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ASTANA, Kazakhstan — Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken got here to Central Asia to press his case that the area ought to maintain the road in opposition to Russian efforts to hunt financial assist as Moscow grapples with Western sanctions.
Inside hours of touchdown in Astana, the snow-draped capital of Kazakhstan, he acquired an indication that the US had some leverage. The Kazakh president stood subsequent to Mr. Blinken within the blue-domed presidential palace and thanked the Individuals for his or her assist of his nation’s “independence, territorial integrity and sovereignty.”
The president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, has not criticized Russia’s struggle, and neither have leaders of the 4 different Central Asian nations, former Soviet republics with decades-long ties with Moscow. However his pointed assertion instructed that, after the invasion of Ukraine, additionally a former Soviet republic, there was concern that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia might attempt to seize elements of their very own nations or encourage separatists.
Elements of northern Kazakhstan are inhabited largely by ethnic Russians and are considered by Russian nationalists as territory that ought to belong to Russia. So there’s concern that these Kazakh residents might fall sufferer to Mr. Putin’s logic that Moscow has an obligation to “shield” ethnic kin wherever they’re.
Mr. Blinken shortly gave assurances, saying at a information convention later that the US was a dedicated associate of the Central Asian nations and that “our assist for his or her independence and sovereignty, their territorial integrity, is actual.” His remarks got here after a gaggle assembly with the international ministers of the 5 Central Asian nations.
Mr. Blinken’s go to to Kazakhstan was the primary by a Biden administration cupboard official to any Central Asian nation. It happens at an essential second in American efforts to rally nations to buttress Ukraine in preparation for its protection in opposition to a broader Russian offensive anticipated this spring and for Kyiv’s personal potential army push.
On the battlefield in jap Ukraine, nevertheless, the symbolism of Mr. Blinken’s push to assist Ukraine was overshadowed by what the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, described because the “increasingly tough” state of affairs for his troops combating to carry Bakhmut, an obliterated metropolis that holds symbolic significance for Russia because it struggles to point out some headway after army setbacks.
Mr. Blinken’s conferences in Kazakhstan and a go to to Uzbekistan, which observe latest journeys to the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, by President Biden and Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen, are a crucial a part of the American diplomatic efforts this winter. Gen. Mark A. Milley, the nation’s most senior army adviser, on Tuesday addressed a Rome convention of army chiefs from Africa, the place Russia has some allies. Normal Milley will later head to Germany, the place he’ll meet with Ukrainian troops, Pentagon officers mentioned.
The go to to Central Asia is a strike in opposition to Moscow within the coronary heart of what it considers its sphere of affect.
U.S. officers say they’re sensible about their diplomacy in Central Asia: The 5 nations — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan — keep shut diplomatic, safety and financial ties to Russia in addition to to China, the opposite superpower rival to the US and Russia’s strongest strategic associate.
However the Individuals hope a minimum of to encourage the international locations to withstand strain from Russia to present it extra assist at a time when it’s struggling on the battlefield and Western allies consider highly effective weapon shipments might assist Ukraine make severe features this spring.
One sticking level: International locations in Central Asia say the US must enormously improve commerce ties and financial assist if it hopes to counterbalance Russia and China.
Mr. Blinken additionally acknowledged on the information convention with the Kazakh international minister, Mukhtar Tileuberdi, that sanctions on Russia, Kazakhstan’s largest buying and selling associate, had had an “financial spillover impact.” He mentioned the U.S. authorities was issuing “licenses that make sense” for international corporations to proceed conducting reliable commerce with Russia whereas “watching compliance with sanctions very intently.”
Penalties from the sanctions on Russia have rippled throughout Kazakhstan. When the US, Europe and a few Asian nations first imposed them in February 2022, the Kazakh tenge, the native forex, fell 20 %. It has step by step climbed again to simply beneath its prewar worth.
After assembly the 5 international ministers, Mr. Blinken introduced a further $20 million in U.S. funding for financial applications within the area, on high of $25 million from final 12 months. He mentioned the US would additionally give $5 million this 12 months to advertise “regional connectivity” by way of financial and power applications.
That may be a small sum in contrast with the quantity of commerce between the nations and Russia and China.
American officers insist that they aren’t attempting to drive the nations to decide on allegiances however hope to take advantage of a weakening of Russian affect within the area that has been fueled partially by the struggle in Ukraine. With Russia pouring army assets into Ukraine and coping with sanctions, it has centered much less on Central Asia. Officers within the area say they see an unraveling of a few of Moscow’s energy, each to the profit and to the occasional detriment of their governments.
Emil Joroev, a researcher at Crossroads Central Asia, a analysis group in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, mentioned Mr. Putin had labored onerous in latest months to shore up Moscow’s affect in Central Asia, visiting every of the 5 nations a minimum of as soon as.
However this, Mr. Joroev added, “gave a way of Putin being considerably determined” to point out he nonetheless had pals, or a minimum of not enemies, when many international locations, notably in Europe, view him as a struggle legal.
“Putin has misplaced his magic,” Mr. Joroev mentioned, “however he nonetheless has a lot higher leverage in these international locations than the U.S. does.”
Even Central Asian leaders who’ve benefited from Mr. Putin’s insurance policies voice skepticism over the struggle. Final summer time, Mr. Tokayev pushed again in opposition to Mr. Putin whereas sharing a stage with him at an financial convention in St. Petersburg, declaring that Kazakhstan wouldn’t acknowledge the “quasi-state territories” that Russia was propping up in jap Ukraine.
That stunned many observers, since Mr. Putin had despatched army assist to Mr. Tokayev months earlier, when road protests in Kazakhstan threatened to deliver down the Kazakh chief.
Mr. Tokayev is the one one of many Central Asian leaders who now speaks with Mr. Zelensky, a senior Central Asian official mentioned, and Mr. Tokayev not too long ago pledged humanitarian assist.
Kazakh diplomats have deflected criticism from Moscow of a venture within the ravaged Ukrainian metropolis of Bucha. The venture, known as the “yurt of invincibility” and arrange by non-public corporations, consists of conventional nomadic buildings erected to present Ukrainians Kazakh meals and tea, and a spot to cost digital gadgets, since Russian strikes knocked out energy and warmth.
The geopolitical quake and toll of the struggle in Ukraine are felt keenly h in Kazakhstan. About 200,000 Russians fleeing the draft have sought sanctuary right here previously 12 months. Outdoors of that, the nation has 3.5 million ethnic Russians and 250,000 ethnic Ukrainians, in a inhabitants of 19 million.
“Kazakhstan can not assist however contemplate the case of Russian coverage towards Ukraine, which, if Moscow succeeds, may threaten Kazakhstan,” mentioned Arkady Dubnov, an professional on Central Asia in Moscow.
Nonetheless, these international locations should not dashing straight into the arms of the Individuals.
The Kyrgyz authorities is stalling on signing a cooperation settlement with Washington after years of negotiations. That might change one scrapped in 2014 after Russian strain compelled the closing of a U.S. air base exterior Bishkek that had been set as much as gas warplanes flying over Afghanistan.
Kyrgyzstan is worried that if it indicators, Russia might strike again by limiting the variety of Kyrgyz migrant employees who can work there.
Kazakh officers say the federal government has to steadiness pursuits with Russia, China and different highly effective nations.
Kazakhstan is the world’s largest landlocked nation, and it primarily depends on overland export routes by way of Russia and China to ship items to exterior markets. Oil makes up greater than 60 % of its exports — and it’s an business wherein American power corporations are deeply concerned and are desirous to develop.
The shock of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has accelerated Kazakhstan’s drive to develop transportation routes for oil and freight throughout the Caspian Sea, bypassing Russia, mentioned Peter Leonard, Central Asia editor for Eurasianet. And Kyrgyzstan revived a long-stalled plan final 12 months for a brand new railway by way of its territory to Uzbekistan and on to Europe that will curtail its dependence on Russia’s rail community.
“The Ukraine disaster has supercharged sweeping historic tendencies moderately than initiated them,” Mr. Leonard mentioned. Russian leaders, he added, “are counting on gravity to keep up their affect. They’re maybe complacent and boastful however really feel that even when Central Asia begins to wobble and strikes a bit exterior their orbit, it might not require an excessive amount of effort to pull them again in.”
Edward Wong reported from Astana, Kazakhstan, and Andrew Higgins from Warsaw. Valerie Hopkins contributed reporting from Moscow.
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