Greece, Turkey vie for US items — on the different’s expense – POLITICO

ATHENS — Greece and Turkey’s competing bids to win U.S. consideration, cash and weapons are roiling the area, with battle already raging subsequent door.

The longtime Mediterranean rivals have out of the blue discovered themselves in a outstanding place because the U.S. and its Western allies reorient their army forces to constrain Russia’s march into Ukraine, which sits simply throughout the Black Sea from Turkey and northeast of Greece. And each nations are enjoying totally different playing cards to argue that it — and never the opposite — is a very powerful close by ally for the U.S. and NATO. 

Greece desires to be generally known as the “dependable and predictable ally,” whereas Turkey is providing a prepared army and connections past the West.

Already an EU and NATO ally, Greece has granted the U.S. army open-ended entry to pivotal army bases and is now taking in U.S. liquefied pure fuel. Notably, Greece additionally isn’t run by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who has irked U.S. officers with Russian weapons purchases and anti-democratic conduct.

“Greece is projecting its usefulness in distinction to Turkey, and the position it may play for the U.S., along with a gaggle of different allies, in its place, since they can’t belief Erdoğan,” mentioned Constantinos Filis, director of the Institute of World Affairs and a professor of worldwide relations on the American School of Greece.

However Athens can’t change some information, Filis famous: “The West sees Turkey as a vital ally for them, a political hinge within the area, a really massive market and a military keen to go on numerous missions.” 

Certainly, Turkey is portraying itself as uniquely suited to facilitate between Russia and Ukraine. The nation has tried to dealer talks to restart Ukrainian grain exports, welcomed each Russian exiles and Ukrainian refugees, and provided Kyiv with drones, even because it dodges becoming a member of Western sanctions in opposition to Moscow.

“Turkey is making an attempt to place itself diplomatically to leverage the affect it has achieved throughout the battle in Ukraine,” mentioned Sinan Ülgen, a former Turkish diplomat who’s now a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe in Brussels.

The dueling pitches are driving native instability.

Erdoğan minimize off all bilateral talks with Greece after Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis urged U.S. lawmakers in individual to dam Turkish arms gross sales. Army provocations quickly soared, creating probably the most risky scenario because the two sides virtually got here to blows in 2020.

With elections on the horizon in each Greece and Turkey — and highly effective U.S. provides at stake — deescalation will not be anticipated any time quickly.

“The posturing has extra to do with broader geopolitical positioning amid shifting balances than home politics,” mentioned Emre Peker, a Turkey and EU professional in danger evaluation agency Eurasia Group. “So, the structural tensions are right here to remain.”

The simmer begins to boil

Greece and Turkey’s shifting relationships with the U.S. had already created low-simmering tensions between the 2 nations even earlier than Russia launched its battle in Ukraine.

Lately, Greece has grown tighter than ever with the U.S. as historic skepticism towards the worldwide superpower thawed and Turkey grew to become an everyday irritant to the Western alliance. American company cash began flowing into Greece. Athens welcomed the U.S. army into new bases all through Greece.

Inevitably, nevertheless, the developments spilled into the Greece-Turkey relationship.

“The Greek authorities portrays the U.S. bases as a deterrent to Turkey, however in actuality, their presence has nothing to do with Turkey,” mentioned Ülgen, the previous Turkish diplomat. 

“This political communication technique has been adopted by the nationalists in Turkey, who repeat the identical argument,” he added. “They are saying, ‘Look what the U.S. and Greece are doing in opposition to us,’ and this additional escalates the scenario between the 2 nations.”

After the Ukraine battle broke out in February, Greece and Turkey each took steps that bolstered their standing in Washington’s eyes.

Greece swiftly started transport weapons to Ukraine regardless of appreciable dissension at residence, ultimately incomes a shoutout from the U.S. Protection Division. Turkey handed alongside the drones that gave Ukraine precision air-strike capabilities, which proved vital to its protection.

Later, Greece even seized an Iranian oil tanker off the Greek coast at Washington’s request, struggling penalties for serving to its ally when Iran grabbed two Greek oil tankers in response.

Initially, it additionally appeared Greece and Turkey could put aside a few of their variations in favor of wartime unity — Mitsotakis and Erdoğan met in March, furthering these hopes. 

But the 2 nations had been shortly again at odds, with the U.S. often on the middle.

In Could, Mitsotakis flew to Washington and made headlines in Greek and Turkish media when he warned Congress in a high-profile tackle that arms gross sales to Turkey would exacerbate instability within the area.

Turkey has been in search of a reprieve on weapons purchases from the U.S. since being minimize out of the American F-35 fighter jet program over its buy of a Russian air protection system. It’s now in search of F-16 jets as an alternative.

But throughout his journey, not solely did Mitsotakis attempt to tank Ankara’s F-16 buy, however he additionally confirmed Greece now wished to purchase the F-35s Turkey can now not entry. 

“There isn’t any one named Mitsotakis for me anymore,” Erdoğan fumed in response.

“Mitsotakis taking his gripes with Turkey to Congress actually didn’t go down nicely in Ankara,” mentioned Peker, the EU professional with Eurasia Group. “It’s not solely a private affront to Erdoğan, who places a variety of inventory into bilateral relations, but in addition undermines broader Turkish belief in a working mechanism between Ankara and Athens.”

Turkey could now be not directly taking its case to the U.S. through NATO, the place Ankara has halted Sweden and Finland’s makes an attempt to affix the army alliance.

Whereas Turkish officers argue the nations can’t be admitted till they finish assist for Kurdish teams that Ankara deems to be terrorist organizations, observers say Turkey additionally sees a chance to arm-twist Washington into approving its request to purchase dozens of U.S. F-16 warplanes. 

“NATO and the U.S. are a degree of reference for each nations,” mentioned Filis, the Institute of World Affairs director. 

From phrases to actions

Within the meantime, Greece and Turkey’s rhetorical barbs are translating into the bodily realm — and additional reeling within the U.S. 

Every nation has accused the opposite of airspace violations, whereas high-ranking Turkish officers are additionally difficult the sovereignty of Greek islands within the Aegean Sea. Turkey’s nationwide oil firm, in the meantime, is vowing to start out drilling for fuel in disputed waters. 

On the land borders, Greek officers mentioned they’ve deployed extra personnel and despatched water cannons, tear fuel and flash grenades to discourage any potential mass entry of migrants. The purpose is to keep away from a repeat of March 2020, when Erdoğan declared the borders open amid a spat with Athens, letting 1000’s of individuals attempt to cross into Greece.

Inevitably, these bilateral disputes spill over into worldwide arenas — the United Nations, the European Union and, after all, the U.S., even when it has traditionally tried to remain impartial throughout the two nations’ disagreements. 

“Greece’s sovereignty over these islands is unquestionable,” mentioned a U.S. State Division spokesperson, reiterating the standard line from Washington that Greece and Turkey are each vital U.S. and NATO allies and may work to resolve their variations diplomatically.

However years of failed diplomacy don’t encourage a lot hope that bilateral reconciliation is on the horizon. The 2 nations can’t even agree on what “bilateral” means, mentioned Filis. 

“For Greece, it means we must always discuss to one another,” he mentioned. “For Turkey, it means don’t go to any third events” just like the U.S.

“However,” he added, “is there any likelihood {that a} Greek PM may severely go to debate whether or not the Greek islands belong to Greece or whether or not Turkey may fly over Greek territory?”