Every part is correlated – Econlib

Gwern has an glorious essay on how every part is correlated, and really hardly ever does the correlation indicate causation.  I used to be reminded of that essay after I learn this tweet:

Along with female and male happiness because the Sexual Revolution, these graph additionally present female and male happiness . . .

1. over 50 years of financial progress

2.  since Nixon’s Warfare on Medication was initiated

3.  since abortion was legalized

4.  since divorce legal guidelines have been liberalized

5.  throughout a interval of accelerating civil rights for girls, blacks and gays

6.  throughout a interval the place computer systems more and more dominated our lives

7.  throughout a interval the place households grew to become smaller

8.  because the creation of the EPA and OSHA

9.  throughout a interval the place our politics grew to become more and more polarized

So why does Ross Douthat single out the Sexual Revolution?  Is it as a result of he doesn’t just like the Sexual Revolution, for causes basically unrelated to this happiness survey?

I don’t occur to consider the reported happiness knowledge tells us a lot of something in regards to the precise happiness skilled by people.  If requested how joyful I used to be, I wouldn’t even know how one can reply the query.  In comparison with what?  I do not know how joyful different individuals are, and therefore haven’t any “baseline” to provide a zero to 10 score for myself.  Maybe trendy media shops current an more and more dazzling picture of the nice life skilled by the wealthy and well-known, making people who find themselves simply as joyful as in 1970 charge their nicely being decrease than they might have 50 years in the past.  Virtually something is feasible.

For the sake of argument, lets assume that reported happiness does inform us one thing significant.  Most of these 9 listed elements clearly had little influence on reported happiness.  Is there a “story” the place the Sexual Revolution may clarify these adjustments?  Positive, there are many tales.  Some have argued that the Sexual Revolution helped enticing males on the expense of girls, which could clarify the larger decline in reported feminine happiness.  However two factors are value noting.  First, male happiness additionally declined.  Second, male happiness now equals feminine happiness.  Is {that a} good factor?  Once more, I don’t belief the information. However whether it is to be taken severely, has the Sexual Revolution given us gender equality?

It may appear weird to assert that financial progress made us much less joyful.  Don’t folks take pleasure in having extra items and companies?   Sure, however couldn’t the identical be stated about intercourse?  The argument that the Sexual Revolution diminished happiness clearly wants some nuance, some oblique results.

Whereas there are believable tales about how the Sexual Revolution may need made us much less joyful, I may simply as simply invent tales the place financial progress made us much less joyful.  A lot of our latest financial progress has been pushed by the pc revolution.  Maybe we used to socialize in bowling leagues, and now we sit at dwelling on their lonesome and use social media to obsess over how different folks have extra mates and higher holidays than we do.  Notice that the Sexual Revolution was at its peak round 1980, whereas female and male happiness took an enormous drop after the early 2000s, simply as social media was ramping up

Would Tyler Cowen have retweeted a tweet indicating that happiness was declining as laptop use elevated?

Do I consider that financial progress makes us much less joyful?  Not likely, or at the very least I’m agnostic on the difficulty.  Simply as I don’t consider every other rationalization for why we’re much less joyful.  Certainly, I don’t even consider that we’re much less joyful. 

Satirically, I usually play the contrarian in the wrong way, claiming that financial progress has not boosted happiness and justifying that perception by pointing to the truth that folks don’t appear any happier than after I was younger.  However in addition they don’t appear much less joyful than earlier than.  In terms of happiness, agnosticism looks like essentially the most wise angle.

PS.  Elsewhere I’ve argued that classical liberalism is the system that maximizes human happiness.  Since 1970, we’ve liberalized in some instructions (homosexual rights, marijuana) and gone backward in others (the TSA, tobacco).   Web change?  Onerous to say.  Are we happier?  Onerous to say.  Are we much less joyful?  Onerous to say.