2:00PM Water Cooler 4/18/2023 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Chook Track of the Day

Hermit Thrush, Acadia Nationwide Park; Southwest Harbor; The Seawall, Maine, United States. “Straight over head. Boats on bay in background. Habitat: Forest, Marine, Coniferous Forest, Bay/Harbor.” I can think about myself mendacity on the nice and cozy, mushy, fallen pine needles and listening to that tune all afternoon.

Politics

“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are actually a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Biden Administration

“4 Years into the COVID-19 Pandemic: The place We Stand” [Bill of Health]:

For causes recognized solely to themselves, however proper earlier than the State of the Union, the CDC, with out a lot warning or rationalization, modified its targets. As a substitute of monitoring circumstances to find out the chance of any particular person being contaminated, they began to trace hospital capability. Primarily, they prioritized the flexibility to hospitalize sufferers very sick from COVID over stopping preliminary infections.

However, by preserving the identical map format and persevering with to hyperlink menace ranges to colours on the map, they created a system with no cues to people or establishments when a rising variety of circumstances warranted additional precautionary measures.

In a single day, this new map, now in soothing pastel yellows and greens, relatively than the more and more darker pigments of purple and orange, pulled the rug out below each institutional and particular person measures to forestall an infection. When it comes to deception, it was the equal of the nationwide climate service quietly reversing its hurricane score system in order that 5 was the least harmful and 1 essentially the most.

So I’m not the one one to treat the Inexperienced Map as a key inflection level within the Biden Administration’s technique of mass an infection with out mitigation. Good!

“Opinion: COVID-19 stays a profound well being menace, and we should always nonetheless act like it’s” [Editorial Board, San Diego Union-Tribune]. Fairly delicate, buys into Biden’s $5 billion “Operation Warp” — since “Pace” doesn’t appear to a part of the idea — and a palty $250 million for Lengthy Covid. Concludes: “Ending the nationwide emergency doesn’t imply on a regular basis emergencies finish for hundreds of thousands of Individuals, and we shouldn’t faux that it does.” • So how come emergencies for hundreds of thousands of Individuals aren’t nationwide emergencies? What’s flawed with this image? Commentary:

Biden signed laws to finish the COVID-19 nationwide emergency declaration this week, jeopardizing healthcare/help for hundreds of thousands of Individuals and guaranteeing future waves of the virus are close to unattainable to fight.

Let’s see what main progressive accounts needed to say. 🧵

— Walker Bragman (@WalkerBragman) April 15, 2023

You guessed it. ***crickets***.

2024

“Then There Have been 9: Comer Alleges A Wider Vary of Potential Biden Beneficiaries from Potential Affect Peddling” [Jonathon Turley]. “Home Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer has revealed that there aren’t three however 9 members of the Biden household that will have benefitted from suspected affect peddling efforts…. After assuming management of [House Oversight Committee, Chairman James Comer] sought suspicious exercise stories despatched by banks to the Treasury Division alerting of potential prison exercise in transactions involving President Biden’s household.” Then there may very well be substance. Extra: “He said on Monday that ‘We’ve recognized six further members of Joe Biden’s household who might have benefited from the Biden household’s companies that we’re investigating, bringing the full variety of these concerned or benefiting to 9; These are six names are along with three Biden members of the family and two associates beforehand linked to fee from China in 2017. Three million was wired Biden household affiliate Rob Walker in March 2017, who then allegedly divided and distributed the funds later. There stays an ‘Unknown Biden’ who acquired 4 funds in 2017 totaling $70,000.” Penny ante stuff! After which, after all, there’s Hunter. Expensive Hunter! “Hunter labored together with his uncle but additionally branched off on his personal within the household enterprise. Whereas his father lately emphasised that his son was a hopeless addict, that protection stands in evident contradiction to the truth that he maintained a multimillion-dollar influence-peddling scheme. The query is why overseas figures (together with some related to overseas intelligence) rushed to him worldwide cash transfers and complicated offers price hundreds of thousands from Moscow to Kyiv to Beijing. Nevertheless, the Biden most involved would be the president himself. Joe Biden has repeatedly denied information of Hunter Biden’s enterprise entanglements regardless of quite a few emails and photos exhibiting him assembly with Hunter associates. That features at the least 19 visits to the White Home by Hunter’s accomplice, Eric Schwerin, alone between 2009 and 2015. Emails on Hunter Biden’s laptop computer make repeated reference to his father as a doable recipient of funds derived from affect peddling. Certainly, in a single e mail, Tony Bobulinski, then a enterprise accomplice of Hunter, was instructed by Biden affiliate James Gilliar that the Bidens wished to keep away from such references: ‘Don’t point out Joe being concerned, it’s solely when u [sic] are head to head, I do know u [sic] know that however they’re paranoid.’ In discussing these offers, Joe Biden is referenced with code names equivalent to ‘Celtic’ or ‘the large man.’ In a single, ‘the large man’ is mentioned as probably receiving a ten% reduce on a cope with a Chinese language power agency. There are additionally references to Hunter paying off the payments of his father from shared accounts. From his board memberships to enterprise offers to authorized charges to his artwork offers, Hunter Biden is a tour de drive of alleged corrupt practices utilized in Washington.” • Attention-grabbing.

“Why Joe Biden Has Gradual-Walked His Approach to a 2024 Run” [New York Times]. ‘Trigger if Biden walks quick, he falls down? Kidding! Buried fourteen paragraphs deep: “Cash is on the middle of the timing dialog” [Lambert sits down, stunned]. “Delaying will postpone constructing a struggle chest for the final election. These making ready to boost cash for the marketing campaign specific few doubts that the celebration’s huge donors will pony as much as again Mr. Biden, and a few officers concern an earlier entry may show to be a wheel-spinning train, demanding that the getting old president traverse the grueling fund-raising circuit earlier than mandatory. And given {that a} majority of Democrats persistently say in polls that they like somebody aside from Mr. Biden because the nominee, a dependable infusion of grass-roots {dollars} just isn’t assured — at the least till voters see the stakes of the election. Mr. Biden struggled to boost cash on-line in 2019, breaking data solely as soon as he emerged because the nominee. Mr. Biden’s advisers argue that he and the Democrats bucked political historical past — and comparable low scores — to outperform within the 2022 midterm elections, partly by relentlessly portray Republicans as extremists.”

“Ron DeSantis threatens jail close to Disney theme park in newest retaliation” [Guardian]. • I don’t see why the 2 tasks couldn’t be mixed…..

“It’s true: Rep. George Santos declares his bid for reelection” [NPR]. “U.S. Rep. George Santos, the New York Republican whose lies about his background and wealth helped propel him into workplace, introduced Monday that he’s operating for reelection. Greater than maybe any incumbent, Santos enters the race as an underdog — deserted by many fellow Republicans whereas going through investigations over a myriad of allegations about falsehoods throughout his final marketing campaign. Throughout that race, Santos portrayed himself as a graduate of prestigious schools who had gone on to have a profitable profession on Wall Road whereas amassing an actual property funding portfolio. In actuality, he didn’t go to varsity, didn’t work for the Wall Road corporations the place he claimed to have made huge offers and had struggled in recent times to pay his lease. In his marketing campaign announcement, Santos didn’t point out any of that and as an alternative highlighted his zeal in preventing for conservative principals in Washington and his background as ‘a poor boy of immigrant mother and father in Queens.’ ‘We want a fighter who is aware of the district and might serve the individuals fearlessly,’ he stated. Santos has beforehand referred to the fabrications about his background, which included mendacity about having Jewish ancestry and about having been a star volleyball participant, as innocent elaborations. Journalists have additionally uncovered different points in his previous, together with prison theft prices in Pennsylvania in 2017 and prices from years in the past in Brazil, the place he was accused of utilizing a fraudulent test to purchase attire.”

Republican Funhouse

“GOP chief McConnell returns to Senate after head damage” [Associated Press]. “McConnell returns to the Senate forward of a busy stretch wherein Congress must discover a strategy to increase the debt ceiling and negotiate further support for the Ukraine struggle, amongst different coverage issues. And he comes again as a number of different senators have been out for medical causes, elevating questions on how a lot the Senate will be capable of obtain within the coming months with a 51-49 break up between the events.” • “Medical causes,” eh? Completely not Covid, I might assume.

“The one factor Trump and McConnell agree on: A hatred for this group” [Politico]. The Membership for Development. “The Membership is positioning itself in opposition to the Nationwide Republican Senatorial Committee within the three states which might be most key to retaking the bulk: West Virginia, Montana and Ohio. Privately some high celebration operatives and McConnell-aligned strategists fear the Membership’s recruits, who’re usually conservative hardliners, might wrestle to win aggressive races. The concern is that, at finest, the group is creating unnecessarily messy primaries. At worst it’s blowing one other shot at retaking the bulk…. In 2020, Trump carried all three states. In 2024, they signify Republicans’ finest alternative to retake the Senate. All three of the Membership’s most well-liked candidates in these states are members of the conservative Home Freedom Caucus with profiles that may not endear them to swing voters in a common election. And there may be concern elsewhere within the celebration that these candidates or a divided main will solely increase the three veteran Democratic incumbents in these races…. [I]nside the NRSC, operatives are desperately making an attempt to lock in candidates with broad attraction. One instance: They’ve been making an attempt to recruit Justice, a coal-mining magnate-turned-West Virginia governor who’s more and more anticipated to launch a run in opposition to Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin.” • What an ideal alternative. Thanks guys.

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, it appears that evidently individuals are truly studying the back-dated publish! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are numerous updates. So I must do this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Occasion (“the Democrat Occasion is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated publish, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “dwell” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Occasion is, actually, a tough drawback. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Occasion is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Occasion didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working components of the Occasion reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Occasion (ka-ching, however not completely) these components comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with belongings within the press and the intelligence neighborhood.

Be aware, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

The celebration of struggle:

Very telling that if one goes to DC, the one place one can hear this message is from the right-wing populist wing of the GOP.

Each single Dem – from Bernie to AOC – voted to fund the struggle in Ukraine, what Lula calls “incentivizing” and “encouraging the struggle”: https://t.co/mxrdZ8eMNy

— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) April 17, 2023

#COVID19

“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. We are actually as much as 50/50 states (100%). That is actually nice! (It happens to me that there are makes use of to which this knowledge may be put, past serving to individuals with “private danger assessments” acceptable to their state. For instance, pondering pessimistically, we would keep the record and see which states go darkish and when. We’d additionally tabulate the properties of every web site and search for variations and commonalities, for instance using GIS (an train in Federalism). I don’t that CA stays a little bit sketchy; it feels a little bit odd that there’s no statewide web site, however I’ve by no means been capable of finding one. Additionally, my working assumption was that every state would have one web site. That’s turned out to not be true; see e.g. ID. Trivially, it means I have to punctuate this record correctly. Much less trivially, there could also be extra native websites that needs to be added. NY metropolis in NY state springs to thoughts, however I’m certain there are others. FL additionally springs to thoughts as a particular case, as a result of DeSantis will most likely be a Presidental candidate, and IIRC there was some foofra about their state dashboard. Thanks once more!

Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater stories); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (9), JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, otisyves, Petal (5), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).

Search for the Helpers

Maskers want a Inexperienced Guide:

You’ll be able to view a full record of healthcare settings in New York Metropolis and New York State which might be persevering with their masks mandates right here: https://t.co/S8y6gZhVQe#KeepMasksinHealthcare #KeepMasksinHealthcareNY pic.twitter.com/qicw1lp6d4

— Mandate Masks NY (@MandateMasksNY) April 5, 2023

Scenes from a wedding:

My partner was much less risk-averse, now we’re on par. We’re each disabled. I’m a scientist and have much more well being issues. I just about simply confirmed him the science. Repeatedly and as I adopted it. Translated the stats for him. Made it cheap to digest and it clicked for him.

— Disabled Physician (@DisabledDoctor) April 17, 2023

Not all these tales are unhappy!

Maskstravaganza

“Personal NY faculty continues requiring strict masking, social distancing, report says” [WLOS]. Let me pick the important thing nugget of truth: “‘Masking has been extraordinarily efficient in defending our college students and workers whereas they’re on campus,” [Elizabeth Ann Clune Montessori School of Ithaca (EACMSI),’ told The Free Press in a statement. ‘We have seen no on-campus transmission during our nearly three years of in-person school operations since we reopened in fall of 2020.’” So good, right? No kids with brain damage and bad hearts? Let the editorializing begin: “Despite an end to most COVID mandates for schools, teachers and students across the country, one private K-8 school in upstate New York is still reportedly its students to wear masks in class and outside on the playground.” • Forcing, ZOMG!!! You mean forcing like school uniforms? Attendance? It’s a private school, ffs! The whole article is full of this huffy, insulted incredulity.

Scientific Communication

“Covid is still a leading cause of death as the virus recedes” (no paywall) [WaPo]. Astonishing concession; I can’t think about why WaPo allowed it to be revealed, “However retreat just isn’t the identical factor as eradication: Federal well being officers say that covid-19 stays one of many main causes of demise in the USA, tied to about 250 deaths every day, on common, largely among the many outdated and immunocompromised. Few Individuals are treating it as a number one killer, nevertheless — partly as a result of they aren’t listening to about these numbers, don’t belief them or don’t see them as related to their very own lives. ‘We’re not presenting the information in a means that resonates with the American individuals,’ stated Deborah Birx, who served as the primary White Home coronavirus coordinator below President Donald Trump, citing analysis that finds elevated dangers of well being issues and demise within the months after a covid an infection.” Odd to see a Trump functionary talked about favorably Extra: ‘The choice to tolerate preventable deaths in disproportionately weak teams, in trade for the comfort of extra able-bodied, youthful, rich, and white people, is unethical and demonstrates a reckless disregard for the lives of communities disproportionately impacted by COVID,’ the Folks’s CDC, a coalition of public well being consultants, wrote in a report final week.” However then after all there’s Ashish Jha: ‘The virus ‘just isn’t disrupting our lives [who’s we?] in a considerable means,’ stated Ashish Jha, the White Home coronavirus coordinator, whose crew is ready to wind down subsequent month. ‘[But] is there nonetheless extra work to do to forestall severe sickness and demise? The reply to that’s sure.’” Wellie, that is determined by what “substantial” means. There are disputes concerning the accuracy of demise certificates below Federalism, however all of the proxy knowledge factors a method: “[Shira Doron, chief infection control officer for the Tufts Medicine Health System] famous that her colleagues reviewed about 85 latest deaths at Tufts that occurred after a covid analysis, and located ‘100% accuracy’ in these demise certificates that listed covid as a trigger. Furthermore, ‘there have been fairly a number of sufferers who our consultants felt had died of covid-19, and it didn’t make it onto the demise certificates,’ Doron added, saying that lots of these neglected sufferers had suffered ‘lengthy, gradual declines’ after covid an infection.” • How odd of Jha to say that demise isn’t “substantial.” The type of factor you’d count on a demise cult member to say….

Sequelae

“COVID-19 vaccination and venous thromboembolism danger in older veterans” [Journal of Clinical and Tranlational Science]. Retrospective cohort examine. N = 855,686. From the Summary: “It is vital for SARS-CoV-2 vaccine suppliers, vaccine recipients, and people not but vaccinated to be properly knowledgeable about vaccine unintended effects. We sought to estimate the chance of post-vaccination venous thromboembolism (VTE) to fulfill this want…. The outcomes present reassurance that there’s solely a trivial elevated danger of VTE with the present US SARS-CoV-2 vaccines utilized in veterans older than age 45. This danger is considerably lower than VTE danger amongst hospitalized COVID-19 sufferers. The danger-benefit ratio favors vaccination, given the VTE fee, mortality, and morbidity related to COVID-19 an infection.”

One other anecdote on neurological harm:

I labored at FB, so she has been on FB for 17 years now.

That is the primary time EVER that MULTIPLE associates have wished her comfortable birthday, then forgot that they did so, after which wished her comfortable birthday AGAIN.

— Yishan (@yishan) April 16, 2023

To be honest, stress can do this, too. However what might the stressor probably be?

One other anecdote on gastrointestinal misery from completely not Covid, ever:

“Company Horrified Over Giant Quantity of Vomiting Kids at Walt Disney World” based on DisneyDining.

Appears numerous mother and father are speaking there kids on excursions of the theme park and consuming in its eating places regardless of them being so sick with not-Covid that they’re puking. pic.twitter.com/D1Af7msFsP

— Hugh Wouldathunkit (@HughThunkIt) April 17, 2023

Science Is Popping

“Intranasal booster utilizing an Omicron vaccine confers broad mucosal and systemic immunity in opposition to SARS-CoV-2 variants” [Nature]. Mouse examine (sigh). From the Summary: “Intranasal vaccination utilizing Ad5-S-Omicron or instillation of intranasal vaccinee’s nasal lavage fluids in mouse nostrils protected mice in opposition to Omicron problem. Taken collectively, intranasal Ad5-S-Omicron booster on the idea of ancestral vaccines can set up efficient mucosal and systemic immunity in opposition to Omicron subvariants and a number of SARS-CoV-2 variants. This candidate vaccine warrants additional growth as a protected, efficient, and user-friendly an infection and transmission-blocking vaccine.” • Positive, however why we doing mouse research when Bharat iNCOVACC is already available on the market? Why aren’t we operating research to rule it out — or in?

Coverage

“COVID-19 lockdown revisionism” [Canadian Medical Association]. From the Summary: “The time period ‘lockdown’ has turn into a robust and perverted phrase within the infodemic about democracies’ responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. Lockdown, as utilized in public discourse, has expanded to incorporate any public well being measure, even when it locations little to no restriction on social mobility or interplay. For instance, a working literature evaluate and meta-analysis on the consequences of lockdowns on COVID-19 mortality misleadingly outlined lockdowns as ‘the imposition of at the least 1 obligatory non-pharmaceutical intervention.’ This working paper due to this fact conflated obligatory isolation for individuals with confirmed infections and masking insurance policies with heavy-handed limitations on freedom of motion, and because it gained viral fame, it has helped gas requires ‘no extra lockdowns.’ This working paper has been extremely critiqued and is much less convincing than comparative assessments of well being measures, just like the Oxford Stringency Index.” • Value a learn, particularly contemplating the supply,

Elite Malfeasance

“Common Masking in Well being Care Settings: A Pandemic Technique Whose Time Has Come and Gone, For NowFREE” [Annals of Internal Medicine]. Shameful, deadly dreck that ought to by no means have been revealed, not even below the rubric “Concepts and Opinions.” Be aware that creator Babock is a member of the CDC Healthcare An infection Management Practices Advisory Committee. From the textual content:

Enable me to translate: [1] “Don’t make us repeat ourselves, ever”; [2] “I need to see your smile.” Extra:

[1] No recognition of aerosol transmission; [2] no recognition of asymptomatic transmission; [3] abolish such testing as we nonetheless do. (And what universe do these individuals dwell in? America has by no means taken contact tracing severely.) To me, this paper exhibits that hospitals by no means took masking or aerosol transmission severely. They waited for Biden to declare that the pandemic is over, after which went again to enterprise — and I imply enterprise — as common.

“Hospital masks mandates will quickly be lifted, says Well being P.E.I.” [CBC]. “Masks have helped defend individuals from COVID-19 and different respiratory sicknesses, [Health P.E.I. CEO Dr. Michael Gardam] stated, however they’ve their drawbacks, too. ‘It’s arduous in your nostril[1]. It’s arduous in your ears[2]. It’s isolating[3]. Sufferers can’t hear you as properly[4]. It actually does intervene with among the work that we do[5]. And admittedly, our health-care employees, the overwhelming majority of them, are sick and bored with sporting masks[6].”” • As above. Impervious. [1] Attempt match assessments, you lazy, murderous buffoon. [2] That’s since you’re ignorant and use surgical masks with ear loops, as an alternative of KN95s with headbands. [3] Why? As a result of you possibly can’t see our smiles? [4] Converse up. Don’t mumble. Straighten up. Don’t be lazy, [5] Hand-waving. [6] You’re an administrator, not a union rep. You’re not entitled to talk for the employees. Watching a hospital — not all, see “Search for the Helpers” — turning itself right into a torment nexus… irritates me.

Don’t go to the hospital in case you really feel sick:

Starting Wednesday, masks shall be inspired however not required to be worn by sufferers and guests at our and all different @HamHealthSci and @stjoeshamilton hospitals. We nonetheless ask that you simply keep dwelling in case you’re feeling unwell. Particulars at https://t.co/P9WInFTTJS pic.twitter.com/SZsAXntCCC

— McMaster Kids’s Hospital (@mch_childrens) April 17, 2023

I wouldn’t dream of it!

Public well being mind geniuses manage one other superspreading occasion:

Wholesome NY Summit in NYC subsequent Thursday with NYC Well being Commissioner, NYS Senate Well being Committee Chair, & many extra leaders. However have a look at description of accessibility after which their COVID precautions. 👀 Inclusion is vital, however no masks or assessments required. https://t.co/44GHbscwRk pic.twitter.com/pOHoT7sgqd

— Myra #KeepMasksInHealthCare (@myrabatchelder) April 13, 2023

I had no concept that “inclusion” was meant to use to the SARS-CoV2 virus, however it appears to be so!

An growing variety of actually ticked off tweets (1):

when society was offered with the selection to danger making a world with out indoor eating or a world with out grandparents, our leaders selected the latter. And now everybody is predicted to behave like that alternative was mandatory and apparent.

— Olive Siffleur (@OliveSiffleur) April 18, 2023

An growing variety of actually ticked off tweets (2):

We aren’t on the finish of the pandemic. We aren’t in the beginning of the tip of the pandemic. We’re on the finish of the start of the pandemic, and all of our authorities are hoping we’ll go together with pretending it’s over.

— laurie allee (@laurieallee) April 16, 2023

Appears like “leveling off to a excessive plateau” throughout the board. (I nonetheless suppose “One thing Terrible” is coming, nevertheless. I imply, moreover what we already learn about.) Keep protected on the market!

Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “one thing terrible” may be a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau (with, after all, deeper information of the sequelae “we” have already determined to just accept or, relatively, to revenue from). That would be the operational definition of “dwelling with Covid.” Extra as I believe on this. As well as, I recurated my Twitter feed for my new account, and it could be I’m making a echo chamber. That stated, it appears to me that the knobs on Covid had gone as much as 13, partly as a result of science is popping, which calls for extra gaslighting, and partly as a result of that “Covid is over” bubble upkeep is, I imagine, extra pundit-intensive than our betters believed it might be.

Case Information

NOT UPDATED BioBot wastewater knowledge from April 13:

For now, I’m going to make use of this nationwide wastewater knowledge as the very best proxy for case knowledge (ignoring the scientific case knowledge portion of this chart, which in my opinion “goes dangerous” after March 2022, for causes as but unexplained). A minimum of we will spot tendencies, and evaluate present ranges to equal previous ranges.

Covid Emergency Room Visits

NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, from April 8:

NOTE “Charts and knowledge offered by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous yr, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not all the pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “similar to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is acceptable for each_{MR SUBLIMINAL I hate these individuals a lot}. Anyhow, I added a gray “Fauci line” simply to point out that Covid wasn’t “over” after they began saying it was, and it’s not over now. Discover additionally that this chart exhibits, at the least for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, despite the fact that CDC is making an attempt to get us to imagine that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the present institutional equipment for injections.

Positivity

I’m afraid the Walgreen’s positivity tracker has shut down, because it hasn’t up to date since April 11, and all with none announcement. It’s as if we’re heading right into a storm, and the very first thing the captain did was order the sextant, compass, log line, sandglass, and ship’s clock thrown overboard. Then they indifferent the wheel from the rudder. “We have now the instruments.” No, we don’t. We have now additionally determined to not know what the job is, even.

Deaths

NOT UPDATED Dying fee (Our World in Information):

Complete: 1,158,255 – 1,158,017 = 238 (238 * 365 = 202,575 deaths per yr, right now’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “dwelling with” Covid (fairly a bit larger than the minimizers would love, although they’ll discuss themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I may must determine that is what the powers-that-be take into account “mission achieved” for this specific tranche of demise and illness).

Lambert right here: WHO turned off the feed? Odd that Walgreen’s positivity shut down on April 11, and the WHO demise depend on April 12. Was there a memo I didn’t get?

Extra Deaths

NOT UPDATED Extra deaths (The Economist), revealed April 2:

Lambert right here: Huge leap from the final studying within the “Central Estimate.”

Lambert right here: Primarily based on a machine-learning mannequin. I”m undecided how typically this updates, and if it doesn’t, I’ll take away it. (The CDC has an extra estimate too, however because it ran eternally with a large typo within the Legend, I figured no one was actually it, so I acquired rid it. )

Stats Watch

Housing: “United States Housing Begins” [Trading Economics]. “Housing begins within the US went down 0.8% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annualized fee of 1.42 million in March of 2023, following a downwardly revised 7.3% surge in February, however barely beating market forecasts of 1.4 million.”

Tech: “Musk mocks Twitter’s previous possession, says platform was run like a ‘glorified activist group’” [New York Post]. “In an interview with Fox Information host Tucker Carlson, Musk joked that operating Twitter after letting go of 80% of its workers within the days after his October 2022 takeover wasn’t such a tall activity as a result of he wasn’t involved about censoring customers. ‘Seems, you don’t want all that many individuals to run Twitter,’ the billionaire enterprise tycoon instructed Carlson after confirming that 80% of the corporate’s staff had been fired or left voluntarily after his $44 billion buy of the social media platform. An incredulous Carlson famous that 80% ‘is rather a lot’ of individuals to have go away, to which Musk responded: ‘I imply, in case you’re not making an attempt to run some type of glorified activist group, and also you don’t care that a lot about censorship, then you possibly can actually let go of lots of people it seems.’ ‘I believe we simply had a scenario at Twitter the place it was absurdly overstaffed,’ Musk argued, evaluating Twitter to a ‘group textual content service at scale.’ ‘Like how many individuals are actually wanted for that?’ he added.” • After which…. The Tech Overlords all copied Musk, who took one for the crew, and began firing individuals. However to be honest to Musk, Twitter couldn’t ship an edit button for years.

Tech: “Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai says that A.I. might be ‘extra profound’ than each fireplace and electrical energy—however he’s been saying the identical factor for years” [Fortune]. • Nicely, to not dunk on this absurd assertion, however one thing fully depending on electrical energy can’t be “extra profound.” AI is simply one other equipment, and never an excellent one.

Transportation: “Southwest Airways briefly pauses departures after reporting technical issues” [CNBC]. “Southwest Airways briefly paused its departures on Tuesday after reporting technical issues, delaying flights across the nation. The Federal Aviation Administration stated the bottom cease had been lifted, however many flights had been nonetheless delayed. As of shortly after 11 a.m. ET, greater than 1,500 flights, or 36% of Southwest’s schedule, had been delayed, based on flight-tracking web site FlightAware. ‘Early this morning, a vendor-supplied firewall went down and connection to some operational knowledge was unexpectedly misplaced,’ Southwest stated in a press release. ‘Southwest Groups labored rapidly to attenuate flight disruptions.’” • Not rapidly sufficient, apparently,

Immediately’s Worry & Greed Index: 68 Greed (earlier shut: 69 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 59 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Apr 18 at 1:57 PM ET

Rapture Index: Closes down two on #42 Plagues (“The coronavirus pandemic has been declared over” and #44 Meals Provide “The shortage of exercise has downgraded this class” [Rapture Ready]. Document Excessive, October 10, 2016: 189. Present: 184. (Keep in mind that bringing on the Rapture is good.) NOTE on #42 Plagues: “The coronavirus pandemic has maxed out this class.” Extra sincere than most!

Lambert right here: I’m shocked to search out myself in a extra apocalyptic mind set than the Rapture Index, however right here we’re. On Plagues, I believe “has been declared” (notice lack of company) is doing relatively plenty of work; cf. Ezekiel 22:27.

The Gallerywww

Catch Mnet portray a cute canine:

Zeitgeist Watch

“‘Hogwarts Legacy’ Offered 256% Extra Than Estimates At Launch” [Forbes]. • Oh.

Our Famously Free Press

The Beltway press are spooks. Don’t discuss to them:

Or learn them.

Class Warfare

“Placing Medieval Instances employees struck by automobile on picket line” [Los Angeles Times]. “For greater than two months, newly unionized employees on the Medieval Instances in Buena Park have been on strike, picketing on the well-liked themed dinner theater. Final week, clients, apparently pissed off with protesting employees blocking the car parking zone entrance, lashed out. On Thursday, a number of picketers had been struck by a patron in a transferring car or had been shoved by a second patron who acquired out of the passenger seat of the automobile, based on employee interviews and video footage of the altercation posted to social media. Movies present a automobile making an attempt to entry the Medieval Instances car parking zone unsuccessfully, a person within the passenger seat exiting the car and swinging at picketers, and the motive force, nonetheless behind the wheel, driving the car by way of the road of protesters.” • So, violence in opposition to employees over attending a dinner theatre? Actually? (Assuming the “patrons” weren’t employed goons, after all. Odd that the Instances by no means sought to interview them.)

“Accounting for flood danger would decrease American home costs by $187bn” [Economist]. “Congress arrange the Nationwide Flood Insurance coverage Programme (NFIP). Owners in ‘100-year floodplains’, the place regulators reckon the possibility of flooding annually is at the least 1%, can get government-backed mortgages provided that they’re insured. However on common, the sum of money that the NFIP collects in premiums annually is lower than the quantity it has to pay out, so it has to borrow, thus passing the invoice on to the federal government: in 2017 Congress forgave $16bn of the NFIP’s debt. Furthermore, the NFIP’s payouts are lower than the full quantity of injury attributable to floods. The shortfall is paid by uninsured owners, and by these whose damages exceed the NFIP’s most declare measurement. In 21 of the 50 states, sellers of properties do not need to reveal previous damages or future dangers from floods, leaving consumers with no thought of the menace they face. Furthermore, even when consumers are knowledgeable, they typically fail to low cost their provides sufficiently. The mixture of subsidised insurance coverage and myopic purchaser behaviour signifies that homes in flood-prone areas are overpriced. One examine in 2021 estimated this overvaluation at $33bn-56bn. However a brand new paper in Nature Local weather Change, whose lead creator is Jesse Gourevitch of the Environmental Defence Fund, an advocacy group, places it at $121bn-237bn, with a central estimate of $187bn.” • Commentary:

Information of the Wired

“In an eerie tech second, SF’s Misalignment Museum is a warning from the long run” [SFGate]. “In San Francisco, seemingly in a single day [due to an enormous propaganda campaign stimulated by stupid money], synthetic intelligence grew to become the monomaniacal focus of tech giants and fodder for yet one more enterprise capital binge. The remainder of us have been left to atone for what we’ve been instructed is the long run. … Audrey Kim, the museum’s founder and curator, is taking us on a tour of the gallery. As we cease in entrance of a metaphorical show that includes the long-lasting canned meat, Kim explains the piece, which is known as ‘Spambots.’ A number of tins of pork prod, with tiny robotic arms, at a set of keys. They’re linked as much as a monitor, and each keystroke contributes to an ever-growing AI-generated novel about porcine caste programs. The piece’s creation predates ChatGPT’s viral launch final November however is constructed on the identical know-how. … The museum thrives on these layers, depicting well timed AI know-how as unusual, threatening or stunning — generally all of sudden. Kim has been planning the museum since September 2022, however the area solely opened within the Mission earlier this month. It’s a high-minded imaginative and prescient; Kim’s museum imagines a bewildering future wherein a man-made intelligence is apologizing to what stays of humankind after an apocalypse the know-how induced.” • I believe the type of world’s Philip Ok. Dick creates have the fitting tone for AI: pervasive grey-colored mediocrity.

Contact info for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a test if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photos of crops. Greens are nice! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you need your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it at the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From AM:

AM writes: “Daffodils on Ladd Braes public footpath in St Andrews, Scotland in March, 2023.”

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