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The Virginia Home flipped to Democrats in 2019 and again to Republicans in 2021. Can Democrats win the three seats they should regain management of the chamber? Blue Virginia’s Lowell Feld joins us to run by means of the important thing races in each the Virginia Senate and Home and the way Democrats can win each chambers this November. We additionally look to 2024 and talk about some key bulletins in aggressive Virginia Congressional races.
Host David Beard and visitor host Joe Sudbay additionally cowl the massive information out of New Jersey, the place Sen. Bob Menendez has been indicted (once more) and this time most state and nationwide Democrats should not standing by him. We additionally talk about the long-awaited entrance of hedge fund CEO Dave McCormick into the Pennsylvania Senate race for Republicans; the Supreme Courtroom rejecting Alabama’s lengthy shot try to stop a brand new Congressional map; and the gerrymandered state legislative maps Ohioans can be utilizing for a minimum of one cycle.
Transcript has been evenly edited for readability.
David Beard: Hi there and welcome. I am David Beard, contributing editor for Day by day Kos Elections. “The Downballot” is a weekly podcast devoted to the various elections that happen beneath the presidency, from Senate to metropolis council. So if you have not, please subscribe to “The Downballot” on Apple Podcasts and depart us a five-star ranking and overview. David Nir is off for the subsequent few weeks, however we have the good Joe Sudbay becoming a member of us. Welcome, Joe.
Joe Sudbay: Thanks, David. I all the time love becoming a member of you on The Downballot. It’s my favourite podcast, and I am not simply saying that as a result of I’ll be guest-hosting with you. I actually imply it.
Beard: Effectively, it higher be your favourite once you’re on, on the very least.
Sudbay: Oh, actually, it is simply terrific. I simply assume telling the tales of what is occurring across the nation is absolutely vital and also you and David do it so effectively.
Beard: Thanks. We have got loads to cowl this week. We’re in fact going to be speaking about New Jersey the place Senator Menendez has been indicted once more, and Democrats appear to be not sticking by their man this time.
We will speak about Dave McCormick lastly moving into the Pennsylvania Senate race for the Republicans, which Mitch McConnell has been begging for for months. We will speak about redistricting information in Alabama and Ohio, after which we’ll be talking with Lowell Feld, the founding father of Blue Virginia, a progressive political website devoted to Virginia politics. We will be going by means of all of the aggressive races this fall in Virginia. So we have an important present developing and we’re nearly to get began.
So Joe, we have had one of many greatest information occasions, I feel shortly by way of the Senate, with this indictment of Senator Menendez that got here by means of just some days in the past. And this actually important shift the place we noticed a ton of individuals defending him from his earlier indictment and from when this investigation first began getting reported to now that this indictment is on the market, all this details about gold bars and all of those conferences with Egyptian officers and all of that, all the soiled particulars I assume at the moment are out within the indictment. And we have seen an enormous shift in each of us in New Jersey, Democratic politicians, and his fellow senators, by way of their assist for Senator Menendez.
Sudbay: Yeah, it has actually been. I used to be questioning when it first occurred, if it will be just like the final time — and David, that we’re even speaking about that there was a final time, I imply, Jesus Christ. And once I noticed the governor, Governor Murphy stated he thought that Menendez ought to resign, I assumed it was very important. After which additionally Senator Cory Booker, his seatmate in New Jersey, I assumed that was very important. I do assume it is vital, I do assume it is vital for Democrats to attract the road on corruption. And look, I am an legal professional, I am a believer within the judicial system. I would like him to have a good trial, however you already know what? I would like him to have a good trial whereas he isn’t a sitting United States senator. That is what I feel can be greatest for the Democratic Get together and truly for democracy.
Beard: Yeah, I feel there’s two factors. One, as you stated, in fact, he deserves a good trial. That does not imply he deserves to be a US Senator whereas all of this is happening, when it is clearly a detriment to each the folks of New Jersey and to the Democratic Get together of which he is part.
And secondly, it’s very acceptable for the Democratic Get together to say, like, “Hey, chances are you’ll or could not get convicted, however that is dangerous. We’re making an attempt to do good issues right here. We’re making an attempt to make America a greater place for the individuals who dwell right here. And also you being indicted and having all of this controversy is dangerous for what we’re making an attempt to do. So it’s essential step apart should you actually care in regards to the American folks and let any variety of different competent Democrats serve out your time period in order that we will maintain making an attempt to move good legal guidelines.”
Sudbay: And there are such a lot of good competent Democrats from New Jersey who may simply step in and be United States senators. And I do assume, David, once I noticed George Santos defending him, I assumed, okay, we do not want a Democratic member of the Federal Indictment Caucus. Let Santos have that and let Republicans proceed to defend him. I feel it is actually vital, as we have each stated, and I actually hope Menendez does the correct factor and resigns.
I feel the strain’s going to construct and we’ll see what occurs, however he isn’t going to be efficient. He can not be the chair of the Overseas Relations Committee, for chrissakes. It is simply an excessive amount of of a distraction. And the folks of New Jersey, this seat doesn’t belong to Bob Menendez, and I feel it is all the time vital to remind folks of that, this seat doesn’t belong to Bob Menendez. It belongs to the folks of New Jersey and so they deserve an efficient senator.
Beard: Sure. And we have seen loads of New Jersey Democrats this time round, fortunately, see that gentle and withdraw their assist for Senator Menendez. And I feel we have additionally seen someone already bounce in, Consultant Andy Kim, who received a aggressive seat in South Jersey again in 2018 and has received aggressive races since then.
He is already introduced that he’ll bounce into the Senate race, major Menendez. We have already seen quite a lot of county chairs in New Jersey say that they are not going to assist Menendez. And due to New Jersey’s very unusual machine system the place they’ve these county traces the place all of the incumbents are mainly on the identical row, which makes it very easy for all of them to run collectively. And loads of Democrats — and Republicans as a result of additionally they have the system — will simply go and vote the county line. So it is a large leg up.
So the truth that these county chairs are already pulling their assist from Menendez means it will be very, very arduous for him if he does attempt to run subsequent yr to have that assist and have the ability to even win a major if he is actually cussed and refuses to both step down or a minimum of retire. I type of doubt he’ll resign as a result of it will be nearly inconceivable to pressure him to resign, however a minimum of he ought to cease working for reelection in 2024 as a result of he isn’t going to even win the first.
Sudbay: Proper. At a minimal, that is what we should always hear from him. I am nonetheless pulling for resignation, Dave.
Beard: Yeah, I imply, we’ll see. The indictment — it appears not good for him, so possibly he’ll minimize a take care of federal prosecutors. He is been very forthrightly “I am harmless, I will show all this improper,” however I assume that is what you are going to say both manner. So we have seen prior to now, plea offers will typically contain a politician resigning from workplace, so we may see one thing like that. Clearly, there’s greater than a yr to the election subsequent yr, however I am unable to think about that he’ll be on the poll come November 2024.
Sudbay: Proper. I imply, look, gold bars have already develop into a meme. I imply, per week in the past nobody would’ve been speaking about gold bars. Now they are going to perpetually be linked to Senator Bob Menendez and it is arduous to beat.
Beard: Yeah, effectively, in order that’s been fairly the story for the week. However we did have one other piece of Senate information close by in Pennsylvania the place Republicans, after months and months of begging for his or her candidate to leap in, lastly obtained hedge fund CEO Dave McCormick to take a second chew on the apple. He, in fact, ran two years in the past and misplaced an in depth major race to Dr. Oz, who in fact went on to lose himself. So I assume McCormick thinks that he is obtained a greater shot for some cause now in 2024. However in fact, he is obtained an analogous situation to Ozin that his ties to Pennsylvania are a bit questionable.
Sudbay: Yeah, I imply, he is been dwelling in Connecticut. He is a Wall Avenue man, and it’s certainly one of these items: watch out what you ask for, NRSC Chair Steve Daines; you would possibly truly get it. And they also obtained their candidate; they have McCormick, however he’s working in opposition to a Pennsylvania establishment. Senator Casey has lengthy been a senator. His father was a governor. That is an institutional household within the commonwealth of Pennsylvania. And Casey’s going to run a distinct marketing campaign than Fetterman, however I hope they do the identical type of campaigning in opposition to an out-of-stater working to purchase their seat as Fetterman did in opposition to Oz, as a result of that is precisely what it’s. They’re making an attempt to purchase the Senate seat, and that is what Republicans assume they will do. We have seen it repeatedly. They go purchasing for a candidate who’s wealthy and can put in a bunch of cash.
I feel he put in like $14 million of his personal cash to lose in that major to Ozin 2022. So that is what they’re relying on. They’re relying on his deep pockets, however voters are going to be taking a look at various things in 2024, and Joe Biden’s going to be on the prime of the ticket in Pennsylvania, a state he received in 2020, and Casey and the Democrats within the state are taking nothing without any consideration. We simply noticed Governor Shapiro instituted automated voter registration, one thing that Republicans have been out of their minds about. Democrats are taking part in to win in Pennsylvania, and I feel that is actually vital. You possibly can simply really feel it.
Beard: Yeah, I discover it unusual how a lot the Republicans have performed up Pennsylvania as one of many prime races of the 2024 cycle. As you stated, Casey, I feel, might be one of many strongest incumbents in a swing state wherever. McCormick is clearly a wealthy dude. I am certain he’ll put in a ton of cash. I am certain the Republicans like that he’ll put in a ton of cash so they do not must. However past that, he would not have loads going for him. He would not have any sturdy ties or any favorability that will make you assume, oh, he is a very robust candidate exterior of the checkbook.
And McConnell has been itemizing it as one of many races together with the three races the place Democrats are up in states that Trump received: Ohio, Montana, and West Virginia. McConnell has been itemizing it because the fourth key state, which I simply assume is so unusual and should’ve been to attempt to induce McCormick into the race as a result of I might put it: Nevada has a aggressive race, Arizona has an odd scenario, Michigan, Wisconsin, there’s loads of races that could possibly be aggressive. And I would most likely put Pennsylvania beneath possibly all of these simply because Casey is so sturdy, and even when Biden has a troublesome go of it in 2024 in Pennsylvania, I might anticipate Casey to outrun him. So I do not actually see McCormick’s path to victory until it is a actually Republican yr.
Sudbay: Proper. I agree. I felt like I actually did. It goes to what I stated earlier, I really feel like they wished the cash. They do not need to must spend any cash in Pennsylvania. They wished to problem Casey. They’re hoping possibly that they will repeat a miracle of 2016 possibly by way of the presidential race, I do not know.
However I agree, I do not see it as a prime race. Casey has been a stable senator, and he is aware of the state, is aware of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. I imply, he’s a Pennsylvania man. He simply exudes it. And that issues in Pennsylvania.
Beard: And we have seen significantly, I feel in additional Midwestern or Northeastern states, which Pennsylvania type of straddles, that type of historical past actually issues. And there are some states, Georgia, Nevada, the place there’s lots of people transferring to these states. Being new to the state, would not matter as a lot essentially as a state like we have seen in Michigan, Pennsylvania, the truth that he is been there, he is an establishment, as you stated, that is going to matter to voters, significantly older voters, I feel. So I feel he is in good condition regardless of McCormick.
Sudbay: Yeah, regardless of McCormick and regardless of McConnell’s needs, I feel he is in good condition too. So I haven’t got the identical stage of concern about that as I do different states now.
Beard: It would’ve been our prime story of the week, if not for the Menendez indictment and all the stuff happening. There’s actual progress on the Alabama redistricting entrance. We had two items of stories right here. The Supreme Courtroom, with none dissents — who is aware of what they could’ve thought privately, however not one of the justices dissented.
They rejected Alabama’s long-shot attraction to cease the court docket in Alabama from imposing a brand new map. The Alabama case was actually identical to, “We do not like that you simply dominated in opposition to us the primary time. So what should you did not rule in opposition to us this time?” And I feel that the Supreme Courtroom, even for someone like Alito or Thomas, was type of like, “That is silly. We determined this three or 4 months in the past. Why are you again right here bothering us? We have got extra vital instances to rule conservatively on,” I feel in Thomas’s and Alito’s view.
In order that lastly ended that avenue, which implies the court docket in Alabama can be placing in a brand new map. And as a part of that, we noticed the particular grasp, who’s appointed by the court docket to type of give them choices, launch three maps. They’re all fairly related. The primary one is actually one of many maps that was submitted by the plaintiffs, by one of many plaintiffs. And the opposite two are very small variations on that very same map. All of them prioritized preserving all the districts, aside from the first and the 2nd, the identical. So all the center and northern Alabama districts, it’s the identical because the 2023 map that the legislature handed. And so all they do is change the first and 2nd districts to carry the 2nd district into compliance with the Voting Rights Act. So it is a second alternative district for Black voters in Alabama to elect a candidate of their alternative.
Sudbay: Yeah, it was an enormous transfer. I’ve to say. Once more, let’s simply admit we have been utterly shocked when the Supreme Courtroom issued the Milligan choice in June, and I feel there was loads of hope in right-wing circles that the Supreme Courtroom would ship once more, that Brett Kavanaugh had supplied simply sufficient of a window for them to return again. They usually actually thought that window was open and it was shut this weekend. Actually important, I imply, actually important.
And I feel that that was an enormous sigh of reduction for lots of people. In all probability not Leonard Leo and the Federalist Society sorts who thought that they had issues wired, but it surely was a great win for democracy. And yeah, these new maps, look, I feel there is a actually good likelihood, and you’ll already inform that issues are beginning to form up for brand spanking new elections.
We’ll have the brand new maps comparatively quickly. We’ll have a choice by the court docket and we could have new districts and we could have a aggressive district within the 2nd congressional district in Alabama, which, David, that is one thing we did not assume we might have the ability to say even three or 4 months in the past. It is a large deal and it is a good alternative for a Democratic pickup.
And look, that is going to be aggressive, which is nice. We’ll take aggressive races. One of many issues in a few of these states the place there’s a lot gerrymandering is voter turnout is down, there’s not that a lot curiosity. However when a aggressive race occurs, issues change and there can be cash spent and there can be organizing it. And I simply assume it is terrific. And I am actually trying ahead to seeing what the map truly seems to be and to seeing who emerges as candidates as a result of it will be nice.
Beard: Yeah, there’s two facets right here. Certainly one of which is that, yeah, it is most likely going to be a plus one Democratic pickup for Democrats within the state of Alabama going from one seat to 2 seats. We all know how shut the Home is. It is a five-seat margin. That is an enormous deal.
Nevertheless it’s additionally simply the flexibility for Black voters and largely Black Democrats in Alabama to have larger illustration, to get an opportunity to take part in democracy. In Alabama, it is so uncommon that Democratic voters have an opportunity to elect someone statewide. Clearly, we noticed Doug Jones win that loopy election in 2017. However by and enormous, it is a very pink state. And so, the statewide elections are largely Republican overwhelmingly.
And so the chance for these voters in southern Alabama to elect a Democrat, to have a aggressive race, the districts are largely about 55-45, Biden-Trump just a few factors right here or there. However in that, such as you stated, they could possibly be aggressive, significantly in a Republican-leaning yr, you would see the 2nd be a very aggressive seat. And that is all proper. However what black voters deserve is the possibility to have their voice heard on this district, and now they’re going to lastly have the ability to.
Sudbay: Yeah. You already know what was actually attention-grabbing and jarring, I feel for lots of people was the disdain that the Republican-controlled Alabama legislature had for the Supreme Courtroom ruling. The disdain that the governor, Governor Ivey, when she signed the road, stated, “We all know higher.”
And even this week, the Republican Legal professional Normal, Steve Marshall, issued an announcement that stated that they’d imposed a racist separate however equal gerrymander on the state. Which, I imply, that’s wealthy coming from a Republican Get together that has gerrymandered to dilute the ability of black voters within the state for nearly perpetually, until the federal judiciary got here in to overrule them.
However man, it was an enormous, I feel, an eye-opener for lots of people about simply how intensely a few of these Republicans, significantly in a state like Alabama, didn’t need Black voters to have their voices heard.
Beard: Yeah. And I feel we have seen different states the place maps have been struck down or Republicans have been actually upset, however we’ve not seen the identical response as we’ve got in Alabama. I feel it is nearly the proof is within the pudding, in the way in which that Alabama Republicans have reacted to this chance for Black voters to have a larger say is proof of how the Voting Rights Act continues to be wanted nationwide, clearly. However significantly in a state like Alabama the place there’s clearly such racialized voting and there appears to be an actual sense of shock that Black voters would have their voice heard on this scenario.
Sudbay: Completely. I hope Chief Justice Roberts, who pretended that racism would not exist within the Shelby County choice about 10 years in the past, was paying shut consideration, as a result of it does exist. And the Republican Get together in Alabama proved it again and again at each step of the proceedings.
Beard: Completely. Effectively, we have one final piece of stories for the weekly hits, and that is up in Ohio. It is one other redistricting occasion. The Ohio Redistricting Fee reached a “bipartisan” (quote unquote) settlement to move new state home maps — so state legislative maps — on Tuesday night time. They did move unanimously, however the two Democrats on the committee did not precisely move them enthusiastically.
Home minority chief Allison Russo — she stated, “To me, it isn’t a vote as a result of I feel these maps are truthful or that this course of labored the way in which that it was presupposed to. My vote is just to take this course of out of the fingers of this fee.” And the rationale why that is vital is that the fee, in the event that they did not have a vote that was bipartisan, would redraw the maps once more just a few years later. Whereas this fashion, so long as this course of is in place, the maps are locked in by means of 2030.
I feel the reasoning for the Democrats was to take these maps and never have it give the Republicans a second chew on the apple afterward. And look to subsequent yr when hopefully there can be an impartial redistricting fee on the poll for 2024 that may hopefully redraw these maps in a good manner as a result of it isn’t essentially the most excessive Republican gerrymandering we have ever seen, but it surely’s positively a Republican gerrymander.
Sudbay: Completely. It’s a Republican gerrymandering. And it is a state the place the voters have truly tried to repair the gerrymandering scenario prior to now, and it simply hasn’t come to fruition. There are 99 members of the home; this new map will give Republicans a 61 to 38 benefit.
Now, that is going to incorporate some tossups, though eight of these tossups are Democratic tossups and there can be three Republican tossups. However even 11 out of 99 aggressive seats is far more than there are proper now.
Within the Senate, there are 33 members of the Senate. The breakdown can be 23 to 10 for Republicans. Once more, there will be about 4 aggressive districts, three Republican, one Democratic, that could possibly be tossups. However I feel it is actually vital, consider these margins, 61, 38, 23, 10, big Republican benefit. It is a state the place on common Republicans received about 54% of the vote, and Democrats received 46% within the final decade.
These districts don’t signify that, and it is one other certainly one of these states. Look, Republicans have… We all know the shenanigans they are going to do. Look what we noticed in August with Problem 1, the place they tried to extend the brink to move a constitutional modification due to the modification that is developing this November on reproductive rights.
They don’t want the voters of their state to have any say or to have truthful participation within the course of. And it is a Republican trifecta state. Now they’ve a Republican-controlled supreme court docket, I imply a conservatively Republican-controlled Supreme Courtroom. They’re doing the whole lot they will to rig the system. And that is simply one other instance of it.
Beard: Yeah. And clearly, Republicans have persistently received statewide elections just lately in Ohio, however they’ve received them by six to eight factors, the aggressive ones. Biden, Trump; Ryan versus Vance in 2022. And so clearly a good map will most likely have barely extra Republican-leaning seats than Democratic-leaning seats and nobody’s making an attempt to argue in opposition to that. However clearly, the dimensions will not be 61-38 and 23-10. That is a a lot larger margin than you’d anticipate from truthful maps. And so like I stated, there’s hopefully going to be a redistricting fee on the poll in 2024. And so hopefully these maps should not used for a couple of cycle. And for 2026, we will get some extra truthful maps.
Sudbay: Proper. And naturally, the method of getting that poll measure on the poll is being sophisticated by the Legal professional Normal proper now, the Republican Legal professional Normal, who retains sending again and wanting new language. Once more, simply the entire course of that they put folks by means of to have truthful illustration is absolutely on full show in Ohio on a regular basis. It truly is on a regular basis, David. It is actually fairly superb.
And when you concentrate on it, not too way back, this was the quintessential swing state. It not is, but it surely’s not the… Such as you stated, I imply the margins should not as excessive as Republicans have been capable of form the districts to replicate.
Beard: Yeah. And we have seen progress within the Columbus suburbs, within the Cincinnati suburbs. It isn’t a state that is utterly fallen off the map by any means. In fact, there’s going to be an enormous battle to maintain Sherrod Brown in workplace subsequent yr. We’ll simply must see how issues progress in Ohio subsequent yr after which past.
That wraps us up for our weekly hits this week. In a second, we’ll be speaking with Lowell Feld from Blue Virginia to go in-depth on the Virginia state legislative races which might be occurring this fall so persist with us.
Becoming a member of us at this time is Lowell Feld, the founding father of the progressive website, Blue Virginia, and an skilled in all issues Virginia politics. Welcome, Lowell.
Lowell Feld: Effectively, thanks for having me.
Beard: Let’s begin off by simply having a state-of-play overview of Virginia. Clearly, we all know the state legislature is up for each homes, so give us a broad overview of the place issues stand proper now.
Feld: Yeah. Effectively, I imply the present lay of the land is that Democrats have a really small, tenuous I might say, majority within the state Senate, 22 to 18. In 2021, we had the governor’s election. And Glenn Youngkin sadly received that, however the state Senate wasn’t up that yr. That yr was the statewide workplaces after which the Home of Delegates.
Anyway, after which the Home of Delegates, we had had a 55-45 Democratic majority earlier than that election. After that election, sadly, we fell to 48 seats for the Democrats. Now Republicans have a 52-48 majority. We’ve got 22-18 within the Senate and so they have 52-48 within the Home. It’s totally shut. And the principle factor is now Glenn Youngkin, if he will get a “trifecta,” which is the Home, the Senate, and the governor’s mansion, they will just about flip Virginia into Florida or Texas or no matter horrible pink state you need to speak about right here as an analogy.
The factor is that he is pushing actually arduous as a result of he was not capable of accomplish all of his objectives within the first yr and a half or no matter it has been now of his governorship as a result of the state senate has been like a brick wall, a blue brick wall in opposition to the worst of his concepts and his occasion, banning abortion or huge tax cuts for the rich.
However he is carried out loads of injury nonetheless on this time as a result of he will get to a degree to all of the commissions and boards, management the… Now they’ve majorities on all of the electoral boards within the state, and that is very troubling. He is making an attempt to drag us out of the Regional Greenhouse Fuel Initiative, RGGI, which might be unlawful, however that is going to be in court docket. That is going to be a authorized case there.
He pulled us out of ERIC, which is the… I do not know, I neglect what the acronym is, but it surely’s the digital registration for voter registration; it is all of the states within the nation used to take part on this however now pink states have began pulling out of it due to mainly conspiracy theories and craziness on the far proper. He is doing that, after which it is simply, he is actually been going after our public schooling system in Virginia, the educating of historical past. His function mannequin governor in loads of methods, he stated, is Ron DeSantis in Florida.
Actually, I imply, there’s loads at stake in these upcoming elections on November seventh. Additionally, be aware that early voting’s already began. Voting’s happening, that began on Friday. And there appears to be fairly sturdy turnout to date. I imply in these off-year odd-year elections turnout, prior to now, earlier than Trump, earlier than the resistance, and earlier than all of the power that went into preventing again in opposition to Trump, it was very arduous to get folks to prove for these elections.
Lots of people do not deal with the state legislature, and we all know how vital they’re. I imply, we do, however like lots of people, possibly they’re realizing it extra. It was you’d get round 29, 30% turnout in these elections. And Democratic drop-off was worse than Republican drop-off, in order that’s one other downside. However in 2019, we had 42% turnout. It was greater. And this yr, I imply, I do not know, however we may even possibly we’ll surpass that. I do not know.
Youngkin has pushed very arduous for early voting for Republicans. They’ve invested some huge cash. He is gone on Fox Information one million instances and different right-wing media to essentially… As a result of Trump’s been attacking early voting for years and is demonizing it. However Youngkin sees that there is a big drawback for them. We Democrats have began off with an enormous headstart in these elections, with the early voting. So anyway, that is a bit little bit of — I imply, there’s loads to speak about in Virginia. There actually is.
Sudbay:
Again in 2017, earlier than the election, I feel it is actually vital to remind folks, Republicans managed the Home 66-34, nearly a 2:1 margin. Democrats stormed again in 2017, took the Home in 2019, as you talked about, after which misplaced it in 2021.
A number of of these races, Lowell, have been 100, couple hundred votes. That is the factor about these state legislative races, that they’re so shut, and they are often so shut.
And there are most likely eight to 10 actually aggressive Home races. Give us some concepts of a number of the races that you simply’re actually maintaining a tally of, that Democrats must win.
Feld: Yeah, I imply, it is attention-grabbing. As a result of yeah, you concentrate on, we truly had a redistricting modification handed in 2020, and so now, the legislators do not draw their very own districts.
I imply, that was an anti-gerrymandering, supposedly, modification. And but, nonetheless, the overwhelming majority of those districts should not actually aggressive. I imply, we’ve got the Virginia Public Entry Mission, which is a nonpartisan group, fairly effectively revered right here in Virginia.
They did an evaluation, just like the Home of Delegates — 100 seats — and so they discovered seven aggressive seats. And the state Senate, they discovered 4 out of 20, and actually, you would even slim it down greater than that.
Within the state Senate, I might say there’s actually, you would say two or three. Certainly one of them is within the suburbs of D.C. and Loudoun County, and a bit bit much less of Fauquier County. And that is, keep in mind, that is all new districts right here. We’re lastly working beneath the district.
That district is suburban, exurban DC, and it is trending, it leans blue, definitely in a presidential election yr. And that election is between Democrat Russet Perry, and Republican Juan Pablo Segura, who’s the son of a billionaire, right-wing billionaire, who’s mainly funding his marketing campaign.
However Russet Perry’s a really sturdy candidate. She’s obtained an important profile. Her background, I do not know should you talked to her, Joe, but. I feel you’ll have interviewed her, however…
Sudbay: Yeah. I used to be capable of, yeah, she’s nice.
Feld: Yeah, in order that’s a key race. I imply, that one, I feel, possibly is primary by way of races to control.
I feel additionally, down within the Colonial Williamsburg space, southeast Virginia, you may have an incumbent Democratic State Senator, Monty Mason, that is a very robust district. That is a purple aggressive district, and he actually wants to carry on.
If we will win these two seats, after which, there’s one different, Schuyler VanValkenburg, within the Richmond suburbs, in Henrico County. He is working in opposition to an incumbent state Senator, [Siobhan Dunnavant], a Republican. However that district’s, once more, redistricted, and it is a lot bluer than it was, so she ought to lose.
However you get these entrenched, these incumbents, and I feel she’s been pretty in style. Nevertheless it’s considerably of a brand new district, actually. In order that’s a key one proper there.
I imply, there are different ones, but when I have been going to say, that are absolutely the ones to deal with election night time, I imply, I feel positively, Russet Perry, she’s obtained to win. Monty Mason’s obtained to win, after which, Schuyler VanValkenburg.
Then you may have Danica Roem. That district is the Manassas space, Prince William County. She ought to be okay, and he or she’s a powerful candidate, and it is a fairly sturdy district, but it surely’s on the listing of 5, should you have a look at these totally different lists, the Virginia Public Entry Mission’s or others, that one’s listed as presumably aggressive.
Then there are ones, I imply, and keep in mind, Democrats have been outperforming throughout the nation in particular elections for your complete yr. So that you by no means know. I imply, possibly we’ll have a really sturdy night time, through which case, we may presumably win a pair others.
In Suffolk and the Southside, Clint Jenkins, the Democrat there, may presumably beat a Republican, Emily Brewer. And that will be nice. I imply, we may stand up to 23, 24 seats on this, out of 40 within the state Senate. That will be good to have a bit cushion. After which Joel Griffin within the Fredericksburg-Stafford space, he is working in opposition to Republican, Tara Durant, and an impartial candidate there, as effectively.
And I am unsure how that impartial’s going to attract extra from the Democrat or Republican. However anyway, I feel that is just about it for the state Senate.
I imply, possibly you may have any questions on that, earlier than we go to the Home of Delegates? Once more, there’s loads right here, so …
Sudbay: I did get to talk to Russet Perry on my present on the State of the State tonight — and I talked to Joel Griffin, too — and I discovered them each actually spectacular.
I feel it is vital that you simply point out, Russet’s opponent, his complete declare to fame is he is the son of a billionaire. That’s it.
Feld: That is about it.
Sudbay: And the opposite factor that appears to be type of pervasive, each within the Senate races and within the Home races is, the Republican candidates do not need to publicly speak about their positions on abortion. They’re doing the whole lot they will to keep away from that topic. And I feel that is actually attention-grabbing.
Feld: Yeah, I checked out that awhile, not that way back, however I have been taking a look at it; I wrote one thing about it a month or two in the past. You have a look at their web sites, and loads of them don’t have anything. Particularly within the aggressive districts, they only do not actually speak about abortion in any respect. They do not even point out it.
A whole lot of them try to run away from … See, that is the factor. In case you get them in a secret recorded video or one thing, then, typically they’re going to say their actual place, which often is, they imagine life begins at conception and all that.
However they do not say, that is not their public place, public-facing, no matter place on their web site, or something like that. They’re like, they do not even do not speak about all of it. Or they’re going to say possibly, the 15 weeks appears to be the factor they’ve settled on. I assume they’ve carried out loads of polling on this, and Youngkin settled on, he argues that is an affordable compromise.
And I feel, should you have a look at the polling, and possibly, I imply, Youngkin has loads of cash. I am certain he spent it on tons of focus teams and polling, or no matter. So possibly that is true, that 15 weeks is considerably in style, or not unpopular.
However I imply, the huge, positively the sturdy majority of Virginians, there was only a new ballot that got here out at this time, confirmed that the sturdy majority of Virginia assist the authorized proper to reproductive freedom, no query about that.
And solely a tiny share, I feel it was seven % for assist, completely banning it, which I feel is what the place is of loads of these Republicans, should you obtained them to talk actually. However they do not. However they will not.
Sudbay: That is proper. And Virginia, simply, I feel loads of our listeners know, is the final state within the South that enables reproductive alternative.
Feld: Yeah.
Sudbay: I imply, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida have all enacted these heinous six-week abortion bans. And that is all on the poll. It is all on the poll for November seventh.
Feld: Proper, and it is a big situation. I imply, everyone’s speaking about it. The TV adverts are popping out now, and Democratic adverts are saying no matter their opponent is, will vote to ban abortion. And actually, I feel they actually will.
I imply, Youngkin can speak about 15 weeks all he desires, but when they’ve the ability, you see what’s occurring with Kevin McCarthy proper now. He would possibly need to do no matter he desires to do, however he is being pushed by the far proper. And if the Republicans get energy in Virginia, the arduous proper on that is going to be pushing actually arduous for extra restrictive than 15 weeks.
I do not know. I imply, should you belief them? I imply, I do not, however possibly some voters do. However I imply, I discover that tough to imagine. However yeah, that is it.
Yeah, this new ballot that got here out at this time, by the way in which, had Democrats up little or no, I imply, by three factors or one thing like that, generic poll. So that is by the College of Mary Washington, a brand new ballot got here out, and it had Youngkin, truly, solely 40% approval ranking, and 37% disapproved, which is absolutely horrible for a governor on the whole.
Virginia governors, should you look again, I imply, effectively, this was within the previous days, Mark Warner was within the 90% approval, Kaine was within the seventies, however even Bob McDonnell and others have been a lot greater. Now, this is just one ballot, however I am not satisfied that Youngkin is that in style, actually. I am unsure what impact that may have.
Oh, the opposite factor hanging on the market, then we will speak possibly in regards to the Home of Delegates, however the authorities shutdown? That is an enormous wild card. I feel. It appears like it will occur.
I do not understand how lengthy it will go; I do not understand how dangerous it will get. However I do not assume that is what Youngkin and firm need proper now.
Virginia has an enormous variety of federal staff, navy, federal contractors, non-public contractors, as effectively. They usually actually get screwed, by the way in which, as a result of the federal staff, they are going to receives a commission finally, that is the legislation. They may get again pay. I do not assume the non-public sector contractors do, truly. In order that’s very dangerous.
Lots of people have payments coming, and so they cannot, yeah, you aren’t getting paid in the course of the shutdown. Finally you do, however in the meantime, it’s a must to pay your payments. So that would lead … I am unsure what political affect that may have, precisely.
The final time we had a shutdown proper earlier than an election was 2013, when Terry McAuliffe was working in opposition to Ken Cuccinelli, and McAuliffe ended up successful that election, not by loads. And I look again, I could not discover a actually clear indication that the shutdown gave McAuliffe a lift.
The one distinction again then, there was no early voting, basically. This time there’s huge early voting, so persons are already voting. Additionally then, the shutdown ended a few weeks earlier than the election.
I keep in mind, the subsequent day, the headlines within the paper turned instantly to the launch of the healthcare.gov web site debacle, or no matter. So the final two weeks was all about that.
However this time, the shutdown may go for awhile. There’s already voting, so it may have an effect. I imply, that is positively a wild card on the market.
Beard: Yeah, I feel if there is a state within the nation that’s affected essentially the most by the shutdowns, it is Virginia and Maryland, these states proper round DC. Each due to the federal employee populations, however additionally they have, such as you stated, important navy populations.
These are the voters within the aggressive areas, northern Virginia, down close to Norfolk, Virginia Seashore, that matter by way of these particular districts that Democrats must win.
Feld: Yeah, completely. Anyway, that appears like it will occur. I imply, I do not nearly see any manner out of it, at this level. In order that’s one thing to bear in mind.
And yeah, I do not understand how that is going to play out, however I do assume Republicans have been, I feel, Virginia Republicans. have been speaking internally to the Home Republicans, and making an attempt to get them to push this shutdown past the Virginia elections.
They do not need to take care of that within the subsequent few weeks, however I feel they are going to be. So, oh, effectively.
I imply, it sucks. I imply, I do not need it within the sense of, I feel it will damage lots of people.
Politically, it would assist us Democrats, however I nonetheless don’t desire it, as a result of I feel it is horrible.
Beard: Yeah. Like so many issues Republicans do, it may be each horrible for the folks that it impacts, and good politically for Democrats, as a result of it is so horrible for the folks that it impacts.
Feld: Proper. Yeah, I do know. So anyway, so that you need to transfer on to the Home of Delegates, speak a bit bit about that?
As a result of there’s, once more, within the Home of Delegates, so you may have 100 seats there. They’re all up. I might say there are possibly seven, eight at most, possibly ten or a bit extra seats which might be actually aggressive.
One seat, we’ll get this one out of the way in which possibly initially. One seat that I feel was positively aggressive was the one with, you’ll have heard of this lady, Susanna Gibson, she had a scandal the place there are intercourse tapes on the market, along with her and her husband. However anyway, so my understanding in that ballot simply got here out — this was a Republican ballot, however I’ve heard another data, as effectively, that she’s fallen. She was most likely main earlier than that, and now she’s not.
In order that’s a aggressive district within the Henrico, within the Richmond suburbs, a purple district. And it was winnable. She truly outraised her opponent. That was one I positively was maintaining a tally of, however now I am unsure it is aggressive anymore, so we could also be taking that one off.
So once I say there is likely to be seven, eight, 9, 10, it is arduous. That is fluid, considerably. I imply, a number of the large ones, I imply, there’s one within the Prince William County, in northern Virginia, Josh Thomas, that is an enormous one in HD-21.
That is type of western Prince William County: Gainesville, Haymarket. And he is working in opposition to the man, John Stirrup, who was the one who was recorded on that secret video, I do not know should you noticed the story within the Washington Publish just a few weeks in the past, however mainly saying, he desires to ban abortion.
That is an instance. I feel, should you get any of those candidates on secret recorded audio, that is most likely what they’d say, if they are not on guard. And apparently, he wasn’t. So anyway, I feel that one’s an enormous one.
I imply, I feel that is one Biden received by 27 factors in 2020, however McAuliffe misplaced it by 1.8 factors. You see that with the turnout in a presidential election. After which you may have the max turnout, Democrats positively turned out in droves for these elections. However you may have dropoff even in a governor’s election in 2021. And that is, I name it the off-odd yr election, or off-off, no matter you need to name it. And that is the lowest. So we’ll see. However I feel Josh Thomas, that is one to control for certain.
We’ve got an incumbent within the Richmond suburbs, Rodney Willett. That is a district that Biden received by 16 factors. McAuliffe received by 4. He ought to be okay, however you by no means know once more with the turnout, dropoff, all that. However he has to win. Bear in mind we’ve got to select up two for a 50-50 tie and three seats for a 51, a really slim 51-49 majority.
Josh Cole in Fredericksburg space, that is a district Biden received by about 12 factors. McAuliffe misplaced by about two. Once more, I feel Cole might be favored there and we’ve got to win that one. Michael Feggans within the Virginia Seashore space. That is one which Biden received by 12 factors. McAuliffe misplaced by two. Once more, obtained to win that one.
These are all essential races. I am making an attempt to think about another ones. I imply these are most likely the most important ones. They’re most likely the 4 large keys. There are a number of others that you would get into. Particularly with the shutdown and the whole lot, if it is an excellent night for Democrats, we may win one other one within the Suffolk-Chesapeake space. We’ve got one there the place it is a shut one. Biden received by two factors. McAuliffe misplaced it by seven factors.
So loads of these it will come all the way down to: does the turnout look extra just like the presidential and the gubernatorial? And gubernatorial election, keep in mind, was the yr after the White Home flipped and Virginia all the time flips the opposite manner. I imply, when Trump received, the subsequent yr, Ralph Northam, the Democrats swept to victory in Virginia by about 10 factors. And in 2008, Obama received. He received Virginia by six factors. The following yr, 2009, Bob McDonnell, the Republican received by 17 factors. That is like a 23 level swing. In order that reveals you what can occur.
So that is what occurred. That 2021 was a nasty yr, however nonetheless Youngkin solely received by about two factors. However the query is whether or not the turnout, it appears extra just like the 2017 to ’18, ’19. That is the blue wave type of years. Is it extra just like the 2021 yr, which wasn’t nice, 2022, which was extra neutral-ish type of, I feel these US Home and Congressional race. That is arduous to say.
And we’ve got early voting numbers coming in now, but it surely’s type of arduous to say who’s voting precisely. There’s some modeling you are able to do after which there is a agency that does it, L2 Politic Knowledge or no matter. After which there’s TargetSmart. They have not put out any numbers but, however L2 appears to be considering that Democrats have the sting proper now. However I am unsure should you have a look at another numbers, if that is … I am unsure how a lot confidence I put in that.
Sudbay: It is nonetheless early. It is nonetheless early voting. It is solely been not even a full week but. And a few of these races, once more, I do my present on SiriusXM that I speak to loads of the candidates and I’ve talked to Michael Feggans, he is terrific, and Josh Cole and Josh Thomas. And one of many issues, and it is a constant, additionally Kimberly Pope Adams, who’s working down in district 82, very aggressive race. And I all the time ask them, what are they listening to on the doorways?
And one of many causes I really like speaking to state lege candidates is they really must do the doorways. And we will see polling, you’ll be able to learn polling, you’ll be able to see focus teams, you’ll be able to hear the Washington pundits speak about issues. However once you’re speaking, knocking the doorways, you are truly listening to proper from folks. And man, the one constant theme I heard, and I heard it final yr too, once I was being instructed that abortion wasn’t a prime situation, abortion was a prime situation for the candidates who’re knocking doorways. Kimberly Pope Adams, that is a rural-ish district. And he or she stated proper off the bat, “Abortion, I hear it each single door I knock.” And I discover that basically fascinating. And once more, it is one of many the reason why Republicans try to cover their information. They realize it too.
Feld: Yeah. Yeah, that is a really attention-grabbing district. That is a mixture of rural and concrete. It is obtained Petersburg metropolis in there too. In order that’s one we’ve got to select up. We had that district. After which Lashrecse Aird truly was the, I do not know should you ever talked to her, however she was the delegate there and he or she misplaced in 2021 by little or no. And a number of other of these districts, we did lose by solely like 100 votes such as you have been saying. And now Lashrecse Aird truly knocked off in a major in June Joe Morrissey, who’s notorious for lots of causes. So she’s going to be within the state senate, truly. She’s going to finish up getting a promotion. She’s be within the state Senate.
However anyway, Kimberly Pope Adams is working for Lashrecse, basically that seat, though it has been modified, now it is redistricted. So yeah.
One different one, Travis Nembhard, that is a bit robust one in Western Prince William County. It is near Josh Thomas and Danica Roem. It is in that complete space, however his is a bit more troublesome. It is a bit … It isn’t as blue or a bit redder, however that is an attention-grabbing one too, to control.
Sudbay: He is terrific too. I talked to him too. I’ve stated, I’ve actually been fortunate. I’ve gotten to speak to, and truly, you’ve got helped me connect with loads of them too. Effectively, they’re simply terrific candidates, actually, an important group of Democratic candidates this yr.
And that basically makes an enormous distinction too, that you’ve got good candidates who’re on the market doing the doorways and perceive the realities of what we’re up in opposition to. And there is much more cash in these state legislative races than there ever have been actually.
Feld: Yeah, the cash is one other factor. I imply, should you had, and I feel we did speak a number of months in the past, and I feel I did say this, that my greatest fear was most likely cash. I imply, Youngkin is personally, I do not assume he’ll spend his private cash, however he’s price lots of of tens of millions of {dollars}. He made some huge cash at Carlisle Group, not essentially doing nice issues or no matter. However anyway. However he is been elevating loads of, if not most likely a lot of the Republican cash at this level is coming from his Spirit of Virginia PAC, which that cash, in flip, is coming from some actually nasty proper wing. The Nazi memorabilia man, for instance, in Texas, he is given a bunch of cash, I do not know, one million {dollars}, it was lots of of 1000’s a minimum of from that man, and just a few actually right-wing company, actually, slimeballs.
So it is out-of-state cash, however that is coming in. However Democrats have cash too. And I feel I have been ready for all of the nationwide teams, LGBTQ, gun violence prevention, voting rights, reproductive freedom. I imply, you simply title the problem. I have been ready for them to essentially are available, and so they have been extra now. And the Democrats, the Nationwide Democrats have are available with cash as effectively.
So I feel the final marketing campaign finance numbers, which have been by means of the top of August, seemed truly fairly good for Democrats. I imply, within the state Senate and Home of Delegates, we truly outraised the Republicans, which I used to be very pleasantly shocked truly about that, as a result of I used to be bracing myself for, oh my God, how a lot cash, darkish cash. Effectively, there’s darkish cash too. That is the opposite factor hanging on the market. The Koch brothers and others are taking part in round and placing cash into third-party expenditures that I am unsure how a lot cash’s sloshing round on the market. In all probability loads. In order that’s a problem.
Beard: Now, earlier than we allow you to go, I do know clearly 2023 is what everyone’s centered on, essential election, however Virginia does have three aggressive congressional races and there is been some pretty large occasions occurring in these races already. So may you give us only a transient rundown of the state of play in these races for subsequent yr?
Feld: Massive information that got here out the opposite day within the tenth Congressional district, which is Loudoun County, once more, the DC suburbs and different areas there too. However anyway, Jennifer Wexton, who’s the incumbent consultant there, introduced that she had been recognized with Parkinson’s illness, but it surely seems it is a lot worse; I feel it is known as PSP or one thing. Anyway, it is actually dangerous. So it is worse than Parkinson’s, simply common Parkinson’s. So she’s going to complete out her time period after which she’s not going to run for reelection.
And he or she defeated Republican Barbara Comstock again in 2018. And Wexton is nice. I imply, she’s in style, no matter. So we’re not going to have an incumbent, level is, within the tenth. And it is a lean Democratic, but it surely’s not stable Democratic. So it is a bit worrisome. And there’ll most likely be a… God is aware of what number of Democrats will run for that nomination. Might be 10, 12. I imply, I do not know. So anyway, that is one.
Abigail Spanberger within the seventh Congressional District, in fact you most likely have heard she’s positively, nearly definitely, going to be working for governor in 2025. That is our subsequent governor’s election. And keep in mind, Youngkin cannot run for reelection, one time period at a time. You possibly can skip a time period after which run. However anyway, so Spanberger, I am unsure if she’s going to run for reelection in 2024. However anyway, backside line of it’s: she goes to be working for governor in 2025, so sooner or later she’s going to be vacating that, and that is a purple-leaning blue, however just a few factors, it isn’t, once more, not a protected district essentially.
After which within the 2nd Congressional District the place we had an important congresswoman, Elaine Luria, who was on the January sixth Committee, obtained nationwide publicity from that and all that. After which that was redistricted and he or she type of obtained screwed within the redistricting moved positively within the pink route. And so we’ve got now Jen Kiggans, a Republican in there, and he or she’s terrible, I imply, I feel. So Luria’s not working, however we’ve got one introduced Democratic candidate and he or she’s been endorsed by lots of people, Missy Cotter Smasal, who’s a navy veteran, and he or she’s obtained a very good bio, type of considerably much like Luria’s in a manner, US Navy. And that is good. That is a very closely navy district down in that Hampton Roads space, main naval base and navy base there.
So anyway, these three are going to be, and so they’re all going to be roughly considerably aggressive. The tenth is leans blue, positively, the seventh, considerably leans blue, and the second is tossup. I imply, that is most likely a tossup at this level. I imply, it would lean barely pink, however in a presidential election yr, if it is Trump and Biden, I imply, I may see that district going for Biden by just a few factors. After which I feel the tenth will go for Biden. I feel the seventh will go for Biden. So actually the fear is extra 2026 and past, I assume, in a manner.
Beard: Effectively, this was an important rundown of Virginia elections clearly. We’ll be preserving an in depth eye on the state legislative races main up towards the election in November. The place can folks comply with you and listen to extra about Virginia elections?
Feld: My web site is bluevirginia.us after which, I hate to even point out Twitter/X at this level, however we’re on there nonetheless. I imply for a way lengthy, I do not know, but it surely’s that @BlueVirginia. After which we’re on each, just about all the opposite new ones. I imply Threads and Bluesky. It is loopy. I imply Spoutible. I imply, it is actually weird. Publish and Mastodon, I imply we’re on all these. It is all Blue Virginia just about if you wish to. In case you’re on any of these social media networks, otherwise you’re getting off of Twitter/X or no matter.
Beard: Thanks for becoming a member of us.
Feld: Okay, thanks loads.
Sudbay: Thanks, Lowell.
Beard: That is all from us this week. Because of Lowell Feld and Joe Sudbay for becoming a member of us. The Downballot comes out each Thursday in all places you take heed to podcasts. You possibly can attain out to us by emailing thedownballot@dailykos.com. If you have not already, please subscribe to “The Downballot” on Apple Podcasts and depart us a five-star ranking and overview. Because of our editor, Trever Jones, and we’ll be again subsequent week with a brand new episode.
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