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For all of the sturm und drang of at present’s preventing, adjustments on the bottom have been scant. Ukraine formally picked up a small city right here, Russia did the identical over there. Whereas a lot of the entrance line was on hearth (Ukraine claimed 14 separate assaults), the scenario on the bottom remained primarily unchanged. @War_Mapper’s updates on Twitter are all the time nice, if you wish to see today’s changes.
I wrote earlier that pro-Russian Telegram sources claimed Ukraine was assaulting Izyum from throughout the Donets River (backside arrow in picture beneath), however a number of sources declare the assault is definitely coming down from Chuhuiv (high arrow).
If Chuhuiv is the the supply of the counter-offensive, it might seemingly journey that most important freeway southeast towards Izyium, somewhat than east towards Kupiansk. Russia has moved a substantial amount of fight energy to Shevchenkove, between Chuhuiv and Kupiansk, to guard its essential provide depot from any Ukrainian advance. Getting by these two cities could be costly to Ukraine in navy sources and lives. And there’s no want, as we’ve can now so clearly see with Ukraine’s push towards Izyum itself.
Briefly, if Ukraine collapses that Izyum pocket, there may be not a necessity for Russia to keep up operations in both Kupiansk or Vovchansk—the 2 logistical hubs feeding the struggle machine within the Izyum salient. After every week of debating “Kupiansk vs Vovchansk,” it seems that the very best reply is “C: Take away the purpose for each.”
To make sure, I doublechecked NASA Corporations satellite tv for pc imagery, and there’s actually no fires close to Shevechenkove. If Ukraine was headed in that route, it might hearth in town to clear Russian positions, whereas Russia would hearth again to sluggish or cease the advance. As an alternative, as I demonstrated earlier with FIRMS satellite tv for pc imagery, all of the motion is creating instantly west of Izyum:
Possibly there’s a two-prong assault on Izyum creating, from each the west and northwest. Or perhaps individuals don’t know what’s occurring. Or perhaps there’s even some disinformation designed to repair Russian positions on a northwest strategy that may by no means materialize. That’s why FIRMS imagery could be so useful. There are such a lot of sources of knowledge claiming stuff, and never all of them are really incentivized to all the time inform the reality.
On one other matter, it’s good seeing our protection tax {dollars} doing one thing productive.
The declare by Ukrainian servicemen’s is that American-donated M777 howitzers destroyed the 80+ automobiles at Russia’s unimaginably disastrous Bilohorivka river crossing try. I’m wanting ahead to a translation (this guy will do it quickly), nevertheless it positively seems like an “America, FUCK YEAH” second we liberals can rally behind.
This complete debacle has been enjoyable to trace on pro-Russia social media. The Institute for the Examine of Struggle claims, in tonight’s replace, that they’ve seen pro-Russia telegram shaken by the carnage:
Outstanding pro-Russian Telegram channels (with roughly 300 thousand followers) largely criticized Russian Basic Workers for failing to study from earlier fight errors and expressed concern that censorship and self-censorship was depriving them of situational consciousness. Different pro-Russian Telegram channels famous the sluggish tempo of Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast, blaming it partially on ineffective aerial reconnaissance and the unfavorable results of dangerous morale throughout the Russian navy. Some Telegram channels reported receiving criticism for “misrepresenting” the efficiency of the Russian navy.
I have to frequent a unique nook of Telegram and pro-Russia Twitter, as a result of what I’ve seen is completely totally different—the invention of a fantastical alternate actuality the place a lot of the destroyed automobiles are Ukrainian.
The speculation is as such: a lot of the destroyed automobiles are BMP-1 infantry preventing automobiles, and supposedly Russia not fields these historic automobiles. On-the-ground images exhibits Russian uniforms in those BMP-1s, however hey, these may very well be faked, proper? That’s what the propagandists say. Open Supply Intelligence (OSINT) analyst Henry Schlottman, the authority on the composition of Russian military items, actually claims Russia fields them.
Oryx has tracked 43 BMP-1s misplaced by Russia, like this, this, this, and this, all with outstanding Russian invasion markings. Oh, and right here’s one nonetheless in Russia’s palms, not less than a number of weeks in the past:
Moreover, Russia has been pressured to dig into its operational reserves to backfill fight losses whereas reconstituting shredded items. There aren’t a number of fashionable infantry automobiles in these reserves. That is the crap they’re pulling out.
After all, there’s much more than simply BMP-1s on the Bilohorivka catastrophe web site! There are 14 T-72s, that are normal Russian challenge (although Ukraine has captured a bunch), in addition to BMP-2s, and engineering and assist gear that solely Russia fields. So how do they clarify that?
Effectively, they are saying there was a giant battle on the spot. Certain, Russia not holds the bridgeheads however their losses have been only a fraction of the general whole destroyed automobiles. You see, Russia destroyed all these Ukrainians in BMP-1s earlier than tactically retreating again throughout the bridge, which then Ukraine destroyed after the very fact … er … 3 times.
Then Russia launched video saying “nuh uh, we destroyed Ukrainian bridge!”
Besides … all I see is Russian capturing at a river, then dropping artillery on a river, with no automobiles wherever round. Who is aware of, perhaps they did compromise a working bridgehead. However it might nonetheless imply the tally is as follows:
Destroyed Russian pontoon bridge: 82+ automobiles
Destroyed Ukrainian pontoon bridge: 0 automobiles
However actually, that form of propaganda isn’t designed to persuade individuals, it’s designed to present their partisans crap to spew. Nothing else. There’s a time period for that form of fantasy-making on this struggle, and it’ll jump over to our personal political discourse earlier than lengthy: copium. Folks will invent what they want to deal with the information they don’t need to see.
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