Eurozone GDP: French financial system in stagnation; UK store worth inflation falls – enterprise stay | Enterprise

Newsflash: France has prevented falling right into a technical recession, after stagnating within the final half of 2023.

Statistics physique INSEE has acquired eurozone GDP day (particulars right here) up and working by reporting that France’s financial system was secure in October-December, with development of 0.0%.

Commerce supported the French financial system, whereas its home financial system struggled.

INSEE explains:

Remaining home demand (excluding inventories) contributed negatively to GDP development this quarter (‑0.1 factors after +0.4 factors in Q3 2023), because of the lower of gross mounted capital formation (GFCF, ‑0.7% after +0.2%) and of family consumption (‑0.1% after +0.5%).

Conversely, overseas commerce recovered in This fall 2023 and contributed positively to GDP development (+1.2 factors after ‑0.1 factors). Imports fell sharply (‑3.1% after ‑0.4%), whereas exports remained just about unchanged (‑0.1% after ‑0.6%).

Lastly, the contribution of stock adjustments to GDP development was adverse once more this quarter (‑1.1 factors after ‑0.3 factors in Q3 2023).

France’s GDP for the third quarter of 2023 has been revised up too, to indicate zero development, not the 0.1% contraction beforehand reported.

Over 2023 as an entire, France’s financial system grew by simply 0.9%, down from 2.5% development in 2022.

Inflation throughout UK outlets has fallen to its lowest degree since Might 2022, as households benefitted from a slowdown in worth rises of meals and different items.

Annual store worth annual inflation eased to 2.9% in January, new information from the British Retail Consortium and NielsenIQ present. That’s down from 4.3% in December, which means costs are nonetheless rising, however at a slower price.

Meals inflation decelerated to six.1% in January, down from 6.7% in December, helped by a fall within the worth of tea and milk, Alcohol, although, remained dearer than a yr in the past on account of elevated duties, the BRC says.

Contemporary meals inflation dropped to 4.9%, down from 5.4% in December, whereas non-food inflation eased to simply 1.3% in January, down from 3.1% in December.

This may occasionally cheer the Financial institution of England, which is because of set UK rates of interest at midday on Thursday.

Helen Dickinson, chief govt of the British Retail Consortium, mentioned:

“Some New 12 months cheer as January store worth inflation slid to its lowest degree since Might 2022. Non-food items drove the autumn, as many retailers provided closely discounted items of their January gross sales to entice shopper spend amidst weak demand.

Excellent news for the morning brew as the value of tea and milk fell, whereas night tipples remained dearer on the again of elevated alcohol duties.

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling protection of enterprise, the monetary markets and the world financial system.

We get a significant healthcheck on Europe’s financial system this morning, as new GDP information for throughout the eurozone is launched.

Progress figures for France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Austria and Portugal shall be launched over the following few hours, culminating within the first estimate of eurozone development within the remaining quarter of 2023.

And it might present that the eurozone is in recession. Economists predict that GDP within the single-currency bloc shrank by 0.1% in This fall 2023. If that’s the case, that will be the second quarterly contraction in a row (GDP fell 0.1% in July-September), assembly the technical definition of a recession.

The eurozone financial system has been weighed down by excessive rates of interest, and the price of residing squeeze brought on by the leap in power and meals costs after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The euro weakened yesterday forward of right now’s information, as Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG, explains:

EUR/USD is buying and selling decrease at 1.0832 (-0.18%) forward of the EA flash GDP information, anticipated to indicate a second consecutive quarter of contraction (-0.1% exp) and make sure the Euro Space entered recession.

Additionally arising right now

In a busy morning for financial information, we’ll additionally study if UK grocery inflation fell within the final month, and whether or not lenders accepted extra, or fewer, mortgages.

The US financial system, which has been doing somewhat higher than Europe, will even be in focus, with the most recent JOLTS report into job vacancies, a shopper confidence report and a home worth index.

We additionally get a healthcheck on the worldwide financial system, with the Worldwide Financial Fund releasing an replace to its world financial outlook this afternoon.

There will even be disruption on UK railways right now, as members of the Aslef union at Southeastern, Southern/Gatwick Categorical, Nice Northern, Thameslink and South Western Railway strike in an ongoing pay dispute.

The agenda

• 6.30am GMT: French GDP report for This fall 2023

• 8am GMT: Kantar’s newest UK grocery inflation information

• 8am GMT: Spanish GDP report for This fall 2023

• 8am GMT: Austria’s GDP report for This fall 2023

• 9am GMT: Germany’s GDP report for This fall 2023

• 9am GMT: Italy’s GDP report for This fall 2023

• 9.30am GMT: Portugal’s GDP report for This fall 2023

• 9.30am GMT: UK mortgage approvals for December

• 10am GMT: Eurozone GDP report for This fall 2023

• Midday GMT: Mexico’s GDP report for This fall 2023

• 1pm GMT: IMF to publish its January World Financial Outlook Replace

• 2pm GMT: US home worth index for November

• 3pm GMT: Convention Board index of US Shopper Confidence

• 3pm GMT: JOLTS survey of US job openings