Bettors again San Francisco 49ers to win Tremendous Bowl LVII

The San Francisco 49ers have an extended highway forward of them in the event that they need to win their first Tremendous Bowl since 1995. Not essentially as a result of they’re going to face a variety of sturdy competitors — the NFC is relatively weak this yr — however as a result of they must win 4 straight video games with 2022’s Mr. Irrelevant below heart. Main as much as the playoffs, that hasn’t hindered the 49ers although. They’ve gained 10 straight video games, 5 of which have include Purdy because the workforce’s signal-caller. He has but to report a single recreation with fewer than two passing touchdowns, and has a passer ranking of 119 since taking up for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo. It’s been an awesome story, and bettors appear inclined to suppose it’s one thing extra.

What are the chances?

In response to OddsChecker US, since Week 18 of the common season got here to a detailed, the 49ers have seen a staggering 17.7 p.c of bets positioned on them to win the Tremendous Bowl. What’s even crazier is that, most often, a majority of these numbers point out nice odds for an underappreciated squad, however the 49ers don’t have that downside. They’ve the third-best odds to win all of it (+500), behind solely the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (+350) and Buffalo Payments (+400). In truth, the workforce with the second-most bets to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, the Cincinnati Bengals, has worse odds to win all of it (+850). Usually, I’d suppose bettors would flock to the workforce that wouldn’t solely pay out extra for successful all of it, however was additionally one win away from doing so simply final yr.

Might a weak NFC be main bettors to the 49ers?

Is the NFC actually that dangerous that bettors are keen to earn much less cash for the arrogance that comes with supporting the most well liked workforce within the NFC? It appears so, they usually do have motive to be assured in SF’s possibilities. For the yr, the 49ers have allowed opponents to attain solely 16.3 factors per recreation, whereas scoring 33.5 factors per recreation with Purdy at quarterback. Over a full 17-game season, this equates to 277 factors allowed and 570 factors for. There is just one workforce within the Tremendous Bowl Period to permit fewer complete factors whereas scoring extra: The 2007 New England Patriots, who went 16-0 through the common season.

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Nice numbers don’t all the time get you a Tremendous Bowl victory

Nevertheless, as I’m positive all of you realize, that workforce didn’t win the Tremendous Bowl. That mentioned, of the seven groups to have scored 500 or extra factors in a season whereas permitting fewer than 300, 5 went on to symbolize their convention within the Tremendous Bowl (the 1998 Vikings and 2019 Ravens didn’t). Solely two really gained all of it — the 1999 Rams and 1994 49ers. By that logic, the chances of the 49ers reaching the Tremendous Bowl must be fairly excessive, so why is there nonetheless a way of unease in regard to them successful all of it?

Guess on Brock?

Purdy is the apparent reply. Regardless of enjoying phenomenally effectively, he’s nonetheless a seventh-round rookie. One other issue often is the 49ers’ lack of adverse opponents since Purdy got here into the fold. Though Purdy did face two playoff groups, he solely confronted one with a successful report — the Seattle Seahawks. I’ll admit, whilst a 49ers fan, this scares me a bit as effectively. With such an inexperienced man below heart, it’s exhausting to come back again if the 49ers fall behind early. Since Purdy took over the beginning gig, the 49ers have had just one recreation the place the workforce was pressured to throw the ball extra usually than they ran it — Week 17 towards the Las Vegas Raiders. That was a recreation the 49ers ought to’ve dominated. I imply, for goodness sake, the Raiders didn’t even play Derek Carr in that recreation, but when push got here to shove, Purdy had a tough time pulling out the win. Who is aware of? If Tashaun Gipson didn’t make that game-sealing interception in additional time, possibly the 49ers wouldn’t have ended the season on a ten-game win streak.

Can the 49ers play from behind?

Sure, Purdy ultimately did pull the ten-point comeback, however he ought to’ve by no means been in that place. What occurs when the 49ers fall behind towards an offense like Philadelphia’s or Buffalo’s that doesn’t succumb to strain and may constantly rating even towards the very best defenses within the NFL? That’s the place I’m nervous.

Better of the bunch?

Given the issues each different workforce within the NFC has, I wouldn’t be shocked if the 49ers represented their convention within the Tremendous Bowl, however ought to they go up towards the Chiefs, Payments, or Bengals, I’d have a tough time believing they’d win. They’ve already misplaced by 21 to the Chiefs this season, and whereas the 49ers did make the change at quarterback just a few weeks later, and maybe hadn’t come into kind at that time but, 21 factors remains to be so much. Sure, Tom Brady and the Bucs beat the New Orleans Saints within the 2020 playoffs after shedding 38-3 within the common season, however Purdy isn’t Brady, regardless of their low draft statuses.

The expertise is there — however can they put all of it collectively?

The 49ers have the expertise to win all of it. That’s plain. Nevertheless, the quarterback place is and has lengthy been an important place in soccer, and quarterbacks making their first profession postseason begin are likely to wrestle.

How rookie QBs have fared in recent times

For the reason that NFL modified its playoff format in 2002, groups with quarterbacks making their first-ever postseason begins have gone 24-46, together with an abysmal 1-4 efficiency final season (Carr, Hurts, Jones, Murray, Burrow). To be honest, the one QB that gained, Joe Burrow, reached the Tremendous Bowl, and was one Ja’Marr Chase streak away from successful that recreation. I anticipate the 49ers to beat the Seahawks, as they’ve carried out twice this yr already. So with that mentioned, possibly the 49ers have an exceptional probability in spite of everything.