Gauging the Energy of Myanmar’s Armed Resistance

By: Michael Hart

Within the months since Myanmar’s February 2021 coup, conflict is now not restricted to the mountainous hinterlands and has come to its central plains. New resistance forces, assembled to oppose the junta put in by military chief Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, have proliferated throughout the nation, including to an already complicated set of ethnic armed teams which have battled the navy for management of distant border areas for generations.

The plains, predominantly residence to the bulk Bamar inhabitants, had beforehand been freed from riot. The brand new resistance, taking in Folks’s Protection Forces (PDFs) and different native militias aligned with the exiled Nationwide Unity Authorities (NUG), is stretching the sources of the navy. However how sturdy actually is Myanmar’s armed resistance, and might it threaten the junta’s rule?

Battle in Bamar heartland

The post-coup resistance started to take form in Could 2021, when the NUG—composed largely of elected parliamentarians from the ousted Nationwide League for Democracy (NLD)—introduced the formation of the folks’s protection forces, later declaring a “defensive conflict” in opposition to the junta. As of June 2022, it claimed that greater than 500 such teams have been affiliated with the parallel authorities—although others have opted to stay impartial, together with native protection teams that function in cities and rural areas. 

For these which might be affiliated, the NUG has tried to unify them by a central command construction. These teams obtain funding from the government-in-exile, and in response to its protection minister U Yee Mon consist of fifty,000–100,000 fighters. The NUG claimed in September that resistance forces and ethnic armies collectively managed over half of Myanmar. But that doesn’t equal governance or uncontested authority in lots of areas, as an alternative reflecting a level of native management. PDF presence, specifically, can shortly be eroded by navy offensives, making territorial claims troublesome to evaluate.

What does symbolize a noticeable change from earlier than the coup is the widespread presence of anti-government resistance forces within the central areas of Magway, Mandalay and Sagaing. The Bamar majority that populates these areas was “pacified” to a big extent within the years previous to the navy takeover as a consequence of its broad help for the NLD authorities, led by Aung San Suu Kyi, which the military dominated alongside for 5 years. As quickly as her administration was toppled by the coup, any tolerance of the navy amongst NLD voters evaporated and the following crackdown led many to take up arms.

PDFs in central Myanmar have proliferated quickly and now pose a significant drawback logistically for the navy, denying it a beforehand secure route to move troopers, weapons and tools to confront armed teams working in ethnic states within the north (Kachin), east (Shan) and south (Kayin). Convoys are actually at excessive threat of ambush, and junta sources are stretched extra thinly as troops battle PDFs. 

A mismatch in capabilities

The navy is, nevertheless, nonetheless far stronger than the resistance. It has as much as 356,000 energetic troops and one other 107,000 serving in paramilitary models, and is assisted by pro-regime Pyusawhti militias which have change into extra energetic in response to the anti-coup backlash. Regime troopers have the load of a big standard military behind them, with entry to computerized rifles, tanks and armored autos.

NUG-aligned forces have come up in opposition to this utilizing largely improvised weapons—with solely a small proportion of PDFs supported by massive ethnic armies within the northeast accessing trendy rifles and rocket-propelled grenade launchers. Throughout a lot of the nation, PDF members have labored in makeshift factories to assemble their very own primary weapons from locally-available supplies—studying primarily from movies shared on social media and from rebels with current information and expertise. It’s harmful work and lots of have died in accidents whereas assembling or testing explosives or firearms. 

Weapons generally manufactured by PDFs embrace slingshots, crude single-shot firearms, remotely-detonated improvised explosive gadgets (IEDs), and landmines. Some declare to have produced mortar and artillery techniques with a variety of two–9km, firing shells stuffed with lead and scrap metallic, although the reliability and effectiveness of such weapons is unproven. Rebels are additionally reported to have captured firearms from the military and in some circumstances have developed 3D printed weapons to make use of in guerilla assaults.

Battle for Myanmar’s skies

Because the battle has intensified, PDFs have begun to launch extra bold front-foot operations, specifically utilizing drones re-fitted to drop explosives on junta positions. This tactic minimizes the chance of insurgent casualties whereas permitting PDFs to have interaction in additional strategic reasonably than reactive warfare, as has been the case for a lot of the insurgency, with camera-fitted reconnaissance drones additionally used to establish military outposts and monitor troop actions. The NUG not too long ago established its personal drone unit, “Federal Wings,” to centralize operations. It views this as a precursor to an eventual air drive.

The navy has responded by putting in anti-drone weapons and sign jammers at susceptible outposts, whereas deploying surveillance drones of its personal and mimicking the ways of the PDFs by utilizing drones to drop bombs. On this space although, it has to date been the tech-savvy rebels who maintain a bonus.

But regardless of this ingenuity, the navy retains its total dominance within the skies, boasting an arsenal of fighters jets and assault helicopters largely equipped by China and Russia. This consists of MiG-29, Okay-8, Yak-130, and Nanchang A-5 plane, and Mi-17 and Mi-24 helicopters. The navy has additionally deployed tactical unmanned aerial autos (UAVs) to observe insurgent actions forward of strikes. An air assault on a music live performance organized by a significant ethnic armed group in Kachin state in October, which killed 60 folks, exemplifies the junta’s lethal supremacy from the air. Colleges and monasteries allegedly used as PDF bases have additionally been focused, with the junta using largely indiscriminate ways.

The junta’s escalating air marketing campaign seems set to proceed unimpeded. Rebels lack entry to surface-to-air missiles wanted to shoot down assault jets, whereas no exterior actors will help the imposition of a “no-fly zone.” The West is preoccupied with the conflict in Ukraine and sees little strategic curiosity in Myanmar, whereas ASEAN has stayed out of the battle in keeping with its precept of non-interference. Neighboring powers India and China have successfully supported the junta’s rule and would object to internationalization of the battle on their borders, that means that PDFs are basically on their very own.

Ethnic armed organizations

One factor that would tilt the stability is the place of Myanmar’s main ethnic armed teams, of which there are greater than 20. Whereas just a few—notably the Kachin Independence Military (KIA) within the far north and the Karen Nationwide Union (KNU) within the south—have supplied coaching and shelter to PDFs and even fought alongside them, most have stayed out of the post-coup battle and are reluctant to work with the Bamar-dominated opposition, given the historic marginalization of ethnic minorities.

Essentially the most highly effective ethnic armies, together with the 30,000-strong United Wa State Military (UWSA) which controls territory alongside the border with China, have prioritized conserving stability in their very own areas of curiosity. The smaller teams—a few of which had inked a nationwide ceasefire with the navy previous to the coup—have additionally adopted a broadly impartial place, whereas holding out for a future peace deal. In August, the weaker ethnic armies rejected a name by the navy regime to change into a part of a border guard drive, arguing that self-determination and ethnic minority rights should first be secured by negotiations—there may be little hope for that, with the coup basically having ended the peace course of.

Warfare in a fragmented nation

Myanmar now faces an escalating and deeply intractable multi-fronted armed battle. PDFs will be capable to deny the navy efficient management over massive swathes of the nation by a resolute and widespread guerilla insurgency, whereas missing capability to defeat a bigger standard navy drive. In the meantime, ethnic armed teams retain their dominance within the northeast and different border areas, the place state presence has been additional weakened as junta sources come below rising pressure.

In a fragmented land of many homelands, and with a big phase of the Bamar ethnic majority at conflict with the navy, it’s exhausting to see a manner out. Solely an eventual negotiated answer, leading to a federal system that grants energy and a tangible sense of quasi-nationhood to ethnic minorities, will maintain Myanmar intact as a governable state. There is no such thing as a doubt that the Tatmadaw is the key block to this eventuality—which is ironic because it has lengthy claimed to be the protector of Myanmar, a unifying drive. Its ill-judged coup has served solely to ignite violence and gas extra widespread inner strife.

Michael Hart has researched for the Worldwide Institute for Strategic Research (IISS) and Motion on Armed Violence (AOAV), and is publications advisor on the Landmine and Cluster Munition Monitor. He blogs at Asia Battle Watch.