Brexit and tradition wars divide Labour and Tory voters extra, Sir John Curtice says

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Brexit and tradition conflict points are driving a firmer wedge between Labour and Tory voters, evaluation by main pollster Professor John Curtice has discovered.

Instantly after the Brexit referendum, Go away voters have been greater than twice as doubtless than Stay voters to say they have been Conservative. However this has now grown to 3 occasions as doubtless, in accordance with a brand new report from the Nationwide Centre of Social Analysis.

Opinions on the rights of trans persons are additionally a rising indicator of voting desire. Contributors of the British Social Attitudes survey have been requested whether or not they agree or disagree with the assertion: “An individual who’s transgender ought to have the ability to have the intercourse recorded on their start certificates modified if they need”.

Folks’s responses differed little by the social gathering they supported when the query was first requested in 2016. Nonetheless, a big political hole has now emerged between those that disagree that transgender folks ought to have the ability to change their start certificates and those that don’t.

Those that disagree with the assertion are 25 share factors extra doubtless than those that comply with say they’re a Conservative, Reform or UKIP voter.

Professor John Curtice, pollster and senior analysis fellow on the Nationwide Centre for Social Analysis (NatCen), mentioned: “It’s typically recommended that now that Brexit now not dominates the political agenda, that the battle for votes has reverted to being merely a contest between left and proper.

“Nonetheless, the terrain wherein the events are preventing is now a two-dimensional area wherein problems with tradition and identification, together with Brexit, are as essential because the divide between left and proper.”

There’s now additionally a stronger relationship between satisfaction for Britain and political social gathering desire, NatCen discovered.

The Labour social gathering and the Inexperienced social gathering are extra standard amongst individuals who say they’ve little or no satisfaction of their nation. Whereas the Tories are standard amongst people who find themselves extra patriotic.

Assist for the Conservatives or a Eurosceptic social gathering can be stronger amongst those that assume that equal alternatives for lesbian, homosexual and bisexual folks have gone too far.

Researchers at NatCen additionally discovered that the UK inhabitants turned extra liberal in angle in direction of immigration between 2014 and 2021, however this development has been partially reversed within the final three years.

Massive adjustments have been launched to the immigration system at begin of 2021 on the finish of the Brexit transition interval. The brand new system launched a points-based system for visas, and the post-Brexit choice standards was much less strict than these utilized to non-EU labour migration earlier than Brexit.

The consequence has been a surge in internet migration fuelled by folks, primarily from India, Nigeria and China, coming to the UK for work or examine.

The proportion of people that assume that migrants are good for the economic system is now dropping, from 51 per cent in 2021 to 40 per cent in 2024.

Equally in 2021, 48 per cent of individuals mentioned that migrants enriched Britain’s cultural life. This has now dropped to 43 per cent.

Gillian Prior, interim chief govt on the NatCen, mentioned that public attitudes towards immigration have change into “considerably extra optimistic since 2014”. However she added: “On the similar time, it is a matter on which we now have change into extra divided each socially and politically, and attitudes have shifted considerably within the opposition course extra lately. This helps to elucidate why the topic has change into one of many central points within the present common election marketing campaign.”