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- AK-AL: Rep. Mary Peltola leads with 47% and may be very more likely to win after ranked-choice voting tabulations are accomplished on Nov. 23
- AZ-04: Rep. Greg Stanton is up by 14%
- CA-09: Rep. Josh Tougher is up by 13%
- CA-21: Rep. Jim Costa is up by 6%
- CA-26: Rep. Julia Brownley is up by 8%
- MD-06: Republican challenger Neil Parrot is up by 2%, however as soon as tens of hundreds of mail ballots are counted, Rep. David Trone will nearly actually pull forward
- ME-02: Rep. Jared Golden leads with 48% and may be very more likely to win after ranked-choice voting tabulations are accomplished in the course of subsequent week
- NV-01, NV-03, NV-04: All three Democratic incumbents lead with solely Democratic-friendly mail ballots left to rely
That might take Democrats to 208 seats. In addition they lead in 5 seats the place their lead is extra doubtless than to not maintain up:
- CA-47: Rep. Katie Porter is up by 1%
- CA-49: Rep. Mike Levin is up by 2%
- OR-06: Democrat Andrea Salinas is up by by 2%
- WA-03: Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez leads by 5%
- WA-08: Rep. Kim Schrier leads by 6%
Add in these races and Democrats get to 213 seats, that means they’d want 5 extra for a majority. The remaining seats, nonetheless, are all robust for one motive or one other. Democrats do maintain a lead in a single extra seat, but it surely’s not clear how the ultimate votes will break:
- AZ-01: Democrat Jevin Hodge is up by 2% with 73% reporting
This may be seat quantity 214. The ultimate, majority-making seats are all locations the place Democrats are presently behind and wish later-counted votes to carry them again forward. In the event that they win every little thing listed above, then they’d must win 4 of those six seats:
- AZ-06: Democrat Kirsten Engel trails by 3%
- CA-13: Democrat Adam Grey trails by lower than 0.5%
- CA-22: Democrat Rudy Salas trails by 8% however 39% of the vote has been counted
- CA-41: Democrats Will Rollins trails by lower than 0.5%
- CO-03: GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert leads Democrat Adam Frisch by 0.12%, with an unknown variety of ballots left to rely. This race will doubtless go to a recount.
- OR-05: Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner trails by 2.6%
Lastly there are 5 aggressive GOP-held seats that haven’t been known as (CA-03, CA-27, CA-40, CA-45, NY-22), but it surely does not appear to be Democrats will have the ability to come again in any of those races.
However even when Democrats are unable to retain management of the Home, the truth that we’re even discussing the chance is outstanding. And in the event that they fall simply brief, Republicans could have solely the slimmest of majorities. The knives are already out for Kevin McCarthy, so be prepared for some severe GOP chaos.
You may assist make this majority occur! Donate now in order that Colorado Democrats can guarantee each vote will get counted within the race to defeat Lauren Boebert!
Holy crap, what an incredible evening! The place can we even start this week’s episode of The Downballot? Nicely, we all know precisely the place: abortion. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard recap Tuesday’s extraordinary outcomes, beginning with a clear-eyed examination of the problem that animated Democrats as by no means earlier than—and that pundits obtained so badly mistaken. In addition they talk about candidate high quality (nonetheless actually vital!), Democratic meddling in GOP primaries (good for democracy, really), and “tender” Biden disapprovers (numerous them voted for Democrats).
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