2:00PM Water Cooler 1/24/2023 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Hen Music of the Day

Assorted Thrush, Snohomish, Washington, United States
Media from this location Illustrated Guidelines. “Pure vocalization. Music from a male hen perched on the highest of a tall leafless deciduous tree. Spacing between notes a lot nearer collectively than regular music; maybe that is daybreak music (although no such vocalization is described in BNA) or subsong.” Subsong?

Politics

“However what’s authorities itself, however the best of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51

“Right here’s meals for thought, had Ahab time to suppose; however Ahab by no means thinks; he solely feels, feels, feels” –Herman Melville, Moby Dick

“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are the truth is a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Biden Administration

“Biden Brings in a Marketing consultant” [Franklin Foer, The Atlantic]. “In most press accounts in regards to the impending appointments, Zients’s major bond to Biden is the time he spent because the White Home COVID czar—an intense 15 months, throughout which they masterfully rolled out vaccines after which generally sputtered of their quest to conquer the pandemic. However one other expertise will inform their relationship—a relationship that arguably will dictate the contours and decide the success of the final two years of Biden’s time period.” “Generally sputtered”? When the adults within the room slaughtered extra People than Trump? Extra: “The place Klain not often hesitates to steer into an argument, Zients cuts a extra genteel presence. He likes to invoke managerial maxims. (He tells employees that they need to “run over the hill,” by which he means they need to err on the aspect of overreacting and overplanning.) Guided by acute emotional intelligence, he cultivates an aura of humility. He kinds himself a mere facilitator, an issue solver who prefers to maintain issues easy by relentlessly specializing in the few issues that matter.” • Rattling. What’s that slurping sound? Commentary:

The reply to this ought to be that Zients is a supreme bullshit artist with no respect for human life who has a demonstrated capacity to implement insurance policies with catastrophic horrific outcomes and someway obtain primarily zero criticism from anybody with any form of energy pic.twitter.com/f0pEdRi39R

— wsbgnl (@wsbgnl) January 23, 2023

“Biden’s Subsequent Chief of Employees Is a Catastrophe within the Making” [Jeet Heer, The Nation]. The scum additionally rises: “On Sunday, a number of information shops introduced that Zients was about to be tapped to be the brand new White Home chief of employees, changing Ron Klain, who has introduced that he’s stepping down…. In a be aware to me, Hauser summed up the case in opposition to Zients: ‘Biden at his greatest has picked battles with company America, from the tax plan funding the IRA to appointing regulators like Rohit Chopra, Gary Gensler, and Lina Khan to tackle predatory conduct. With restricted legislative prospects over the following 24 months, Biden can solely attain populist bona fides in opposition to populist wannabes Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump by unleashing the manager department in opposition to company miscreants. Sadly, lots of the most promising targets for Government Department scrutiny are industries Zients has gotten wealthy from, together with non-public fairness, well being care, and Huge Tech. Will Zients activate folks like himself, or will he acknowledge implicitly that his riches got here at society’s expense and unleash the Government Department to implement present limits on company greed stringently?’ If appointed, Jeffrey Zients would be the White Home chief of employees as Biden gears up for reelection in 2024. The strongest case in opposition to Zients is a straightforward political one. How will Biden be capable of current himself because the champion of working People when his chief of employees is a plutocrat whose firms have a popularity for preying on People in moments of medical emergency? Zients would supply an irresistible goal for Republicans. His elevation to the publish of chief of employees is an unforced error.” • Holy moley, Zeints would possibly wish to bust the railroad unions!

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, evidently persons are truly studying the back-dated publish! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are lots of updates. So I must try this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Social gathering (“the Democrat Social gathering is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated publish, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “stay” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Social gathering is, the truth is, a tough drawback. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the way in which again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Social gathering is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Social gathering didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working elements of the Social gathering reinforce one another. Go away apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Social gathering (ka-ching, however not solely) these components comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence group.

Notice, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different courses; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

*** crickets ***

Gonna go forward and say there’s a reasonably main problem w the US left when life expectancy appears like this and lots of main left orgs, media shops, politicians and activists not solely don’t have anything to say about it however are actually defending Biden over weak ppl , pls be critical pic.twitter.com/EuNCdAam9p

— Julia Marie (@julia_doubleday) January 23, 2023

“Rebranding rift guts Blue Canine Dem ranks” [Politico]. “Congress’ influential Blue Canine Coalition is getting chopped almost in half after an inner blow-up over whether or not to rebrand the centrist Democratic group. Seven of the 15 members anticipated to affix the Blue Canines this yr, together with Reps. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) and Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.), are departing after a heated disagreement over a possible identify change for the average bloc. For now that’s left the Blue Canines with seven, all male members — their smallest roster in almost three a long time of existence. One freshman member stays undecided. On the core of a number of the breakaway Blue Canines’ calls for was a rechristening because the Widespread Sense Coalition that, they argued, would have helped shed the group’s popularity as a socially average, Southern “boys’ membership.” Blue Canines have lengthy stood for fiscal accountability and nationwide safety, points with broad Democratic attraction, however some members felt the identify had a adverse connotation that stored their colleagues from becoming a member of. A majority of different members disagreed, saying they noticed no motive to toss out a longstanding legacy.” • It’s the circle of life. These guys by no means final; Rahm Emmanuel’s crop failed, too. They get in, hinder, and lose as a result of they suck. Hilarously, .

RussiaGate

“Charles McGonigal, indicted ex-FBI head, helped set off ‘Russiagate’ probe” [New York Post]. “The previous FBI official busted Monday for allegedly taking unlawful overseas funds performed a key position within the bureau’s controversial ‘Russiagate’ probe of former President Donald Trump — and a ‘defensive briefing’ of ex-rival Hillary Clinton’s legal professionals. Charles ‘Charlie’ McGonigal, 54, was among the many first FBI officers to be taught that Trump marketing campaign adviser George Papadopoulos informed an Australian diplomat that Russia had ‘political filth’ on Clinton. FBI Deputy Assistant Director Jonathan Moffa informed Senate Judiciary Committee staffers in 2020 that he obtained a July 2016 e-mail from McGonigal which ‘contained primarily that reporting, which then served as the idea for the opening of the case.’ The FBI investigation, dubbed ‘Crossfire Hurricane,’ led to the appointment of particular counsel Robert Mueller and a 22-month, $32 million probe of Russian meddling within the 2016 election and potential ties to associates of Trump, now 76. Shortly earlier than Mueller was appointed, McGonigal additionally despatched a message to an FBI colleague that mentioned how brokers had been interviewing one other Trump marketing campaign adviser, Carter Web page.” • McGonigal appears to have been a busy man:

2/ McGonical, a former NY FBI agent allegedly labored for Oleg Deripaska after Deripaska was sanctioned in 2018, which calls into query his ethics in 2016 as nicely. https://t.co/K2AdRkDOvY

— jennycohn@toad.social ✍🏻 📢 (@jennycohn1) January 23, 2023

Realignment and Legitimacy

“The Altering Face of Ignorance” [Emily C.R. Tilton, New Work in Philosophy]. “In the present day’s feminists are nicely conscious of those dangers and are striving to make feminism extra inclusive; they’re rightly petrified of repeating previous errors. Nonetheless, a well-liked technique adopted in mild of this concern is irritating feminist targets, fairly than facilitating them. This technique includes invoking what I name the sturdy epistemic drawback thesis (SEDT) to justify opting out of discussing intersectional types of oppression (Tilton forthcoming). The SEDT holds that dominant social positions place sturdy, substantive limits on what the socially dominant can learn about oppression that they don’t personally expertise—first-personal expertise of oppression is to be taken to be needed for understanding it. With the SEDT in hand, privileged feminists are geared up with an excuse for silence: in the event that they tried to debate types of oppression that they don’t expertise, they might inevitably mess it up. Since they don’t wish to repeat previous errors, it appears greatest that they depart that work to another person…. So, the significance of intersectional work is acknowledged, however then shunted off to overburdened and underrepresented members of multiply-marginalized teams. This affords the phantasm that modern feminists are taking intersectionality critically, whereas the truth is feminist philosophy proceeds as ordinary.”

“Skepticism and human motive” [Crooked Timber]. “[W]e don’t want sturdy assumptions about particular person rationality to suppose that social reasoning processes can, beneath the appropriate circumstances, work fairly nicely…. On this account, we advance causes, not as a result of we’re logically making an attempt to puzzle out the world, however as a result of we wish to justify ourselves. Which means, amongst different issues, that our causes are sometimes illogical and at odds with the proof, in ways in which we’re ourselves incapable of seeing and understanding. Our causes are biased. Up to now, so skeptical. However the place it will get fascinating is once we begin wanting not simply at how people give causes, however how they consider causes which have been given by others. And right here, Mercier and Sperber argue that we’re fairly good. We might have ‘myside bias’ – i.e. we aren’t sharp-sighted in regards to the flaws in our personal arguments – however the experimental proof means that we’re readily in a position to see the failings within the arguments of these whom we disagree with. That in flip implies that even when particular person reasoning is mainly flawed, collective reasoning, beneath the appropriate circumstances, can work very nicely. With the appropriate sorts of group constructions, and a naked minimal of goodwill or mutual endurance, we are able to right one another’s errors, every, via frank and forthright criticism, obliging every to acknowledge the weaknesses in their very own arguments, and enhance them. …. What this suggests (as we argue within the forthcoming piece) is a form of certified optimism about democracy. When you can assemble group establishments that oblige this type of debate, whereas making it tougher for folks to cluster round their shared misconceptions, you may assemble comparatively unbiased collective reasoning on the inspiration of extremely biased particular person reasoners. After all, determining find out how to construct such establishments is a difficult analysis agenda in itself. ” • Hmm. I might think about the individuals who fund analysis agendas would have one thing to say about this? (It happens to me {that a} real left — not an NGO left — would possibly nicely have a analysis agenda of its personal. One factor the blogosphere taught or ought to have taught us — and our struggle in opposition to the landfill in Maine taught me — is that uninteresting normals can get fairly sharp at analysis.

#COVID19

Lambert right here: I’m however a humble tapewatcher, however in contrast to Eric Topol, I’m not calling a surge, as a result of the final peak was Biden’s Omicron debacle, and after an Everest like that, what’s left? Topol’s view is the institution view: Hospital-centric. Mine is infection-centric. I don’t see the common acceleration or doubling in circumstances that I might anticipate to see primarily based on previous surges.

I’m calling a “One thing Terrible.” It’s gonna be dangerous, in some new means, and we don’t know the way, but (however see right here for immune system dysregulation, which is wanting fairly terrible).

Keep protected on the market!

• It appears a number of good-thinking image manipulators are panicking in regards to the phrase “kraken,” and so are dog-piling T. Ryan Gregory, who coined the phrase:

Personally, I like “XBB.1.5”; it sounds just like the identify of a Ok-Pop band. But when establishments like WHO thinks human-readable names are good, however have determined that “Omicron is Omicron” — demonstrably not true, for the reason that variants have totally different properties — and so is failing to stay as much as its duties, then what’s so improper about others stepping in? Right here is the perfect dangerous take I noticed:

Maybe there’s a stage of French irony I missed right here, however naming variants of a deadly pathogen after painters and flowers, simply to maintain issues mild, appears…. misguided.

• “Why no Pi? Variants are nonetheless caught on Omicron whilst coronavirus continues to mutate” [CNN]. “WHO quietly stopped designating Variants of Concern or Variants of Curiosity classes that decision for brand new Greek names. As an alternative, it created a brand new class, Omicron Subvariants beneath Monitoring, to sign to public well being officers which of those spinoffs ought to be watched – which could sound loads like the explanation to designate variants of curiosity and variants of concern within the first place. The group left the door open to designate new names if it deems a variant to be sufficiently totally different, nevertheless it hasn’t seen the necessity to do this for greater than a yr. But the coronavirus has continued to evolve, turning into extra transmissible and extra immune-evasive over time. These adjustments have been consequential, too. As Omicron has mutated, for instance, immunocompromised sufferers have misplaced key therapies just like the long-acting antibodies within the preventive Evusheld. The entire monoclonal antibodies developed to assist folks with extreme Covid-19 infections have misplaced their punch in opposition to the most recent subvariants. The mRNA vaccines have additionally been up to date in an effort to raised shield folks from the at present circulating viruses that trigger Covid-19. Nonetheless, WHO says it doesn’t see a necessity to tell apart between them. ‘However the WHO has stopped naming them at this level, so [people] get a false sense of safety,’ [Bette Korber, a laboratory fellow and variant specialist at Los Alamos National Laboratory] mentioned. Persevering with to make use of the Omicron identify makes it sound just like the virus isn’t altering anymore, ‘however the truth is, it’s altering massively.’ Korber mentioned she’s been in public lectures the place ‘excellent medical doctors’ have mentioned, ‘Effectively, now it’s not evolving anymore. It’s simply been Omicron for over a yr, so that you don’t have to fret about that anymore.’”

• And the fourth — or the category from which the fourth is drawn — drives the primary three:

• Air circulation in closed areas (which is that this account’s mission in life to elucidate). Thread:

• “Adams Home Put in — Then Eliminated — an $8,900 Covid-19 Air Disinfection System” [The Crimson]. “In July, as the brand new semester loomed, directors in Adams Home put in a set of air disinfection units that seemed to be part of the answer to stopping the unfold of the virus in the home. The worth tag was simply shy of $9,000 — a diminished price. However the units — which had been put in in the home’s eating corridor and decrease frequent room — lasted just some weeks. Lower than a month into the the semester, Harvard shut them off, following a suggestion from the College’s Coronavirus Advisory Group. By the tip of December, they had been eliminated solely. The units, which resemble fluorescent lamps, use germicidal ultraviolet mild to disinfect the air. As soon as airborne pathogens are uncovered to a sure stage of UV radiation, they’ll change into inactivated and not contagious. However in response to Adams Home College Dean Salmaan Keshavjee, the College’s Covid advisory group decided that the set up of the brand new units was pointless on prime of present air flow methods. 13 UVGI items had been put in in July by AeroMed Applied sciences, which manufactures the units. UVGI has been researched and used to “eradicate airborne pathogens” for over 70 years, in response to the CDC. Adams College Dean Salmaan Keshavjee wrote in an e-mail that the choice to put in the expertise got here from a “collaboration” with one of many outgoing school deans on the time, John G. ‘Sean’ Palfrey ’67. Keshavjee, a world well being professor, wrote that research demonstrating {that a} sure sort of UV mild can inactivate viruses like Covid-19 helped inform the choice. He added that the fixtures had been in areas the place folks could be consuming with out masks: the eating corridor and decrease frequent room.” • (The units are additionally put in on the Cambridge Mates Faculty, so Cambridge — and I do know this may shock you — is rather like Newton.) Commentary:

Is sensible to me. (I don’t stan for UV as a result of I haven’t had the time to check up. However no person is suggesting this set up was hazardous in any means.(

• I genuinely don’t perceive why the idea of layered safety is so laborious to know. But such appears to be the case:

A protracted thread of references:

• “Potential long-term results of SARS-CoV-2 an infection on the pulmonary vasculature: Multilayered cross-talks within the setting of coinfections and comorbidities” [PLOS Pathogens]. “One part of the extended pathology following acute SARS-CoV-2 an infection could also be a persistently injured pulmonary vasculature.”

• “Main alterations to monocyte and dendritic cell subsets lasting greater than 6 months after hospitalization for COVID-19” [Frontiers in Immunology]. From the Summary: “[W]e present right here that alterations within the immune panorama stay greater than 6 months after extreme COVID-19, which might be indicative of ongoing therapeutic and/or persistence of viral antigens.”

Case Information

BioBot wastewater knowledge from January 23:

Lambert right here: For now, I’m going to make use of this wastewater knowledge as the perfect proxy for case knowledge (ignoring the scientific case knowledge portion of this chart, which in my opinion “goes dangerous” after March 2022, for causes as but unexplained). No less than we are able to spot tendencies, and examine present ranges to equal previous ranges.

Transmission

Right here is CDC’s interactive map by county set to group transmission (the “crimson map,” which is the map CDC wants only hospitals to look at, not you.) The map is alleged to replace Monday-Friday by 8 pm:

The earlier map:

NOTE: I shall most actually not be utilizing the CDC’s new “Group Stage” metric. As a result of CDC has mixed a number one indicator (circumstances) with a lagging one (hospitalization) their new metric is a poor warning signal of a surge, and a poor technique to assess private threat. As well as, Covid is a illness you don’t wish to get. Even in case you are not hospitalized, you may endure from Lengthy Covid, vascular points, and neurological points. That the “inexperienced map” (which Topol calls a “capitulation” and a “deception”) continues to be up and being taken critically verges on the legal.

Positivity

From the Walgreen’s check positivity tracker, printed January 24:

-1.0.%.

Wastewater

Wastewater knowledge (CDC), January 20:

Easing off, although you do should surprise what’s the purpose of a nationwide system the place half the nation has gone darkish.

January 17:

NIOT UPDATED And MWRA knowledge, January 19:

Lambert right here: Nonetheless uptick within the north. Nonetheless, just some the scholars are again; BU courses start January 19; Harvard’s January 22.

Variants

Lambert right here: It’s past irritating how sluggish the variant knowledge is. Does no person within the public well being institution get a promotion for monitoring variants? Are there no grants? Is there a single lab that does this work, and all people will get the outcomes from them? [grinds teeth, bangs head on desk]. UPDATE Sure. See NC right here on Pango. Each Friday, a stately, tutorial tempo totally incompatible with defending your self in opposition to a variant exhibiting doubling conduct.

NOT UPDATED Variant knowledge, nationwide (Walgreens), January 9:

Lambert right here: BQ.1* and XBB nonetheless dominate. Nonetheless, CH.1.91 seems for the primary time at 1.9%. That’s a bit unsettling, as a result of a Tweet in Hyperlinks, January 11 from GM drew consideration to it (“shows such a excessive relative progress benefit”) and in Water Cooler, January 18, from Nature: “CH.1.1 and CA.3.1 variants had been extremely immune to each monovalent and bivalent mRNA vaccinations.” Now right here is CH.1.1 within the Walgreens variant knowledge. Let’s see what CDC does with it tomorrow. The Covid variant prepare at all times leaves on time, and there’s at all times one other prepare coming!

Lambert right here: Wierdly, the display shot about has been changed at this time by knowledge from “10/7/2022.” (It’s clearly not present knowledge; BQ.1* and XBB don’t dominate.

NOT UPDATED Variant knowledge, nationwide (CDC), December 31 (Nowcast off):

BQ.1* takes first place. XBB developing quick. CH.1, in contrast to the Walgreens chart, doesn’t seem. (For BQ.1/XBB and vaccine escape, see right here.) Right here is Area 2, the Northeast, the place each BQ.1* and XBB are mentioned to be increased, and are:

Makes clear that Area 2 (New England) varies drastically from the nationwide common. Wouldn’t it’s fascinating if we ended up with totally different variants dominating totally different elements of the nation.

• As a examine, since New York is a BQ.1* hotbed, New York hospitalization, up to date January 19:

• Hospitalization knowledge for Queens, up to date January 20:

Deaths

Demise price (Our World in Information):

Complete: 1,129,1451 – 1,128,807 = 338 (338 * 365 = 123,370 deaths per yr, at this time’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “residing with” Covid (fairly a bit increased than the minimizers would really like, although they’ll discuss themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I may should resolve that is what the powers-that-be take into account “mission achieved” for this explicit tranche of demise and illness).

Lambert right here: Deaths lag, and now now we have some affirmation that no matter we simply went via is lowering.

It’s good that for deaths I’ve a easy, every day chart that simply retains chugging alongside, in contrast to every part else CDC and the White Home are screwing up or letting go darkish, good job.

Stats Watch

Manufacturing: “United States Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Manufacturing Exercise Index within the Richmond space decreased to -11 in January of 2023 from 1 in December, the bottom since Could 2020 and beneath market expectations of -5.”

The Bezzle: “The Crypto Business’s Favourite Financial institution Is in Deep Hassle” [New York Magazine]. “The excellent news in regards to the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s cryptocurrency empire is that its failure didn’t ship shock waves via your entire monetary system and create a contagion. A key motive is that almost all banks have refused to cope with crypto. Lately, U.S. banking regulators even discouraged them from doing so. However one small California financial institution apparently determined it was higher to threat having to beg for forgiveness than watch for permission. Lately, La Jolla–primarily based Silvergate went all in on crypto, forging relationships with greater than 1,600 gamers within the business, from hedge funds to exchanges to token tasks…. Intelligencer has obtained paperwork displaying that, along with FTX, Silvergate has been the go-to financial institution for greater than a dozen crypto firms that ended up beneath investigation, shut down, fined, or in chapter.” • So, to be clear, the regulators protected the banks, and never the poor shlubs (disproportionately Black and decrease revenue) who obtained scammed.

Tech: “Lab-grown meat strikes nearer to American dinner plates” [Reuters]. • “I’ll have that with a aspect of bugs!”

Labor Market; “Firms Reduce Temp Employees in Warning Signal for Labor Market” [Wall Street Journal]. “Employers are shedding momentary staff at a quick price, an indication that broader job losses might be on the horizon. Within the final 5 months of 2022, employers reduce 110,800 temp staff, together with 35,000 in December, the biggest month-to-month drop since early 2021. Many economists view the sector as an early indicator of future labor-market shifts. Short-term employment declined earlier than some current recessions and through financial slowdowns. Short-term staff, sometimes employed via staffing businesses, are straightforward for firms to convey on board—and let go. ‘For me, it’s an actual warning signal,’ mentioned James Knightley, chief worldwide economist at ING. ‘.’” • So the narrative drives the market, not the market the narrative? Huge if true.

In the present day’s Worry & Greed Index: 63 Greed (earlier shut: 64 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 64 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Jan 24 at 1:53 PM EST.

The Gallery

Edward Hopper?!?!?!?!?

This appears like business artwork; there’s house for textual content at left. And certainly “from about 1906 to 1925, Hopper discovered little help for his private work, and earned his residing by creating cowl and story illustrations for American periodicals.” Relatively like that different well-known American realist, Andy Warhol.

Zeitgeist Watch

The issue with SUVs is that they’re not deadly, along with being bloated:

I like that they’re promoting to “Mothers.” Keep in mind “soccer mothers”?

Information of the Wired

“Correct Pastry-Consuming Etiquette, Based on a Royal Butler” [Fresno Bee]. “‘Women and gents, please do not forget that whereas having a pastry within the morning, you solely take one,’ he says within the video.” • What. This being my day’s contribution to “Really feel Good Fresno Week.” Readers?

1492 pitch deck:

Contact info for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a examine in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photographs of crops. Greens are advantageous! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you’d like your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it initially of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From Copeland:

Copeland writes: “Latest beaver exercise on what I feel is Fraxinus latifolia (Oregon Ash) with Polystichum munitum (Western Sword Fern).”

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