Intelligence Suggests Professional-Ukrainian Group Sabotaged Pipelines, U.S. Officers Say

WASHINGTON — New intelligence reviewed by U.S. officers suggests {that a} pro-Ukrainian group carried out the assault on the Nord Stream pipelines final 12 months, a step towards figuring out duty for an act of sabotage that has confounded investigators on either side of the Atlantic for months.

U.S. officers mentioned that that they had no proof President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine or his high lieutenants have been concerned within the operation, or that the perpetrators have been performing on the route of any Ukrainian authorities officers.

The brazen assault on the pure fuel pipelines, which hyperlink Russia to Western Europe, fueled public hypothesis about who was responsible, from Moscow to Kyiv and London to Washington, and it has remained one of the consequential unsolved mysteries of Russia’s year-old warfare in Ukraine.

Ukraine and its allies have been seen by some officers as having essentially the most logical potential motive to assault the pipelines. They’ve opposed the undertaking for years, calling it a nationwide safety menace as a result of it will enable Russia to promote fuel extra simply to Europe.

Ukrainian authorities and navy intelligence officers say that they had no position within the assault and have no idea who carried it out. After this text was revealed, Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior adviser to Mr. Zelensky, posted on Twitter that Ukraine “has nothing to do with the Baltic Sea mishap.” He added that he had no details about pro-Ukrainian “sabotage teams.”

U.S. officers mentioned there was a lot they didn’t know concerning the perpetrators and their affiliations. The evaluation of newly collected intelligence suggests they have been opponents of President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, however doesn’t specify the members of the group, or who directed or paid for the operation.

U.S. officers declined to reveal the character of the intelligence, the way it was obtained or any particulars of the energy of the proof it comprises. They’ve mentioned that there are not any agency conclusions about it, leaving open the likelihood that the operation might need been performed off the books by a proxy power with connections to the Ukrainian authorities or its safety providers.

Some preliminary U.S. and European hypothesis centered on potential Russian culpability, particularly given its prowess in undersea operations, although it’s unclear what motivation the Kremlin would have in sabotaging the pipelines provided that they’ve been an vital income and a way for Moscow to exert affect over Europe. One estimate put the price of repairing the pipelines beginning at about $500 million. U.S. officers say they haven’t discovered any proof of involvement by the Russian authorities within the assault.

Officers who’ve reviewed the intelligence mentioned they believed the saboteurs have been probably Ukrainian or Russian nationals, or some mixture of the 2. U.S. officers mentioned no American or British nationals have been concerned.

The pipelines have been ripped aside by deep sea explosions in September, in what U.S. officers described on the time as an act of sabotage. European officers have publicly mentioned they imagine the operation that focused Nord Stream was most likely state sponsored, presumably due to the sophistication with which the perpetrators planted and detonated the explosives on the ground of the Baltic Sea with out being detected. U.S. officers haven’t acknowledged publicly that they imagine the operation was sponsored by a state.

The explosives have been probably planted with the assistance of skilled divers who didn’t look like working for navy or intelligence providers, U.S. officers who’ve reviewed the brand new intelligence mentioned. However it’s potential that the perpetrators acquired specialised authorities coaching up to now.

Officers mentioned there have been nonetheless huge gaps in what U.S. spy companies and their European companions knew about what transpired. However officers mentioned it would represent the primary important result in emerge from a number of carefully guarded investigations, the conclusions of which might have profound implications for the coalition supporting Ukraine.

Any suggestion of Ukrainian involvement, whether or not direct or oblique, might upset the fragile relationship between Ukraine and Germany, souring help amongst a German public that has swallowed excessive vitality costs within the identify of solidarity.

U.S. officers who’ve been briefed on the intelligence are divided about how a lot weight to placed on the brand new info. All of them spoke on situation of anonymity to debate categorized intelligence and issues of delicate diplomacy.

U.S. officers mentioned the brand new intelligence reporting has elevated their optimism that American spy companies and their companions in Europe can discover extra info, which might enable them to succeed in a agency conclusion concerning the perpetrators. It’s unclear how lengthy that course of will take. American officers just lately mentioned the intelligence with their European counterparts, who’ve taken the lead in investigating the assault.

A spokeswoman for the C.I.A. declined to remark. A spokesman for the White Home’s Nationwide Safety Council referred questions concerning the pipelines to the European authorities, who’ve been conducting their very own investigations.

After this report was revealed, Russia attacked the credibility of the intelligence, complaining that it had been prevented from participating within the investigations. “That is clearly a coordinated unfold of disinformation within the media,” Dmitry S. Peskov, a Kremlin spokesman, advised the state-backed Sputnik information company.

Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2, as the 2 pipelines are identified, stretch 760 miles from the northwest coast of Russia to Lubmin in northeast Germany. The primary price greater than $12 billion to construct and was accomplished in 2011.

Nord Stream 2 price barely lower than the primary pipeline and was accomplished in 2021, over objections from officers in america, Britain, Poland and Ukraine, amongst others, who warned that it will improve German reliance on Russian fuel. Throughout a future diplomatic disaster between the West and Russia, these officers argued, Moscow might blackmail Berlin by threatening to curtail fuel provides, on which the Germans had depended closely, particularly throughout the winter months. (Germany has weaned itself off reliance on Russian fuel over the previous 12 months.)

Early final 12 months, President Biden, after assembly with Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany on the White Home, mentioned Mr. Putin’s resolution about whether or not to assault Ukraine would decide the destiny of Nord Stream 2. “If Russia invades, which means tanks and troops crossing the border of Ukraine once more, then there will likely be now not a Nord Stream 2,” Mr. Biden mentioned. “We’ll convey an finish to it.”

When requested precisely how that will be completed, Mr. Biden cryptically mentioned, “I promise you we’ll have the ability to do it.”

A pair weeks later, Mr. Scholz introduced that his authorities would block the Nord Stream 2 pipeline from turning into operational. Two days after that, Russia launched the much-anticipated invasion.

Because the explosions alongside the pipelines in September, there was rampant hypothesis about what transpired on the ocean ground close to the Danish island of Bornholm.

Poland and Ukraine instantly accused Russia of planting the explosives, however they supplied no proof.

Russia, in flip, accused Britain of finishing up the operation — additionally with out proof. Russia and Britain have denied any involvement within the explosions.

Final month, the investigative journalist Seymour Hersh revealed an article on the publication platform Substack concluding that america carried out the operation on the route of Mr. Biden. In making his case, Mr. Hersh cited the president’s preinvasion menace to “convey an finish” to Nord Stream 2, and related statements by different senior U.S. officers.

U.S. officers say Mr. Biden and his high aides didn’t authorize a mission to destroy the Nord Stream pipelines, and so they say there was no U.S. involvement.

Any findings that put blame on Kyiv or Ukrainian proxies might immediate a backlash in Europe and make it more durable for the West to take care of a united entrance in help of Ukraine.

U.S. officers and intelligence companies acknowledge that they’ve restricted visibility into Ukrainian decision-making.

Regardless of Ukraine’s deep dependence on america for navy, intelligence and diplomatic help, Ukrainian officers will not be at all times clear with their American counterparts about their navy operations, particularly these in opposition to Russian targets behind enemy traces. These operations have annoyed U.S. officers, who imagine that they haven’t measurably improved Ukraine’s place on the battlefield, however have risked alienating European allies and widening the warfare.

The operations which have unnerved america included a strike in early August on Russia’s Saki Air Base on the western coast of Crimea, a truck bombing in October that destroyed a part of the Kerch Strait Bridge, which hyperlinks Russia to Crimea, and drone strikes in December geared toward Russian navy bases in Ryazan and Engels, about 300 miles past the Ukrainian border.

However there have been different acts of sabotage and violence of extra ambiguous provenance that U.S. intelligence companies have had a more durable time attributing to Ukrainian safety providers.

A type of was a automobile bomb close to Moscow in August that killed Daria Dugina, the daughter of a outstanding Russian nationalist.

Kyiv denied any involvement however U.S. intelligence companies ultimately got here to imagine that the killing was approved by what officers known as “components” of the Ukrainian authorities. In response to the discovering, the Biden administration privately rebuked the Ukrainians and warned them in opposition to taking related actions.

The explosions that ruptured the Nord Stream pipelines passed off 5 weeks after Ms. Dugina’s killing. After the Nord Stream operation, there was hushed hypothesis — and fear — in Washington that elements of the Ukrainian authorities might need been concerned in that operation as properly.

The brand new intelligence supplied no proof thus far of the Ukrainian authorities’s complicity within the assault on the pipelines, and U.S. officers say the Biden administration’s stage of belief in Mr. Zelensky and his senior nationwide safety group has been steadily growing.

Days after the explosion, Denmark, Sweden and Germany started their very own separate investigations into the Nord Stream operation.

Intelligence and regulation enforcement companies on either side of the Atlantic have had problem acquiring concrete proof about what occurred on the ocean ground within the hours, days and weeks earlier than the explosions.

The pipelines themselves weren’t carefully monitored, by both business or authorities sensors. Furthermore, discovering the vessel or vessels concerned has been sophisticated by the truth that the explosions passed off in a closely trafficked space.

That mentioned, investigators have many results in pursue.

In response to a European lawmaker briefed late final 12 months by his nation’s major overseas intelligence service, investigators have been gathering details about an estimated 45 “ghost ships” whose location transponders weren’t on or weren’t working after they handed by way of the realm, presumably to cloak their actions.

The lawmaker was additionally advised that greater than 1,000 kilos of “navy grade” explosives have been utilized by the perpetrators.

Spokespeople for the Danish authorities had no rapid remark. Spokespeople for the German authorities declined to remark.

Mats Ljungqvist, a senior prosecutor main Sweden’s investigation, advised The New York Occasions late final month that his nation’s hunt for the perpetrators was persevering with.

“It’s my job to search out those that blew up Nord Stream. To assist me, I’ve our nation’s Safety Service,” Mr. Ljungqvist mentioned. “Do I feel it was Russia that blew up Nord Stream? I by no means thought so. It’s not logical. However as within the case of a homicide, you need to be open to all prospects.”

Reporting was contributed by Rebecca R. Ruiz, Erika Solomon, Melissa Eddy, Michael Schwirtz and Andrew E. Kramer.