Is the ‘Modi Magic’ Waning in Karnataka State? – The Diplomat

Meeting elections within the southern state of Karnataka subsequent week are a vital faceoff between the ruling Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Occasion (BJP) and the challenger Congress, within the run-up to the final elections of 2024. The battle for Karnataka, dwelling to India’s Silicon Valley, is witnessing a fierce struggle between the 2 nationwide events.

The BJP is trying to struggle off anti-incumbency and retain its grip on its solely bastion in southern India, whereas a resurgent Congress social gathering is attempting to make sure that it converts its greatest political alternative to a much-needed electoral victory. Karnataka will vote to find out the destiny of 224 seats within the state meeting on Could 10 with outcomes being declared on Could 13.

So necessary is that this election for the destiny of the BJP that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has flown down from New Delhi to the capital, Bengaluru, a number of instances and is campaigning aggressively within the state. He’s addressing 15 rallies and street exhibits in a span of six days. The BJP is hoping that Modi’s charisma will overshadow the corruption allegations dogging the federal government of Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai.

In actual fact, the opposition Congress has pegged its marketing campaign on ousting the “40 p.c Sarkara” (40 p.c fee authorities). Contractors within the state had held a press convention alleging that BJP leaders and officers are demanding bribes that quantity to 40 p.c of the tender quantity for state-funded infrastructural initiatives.

Corruption and inflation are the burning points on this election, and the Congress social gathering is cashing in on it. For a change, the beleaguered Congress cadre and leaders resemble a battle-ready unit.

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Rahul Gandhi’s current lengthy march, the Bharat Jodo Yatra, which coated 511 kilometers in Karnataka alone, has enthused the rank and file of the Congress. For the much-experienced Congress social gathering veteran Mallikarjun Kharge, who grew to become social gathering president lately, a Congress victory in his dwelling state Karnataka is essential. Not surprisingly Kharge has been intently monitoring the social gathering’s marketing campaign and is eager that Congress win with a transparent majority of 150 seats.

By the way, Rahul Gandhi’s current disqualification as a Member of Parliament, which is now being challenged within the courts, doesn’t determine wherever within the Congress electoral marketing campaign.

Sadly for the BJP, the whole lot that labored for the social gathering up to now appears to have gone awry. Its much-vaunted declare of working a “double-engine authorities,” i.e., BJP in energy on the middle and the state stage, has evidently not labored.

Disgruntled senior leaders like Jagadish Shettar, who stop the BJP  after being sidelined and joined the Congress, have added to the BJP’s woes. Shettar, a pacesetter of the highly effective Lingayat neighborhood, has vowed revenge. To manage the injury, the BJP was pressured to name again one other of its miffed leaders, former chief minister B.S. Yeddyurappa.

Furthermore, the BJP’s communal polarization and anti-Muslim rhetoric, which helped it throughout the state up to now, now appears to be resonating primarily in coastal Karnataka, a stronghold of the BJP and its ideological mentor, the Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS).

It was right here that the Bommai authorities’s controversial hijab ban in faculties and faculties, barring hijab-wearing Muslim woman college students from attending courses, was set in movement. The BJP has not raked up the problem in its statewide ballot marketing campaign so far. Nevertheless, it can favorably influence and affect its loyal voters within the coastal area and additional consolidate its stranglehold over the constituencies there.

Left with little to speak about by way of achievements throughout its time period, the BJP has strategically began elevating an emotive concern for religious Hindus – the monkey god Hanuman. Bajrang Dal (Brigade of Hanuman) is the youth wing of the Vishwa Hindu Parishad, one of many associates of the RSS. Bajrang Dal’s youth cadres are sometimes within the information for inciting violence within the title of Hindutva.

So when the Congress in its manifesto acknowledged that it might ban the Bajrang Dal, the BJP and Modi promptly latched onto it, claiming that the Congress had “insulted” Hanuman and his devotees. The difficulty resonates within the state since Hampi in Karnataka is believed to be the birthplace of Hanuman.

Within the final 5 years, Karnataka has had three chief ministers. The 14-month tenure of H.D. Kumaraswamy of the Janata Dal-Secular with Congress as an alliance accomplice was adopted by a change of presidency. BJP strongman Yeddyurappa served as chief minister for 2 years. In 2021, he was unceremoniously eliminated by the BJP management and changed with the extra pliant Bommai.

With its promise of excellent governance not clicking with the plenty, the BJP has resorted to ballot guarantees on divisive problems with implementing the Uniform Civil Code for Karnataka, which might introduce uniform legal guidelines for all, changing the prevailing private non secular legal guidelines for Hindus, Muslims, Christians, and so forth. in areas comparable to marriage, start, and loss of life. Muslims represent almost 13 p.c of the inhabitants in Karnataka.

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The Congress social gathering, however, seems to be extra poll-ready than ordinary, with even its senior leaders, state unit president D. Okay. Shivakumar, and former Congress Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, usually at loggerheads with one another, now placing up a united entrance.

The Congress has promised developmental programs for the state, together with textile hubs, IT parks, irrigation initiatives, a Western Ghat coverage for atmosphere safety, and extra employment alternatives. In its manifesto, the social gathering has additionally promised to deal with the visitors woes and civic issues plaguing Bengaluru.

Other than this, the Congress has promised an unemployment allowance for graduates, 200 items of free electrical energy for households, free bus journey for girls, a month-to-month allowance for women-headed households, and 10 kilograms of rice per particular person for Beneath Poverty Line (BPL) households each month.

The BJP too has introduced an inventory of freebies to entice voters. These embody half a liter of milk and 5 kilograms of millet per BPL household each month.  It has additionally promised three free cooking gasoline cylinders yearly for all BPL households.

Determined to win a second time period, the BJP introduced earlier this yr a rise in reservations in authorities jobs and admissions in instructional establishments for the highly effective Lingayat and Vokkaliga communities. The Bommai authorities did this by scrapping the prevailing 4 p.c reservation for Muslims and shifting the neighborhood to the Economically Weaker Sections class. Expectedly, Congress has promised to revive the 4 p.c quota for Muslims if it returns to energy.

Considerably, each nationwide events are hoping that the rejigging of the caste reservation issue will usher in wealthy electoral dividends for his or her respective events.

Additionally within the reckoning is the regional social gathering, the JD-S, which has help amongst Vokkaligas in southern Karnataka. Analysts say that the social gathering might emerge a kingmaker within the occasion of a hung state meeting.

As one BJP chief disclosed to The Diplomat, the social gathering is hoping that Modi’s whirlwind marketing campaign within the ultimate week earlier than voting will flip the tide of their favor. For the BJP, profitable Karnataka is crucial to retain its foothold in south India.

Whereas a combative Congress is exhorting folks to oust the corrupt BJP authorities, it has additionally began an aggressive poster marketing campaign “PayCM” with the face of Chief Minister Bommai on it. Congress’ Priyanka Gandhi Vadra additionally labeled Modi the “CryPM.”

At an election rally, Vadra mentioned, “The Prime Minister doesn’t care concerning the struggles of individuals and as an alternative comes crying to you to achieve sympathy.” Earlier, Modi had alleged that he had been abused  “91 instances” by the Opposition.

The BJP is on the defensive; opinion polls predict a Congress victory in Karnataka

However the BJP has not given up and is resorting to intimidation to win votes. House Minister Amit Shah threatened that there can be communal riots if Congress wins.

Within the phrases of Congress Common Secretary Jairam Ramesh, ought to the Congress emerge victorious, will probably be a “booster dose” for the social gathering because it gears up for elections in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh later this yr. Extra importantly, Congress will now not be perceived as a spent pressure however as a pressure to reckon with, presumably even main the opposition ranks within the battle to oust BJP nationwide in 2024.