than 1.7 million votes, or 48.6 per cent of the whole forged. How may so many Georgians have voted for such a flawed candidate? The reply lies within the polarization of the present second; the Peach State’s demographics; and an tried rescue mission by a preferred Republican governor…. Kemp’s late endorsement helps clarify why so many Republicans did prove for Walker once more, but it surely wasn’t sufficient to restore the self-inflicted harm he’d already finished….. In an surroundings of hyper-partisanship and all-out political warfare, particular person candidates nonetheless matter.”

GA: “OnPolitics: How did the GOP lose Georgia? Walker, Trump affect value Senate seat” [USA Today]. “‘Trump is the large loser,’ pollster Frank Luntz stated within the wake of the Republicans’ newest loss in a significant political race. ‘One after the other, his handpicked candidates for Senate flopped. I can’t keep in mind a time when the surroundings for Republicans was so good and but the outcomes have been so dangerous.’”

2024

“Trump hosts Mar-a-Lago occasion with outstanding QAnon, Pizzagate conspiracy theorist” [The Hill]. “Liz Crokin, a former journalist and celeb gossip author now related to far-right conspiracy theories, spoke at a fundraiser meant to fight little one trafficking, based on posts on her Telegram account. On the occasion, Crokin stated she mentioned Pizzagate, a debunked conspiracy idea suggesting Hillary and Invoice Clinton and different political elites run a baby intercourse trafficking ring at a pizza store in Washington. She additionally mentioned the style firm Balenciaga, which has lately taken warmth for a photograph marketing campaign that includes kids and plush bears with BDSM equipment. Trump, who final month declared himself a 2024 presidential candidate, made an look on the occasion. ‘You’re unimaginable folks and doing unbelievable work,’ he stated in a video shared by Crokin. ‘We simply respect you being right here and I hope you’re going to be again.’” • How unusual that we’re not seeing any liberal Democrats speeding to Balenciaga’s protection.

Republican Funhouse

“Kevin McCarthy faces debt-limit dilemma as Home GOP ratchets up calls for amid speaker bid” [CNN]. “Home Republicans are plotting ways for his or her new majority and weighing easy methods to use their leverage to enact a laundry listing of calls for, with many zeroing in on a problem with huge financial implications: Elevating the nation’s borrowing restrict. aIt’s a problem confronting Home GOP Chief Kevin McCarthy, who’s rounding up the votes to win the Home speaker race and going through strain from a few of his colleagues to extra forcefully element how he plans to deal with the delicate subject earlier than they determine whether or not to assist him on January 3 for probably the most highly effective place in Congress. In interviews with CNN, greater than two dozen Home GOP lawmakers laid out their calls for to keep away from the nation’s first-ever debt default, starting from new immigration insurance policies to imposing deep home spending cuts. And several other Republicans flatly stated they’d oppose elevating the borrowing restrict even when all their calls for have been met, making McCarthy’s slender path even narrower. ‘I’m a no, it doesn’t matter what,” Rep. Tim Burchett, a Tennessee Republican, stated of elevating the debt ceiling.” • So Democrats ought to abolish the debt ceiling. In fact, they gained’t. For one factor, they’ll fundraise off the cuts.

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, evidently persons are truly studying the back-dated submit! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are numerous updates. So I must do this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Social gathering (“the Democrat Social gathering is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated submit, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “stay” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Social gathering is, in truth, a tough drawback. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Social gathering is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Social gathering didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” in fact.) Second, all of the working components of the Social gathering reinforce one another. Go away apart characterizing the relationships between parts of the Social gathering (ka-ching, however not completely) these parts comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with belongings within the press and the intelligence group.

Observe, in fact, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is restricted by different courses; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

“Hakeem Jeffries and the Railroad Employees” [Black Agenda Report]. “The Black Agenda Report group is proud to have coined the phrases “Black misleadership class” and “Black political class.” These phrases can’t be uttered and written too actually because they identify and disgrace the individuals who work alongside the neoliberal and imperialist order in the USA whereas additionally pretending to behave on behalf of Black folks, whose wants are antithetical to these of the oligarchy. Congressional Black Caucus member Hakeem Jeffries is the Black politico of the second and his rise is a cautionary story which should be adopted carefully…. If Biden wished the railroad staff to have sick days, there was a easy strategy to go about doing that. He may simply signal an government order. In 2015 Barack Obama signed such an order requiring all federal contractors to offer paid sick time however railroad staff have been particularly excluded. All Biden has to do is signal a brand new one which requires that railroad staff be included on this rule… Jeffries loves the theater as a lot as the remainder of his colleagues. Taking a knee in any respect the suitable picture alternatives whereas serving the pursuits of police or the Israeli state or railroad barons made him the right candidate for a management place. Nancy Pelosi’s time was up. A brand new face was wanted, a youthful face, and sure a Black one from an enormous metropolis. Who higher to provide the impression that change was afoot when it truly wasn’t. Jeffries will probably be prepared the following time his companies are wanted to crush staff or do one thing else that the ruling class requires of him. The Black first is all too usually an individual who’s co-opted or who is solely formidable and is aware of easy methods to play the sport.” • Yep.

#COVID19

Lambert right here: Eric Topol has referred to as a winter surge (or “wave”) of Covid. I’m however a humble tapewatcher, however I’m reluctant to take action. (Partly as a result of I do know my temperament, and I’ve sturdy priors. So “I gained’t as a result of all of me desires to,” as Sam Spade says.) Topol’s view is the institution view: Hospital-centric. Mine is infection-centric. I don’t see the acceleration or doubling in instances that I might count on to see based mostly on previous surges. Granted, Boston (wastewater) is accelerating New York (hospitalization) is growing, they’re good information, and so they might be main indicators (which is why I selected them). They is also flashes within the pan. (Maybe I must take a rigorous take a look at wastewater, as for instance in San Francisco (charts take without end to load).) So we’ll see. Let’s wait and see what the rest of the vacation season brings. Reader dialogue on this necessary level is welcome. However–

Keep protected on the market: Excessive transmission (CDC), the elevation of positivity (Walgreens), the regular takeover of BQ.1* (CDC; Walgreens), together with elevated hospitalization in BQ.1* hotbed New York, plus a wastewater surge in Boston are all greater than a little bit unsettling (as is the obvious proliferation of variants). As one may count on at the start of a vacation surge, wastewater in Queens County, NY (JFK/LGA), Cook dinner County, IL (ORD), and Los Angeles County (LAX) continues to be elevated. If you’re planning to journey on Xmas, do take into account your plans rigorously.

• Nonetheless in humble tapewatcher mode, let’s assume that wastewater is an efficient proxy for actual case numbers (see subsequent hyperlink). Right here is Biobot’s chart of wastewater and medical instances from the start of the pandemic:

(NOTE I don’t run Biobot commonly as a result of I don’t like their unexplained backward revisions. However “assume”). If we glance solely at wastewater (the blue curve) we see would assume that medical case numbers are actually, and have been for some months, kind of at a plateau, and in reality on the similar stage as each peak earlier than Biden’s climactic, Omicron-driven peak of December 2021, because the gray “Fauci line” reveals. And now the curve is rising.

For all of the peaks as much as March 20, 2022, medical case numbers and wastewater tracked very carefully. Now they now not do; they’ve radically diverged. I’d must dig into why, however I’m unsure it’s residence testing, as a result of residence check kits have been accessible in 2021. It may be that Administration messaging modified. “Airways, journey teams ask Biden administration to drop Covid testing earlier than worldwide flights” (CNBC, February 2, 2022). “States Lead the Solution to ‘New Regular’ With Biden Administration Mum on Coronavirus Steering” (US Information, February 10, 2021). “The politics of attending to the following part of the coronavirus pandemic” (NPR, February 17, 2022). “Are we actually finished with masking?” (CNBC, March 2, 2022). “Nationwide Nurses United ‘outraged’ over CDC’s rolled-back masks steering” (Might 17, 2022). Maybe, of their totality, the administration’s transfer to “Let ‘er rip” messaging additionally conveyed to the general public that Covid was, certainly, “only a flu.” Therefore, no medical instances. (It’s additionally costly and harmful to get entangled with the well being care system.)

• ”Citywide wastewater SARS-CoV-2 ranges strongly correlated with a number of illness surveillance indicators and outcomes over three COVID-19 waves” [Science of the Total Environment]. From the Summary: “Right here, we current an 86-week lengthy surveillance research that covers three main COVID-19 surges. Metropolis-wide SARS-CoV-2 RNA viral hundreds in wastewater have been measured throughout 39 wastewater therapy crops and in comparison with different illness metrics for the town of Houston, TX. We present that wastewater ranges are strongly correlated with positivity charge, syndromic surveillance charges of COVID-19 visits, and COVID-19-related common mattress use charges at hospitals.”

• And nonetheless in humble tapewatcher mode, one other CDC chart I don’t run commonly as a result of it’s complicated. CDC explains easy methods to learn it: “If extra space on the chart is shaded mild or darkish blue, it means virus ranges have been reducing at extra websites at that time limit. If extra space on the chart is shaded crimson or orange, it means virus ranges have been growing at extra websites at that time limit”:

(The information is smoothed over 15 days.) On the backside of the chart, you’ll discover that the variety of websites in crimson — these with massive will increase in virus ranges — has the sort of accelerating curve I’m involved about. Nonetheless, on the high, you’ll discover a black line dropping precipitously: That is the variety of websites sampled. So, simply when we have to have one of the best information, our pattern goes dangerous (thanks, CDC). In the event you go all the way down to the map within the Wastewater part, additionally, you will see that the big variety of websites — gray dots — that aren’t sending information in any respect (thanks once more), in addition to huge swathes of the nation within the South, the border states, the plains states, and the mountain states that aren’t sending information in any respect (thanks as soon as extra).

• ”BC Hasn’t Discovered A lot from the Pandemic” [The Tyee (C.O.)]. “The COVID-19 Classes Discovered Assessment, an operational evaluate of the provincial authorities’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, was submitted to Public Security Minister and Solicitor Normal Mike Farnworth on Sept. 23…. For all its strengths, Classes Discovered has some obvious omissions. Charlie Smith, former editor of the Georgia Straight, posted outcomes on his Substack of a phrase search he’d finished on the Classes Discovered report: not as soon as does it point out phrases like ‘airborne,’ ‘mind damage,’ ‘cardiovascular’ and ‘extra mortality.’ ‘Lengthy COVID’ will get one passing point out. But we have now recognized for a very long time that COVID-19 is an airborne heart problems that causes mind damage and different results in individuals who contract even “delicate” instances. (I’d add that the report, like the federal government, makes use of “restrictions,” a pejorative time period, when “protections” would have been extra correct.)” • Yet another for Bonnie Henry’s file. (I maintain making jokes in regards to the Hague Tribunal, however I’m wondering if there’s actually a idea of the case.)

•ª ”Jenna Ortega Had COVID Whereas Filming Her Iconic Wednesday Dance Scene” [Teen Vogue]. “Understandably, the revelation has shocked many viewers, who’ve voiced their criticisms on-line.” • Good. A little bit crack within the wall of propaganda. It’s not inconceivable.

• Maskstravaganza:

This pyscho has no idea that danger to others may enter into his calculation. From his bio, Frieden is — as one may count on — a “Former @CDCgov director and @nycHealthy commissioner.” And the kicker: “Targeted on saving lives.” Properly, no. The rot within the (hegemonic) PMC goes very, very deep.

• “A bug I simply can’t shake”:

Psychological laziness as a type of denial?

“Why We’re All Forgetting Issues Proper Now” [Wall Street Journal]. From April, nonetheless germane. “We’re dwelling in yet one more second of huge change as we return to workplaces, create new routines and discover our footing in yet one more new regular. (And don’t neglect a scary conflict in Europe on high of that.) All this modification consumes cognitive vitality, usually far more than we predict, neuroscientists say. It’s no surprise we will’t keep in mind what we had for breakfast. Our minds are fighting transition moments…. The power and cumulative stress of the previous two years has taken its toll, too…. The deluge of knowledge coming at us on a number of channels is cluttering our brains, too…. Then there’s the sameness of our lives in the course of the pandemic. How are we supposed to recollect a particular occasion when every day was precisely the identical as each different?” • Completely no point out of neurological harm from Covid, even from delicate instances, and particularly from repeated infections. ‘Tis a puzzlement!

Transmission

Right here is CDC’s interactive map by county set to group transmission (the “crimson map”). (That is the map CDC wants only hospitals to look at, not you.)

Lambert right here: The powers-that-be don’t even see transmission as an issue, clearly. However you may!

• “L.A. County going through a full-blown coronavirus surge as instances double, deaths rise” [Los Angeles Times]. “Los Angeles County seems within the midst of one other full-blown coronavirus surge, with instances doubling since Thanksgiving. The spike — which partially captures however seemingly doesn’t totally replicate exposures over the Thanksgiving vacation — is prompting more and more pressing requires residents to rise up so far on their vaccines and take into account taking different preventive steps to stymie viral transmission and extreme sickness. Additionally on the rise is the variety of coronavirus-positive sufferers being cared for in hospitals, sparking issues about renewed stress on the area’s healthcare system and elevating the specter of an indoor public masks mandate if the tendencies proceed, presumably shortly after New Yr’s Day.” • Why on earth is an “indoor public masks mandate” a “spectre”? What’s incorrect with these folks? (In the meantime, I’ve been yelling about LAX wastewater for awhile; right here’s affirmation.)

Positivity

From the Walgreen’s check positivity tracker, printed December 5:

0.9%. Distinct slackening (keep in mind, this information is smoothed). Then once more, because the gray Fauci Line reveals, we’re on the similar stage immediately as we have been within the final peak (besides in fact this time the pandemic is “over”).

Wastewater

Wastewater information (CDC), December 4:

JFK/LGA, Queens County remains to be crimson; ORD, Cook dinner County is orange; LAX, Los Angeles County now crimson. I might guess that speckling of crimson in Utah is sky nation. Keep protected when travelling.

December 3:

And MWRA information, December 5:

Lambert right here: Reducing.

Variants

Lambert right here: It’s past irritating how gradual the variant information is. Does no person within the public well being institution get a promotion for monitoring variants? Are there no grants? Is there a single lab that does this work, and everyone will get the outcomes from them? [grinds teeth, bangs head on desk]. UPDATE Sure. See NC right here on Pango. Each Friday, a stately, educational tempo totally incompatible with defending your self towards a variant exhibiting doubling conduct.

NOT UPDATED Variant information, nationwide (Walgreens), November 19:

Lambert right here: BQ.1* dominating. XBB arising on the surface.

NOT UPDATED Variant information, nationwide (CDC), November 12 (Nowcast off):

BQ.1* transferring alongside fairly briskly. Observe the looks of XBB, and see the highlighted word: Like BQ.1*, XBB seems all of a sudden when CDC decides to disaggregate the info. Precisely as with CDC’s notorious “inexperienced map,” a lag is launched, this time by CDC’s decision-making course of; Walgreens had XBB final week, however CDC has it solely this week. I don’t see what objective the aggregation serves. If the problem is a jillion low-circulation variants would make the desk impossibly lengthy and complicated for customers, that’s a UI/UX situation; deal with it with software program. Have a slider/filter that aggregates variants below 1%, say. Permit scrolling the outcomes. No matter. However cease concealing information!

New York/New Jersey (Area 2) numbers are increased. BQ.1.* is dominating:

• As a verify, since New York is a BQ.1* hotbed, New York hospitalization, up to date December 6:

Lambert right here: I see a seamless enhance, however not acceleration.

Deaths

Loss of life charge (Our World in Information):

Complete: 1,108,815 – 1,107,794 = 1021 (1021 * 365 = 372,665 deaths per 12 months, immediately’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “dwelling with” Covid (fairly a bit increased than the minimizers would really like, although they’ll discuss themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I could must determine that is what the powers-that-be take into account “mission completed” for this specific tranche of loss of life and illness).

It’s good that for deaths I’ve a easy, day by day chart that simply retains chugging alongside, in contrast to every part else CDC and the White Home are screwing up or letting go darkish, good job.

Stats Watch

Retail: “Tips on how to Take the Friction Out of Commerce | Case Examine” [Business of Fashion]. “In bodily shops, retailers within the US alone collectively lose greater than $30 billion yearly attributable to lengthy queues, based on a 2018 estimate by Adyen, a monetary know-how platform. On-line, the issues are much more pronounced. Baymard Institute, which conducts analysis on the consumer expertise (UX) of e-commerce websites, estimates that on-line retailers within the US and EU lose round $260 billion in orders attributable to their checkout move and design. And Baymard just isn’t the one one to place a billion-dollar price ticket on the issue. Coresight Analysis, an advisory agency specialising in retail and know-how, lately discovered that US on-line retailers are dropping between $111 billion and $136 billion in gross sales attributable to a less-than-optimal checkout. A part of the problem stems from manufacturers and retailers failing to optimise for shifting buying behaviours. Even earlier than pandemic lockdown restrictions drove e-commerce’s phenomenal progress, shopper patterns have been already clear. Now, for instance, a great deal of buying takes place throughout gaps within the day, when persons are between duties and shopping on their telephones or laptops. Would-be prospects can simply be interrupted by emails, telephone messages or their bodily surroundings and may develop into annoyed with having to fill out too many fields or create an account to make a purchase order. The excellent news is that even small enhancements in measures like conversion charges and common order values can have a significant impression when multiplied throughout hundreds or hundreds of thousands of shoppers. To succeed, retailers are turning to instruments and companies that assist them clean the trail to buy.”

Tech: “Texas turns into newest state to ban TikTok on authorities units” [Axios]. “A rising variety of GOP-led states are barring state workers and contractors from utilizing TikTok on government-issued units because the FBI warns of attainable threats to nationwide safety posed by the Chinese language-owned social media platform. Texas grew to become the newest to take action on Wednesday, becoming a member of South Dakota, South Carolina and Maryland, all of which banned the app on authorities units previously week. Wisconsin Republicans are urging their Democratic governor to do the identical. ‘[U]nder China’s 2017 Nationwide Intelligence Legislation, all companies are required to help China in intelligence work together with information sharing, and TikTok’s algorithm has already censored subjects politically delicate to the Chinese language Communist Social gathering,’ Texas Gov. Greg Abbott stated in a letter to state officers Wednesday.” • As a result of children lately, all they care about is the Yellow Peril.

Tech: “Pentagon splits $9bn cloud computing contract amongst tech giants” [Financial Times]. “Amazon had accused Trump of placing strain on the Pentagon to “screw” its founder, Jeff Bezos, and award the contract to its rival due to the previous president’s private animus. Oracle had claimed the single-vendor contract was unfair, whereas Google had withdrawn its bid in 2018 following a employees outcry for working with the DoD.” • “Inform your pals I don’t need rather a lot. Simply sufficient to moist my beak. Don’t be afraid to inform them!” –Don Fanucci, Godfather II.

Right this moment’s Concern & Greed Index: 60 Greed (earlier shut: 59 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 69 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Dec 7 at 1:37 PM EST.

Xmas Pregame Festivities

“110 Distinctive Merry Christmas Needs to Write in a Card” [Good Housekeeping]. • Feed this to ChatGPT.

Photograph E-book

“Looking for Saul Leiter” [FlakPhoto]. “I used to be late to the sport when it comes to Leiter. My first expertise along with his work was in 2006 when Lisa Hostetler staged an exhibition of his coloration images on the Milwaukee Artwork Museum. Leiter’s winter image was within the press package, and I used to be instantly hooked. I beloved its painterly qualities and the way it appeared like a dream. I come again to this image usually and solely lately observed that Saul seems to have wiped a number of the condensation from the window earlier than making the picture. Discuss seeing!” • Many photos from Leiter, and sources.

Our Famously Free Press

“The free encyclopedia that anybody can edit“:

And:

Well being Care

“Limits of ‘Fauci impact’: infectious illness candidates plummet, and hospitals are scrambling” [STAT]. “The dearth of medical doctors getting into ID fellowships — and the following scarcity of those specialists — has been a priority for years, with specialists pointing to the comparatively low earnings these physicians make as a significant disincentive for medical doctors contemplating which area to enter. However this 12 months’s numbers marked a backslide. Absolutely 1 / 4 of obtainable positions went unfilled. Among the many fellowship applications, 44% didn’t fill their slots, based on information from the Nationwide Resident Matching Program. ‘You’ll be able to’t sugarcoat it, are you able to?’ stated Lisa Chirch, the ID fellowship director at UConn Well being.” • Arduous work, decrease pay, and (speculating freely) promotion blocked by reactionary mossback droplet goons. Who wants it?

Zeitgeist Watch

“Axios End Line: Rise of kinless older Individuals” [Axios]. “There’s a rising inhabitants of seniors who’re getting older alone — with none shut household round them. There are practically one million Individuals over the age of 55 dwelling with no partner or a accomplice, any kids or siblings. That’s as a result of boomers have decrease marriage charges than their mother and father did, and extra of them have remained childless. On high of that, the divorce charge amongst {couples} who’ve crossed 50 has risen Charges of kinlessness are projected to develop as generations youthful than boomers are even likelier to be getting older alone. Kinless older of us are much less prone to take part in group teams, sports activities or non secular organizations — actions that stimulate the physique and the mind. And so they’re much less prone to obtain the care and assist across the residence that they want. Consequently, kinless older adults die sooner.”

“The Folks Cheering For Humanity’s Finish” [The Atlantic]. “From Silicon Valley boardrooms to rural communes to educational philosophy departments, a seemingly inconceivable thought is being critically mentioned: that the tip of humanity’s reign on Earth is imminent, and that we must always welcome it. The revolt towards humanity remains to be new sufficient to look outlandish, but it surely has already unfold past the fringes of the mental world, and within the coming years and many years it has the potential to remodel politics and society in profound methods…. The primary is Anthropocene anti-humanism, impressed by revulsion at humanity’s destruction of the pure surroundings…. Transhumanism, against this, glorifies a number of the very issues that anti-humanism decries—scientific and technological progress, the supremacy of cause. But it surely believes that the one manner ahead for humanity is to create new types of clever life that may now not be Homo sapiens.” • I don’t use the phrase “loss of life cult” that usually, however maybe I ought to begin. The precise perspective we must always count on from The Atlantic: “It’s simpler to think about the tip of the world than the tip of capitalism.” –Mark Fisher, Capitalist Realism: Is There No Different?

Talking of loss of life cults:

Class Warfare

“Unique: Delta gives pilots hefty pay raises as unions flex bargaining energy” [Reuters]. “Delta Air Traces (DAL.N) has supplied a 34% cumulative pay enhance to its pilots over three years in a brand new contract, demonstrating the bargaining energy aviators are having fun with in a short-staffed business with booming journey demand.” • Journey demand and enterprise travellers.

Actual shortage within the Congo:

Right here, the shortage is synthetic. The specified outcomes are the identical.

“Analysis Letter: Affiliation between lengthy COVID signs and employment standing” (preprint) [medRxiv]. n = 15,307. “: Lengthy COVID was related to a higher probability of unemployment and lesser probability of working full time in adjusted fashions. Presence of cognitive signs was related to diminished probability of working full time.”

Social capital:

Information of the Wired

“Driver Trapped for Extra Than 300 Miles on Freeway After Cruise Management Breaks” [The Drive]. • Nice metaphor.

“This American food regimen may add 10 years to your life” [National Geographic]. “There may be one other American food regimen, one that would truly enhance your life expectancy by as much as 10 years and, in some instances, reverse illness. It’s not a fad food regimen invented by a South Seaside physician, a paleo food regimen marketer, or a social media influencer. This food regimen was developed by bizarre Individuals, is broadly reasonably priced, is sustainable, and has a decrease carbon footprint than a meat-heavy food regimen. Most necessary, it’s hearty and scrumptious, developed over centuries by fusing flavors from the Outdated and New Worlds in ingenious and uniquely American methods…. We begin in New England, wanting on the conventional meals of the Wampanoag Native Individuals…. Although the Wampanoag hunted recreation and picked up mussels and oysters, 70 p.c of their food regimen got here from plant sources…. Chinese language American girls dwelling in Hawaii get pleasure from about 90 years of life expectancy, and the food regimen of Chinese language Individuals dwelling there helps such longevity. (Wish to stay longer? Affect your genes.) Since Southeast Asians started arriving in Hawaii over 170 years in the past as agricultural staff, every ethnic group has launched its personal flavors and components. The Chinese language introduced leafy cabbage, soybean merchandise, and teas. The Japanese, miso and their very own model of tofu. The Filipinos, tender suggestions of many crops similar to squash and pumpkin. This melding of meals and cooking methods has made Hawaii the place to expertise Asian fusion delicacies that’s primarily plant based mostly…. African Individuals dwelling within the Deep South have an extended custom of consuming blue-zones-type meals. What started as a largely plant-based West African food regimen morphed with native Native American and European influences to provide a singular and vividly scrumptious delicacies. Dietary surveys going again to the Eighteen Nineties point out that almost all meals eaten by southern African Individuals have been greens and grains. Other than salt pork added for taste, animal merchandise performed a minor position.” • “Eat meals. Not an excessive amount of. Largely crops.” –Michael Pollan.

Contact data for crops: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a verify in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photos of crops. Greens are positive! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you would like your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it at first of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From EM:

EM writes: “Right here we have now Mushrooms rising along with Raspberries and Strawberries. You’ll be able to see the mychrozial community when you look carefully. It’s a Lion King-esque circle of life.”

Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not coated by the annual NC fundraiser. So when you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see anyplace else, please don’t hesitate to precise your appreciation in tangible type. Keep in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common constructive suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. After I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get fearful. Extra tangibly, a continuing trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I consider that trickle when setting fundraising objectives:

Right here is the display that may seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

In the event you hate PayPal, you possibly can e mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I provides you with instructions on easy methods to ship a verify. Thanks!