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@TBPInvictus right here. (Additionally on Submit and Mastodon).
Completely satisfied holidays to all, and the most effective for 2023. It’s been a scorching minute since my final put up, hope I bear in mind how this factor works.
I’ve been an enormous fan of Twitter for properly over a decade. It’s a hearth hose of invaluable data from numerous dependable (in case your follows are strong) purveyors of all method of reports, on each matter conceivable, from each nook of the globe. It has been disheartening, to say the least, to observe the vivisection Elon Musk is acting on it since closing his buy in October.
Watching Musk’s ongoing antics, it has change into very clear to me that his actions usually are not solely destroying Twitter, however the collateral harm is taking Tesla down with it – a veritable twofer of ineptitude and rake-stepping.
Let’s take a look at some numbers:
The state of NY maintains a terrific catalog of information that may be discovered right here. Drill down a bit and we get to Car, Snowmobile, and Boat Registrations. Filtering, we study that there are ~48,795 Teslas registered within the state. We’ll do some additional work on that in a bit, however let’s put it apart for now.
The state of NY (clearly) additionally retains data of election outcomes. One such web page will be discovered right here.
Do you see the place that is going?
My thesis is that in Musk’s newfound need to own the Libs, he’s alienating the very individuals who have overwhelmingly been consumers of his EVs. The right way to validate this thesis? Effectively, let’s take a look at knowledge for the state of New York from three distinct datasets: Census Bureau provides us inhabitants by county, the state provides us a breakdown of 2020 election outcomes (see above), and one other state database provides us (as however certainly one of a really spectacular catalog) automobile registrations (once more, see above).
The desk above incorporates the highest 10 and backside 10 Trump-voting NY counties within the 2020 election, displaying the share of Trump voters, the inhabitants, the variety of TSLA registrations, and critically, TSLA registrations per 10k inhabitants. The outcome:.
Adjusted for inhabitants, Teslas are ~5x extra frequent in closely Democratic counties than they’re in closely Republican counties.
The info above in all probability play a task within the efficiency of TSLA’s inventory, which was $328 on the day Musk introduced his intention to purchase Twitter (see under).
Musk is doing himself no favors. In reality, it’s onerous to think about how he could possibly be doing extra harm to each properties than he at the moment is, however I don’t wish to underestimate him.
My good friend Nick Hanauer has apparently seen sufficient; I’m certain he’s not alone.
Extra charts after the leap…
See additionally:
An EV Shopping for Information for Individuals Fed Up With Tesla’s Elon Musk (Bloomberg, December 19, 2022)
I’m a Tesla Investor. Elon Musk Is a Hazard to the Firm. (TDB, December 20, 2022)
Beforehand:
Get Your self Some “No Males” (December 19, 2022)
What’s Ailing Tesla’s Inventory? (October 17, 2022)
BR right here, leaping in from vacay so as to add a number of extra charts.
I’ve been amazed for fairly a while by the value motion in Tesla, and genuinely perplexed about Musk.
Charles Gaba picked up the place Invictus left off, making use of the same evaluation to a couple completely different states. He confirmed the fundamental premise if Musk proudly owning the Libs is a self-own, a weird approach of alienating most of Tesla’s core homeowners and future potential consumers.
“Counties the place Trump received < 30% of the vote in 2020 registered *60x* as many Teslas PER CAPITA than counties the place he obtained >70%.” (not 60 p.c, however 60 occasions!)
Right here is the chart of California:
Gaba carried out the identical evaluation on 6 states (with the caveat that every state manages its knowledge considerably in another way).
Its much less dramatic than California alone, however the general conclusion is the same: In states as diversified as California, Florida, Montana, New York, Tennessee & Virginia, representing 98M folks or ~30% of the U.S. inhabitants, Tesla registrations are 6.7x greater in counties the place Trump obtained lower than 30% of the vote than counties the place he obtained > 70% of the vote.
Take pleasure in what’s left of 2022, its one for the file books…
~~~
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