How India Can Broaden its Relationships With Central Asia – The Diplomat

On December 6, prime safety officers from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan arrived in New Delhi for the primary India-Central Asia assembly of nationwide safety advisors. Indian Nationwide Safety Advisor Ajit Doval highlighted the India-Central Asia relationship, emphasizing their frequent shared pursuits, reminiscent of stabilizing the safety scenario in Afghanistan and reinforcing territorial integrity. 

The assembly got here 10 months after the first-ever India-Central Asia summit, which reignited the momentum to develop a burgeoning India-Central Asia relationship.

In January 2022, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi presided over the India-Central Asia Summit with all 5 Central Asian heads of state current. The digital assembly demonstrated India’s dedication to its “Prolonged Neighborhood Coverage,” which requires New Delhi to diversify its geopolitical companions and diplomatic objectives, and its willingness to have interaction its Central Asian companions on a large number of fronts.

Regardless of the receptiveness of the Central Asian governments, for the reason that summit crises like Russia’s battle in Ukraine, international inflation, meals insecurity, and strategic considerations have overshadowed India’s ambitions to bridge the geopolitical divide with Central Asia. As evidenced by the current NSA assembly between India and the Central Asian states, safety stays the focus of Indian-Central Asian relations, however India should forge hyperlinks with this dynamic area by way of transit, commerce, funding, and people-to-people connections with the intention to cement New Delhi as a dependable and long-lasting associate in Central Asia amid geopolitical challenges.

India-Central Asia Relations: A Safety Focus

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Countering violent extremism has lengthy been the focus of India-Central Asia relations. In 1995, Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon assessed that Dushanbe and New Delhi would wish to coordinate to defend their establishments from malign terrorist teams. Since then, the bilateral relationship has been characterised by joint counterterrorism initiatives, just like the Tajikistan-India Joint Working Group on Counter-Terrorism.

Moreover, India has tried to spice up its safety presence within the area by renovating army bases in Tajikistan. Throughout the days of the Northern Alliance, India operated a army hospital in Tajikistan’s Farkhor district to service opposition fighters towards the Taliban. It was closed after the Northern Alliance was disbanded however rumors circulated – though with out proof – that India maintained an air power presence at Farkhor. India did spend about $70 million to renovate the Ayni Air Base in Tajikistan between 2002 and 2010. There are not any studies that India has stationed plane on the base, and consultants point out that it stays unused. If operational, the airbases would provide India a strategic benefit towards its two adversaries: China and Pakistan. Tajikistan is situated near the Wakhan Hall, which connects Afghanistan and China, in addition to Pakistan-administered Kashmir.

India joined the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Group (SCO) – which incorporates Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan – as a full member in 2017. The grouping supplies New Delhi with a discussion board to determine safety relationships with Astana, Bishkek, and Tashkent, including on to sturdy ties with Dushanbe. For instance, India hosted the joint anti-terror train underneath the SCO’s Regional Anti-Terrorist Construction (RATS) with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Russia taking part. The joint train affirms the India-Central Asia safety partnership and contributes to India forging complete partnerships throughout Central Asia.

Geopolitical Pressures Reshape Relations

Shifting perceptions of crucial safety threats are impacting the India-Central Asia relationship. Whereas the SCO goals to sort out regional safety considerations, its enlargement to incorporate India, Pakistan, and most just lately Iran, has considerably reframed the safety discussions inside the group. At the newest summit for the security-focused group, India famous commerce cooperation amid pandemic-related provide chain disruptions and rising prices of power and meals imports as crucial areas of concern. 

India will assume the rotating presidency of the group and host the 2023 summit. Its place as SCO president might grant New Delhi the leverage to form subsequent yr’s agenda to prioritize interregional connectivity and shared financial points.

Modi has beforehand advocated for bolstering connectivity with Central Asia. Modi met with Uzbekistan President Shavkat Mirziyoyev on the sidelines of the twenty second SCO summit held in Samarkand in September to emphasise the broadening of their international locations’ bilateral relationship. 

Russia’s battle in Ukraine and the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan have uncovered the geopolitical vulnerabilities of the landlocked Central Asian states. India ought to take the chance to strengthen itself as a constant associate to Central Asia. Joint counterterrorism efforts enable New Delhi to flex its safety capabilities within the area and monitor its adversaries from a more in-depth vary. Nevertheless, with out resolute coordination on different points to complement the safety facet, the India-Central Asia relationship is vulnerable to geopolitical, financial, and home stress.

Transferring Ahead

This yr’s slew of geopolitical crises positioned immense stress on current bilateral relationships and examined the resiliency of collaboration by multilateral engagements. Each India and the Central Asian states search further companions past their conventional allies to counter this geopolitical stress and increase their reaches previous their quick neighborhood. India and the Central Asian states would profit from a burgeoning relationship supported by initiatives throughout a number of sectors.

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Safety considerations stay the crux of the India-Tajikistan bilateral relationship. Rising this rapport to incorporate different Central Asian international locations would reveal New Delhi’s readiness to encapsulate all the area in its overseas coverage agenda. The US repeatedly interfaces with the Central Asian international locations by its C5+1 multilateral format. Equally, Japan launched the “Central Asia plus Japan” dialogue in 2004 to strengthen its diplomatic and financial cooperation with the area. Creating an analogous multilateral format – constructing on the 2022 summit – would give India a greater launching level for additional engagements with its Central Asian companions.

On the financial entrance, India ought to promote itself as an entrepreneurial hub to its Central Asian counterparts. India boasts greater than 38,000 formally acknowledged start-ups and has risen to change into the third-largest supply of tech start-ups globally. New Delhi might use its place as a know-how hub to community its nascent tech entrepreneurial sector with that of Central Asian international locations. In November, India hosted the UNESCO India-Africa Hackathon, which convened like-minded people from India and the African continent to make use of laptop programming to resolve social points. Equally, college students from 10 Southeast Asian international locations participated alongside Indians on the ASEAN-India Hackathon, held final in 2021. Central Asian international locations have instituted a number of initiatives, just like the Central Asia Regional Financial Cooperation (CAREC) Digital Technique 2030 to scale digital know-how and improve digital literacy throughout the area. India’s tech sectors can present help and experience to help Central Asian international locations.

Though bettering connectivity between India and the Central Asian states is a objective for New Delhi and Central Asia, an adversarial Pakistan and Taliban-ruled Afghanistan prohibit ambitions. As a substitute, India can promote the institution of air corridors with Central Asian states to facilitate the motion of individuals and items between the subcontinent and Central Asia. This methodology would improve the amount of commerce and endorse people-to-people relationships. Air Astana resumed direct flights between Almaty and New Delhi in December 2021. Likewise, Tajikistan resumed flight service between Dushanbe and New Delhi in April after a hiatus because of the pandemic.

Improved connectivity would additionally streamline the method for hundreds of Central Asians searching for medical remedy in India. On the India-Central Asia Enterprise Discussion board, Indian Minister of Exterior Affairs S. Jaishankar talked about the significance of medical tourism and the necessity to increase it. Not solely would simplifying the medical tourism course of encourage better connectivity between India and Central Asia, however it will additionally additional medical info exchanges and coaching. As an illustration, Uzbekistan provided 2,000 Indian medical college students spots in Uzbek universities after the scholars have been pressured to evacuate Ukraine because of the Russian invasion.

Safety is the muse of India’s relationships with Central Asian international locations, and it continues to be essentially the most compelling consider bridging New Delhi with the area. Nonetheless, India and the Central Asian states should diversify their relationships to incorporate different sectors and technique of cooperation to bolster the relationships’ resiliencies and forge multi-pronged partnerships shifting ahead.