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UPDATE:
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kos
Replace on Russia’s Pavlograd assault I point out beneath, which Russia reported was both 1) a railroad station, or 2) a stash of Ukrainian air defenses missiles. It’s now confirmed it was the third choice I discussed—a chemical plant storing expired jet gas as soon as utilized in nuclear intercontinental ballistic missiles.
That is each terrifying—1,800 tons of gas are saved within the facility, a actually explosive quantity—but in addition a aid, as Russia as soon as once more makes use of its arsenal to focus on non-military infrastructure. They received their massive increase, possibly in retaliation of the large one in Sevastopol a few days in the past. However not like that one, this one received’t have an effect on Ukraine’s struggle effort.
In the meantime, a fast comply with as much as the Russian cruise missile assault final night time, during which Russia launched 18 Kh-101 missiles, and had 15 shot down. Every a kind of prices $13 million. So Russia pissed $195M down the drain.
Per week in the past I wrote about potential Ukrainian counterattack choices as we look ahead to the mud to dry. I wrote about apparent targets in Starolisk in Ukraine’s northeast, and reducing Putin’s treasured “land bridge” connecting the Russian mainland with the Crimean peninsula within the south, with potential advances towards Melitopol or Mariupol.
However I concluded with a pipe-dream thought: benefiting from probably skinny Russian defenses round Donetsk metropolis smack in the course of the Donbas, on the coronary heart of territory occupied by Russia since 2014.
Together with a strike on the equally thinly defended Starobilsk method, this fantasy assault would seem like this, engulfing the majority of Russian forces in a single sweeping pincer maneuver.
Whereas I nonetheless don’t anticipate something of this kind, the notion received added help from @Tatarigami_UA, a Ukrainian officer who lately served round Vuhledar. In a thread analyzing Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin’s newest proclamations (which I wrote about in yesterday’s replace), he dropped the next hypothesis:
Whereas it is unclear if our command will resolve to counter-attack within the [Bakhmut] space, it is fairly potential that what russia was in a position to obtain in the middle of 9 months might be reversed inside every week and lead to a breakthrough and encirclement of Horlivka and the rears of Donetsk.
Whereas that is mere hypothesis on my half, contemplating the poor state of their troops in Bakhmut, launching a counter-offensive on this course might trigger a severe blow to russian morale. This is only one of many potential instructions for such an assault.
Whoa, whoa, whoa.
Somebody requested him the identical query many requested me after I wrote about focusing the counterattack round Donetsk metropolis: “Attention-grabbing observations. Nevertheless, I do have a query: Why do you imagine Ukraine can counter assault in Horlivka? Is not the pre-2022 Donbas border supposedly closely fortified? If they’ll go previous mentioned fortifications, why not go for Donetsk metropolis as a substitute?”
His reply: “Not Horlivka itself, however reducing off essential provide routes that result in Donetsk by way of Horlivka space, therefore most of their troops round Donetsk. It is all the time higher to power your enemy to retreat or give up than to carry out giant assaults on cities like Donetsk”
Let me present you what he’s speaking about. It’s not fairly what I had proposed, however shut, and higher:
Tatarigami_UA argues that “Wagner troops lack each coaching and expertise in making ready complicated and arranged defenses. Organizing defenses, establishing firing positions, and managing logistics in a well-structured method is tough, and Wagner is just not designed or outfitted for it.” The idea is {that a} well-coordinated counterattack straight at Wagner would collapse that entrance, permitting Ukraine to hurry its troops right into a breach straight into Russia’s undefended rear.
All indications are that the majority of Russia’s forces are defending the land bridge, which might permit Ukraine to romp all that solution to Amvrosiivka, reducing off Donetsk metropolis’s essential logistical lifeline: the T0507 freeway and the one rail line from Russia feeding town of 1 million.
Russia would then be in a bind. With out realizing simply now a lot of Ukraine’s reserves had been dedicated, it could be loath to maneuver forces from the land bridge space or up north, lest they open up a second avenue for Ukraine. And fairly frankly, the mobilized mobiks sitting in defensive trenches could be fairly ineffective making an attempt to dislodge any competent, well-equipped Ukrainian advance. If these might assault, they’d’ve finished it this winter as a substitute of sitting nonetheless as Wagner did a lot of the shifting and dying. The few Russian military models that engaged—VDV airborne troops round Kreminna within the northeast and naval infantry (Marines) round Vuhledar—received their asses kicked. They’re not efficient preventing forces.
The advantages of liberating Donetsk metropolis could be incalculable. As I beforehand wrote, “Along with the incalculable propaganda worth of liberating a metropolis of 1 million below Russian management since 2014, it could successfully cut up the Russian military into northern and southern halves. It will deprive Russia of a key supply of cannon fodder. A key logistics distribution middle, it could minimize the one rail line from Russia to Mariupol and the remainder of the occupied land bridge (no less than till the Kerch Bridge rail line is operational once more, which nonetheless isn’t the case).”
And bear in mind, there aren’t any defensive strains again there. If Ukraine is romping within the backfield, it could possibly transfer in any course it needs (as long as it could possibly set up and defend its provide strains). That pincer maneuver towards the north would nonetheless be in playing cards. And for those who’re questioning, “couldn’t Ukraine be outflanked by Russian forces attacking from Russia,” simply keep in mind that NATO estimates that over 97% of Russia’s forces are already inside Ukraine. There’s nothing else to ship.
To be very clear, this officer is simply speculating. He doesn’t have inside information. If Russian intelligence is monitoring his account and taking it critically, possibly it means they pull defenders from different energetic fronts, making Ukraine’s job simpler assuming they strike in one of many extra apparent instructions. However I don’t imagine his hypothesis is meant in that vogue.
In context, he’s saying Wagner is working out of steam, they usually solely know one factor: how one can push ahead. If compelled to go on the defensive, he argues they’d fold, opening up a spot for a possible Ukrainian spearhead to use.
There may be already a ton of arguing over what “success” appears like for Ukraine’s upcoming counteroffensive. You understand what could be inarguable? Liberating the capital metropolis of Donetsk.
Final night time, Russia aimed a brand new spherical of missiles and rockets at Ukraine.
What was anticipated to be an enormous barrage appeared to fizzle. As I write this, Ukraine reported 18 Kh-101/555 cruise missiles had been launched, and 15 of them had been shot down. By all indications a large number of them had been directed towards Kyiv. Given the extraordinarily excessive intercept charge, there’s a great likelihood that Ukraine’s shiny new Patriot batteries received their battle christening.
At one level, OSINT sources monitoring radio chatter counted 20 TU-95/TU-160s strategic bombers within the air. I don’t know if it was subterfuge (Russia has launched “phantom” missiles earlier than to attempt to idiot and overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses) or if the OSINT trackers tousled, however Ukraine claims that simply 11 plane launched missiles. Provided that solely 18 cruise missiles had been launched, that signifies that every plane, on common, carried fewer than two missiles. For context, every plane might carry eight cruise missiles.
Sadly, earlier Sunday, Russia did rating a direct hit on a navy goal in Pavlohrad, hitting the rail station in a bid to hamper Ukrainian logistics forward of its counteroffensive, and apparently hitting a munitions dump. (Russia claims air protection missiles.)
Different sources recommended Russia focused, weirdly sufficient, jet gas as soon as used to gas Soviet intercontinental ballistic missiles, now saved at a chemical plant. (Right here’s a 2013 article about this system.)
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