Erdogan Stays a Headache for Biden, Even After Ukraine Deal Assist

WASHINGTON — When Russia and Ukraine reached an settlement on Friday to unblock Ukrainian grain exports, Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, performed the function of benevolent statesman.

Seated subsequent to the United Nations secretary normal in an Ottoman palace in Istanbul, Mr. Erdogan stated the deal, which Turkey helped to dealer, would profit “the entire of humanity.”

President Biden’s administration welcomed the settlement, which may relieve a worldwide meals disaster intensified by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and blockade of its ports. Officers expressed skepticism about whether or not Russia was appearing in good religion, and Russian missiles struck the Ukrainian port metropolis of Odesa lower than a day after the pact was signed. Nonetheless, a White Home spokesman had counseled Mr. Erdogan for his efforts.

However privately, Mr. Erdogan has remained a supply of considerable irritation for Biden administration officers.

Days earlier than presiding over the grain settlement, the Turkish autocrat renewed a warning that he would possibly veto NATO’s plans to simply accept Sweden and Finland as members within the coming months, an act that will deeply embarrass the alliance and the Biden administration as they work to counter Russia. And Congress this month expressed misgivings about Mr. Biden’s pledge at a NATO summit in Spain final month to promote dozens of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey.

On Tuesday, Mr. Erdogan traveled to Tehran for conferences with Iran’s president, Ebrahim Raisi, and Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin. The photographs of two prime American rivals with Mr. Erdogan, the chief of a NATO nation, clashed with the Western narrative of a deeply remoted Iran and Russia, analysts stated.

Then on Friday, a White Home spokesman reiterated U.S. issues about Mr. Erdogan’s threats to mount a brand new invasion of northern Syria focusing on U.S.-backed Kurdish fighters whom he considers terrorists.

Taken collectively, Mr. Erdogan’s actions — and Mr. Biden’s restricted capability to restrain them — underscore the Turkish chief’s distinctive place as a army ally often at odds with the agenda of his Western allies. To U.S. officers, it’s an usually maddening function.

“Erdogan is principally the Joe Manchin of NATO,” stated Elizabeth Shackelford, a former Overseas Service officer, referring to the conservative Democratic senator from West Virginia who has stymied Mr. Biden’s home agenda. “He’s on our crew, however then he does issues which might be so clearly not good for our crew. And I simply don’t see that altering.”

However Biden administration officers say that writing off Mr. Erdogan completely could be self-defeating. His nation’s place on the crossroads of East and West is strategically vital and permits him to be an interlocutor with much more troublesome neighbors — as evidenced by the grain deal, which created a demilitarized hall by way of the Black Sea for Ukraine’s agricultural exports.

A senior U.S. official stated that a lot of Mr. Erdogan’s problematic conduct was a perform of his political weak spot in Turkey, the place the inflation price climbed to virtually 80 p.c final month. Hoping to shift consideration from his mismanaged financial system, Mr. Erdogan has turned to chest-thumping shows of nationalism and demagogy over the risk from the P.Ok.Ok., a Kurdish separatist motion in Turkey, and Kurdish teams in Syria.

Main NATO initiatives, just like the proposed growth of the 30-member alliance to incorporate Sweden and Finland, require unanimous consent. Mr. Biden stated in Might that he hoped the 2 international locations may “rapidly” take part what could be a significant strategic blow to Mr. Putin.

However Mr. Erdogan raised objections, complaining that each potential new members have lent political and monetary assist to the P.Ok.Ok., which america has designated as a terrorist group due to its historical past of violent assaults. U.S. and NATO officers nervous that the deliberate growth may collapse in a significant propaganda win for Mr. Putin, who has lengthy labored to divide the alliance.

NATO leaders heaved sighs of aid at their summit final month when Mr. Erdogan reached an settlement with the leaders of Sweden and Finland, who pledged to behave in opposition to terrorist organizations and be a part of extradition agreements with Turkey, which desires to prosecute P.Ok.Ok. members residing in these international locations.

Mr. Biden appeared particularly grateful for the breakthrough. “I need to notably thanks for what you probably did placing collectively the state of affairs with regard to Finland and Sweden,” he instructed Mr. Erdogan within the presence of reporters.

The 2-page settlement stated in generalized language that Sweden and Finland would handle Turkey’s “pending deportation or extradition requests of terror suspects expeditiously and totally.” However Turkish officers have stated they count on the extradition of greater than 70 people. It was unclear whether or not Sweden and Finland would agree or how Mr. Erdogan would possibly react if they didn’t.

On Monday, Mr. Erdogan warned that he may nonetheless “freeze” NATO’s growth if his calls for weren’t met.

Mr. Biden additionally instructed Mr. Erdogan in Spain that he supported the sale of 40 American F-16 fighter jets that Turkey requested final fall, together with expertise upgrades for dozens of fighters it already owns. Turkey desires these planes partially as a result of the Trump administration canceled plans to promote the nation superior F-35 fighter jets in 2019 after Mr. Erdogan, in certainly one of his extra confounding current strikes, bought Russia’s S-400 antiaircraft missile system in defiance of U.S. warnings.

Mr. Biden denied that he supplied the planes to purchase Mr. Erdogan’s assist for NATO’s growth. “And there was no quid professional quo with that; it was simply that we must always promote,” he stated. “However I want congressional approval to have the ability to do this, and I feel we will get that.”

Congress’s approval is probably not a given. And it was unclear whether or not Mr. Erdogan would possibly block NATO’s proposed growth till he reaches a deal on the F-16 jets.

This month, the Home authorized an modification to an annual army coverage invoice requiring Mr. Biden to certify that any sale of the fighter jets is in America’s important nationwide pursuits and that Turkey is not going to use the jets to violate the airspace of Greece, its Aegean Sea neighbor and fellow NATO ally, with whom Ankara is engaged in a bitter territorial dispute.

Consultant Chris Pappas, Democrat of New Hampshire and the modification’s sponsor, additionally cited Mr. Erdogan’s buy of the Russian missile system and equivocal place towards Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Mr. Erdogan has known as the invasion “unacceptable” however has not joined sanctions imposed by america and its allies on Russia.

“Sufficient is sufficient,” Mr. Pappas stated. “Turkey has performed either side of the fence in Ukraine. They haven’t been the dependable ally that we must always have the ability to rely on.”

“I feel the Biden administration must take a stronger stance,” he added.

As soon as the White Home formally requests that Congress approve the sale of the planes, Mr. Biden will want the assist of different influential members who’ve been extremely vital of Mr. Erdogan, together with the Democratic chairman of the Senate Overseas Relations Committee, Bob Menendez of New Jersey.

Mr. Menendez has beforehand questioned whether or not Turkey belongs in NATO in any respect. And at a listening to final month on the proposed NATO growth, he stated that “with time of the essence, the Eleventh-hour issues by Turkey standing in the best way of this course of solely serve Putin’s pursuits.”

Mr. Menendez additionally issued a press release final month along with his Republican counterpart on the Overseas Relations Committee, Senator Jim Risch of Idaho, sternly warning Mr. Erdogan in opposition to his threatened invasion of northern Syria. They had been joined by the Democratic chairman of the Home Overseas Affairs Committee, Consultant Gregory W. Meeks of New York, and his Republican counterpart, Consultant Michael McCaul of Texas.

Within the assertion, the lawmakers stated the potential invasion would have “disastrous outcomes,” threatening native operations in opposition to the remnants of the Islamic State and exacerbating Syria’s humanitarian disaster.

A Pentagon official not too long ago added to the American warnings.

“We strongly oppose any Turkish operation into northern Syria and have made clear our objections to Turkey,” Dana Stroul, a deputy assistant secretary of protection, stated this month on the Washington Institute for Close to East Coverage. “ISIS goes to benefit from that marketing campaign.”

A few of Mr. Erdogan’s harshest critics warn of an infinite cycle, during which the Turkish chief wins concessions from america and different NATO allies, resembling new fighter jets and a harder line in opposition to Kurdish militia fighters, solely to escalate his calls for sooner or later.

“This dance across the F-16 — it’s jet fighter diplomacy, and that may be a masks of what’s really at play right here,” stated Mark Wallace, founding father of the Turkish Democracy Undertaking, a gaggle extremely vital of Mr. Erdogan and his flip to authoritarianism. “An excellent ally — a lot much less a superb NATO ally — doesn’t use blackmail to get what it desires at key moments within the alliance’s historical past.”

Julian E. Barnes contributed reporting from Aspen, Colo.