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The social gathering’s remaining increase then got here courtesy of the reemergence of irregular migration as a political difficulty, in addition to Europe’s vitality and inflationary crises begat by the Russia-Ukraine Battle. In 2022, 112,272 asylum functions have been lodged in Austria — that’s greater than on the top of the migration disaster in 2015. 12 months-on-year inflation peaked at 11.2 % in January 2023 and stays above the eurozone common. And pure fuel costs elevated by 103 % within the first half of 2023 in contrast with the identical interval the 12 months prior.
For these against the FPÖ, the principle fear is that the financial and political situations present little signal of enchancment. The economic system stays sluggish. GDP fell by 0.5 % in 2023 and is barely projected to develop by 1 % this 12 months. In the meantime, the federal government’s efforts to mitigate inflation with one-time money funds and a cap family vitality costs haven’t damaged via with voters.
Thus, Nehammer’s conservative Austrian Folks’s Occasion (ÖVP) now finds itself in a double bind. It’s weighed down by the legacy of ex-Chancellor Sebastian Kurz’s tenure as social gathering chief: A collection of corruption allegations which can be presently beneath investigation. However on the similar time, with out Kurz, the social gathering has misplaced the very factor that gave it two successive election victories. Its makes an attempt to imitate the FPÖ, notably on immigration, are not working on the poll field.
On the different finish of the political spectrum, although the SPÖ’s fortunes seem to have stabilized beneath new chief Andreas Babler, the social gathering’s ballot numbers aren’t any higher now than they have been earlier than the navel-gazing technique of holding a management contest — one which led to embarrassment when the improper winner was introduced attributable to a miscount.
Furthermore, Babler’s dream coalition — a left-liberal alignment involving the Austrian Greens and the liberal NEOS social gathering — is a fantasy. Plus, the left bloc could also be about to turn into even additional divided because of the joke Beer Occasion. At a Jan. 18 press convention, its chief Dominik Wlazny — higher recognized by the stage identify Marco Pogo — introduced his social gathering’s intention to run ought to the social gathering entice sufficient new members and monetary assist. The SPÖ and Greens have already got one challenger within the guise of the Communist Occasion — they definitely don’t want one other.
In brief, the federal government is unpopular, and the opposition is operating out of time to search out its ft. The economic system is weak, and the nation’s rapid prospects are bleak. Austria is thus inching its method towards a far-right victory within the upcoming parliamentary elections. And if the ÖVP agrees to enter coalition with FPÖ — because it did in 2000 and 2017 — then the social gathering will return to energy as soon as extra.
In Austria’s earlier two elections, it was a single occasion that radically altered the dynamics of every race. In 2017, it was Kurz’s coup that noticed him take over the ÖVP and blow up its coalition with the SPÖ. In 2019, it was the Ibiza affair, as then-FPÖ chief and Vice Chancellor Heinz-Christian Strache was caught on tape providing authorities contracts to a lady he believed to be a Russian oligarch’s relative.
If it’s to keep away from a tragic election outcome, Austria now desperately wants one other deus ex machina.
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