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It is truthful to say that the Rugby World Cup has not gone too nicely for the Wallabies.
A report defeat by the hands of Wales following a primary defeat in 69 years to Fiji noticed the Wallabies lose two consecutive matches at a World Cup for the primary time.
And but, extremely, there’s a situation the place the Wallabies nonetheless make it by to the quarterfinals.
This is what must occur.
Qualification is in Fiji’s fingers
Qualification for the quarterfinals is nicely and really out of the Wallabies’ fingers.
The defeat to Fiji within the second group sport signifies that the Pacific Islanders have the higher hand because of their higher head-to-head report.
In consequence, Fiji want one competitors level in opposition to Portugal to substantiate second place within the pool.
Which means Fiji both want a win (4 factors), a draw (two factors), a loss by fewer than eight factors (one level) or to rating 4 tries or extra (one level) to undergo.
If, nonetheless, Fiji get nothing from the match, Australia will qualify for the quarterfinals as pool runners-up behind Wales.
Can Portugal assist the Wallabies with a win?
Former All Blacks nice Andrew Mehrtens mentioned it could take “some form of debacle in opposition to Portugal” for the Fijians to not qualify — however that does a disservice to Os Lobos.
“Completely [Portugal can beat Fiji],” Wallabies assistant coach Dan Palmer mentioned.
“I’m trying ahead to that sport. They confirmed [against Australia that] they’re a powerful crew, so after all they’ll do it.”
Wallabies prop Angus Bell mentioned in a World Cup, something might occur.
“Clearly Portugal tied with Georgia so, it is a World Cup, it is anybody’s sport,” he mentioned.
“In the event you carry out on the day and all the things clicks collectively, something can occur.
“We’re going to preserve coaching arduous and making ready like we’re within the quarterfinals till we aren’t.”
What do Portugal suppose?
Portugal coach, former French worldwide Patrice Lagisquet, has been stuffed with reward for his crew, saying they nonetheless shock him with the best way they play in opposition to the highest nations.
“This crew nonetheless has some issues to enhance however we’ve loads of delight after taking part in in opposition to such a crew,” Lagisquet mentioned after the Wallabies match.
“We developed lots after two months of preparation. They managed to problem this Australia crew. That is incredible.
“Once I see territory [stats], I see we performed whole rugby. We scored a attempt from a maul.”
He believes the problem for Portugal once they tackle Fiji would be the physicality.
“It is a very well-structured crew at a bodily degree,” he mentioned.
“I’m nervous. They did not handle their attacking sport in opposition to Georgia and they’ll handle that higher in opposition to us.
“I do not suppose it is related to attempt to reproduce what Georgia did. They lastly cracked bodily. They put Fiji at risk once they put loads of quantity again into the sport.
“Sure, the counterattack on the finish of the primary half was the turning level for them however we do not have the identical high quality as Georgia or the identical DNA. We do not but have sufficient expertise to regulate our sport.
“Alternatively, we will take inspiration from their defensive high quality as a result of they defended excessive and prevented the Fijian powerhouse from expressing itself.”
What do Fiji say?
Fiji coach Simon Raiwalui is beneath no illusions the match in opposition to the Portuguese might be a tough take a look at.
“They’re a really, superb crew,” he mentioned.
“They like to play rugby. I am not shocked as we’ve been taking a look at them since we knew they have been in our pool.
“They play a extremely good model of rugby and so they have confirmed that at this World Cup.
“They have a really thrilling again three and their forwards are actually coming into their very own as nicely. You noticed that within the Wallabies sport — they put stress on them at scrum time and so they had an excellent lineout.
“We predict a extremely good match.”
How can Portugal win?
Portugal performed nicely in opposition to the Wallabies, impressing a lot regardless of the 34-14 defeat.
“For certain the world is aware of a bit bit about Portuguese rugby now. Once they’ve received house, they’re unreal,” Wallabies participant Rob Leota mentioned.
In wingers Rodrigo Marta and Raffaele Storti, with fullback Nuno Sousa Guedes, Portugal has severe tempo out large and so they look to make use of it — they play the fourth-most of any crew 30 or extra metres away from the breakdown, searching for width 13 per cent of the time.
“A whole lot of their gamers have a background in sevens, so that they love house, and once you give them house they counter[attack] nicely, so that they actually put us to work there,” Leota continued.
“They have been superb at unstructured [play], and all credit score to them.”
Now, who does that remind you of?
Two-time Olympic males’s sevens champions, Fiji are the normal pleasure machines of World Rugby and have continued in that vein at this World Cup — however have paid for it in effectivity.
The Flying Fijians have conceded essentially the most turnovers per sport (17.7), which implies simply 61 per cent of their possessions finish positively, which is nice information for Portugal, who rank fourth for essentially the most profitable turnovers per sport with seven.
They do keep a powerful quantity of possession although (the second most of any crew within the event), ensuing within the second-highest variety of carries per sport (138) and have shaped essentially the most rucks (94 per sport) with the second-best retention (95 per cent).
Fiji play in the appropriate areas too, recording the third-most phases (37) within the purple zone — and have spent the second-most period of time there per sport, (05:22) from simply 8.7 entries per sport.
They are not afraid to assault from deep although. Fiji have scored the second-most quantity of factors from outdoors the purple zone per sport (6.0).
That flamboyant work within the unfastened is constructed off a dominant scrum base — Fiji are the one crew but to lose a scrum at this World Cup.
Fiji even have essentially the most dominant collisions per sport, 44.3 — which is able to concern Portugal who’ve made the fewest dominant tackles per sport of anybody within the competitors with 5.7 per sport.
Tellingly, Fiji have the very best general self-discipline, conceding simply eight penalties per sport, with simply 5 per sport in defence.
So, c’mon Os Lobos!
Wallabies coach Eddie Jones was requested whether or not or not he could be supporting Portugal of their match in opposition to Fiji.
“It isn’t a matter of supporting Portugal,” Jones mentioned.
“We’ve got achieved all we will. We won’t management the end result so I’m not going to spend an excessive amount of time worrying in regards to the end result.
“We’ve got had our go on the World Cup. We’re sitting the place we’re.
“We settle for our place, and if it occurs and we get one other probability so be it, but when it would not we’ve solely received to have a look at ourselves.”
Palmer expressed comparable ideas in his press convention.
“It isn’t ideally suited that it is out of our fingers however that is the place we put ourselves in,” he mentioned.
“Now we’ll go away, clean up, then put together as if we’re taking part in a quarterfinal and see what occurs.”
Who awaits within the quarterfinals?
Regardless of who qualifies for the quarterfinal, it’s set for an intriguing match-up.
With England set to high Pool D, that’s who the second-placed finisher will meet within the quarterfinal at 1am on Monday AEDT in Marseilles.
Which means a reunion for Eddie Jones along with his former expenses within the England set-up, or a repeat of Fiji’s pre-World Cup shock at Twickenham.
Comply with all of the motion as Fiji takes on Portugal to determine Australia’s destiny in our dwell weblog from 6am on Monday AEDT.
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