Inside Trump’s Determination to Skip the G.O.P. Debate

On a cool August night time on the crowded patio of his non-public membership in New Jersey, former President Donald J. Trump held up his cellphone to his dinner companions.

The Republican front-runner was having dinner with a Fox Information contributor and columnist, Charlie Damage, when a name got here in from one other member of the Fox staff. The person on the opposite finish of the road, Mr. Trump was delighted to point out his visitors, was Bret Baier, one of many two moderators of the primary Republican debate on Wednesday, in accordance with two folks with information of the decision.

It was Mr. Trump’s second Fox dinner that week. The night time earlier than, he had hosted the Fox Information president, Jay Wallace, and the community’s chief government, Suzanne Scott, who had gone to Bedminster, N.J., hoping to steer Mr. Trump to attend the controversy. Mr. Baier was calling to get a really feel for the previous president’s newest considering.

For months, Fox had been working Mr. Trump privately and publicly. He was maintaining them guessing, in his patented petulant approach. However whilst he behaved as if he was listening to entreaties, Mr. Trump was continuing with a plan for his personal counterprogramming to the controversy.

The previous president has instructed aides that he has made up his thoughts to not take part within the debate and has determined to submit a web-based interview with Tucker Carlson that night time as a substitute, in accordance with folks briefed on the matter.

Upstaging Fox’s greatest occasion of the 12 months could be provocation sufficient. However an interview with Mr. Carlson — who was Fox’s top-rated host and is at struggle with the community, which continues to be paying out his contract — quantities to a slap within the community’s face by Mr. Trump. The choice is a possible supply of aggravation for the Republican Nationwide Committee chairwoman, Ronna McDaniel, who privately urged him to attend, together with in her personal go to to Bedminster final month.

However Mr. Trump’s main motive in skipping the controversy shouldn’t be private animosity towards Ms. McDaniel however a crass political calculation: He doesn’t need to danger his big lead in a Republican race that some near him imagine he should win to remain out of jail.

However that’s not the one motive.

‘They Purposely Present the Completely Worst Photos of Me’

Mr. Trump’s relationship with Fox — a long-running saga that has been each profitable and, extra just lately, extraordinarily pricey for the community — is the opposite challenge that looms giant in his enthusiastic about the controversy, folks near him stated.

His professed hatred of Fox — and the animus he typically privately expresses concerning the chairman of Fox Company, Rupert Murdoch — is blended along with his recognition of Mr. Murdoch’s energy and a grudging acknowledgment that the community can nonetheless have an effect on his picture with Republican voters.

“Why doesn’t Fox and Mates present the entire Polls the place I’m beating Biden, by loads,” Mr. Trump posted on his web site, Reality Social, on Thursday morning, venting concerning the community’s morning present. He added: “Additionally, they purposely present the completely worst photos of me, particularly the large ‘orange’ one with my chin pulled approach again. They assume they’re getting away with one thing, they’re not.”

The Fox staff engaged on the controversy has ready two units of plans for Wednesday night time: One for if Mr. Trump exhibits up and one other for if he doesn’t. Mr. Baier has spoken to Mr. Trump at the very least 4 occasions over the cellphone to make his case. Mr. Trump has defined his reluctance, however at all times left the door open to a late change of plans, in accordance with folks acquainted with the calls.

Fox executives anticipate the viewers for Wednesday’s debate to be decrease than the report 25 million who watched the primary Republican debate in August 2015, even when Mr. Trump exhibits up, although his presence would virtually definitely increase curiosity.

“President Trump is rankings gold, and everybody acknowledges that,” stated Steven Cheung, the Trump marketing campaign’s communications director.

Mr. Trump has tried to make use of his leverage to get friendlier protection. Throughout his dinner with the 2 Fox executives, Mr. Wallace and Ms. Scott, Mr. Trump needled them concerning the community’s protection of him. He instructed them he was skeptical that Mr. Murdoch — whom Mr. Trump has recognized for many years — was not dictating the daytime political protection that the previous president discovered egregious.

Mr. Trump, who has typically complained about what he contends is Fox’s glowing protection of Gov. Ron DeSantis, dismissed a latest interview Mr. Baier performed with Mr. DeSantis as “mushy.” Mr. Trump additionally instructed the Fox executives he couldn’t imagine that they had fired Mr. Carlson.

Mr. Baier, who helped average Mr. Trump’s first-ever political debate in August 2015 and has golfed with him, has a sophisticated relationship with the previous president.

Mr. Baier, who will co-host Wednesday’s debate with Martha MacCallum, interviewed Mr. Trump in June, an encounter Mr. Trump first referred to as “honest” however then complained was “unfriendly.” That change of coronary heart got here after information protection identified the hurt Mr. Trump could have triggered himself legally along with his solutions about issues associated to one of many federal circumstances towards him.

A Fox Information spokeswoman, Irena Briganti, stated the community “appears to be like ahead to internet hosting the primary debate of the Republican presidential main season providing viewers an unmatched alternative to study extra concerning the candidates’ positions on quite a lot of points which is important to the electoral course of.”

‘Perhaps I Ought to Simply Go’

Mr. Trump’s high advisers oppose his participation within the debate to keep away from giving his rivals an opportunity to raise themselves at his expense and shut the vast hole between them within the polls.

However till earlier this previous week, Mr. Trump was nonetheless privately toying with the concept of attending. In a single dialog, Mr. Trump had stated, “Perhaps I ought to simply go,” in accordance with an individual with information of the decision.

The previous president has been quizzing confidants these days about whether or not he ought to debate. He has fixated on former Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, who is predicted to be his harshest critic on the stage. And he has expressed a very intense disdain for the low-polling former governor of Arkansas, Asa Hutchinson, suggesting privately that it might be virtually insulting to share a stage with him, in accordance with an individual who spoke to Mr. Trump.

Senior members of Mr. Trump’s staff — Chris LaCivita, Jason Miller and Mr. Cheung — all plan to attend the controversy. The Trump marketing campaign has organized for distinguished surrogates, together with members of Congress, to go to the “spin room” after the controversy to make Mr. Trump’s case.

However as of Friday, Mr. Trump appeared to have misplaced curiosity in attending the controversy, in accordance with folks with information of his considering. And he’s now planning to try to upstage the occasion by collaborating within the interview with Mr. Carlson, although the precise timing and on-line platform stay unclear.

Mr. Baier and Ms. MacCallum plan to make Mr. Trump a significant determine within the two-hour program — whether or not he exhibits up or not.

The Fox staff has ready inquiries to ask Trump rivals about his most up-to-date felony indictment, which was handed down by a grand jury in Georgia. They’re additionally contemplating integrating video of Mr. Trump into their questioning, in accordance with folks acquainted with the planning.

The questions will start instantly. Candidates is not going to be allowed to make opening statements. They are going to, nonetheless, be allotted 45-second closing statements. Every reply will likely be restricted to 1 minute, with a sound like a resort entrance desk’s bell alerting candidates that their time has expired. (Fox has retired the doorbell-like chime it used within the final debates after it despatched some canines into barking suits.)

In contrast to when Mr. Trump skipped a Fox debate in Iowa in January 2016, simply earlier than the caucuses there, Fox has had extra time to organize for Mr. Trump’s absence.

This 12 months, the Republican Nationwide Committee up to date its guidelines to require candidates to signal a pledge no later than 48 hours earlier than the controversy, together with commitments to help the get together’s nominee no matter who it’s and to not take part in any future debates not sanctioned by the R.N.C.

Mr. Trump has not signed the pledge. R.N.C. officers have instructed those that no candidate, together with Mr. Trump, will likely be allowed onstage with out signing it. However Mr. Trump is much from principled on the matter. He has already signed an analogous pledge vowing to “usually imagine in” and “intend to help the nominees and platform” of the G.O.P. in 2024 with the intention to qualify for the South Carolina main poll, in accordance with a celebration official within the state.

In 2016, Fox didn’t know till the final minute attainable that he was not going to point out up. And even as soon as the controversy began, the hosts and producers have been bracing for the chance that he would possibly arrive in the course of the printed and demand to be allowed on the stage.