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These numbers are extra essential than ever for understanding U.S. elections. On account of elevated political polarization and the decline of split-ticket voting, there’s now a really sturdy correlation between how a given district votes in presidential races and the way it votes for the Home. We will see this most vividly within the long-term decline of so-called “crossover” districts, which help one social gathering’s candidate for president however the different’s for Home.
Following redistricting, simply 14 Democratic-held seats would have voted for Donald Trump whereas solely 15 Republican-held seats would have backed Joe Biden, as proven within the chart beneath:
That whole of 29 is the third-lowest in a century. The bottom determine in that timeframe got here simply previous to redistricting, when there have been 16 crossover seats. The rise is to be anticipated, since each events sought to redraw maps in methods favorable to them (albeit with Republicans doing so in additional states and extra aggressively), however the totals are prone to shrink once more following the midterms.
Armed with these district-level presidential outcomes, then, we will determine which races are prone to be aggressive, and we will predict the result of most Home elections with a robust diploma of confidence. In an period when the reliability of polling has appeared unsure, this difficult information presents an essential different. In fact, it isn’t the be-all, end-all, which is exactly why Every day Kos Elections tracks marketing campaign information so carefully and shares it every day in our Morning Digest publication, however it’s a important element of all good Home election evaluation.
There are numerous different issues this new information tells us, too. On the highest degree, we all know that Biden would have carried 226 districts whereas Trump would have prevailed in 209, a slight enhance from Biden’s 224-211 edge previous to redistricting. However that topline obscures the way in which during which Republican gerrymandering has elevated the GOP’s benefit on what was already a enjoying area tilted in its favor.
We all know this as a result of the one most essential truth this information reveals is the id and traits of what is generally known as the “median district.” A useful method to assess how a lot the nationwide congressional map favors one social gathering or the opposite is to kind every seat by Biden’s margin over Trump (or vice versa) and see how the seat within the center—the median seat—voted.
That district is now Michigan’s eighth, a Democratic-held seat based mostly across the metropolis of Flint that may have voted for Biden by a 50-48 margin. On the floor, that may seem to be welcome information for Democrats: In the event that they have been to seize each seat bluer than the eighth—a helpful framework for illustrative functions—they’d win a majority within the Home.
However this district is in reality to the proper of the nation as an entire. Biden gained the nationwide standard vote by a margin of slightly below 4.5 factors, so his efficiency in Michigan’s eighth (the place his margin of victory was a shade over 2 factors) is 2.4 factors worse. With the Home so carefully divided, these 2.4 factors might make all of the distinction. What’s extra, this new median is additional to the proper than the pre-redistricting median, Illinois’ previous 14th District, which was 2 factors worse than Biden’s nationwide vote.
In fact, even in a wave election, Democrats nearly actually would not win each district bluer than Michigan’s eighth—there’ll at all times be some crossover seats (the bottom since 1900 was 5, in 1904). However wanting on the numbers this manner illuminates the built-in benefit that Republicans have earlier than even a single vote is solid, and the way that benefit grew this yr due to gerrymandering.
There’s rather more, particularly on the degree of particular person districts. For example, the bluest seat that Republicans are defending is Texas’ thirty fourth within the jap Rio Grande Valley, which might have voted for Biden by a 57-42 margin. There’s an asterisk right here, although, since two incumbents are operating in opposition to each other: Republican Rep. Mayra Flores, who flipped the previous thirty fourth in a particular election earlier this yr, and Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, who opted to depart behind his previous fifteenth District subsequent door and run within the bluer thirty fourth.
In the event you’re on the lookout for a extra simple reply, you will discover it in California’s twenty second within the southern Central Valley, which might have backed Biden 55-42. Rep. David Valadao is consequently one of the vital weak Republicans this yr and faces a stiff problem from Democratic Assemblyman Rudy Salas. Valadao is used to the headwinds, although, as his previous district supported Biden by the same 54-44 unfold.
His Democratic counterpart can be Rep. Tom O’Halleran, who noticed his sprawling 2nd District in northeastern Arizona develop into significantly redder, going from 50-48 for Biden to 53-45 for Trump. That dramatic shift happened as a result of the unbiased tiebreaker on Arizona’s redistricting fee voted for a GOP plan that, properly, favored the GOP.
Another notable superlatives that emerge from the info:
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Closest seat within the nation: Arizona’s sixth, 49.3-49.2 Biden—a margin of 0.1%, or about 300 votes
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Reddest seat within the nation: Alabama’s 4th, 80-19 Trump
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Bluest seat within the nation: Maryland’s 4th, 90-9 Biden (Biden gained a barely greater vote share however a barely smaller margin in Pennsylvania’s third, which was additionally 90-9)
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Reddest Democratic-held open seat: Georgia’s sixth, 57-42 Trump
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Bluest Republican-held open seat: Illinois’ thirteenth, 54-43 Biden
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District that bought probably the most redder: Tennessee’s fifth, 55-43 Trump (vs. 60-37 Biden)—a shift of 35 factors
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District that bought probably the most bluer: California’s eighth, 76-22 Biden (vs. 55-43 Biden for its predecessor, numbered the third)—a shift of 42 factors
In the event you dive in your self, you will discover a lot extra. As soon as once more, you’ll find all of our information proper right here, and we strongly encourage you to bookmark the hyperlink. And if you would like to play with the numbers your self, we have additionally made a spreadsheet model accessible. Please tell us what you uncover!
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